Barack Obama or John McCain

[Evan Burton]

Sorry - Melbourne Cup day in Oz also happens to be the final day / nomination day / whatever of the DNC?

[Mark Stapleton]

It took the best part of 200 years for the law to catch up. In Barack Obama's candidacy we are now learning how far America's political culture has come in this regard and how far it still has to go. Because, for all the misty-eyed liberal talk of him ushering in a post-racial era, the past few weeks have seen Obama fighting not just for the nomination but for his patriotic legitimacy. Constantly questioning his national loyalty and obfuscating his religious affiliation, both the media and his opponents have sought to cast him not only as anti-American but un-American and at times even non-American. His bid to transcend race appears to be crashing on the rocks of racism.

"Race is intertwined with a broader notion that he is not one of us," Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Centre, told the New York Times. Pew conducted an extensive examination of voter attitudes, particularly among Democrats who have an unfavourable view of Obama. "They react negatively to people who are seen as different."

The point here is not whether white people are prepared to vote for him. First, they clearly are. Of the 10 whitest states to have voted so far, Obama has won nine. And there are countless reasons why people don't back him that have nothing to do with race - not least that they prefer another candidate on their merits.

At issue is the insidious and racist manner in which his candidacy is now being framed as that of a nefarious, foreign interloper whose allegiance to his country is inherently inauthentic and instinctively suspect.

Some of these charges have long emerged from familiar and predictable places. As early as last year, Rupert Murdoch's Fox News falsely claimed that he had attended an Islamist madrasa while a young boy in Indonesia. When rightwing radio hosts refer to him they generally emphasise and repeat his middle name - Hussein - even though Obama rarely uses it.

But soon these attacks shifted from the political margins to the mainstream. During the recent ABC debate, Obama was grilled about his refusal to wear an American flag tiepin. One of the moderators asked Obama of his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright: "You do believe he's as patriotic as you are?"

Having given up on the African-American vote, the Clintons have clearly decided that it makes more electoral sense to collude with these attacks than it does to raise the tenor of the discussion and challenge them. During the ABC debate, Hillary applauded the line of questioning. "You know, these are problems, I think these are issues that are legitimate and should be explored."

Being foreign, Muslim or unpatriotic should not be treated as slurs. But in a post 9/11 framework, the Clintons know full well how these allusions will be understood and what the consequences might be. When asked whether Obama was a Muslim, Hillary said that he wasn't: "There is nothing to base that on - as far as I know."

Three days after Obama made his landmark speech on race, Bill Clinton said of a potential match-up between Hillary Clinton and McCain: "I think it would be a great thing if we had an election year where you had two people who loved this country and were devoted to the interest of this country. And people could actually ask themselves who is right on these issues, instead of all this other stuff that always seems to intrude itself on our politics." The implication was that Obama doesn't love his country and all this "racial" stuff is just getting in the way.

All this does have an effect. By February, 80% of Americans had heard rumours that Obama was Muslim. Even after the furore over the Rev Wright, one in 10 Democrats still believed this. A recent Pew poll showed that the only character trait on which Obama loses to Clinton is patriotism. Exit polls in Pennsylvania revealed that 18% of Democrats said that race mattered to them in this contest - and just 63% of them said that they would support Obama in a general election.

Unable to beat Obama on delegates and still unlikely to beat him in the popular vote, Hillary Clinton has just one strategy left - to persuade superdelegates that Obama is unelectable. She has tried branding him as inexperienced and slick-tongued, and neither of those have worked. At this stage she has just one argument left: his race. For several months now, her aides have been whispering to whoever would listen that America would never elect a black candidate. In desperation, some are now raising their voices.

But their accusations are not only cynical - by most accounts they also seem to be wrong. It seems they have underestimated the potential of the American electorate. Polls show that in the states won with less than a five-point margin in 2004 Obama does far better than Clinton against McCain.

The problem is not that Hillary Clinton is still in the race. She has every right to be. It is that she is running the kind of race that she is. Having failed to convince voters of the viability of her own candidacy, she is now committed to proving the unviability of his.

Hillary once said it takes a village to raise a child. Now she seems determined to destroy the village in order to save it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20...laryclinton.usa

Thanks for this important piece, Gary.

HRC is revealing her character and few people see it. She's already behaving like a dictator who won't accept the verdict of the voters. I haven't seen a US politician lusting for power like this before.

If she becomes #44, it's a worse result than McCain, imo. This is despite the fact that the Republicans are more right wing than the Democrats. HRC doesn't have a shred of integrity while McCain has some.

She has the same duplicitous character as LBJ and she's smart enough to realise that anyone who follows Bush will look good, at least for a while. She would be the final proof that America's political system has failed--and needs urgent change.

[Christopher Hall]

It took the best part of 200 years for the law to catch up. In Barack Obama's candidacy we are now learning how far America's political culture has come in this regard and how far it still has to go. Because, for all the misty-eyed liberal talk of him ushering in a post-racial era, the past few weeks have seen Obama fighting not just for the nomination but for his patriotic legitimacy. Constantly questioning his national loyalty and obfuscating his religious affiliation, both the media and his opponents have sought to cast him not only as anti-American but un-American and at times even non-American. His bid to transcend race appears to be crashing on the rocks of racism.

"Race is intertwined with a broader notion that he is not one of us," Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Centre, told the New York Times. Pew conducted an extensive examination of voter attitudes, particularly among Democrats who have an unfavourable view of Obama. "They react negatively to people who are seen as different."

The point here is not whether white people are prepared to vote for him. First, they clearly are. Of the 10 whitest states to have voted so far, Obama has won nine. And there are countless reasons why people don't back him that have nothing to do with race - not least that they prefer another candidate on their merits.

At issue is the insidious and racist manner in which his candidacy is now being framed as that of a nefarious, foreign interloper whose allegiance to his country is inherently inauthentic and instinctively suspect.

Some of these charges have long emerged from familiar and predictable places. As early as last year, Rupert Murdoch's Fox News falsely claimed that he had attended an Islamist madrasa while a young boy in Indonesia. When rightwing radio hosts refer to him they generally emphasise and repeat his middle name - Hussein - even though Obama rarely uses it.

But soon these attacks shifted from the political margins to the mainstream. During the recent ABC debate, Obama was grilled about his refusal to wear an American flag tiepin. One of the moderators asked Obama of his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright: "You do believe he's as patriotic as you are?"

Having given up on the African-American vote, the Clintons have clearly decided that it makes more electoral sense to collude with these attacks than it does to raise the tenor of the discussion and challenge them. During the ABC debate, Hillary applauded the line of questioning. "You know, these are problems, I think these are issues that are legitimate and should be explored."

Being foreign, Muslim or unpatriotic should not be treated as slurs. But in a post 9/11 framework, the Clintons know full well how these allusions will be understood and what the consequences might be. When asked whether Obama was a Muslim, Hillary said that he wasn't: "There is nothing to base that on - as far as I know."

Three days after Obama made his landmark speech on race, Bill Clinton said of a potential match-up between Hillary Clinton and McCain: "I think it would be a great thing if we had an election year where you had two people who loved this country and were devoted to the interest of this country. And people could actually ask themselves who is right on these issues, instead of all this other stuff that always seems to intrude itself on our politics." The implication was that Obama doesn't love his country and all this "racial" stuff is just getting in the way.

All this does have an effect. By February, 80% of Americans had heard rumours that Obama was Muslim. Even after the furore over the Rev Wright, one in 10 Democrats still believed this. A recent Pew poll showed that the only character trait on which Obama loses to Clinton is patriotism. Exit polls in Pennsylvania revealed that 18% of Democrats said that race mattered to them in this contest - and just 63% of them said that they would support Obama in a general election.

Unable to beat Obama on delegates and still unlikely to beat him in the popular vote, Hillary Clinton has just one strategy left - to persuade superdelegates that Obama is unelectable. She has tried branding him as inexperienced and slick-tongued, and neither of those have worked. At this stage she has just one argument left: his race. For several months now, her aides have been whispering to whoever would listen that America would never elect a black candidate. In desperation, some are now raising their voices.

But their accusations are not only cynical - by most accounts they also seem to be wrong. It seems they have underestimated the potential of the American electorate. Polls show that in the states won with less than a five-point margin in 2004 Obama does far better than Clinton against McCain.

The problem is not that Hillary Clinton is still in the race. She has every right to be. It is that she is running the kind of race that she is. Having failed to convince voters of the viability of her own candidacy, she is now committed to proving the unviability of his.

Hillary once said it takes a village to raise a child. Now she seems determined to destroy the village in order to save it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20...laryclinton.usa

Thanks for this important piece, Gary.

HRC is revealing her character and few people see it. She's already behaving like a dictator who won't accept the verdict of the voters. I haven't seen a US politician lusting for power like this before.

This is a great analogy and an insight as to how she would lead, if she were elected. She is audacious, if nothing else. It's rather funny that her campaign's biggest hurdle has been to try to humanize her.

If she becomes #44, it's a worse result than McCain, imo. This is despite the fact that the Republicans are more right wing than the Democrats. HRC doesn't have a shred of integrity while McCain has some.

You are being charitable to McCain. He exhibited exemplary character while he was in the Navy, but he is currently as bought and paid for as HRC.

She has the same duplicitous character as LBJ and she's smart enough to realise that anyone who follows Bush will look good, at least for a while. She would be the final proof that America's political system has failed--and needs urgent change.

We are cerainly at a loss for leaders. We have an abundance of opportunits at a time when we really need leadership.

[John Simkin]

Spike Lee: "Jeremiah Wright needs to be quiet. If he loves Obama he needs to shut up right now. It makes me question his motives for talking. I'm starting to wonder whether somebody has been contributing to the building funds of his church".

[J. Raymond Carroll]

Hillary Obliterated in North Carolina

51-49 in Indiana right now

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Barack Obama swept to victory in the North Carolina primary Tuesday night and declared he was closing in on the Democratic presidential nomination. Hillary Rodham Clinton clung to a narrow Indiana lead, struggling to halt her rival's march into history.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080507/D90GICCG1.html

[J. Raymond Carroll]

DOES SHE WITHDRAW TODAY AFTER HUMILIATING DEFEAT IN NORTH CAROLINA?

IS SHE BROKE (AGAIN)?

The advisers and allies to Mrs. Clinton said in interviews on Tuesday night that her victory in Indiana — even by less than 2 percentage points — made it less certain that she would withdraw from the race. (Her advisers had said a loss would likely lead her to quit.) Yet these supporters said that North Carolina had come to be seen as a major test in the eyes of the Clintons and their aides, and the severity of her loss to Mr. Obama there was dispiriting.

They were also girding for the possibility of more bad news. Her campaign is deep in debt and believed to be near broke, and her advisers made the unusual move on Tuesday night of refusing to confirm or deny whether Mrs. Clinton had made a loan to her campaign to keep it afloat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/us/polit...amp;oref=slogin

Edited May 7, 2008 by J. Raymond Carroll

[Christopher Hall]

Spike Lee: "Jeremiah Wright needs to be quiet. If he loves Obama he needs to shut up right now. It makes me question his motives for talking. I'm starting to wonder whether somebody has been contributing to the building funds of his church".

So now we know what Senator Robert Byrd, D - W Va, is doing these days.

[Christopher Hall]

Spike Lee: "Jeremiah Wright needs to be quiet. If he loves Obama he needs to shut up right now. It makes me question his motives for talking. I'm starting to wonder whether somebody has been contributing to the building funds of his church".

More racism from Team Clinton: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05...-white-support/

Be sure to watch the video in which Paul Begalla talks about "eggheads and african-americans".

This internecine Democratic race-baiting is actually amazing to watch.

It looks like the Clintons have worn out their welcome within the black community.

At this point, there is nothing that HRC and her minions won't say to try to stay alive.

I hope that Obama doesn't consider HRC as a running mate, because I don't want her near the White House again.

[Mark Stapleton]

I hope that Obama doesn't consider HRC as a running mate, because I don't want her near the White House again.

This is now the big issue, as I think HRC's campaign is over. Maybe she's clinging on like a rabid bulldog to get herself onto a joint ticket.

I agree this would be a terrible option, Chris. It delivers the dreaded Dealey Plaza option to the elites and, coincidentally, HRC has already glowingly invoked the memory of Lyin' Lyndon during the nomination campaign.

Edited May 8, 2008 by Mark Stapleton

[Michael Hogan]

I have deliberately avoided watching election-related coverage on television, and I have tried to minimizing reading about it online.

Nonetheless, am I the only one thinking that there has been a quantum shift in momentum toward HRC and away from Obama?

Obama seems to be in absolute free-fall.

The Indiana race is tied (as per the RPC average), but he is up by 12 in NC.

Whatever average that was, it turned out to be accurate.

Obama picks up superdelegates in New Jersey, Oregon: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jvzT8ke...64A_AwD90I4B3G2

Look for an ugly and divisive campaign with surrogates from both candidates (McCain & Obama) doing most of the dirty work.

The negative campaigning in the primaries will seem rather benign compared to what's coming soon: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNew...841830720080509

RNC turns up the heat on Obama: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypoli...t-on-obama.html

Edited May 9, 2008 by Michael Hogan

[Michael Hogan]

I agree with the general consensus that this will be a very ugly campaign indeed. The RNC swiftboat types are planning racist scare, Obama as crypto-'Islamofascist', Not-Presidential-as-he-wears-no-flag-pin, and other ugly soundbites. The real issues that desperately need to get discussed and voted upon, somehow, never get discussed...now that is the real conspiracy behind the circus of the electoral process.

Team Obama's mettle has been tested by the Clinton group. They've emerged tougher and probably meaner. Obama will get a good bounce at the polls at

convention time. McCain's past record will give his opponent plenty of grist for the mill. Certainly, it's going to seem like a relatively short, but intense contest

compared to the nearly interminable length of the nomination battle. Some major surprises from both sides can be expected.

Rhetoric and semantics will trump most of the real issues.

Look for the candidates' wives and family to undergo intense scrutiny. They're already talking about Cindy McCain's refusal to release her tax returns. There is a lot of pressure

on Michelle Obama to say and do the right things and not slip up. I look for her to play an expanded role as Obama seeks to draw more women back into the fold.

Americans are going to be poll-watchers with new ones coming out almost daily. Race will be discussed and play a major factor. So will age. Who really knows how much

prejudice people take into the voting booth with them?

Regardless of how it goes down, the American public will remain divided racially, socially, economically and ideologically. The media will continue to encourage that.

And despite the illusion of a truly democratic process, fostered by all the individual states and their record turnouts selecting the candidates and a fawning media, whomever

the real power brokers have already decided should be President of the United States will likely be the one taking the oath in January. They have the power to make or break Obama or McCain.

Edited May 9, 2008 by Michael Hogan

[Evan Burton]

WASHINGTON: Barack Obama has left the door open for Hillary Clinton to become his vice-presidential running mate.

Senator Obama said on Thursday that he had not yet wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination, and when he did the process of selecting his running mate would begin.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/hopes-for...0131264441.html

I'm largely uninformed about American politics, but this seems to be the best way forward for a Democratic win.

[William Kelly]

WASHINGTON: Barack Obama has left the door open for Hillary Clinton to become his vice-presidential running mate.

Senator Obama said on Thursday that he had not yet wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination, and when he did the process of selecting his running mate would begin.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/hopes-for...0131264441.html

I'm largely uninformed about American politics, but this seems to be the best way forward for a Democratic win.

My inside sources say that in order to promote national unity, Obama will offer the Vice Presidencey to Jeb Bush.

BK

[Evan Burton]

Whatever happens, I hope the Democrats win. I often agree with the Republicans, but I don't think the US can survive another term of that leadership. oh sure, it won't be Bush, but I think the US needs a change to restore some balance to things.

[Len Colby]

WASHINGTON: Barack Obama has left the door open for Hillary Clinton to become his vice-presidential running mate.

Senator Obama said on Thursday that he had not yet wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination, and when he did the process of selecting his running mate would begin.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/hopes-for...0131264441.html

I'm largely uninformed about American politics, but this seems to be the best way forward for a Democratic win.

Pundits from the New Republic wrote pro and con essays about the “unity ticket” idea. Perhaps I’m biased but I was more persuaded by the anti-unity ticket piece. At the beginning of the campaign my feelings were ‘as long as a Democrat wins I’ll be happy’ but I lost my respect for Hillary due to her campaign tactics. Another problem with the unity ticket is that it would allow McCain to focus more on all the negative stuff she said about Obama.

I presume he will choose a centrist female governor or senator, there are several good options. There are also a few moderate female Republican senators whose politics are probably closer to the Democrats that the bulk of their party these days. If one of them could be persuaded to switch sides it would be a big boost to getting the votes of the all important swing voters in swing states. This relatively small group is often the one that really decides presidential elections.

Pro: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/a...ity-ticket.aspx

Con: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/a...ity-ticket.aspx