I posted this on a group called Barack Obama (one million strong for Barack Obama), which appears on the facebook network. Facebook is a network of college and high school students that enables people to keep in touch with each other and to set up and join groups of all sorts. It has become very popular for political campaigns.

Here is the question that I posed,

Do members think that it is possible that Obama is making a strong campaign at the moment, much the same as Kennedy did in 56, to stake a stronger claim to the candidacy the next time it becomes available. Obama is a relative newcomer to the senate, just as Kennedy was in 56. Kennedy did not wish to go on the vice-presidential ballot with Adlai Stevenson because he thought that he would lose and knew that he would have a better chance in 60, being a more experienced senator.

Is it possible for Obama to ascend so quickly through the ranks? Is Obama simply making a strong push this time around, thus sowing his pedigree as a leader in future years. This could be seen as displaying his strength even as a young senator, thus making his campaign next time around much stronger.
This tactic worked for Kennedy, as he beat of Lyndon Johnson for the nomination in 1960. LBJ was known as the best back room negotiator, yet Kennedy managed to beat him due to the image that he had built up around himself.

I would appreciate feedback.
John

A person by the name of Scott replied,

No.... because a Democrat is going to win... which means it would be 2016 b4 he had a CHANCE!

...to which I replied,

Scott,
I think it is early days yet before we can start predicting the result! It really does depend on whether the republican candidate distances himself from Bush. A number of factors have to be taken into account such as, who will run the republican campaign, if the candidate can mobilise the religioug aspect of politics as Bush did, if Giuiliani runs, whether his stance ongay marriage will influence republican voters, what happens with regard to Iran in the next few months.

A lot of factors that we perceive today will change in the coming months. We are still awaiting a new heavy hitting democrat to enter the race and it will only become apparent in a few months whether a new candidate along the lines of Howard Dean comes along to motivate the internet progressive community.

There is a long way to go, but it bodes well that you are optimistic.

John

What do members of this forum think?

John,

I think it should be clear by now that Obama is "in it to win it." However, there is always more to politics than meets the eye.

First of all, think about who the top two candidates are: Barack Obama and John McCain. Both candidates have, in the American tradition, promised tons and tons of change without a lot of specific examples about what that means. Obama has certainly done much better in this regard, but his platform, much like his books, is based on feel-good sayings and emotion rather than concrete facts or plans. McCain, on the other hand, represents an odd mix of "changes" that sound awfully similar to the past 8 years.

Obama worries me because there is so much we don't know about him and because he has continually attracted record-breaking sums of money. There is simply no way that his grassroots college helpers are funding him to the tune of a million dollars a day. Most of his donors come from the usual left-wing suspects, but I still have to wonder what's being promised to them if and when he gets the presidency.

McCain worries me a little more, simply because he's a known quantity. And, by "known quantity," I certainly don't mean the fake "maverick" label that he wears like an old t-shirt. I mean that he is an old insider who married into a mob-ish family[1] that funded his career, and then still made bad decisions once in office[2]. At this stage in his life, rather than make amends for his career as a congressional shill, he seems more inclined to go out with a bang. Given the situation in Iraq, Iran, and possibly South Ossetia, get ready for more of the same neo-con fantasies if he gets the top spot.

I heard a pundit joke that Clinton, Obama, McCain, and Romney all ran such terrible campaigns that all of them were trying to pull a JFK'56 move. That was a funny comment, but I'm concerned that there appears to be no candidate on either/any side with experience + charisma + funding + integrity.

1. http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=57354
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five