It is estimated that a 50% tax band for incomes over £100,000 would raise £5bn. However, Tony Blair argues that it would not raise as much as this as the wealthy would avoid paying this extra tax by exploiting loopholes in the tax system. This seems an amazing thing for any prime minister to say. If that is the case, why don’t the government close those loopholes?
In an interview yesterday Tony Blair said: Every single piece of analysis that has ever been done indicates that… large numbers of those taxpayers… would hire a whole lot of new accountants to do this and that. And actually your tax take would be a lot less.” This is of course the argument that was used by that other conservative prime minister, Margaret Thatcher. However, as Richard Adams points out in an excellent article in today’s Guardian, this is not true. What Blair is referring to is the Laffer Curve This was a theory proposed by the American economist, Arthur Laffer, in 1974. The idea is that growth in tax revenue falls away after a certain point, as higher rates of tax give people less incentive to work and a stronger incentive to evade paying. This argument is very appealing to those right wing politicians who seek to protect the wealth of the rich. However, Laffer never actually stated when this point was reached. What we do know is that he was referring to those tax rates of over 90% that was fairly common in some European countries in the 1970s. He definitely was not talking about a 50% tax band.
As Richard Adams points out, the very rich, already officially live in tax havens. Those earning £100,000 do not have that option. Even someone earning £250,000 a year would only pay an extra £20,000 a year if the top tax band was increased from 40% to 50%. This is not enough to get them to flee the country.
In the last election Tony Blair argued that he was against raising the top rate of income tax because he did not want to force people like David Beckham to leave the country. Britain’s upper rate remains at 40% but Beckham still decided to move to Spain. He does not seem particularly concerned that the top rate of income tax in Spain is 50%.