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Barack Obama or John McCain


John Simkin

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The running mate is their insurance, of course.

Hope he's not Texan.

My guess is that he will be a she, and she will not be a Texan.

Obama has been endorsed by numerous prominent women politicians, including two women Governors (Washington and Arizona). There may be a third woman governor that I can't recall offhand. America has never had a woman vice-president.

I kinda like Chris Gregoire, governor of Washington state.

http://www.governor.wa.gov/

Gregoire has never had a national profile up to now, but she would become an overnight sensation if chosen as VP and would undoubtedly galvanize women voters across party lines if McCain picks another white male as his running mate.

Of course. A female running mate would be a great idea.

I've never previously heard of her, but from your link Gregoire looks like an ideal choice. Nice priorities. She also has a spooky resemblance to HRC, but younger.

But it could be risky for the powers that be.

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But it could be risky for the powers that be.

Maureen Dowd looks at Hillary as one of "the powers that be" and concludes:

"Hillary could be ready on Day 1 — to make up her Enemies List and banish Overkill Bill to a cubbyhole in the Old Executive Office Building. But it’s Day 2 that I’m really worried about."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/17/opinion/...&ei=5087%0A

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Guest David Guyatt

Democracy is a very fine thing and a concept of which I thoroughly approve. Pity then that it remains only a concept.

So please allow an old and wrinkled cynic to intrude with an uncomfortable and probably unwelcome thought. Whoever gets into the White House will have been anointed by the powers that be. They will be answerable to those powers and will do their bidding.

The country will not be turned over to the common rabble I can assure you.

Yours in cynictude

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Interesting article by Gary Younge on the use of Democratic Party "super delegates".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20...ton.barackobama

Thanks for posting this and thanks to Forum member Gary Younge. Very informative. The problem with the Democrat primaries is very interesting, as far as party politics is concerned. Why did Florida and Michigan insist on holding their contests in January after being warned by the party that their delegates may be disqualified? What was that about? It's a strong indication of internal party instability, imo. The GOP also has problems.

Other posters have claimed there is a grassroots groundswell for Barack Obama. I think there's a real mood for change, not seen in the US in the 20 or so years I've been following US politics. If the superdelegates overrule public opinion and nominate HRC, there'll be widespread bitterness and the grassroots will desert the Democratic Party, imo. If they do that, they will effectively desert the two party system. A fair chunk of the US electorate will realise the current two party system, while providing social and political stability, is not really democratic at all. Making the necessary Constitutional changes might be a problem. A more fragmented political system is not necessarily a bad thing, imo. The current two party system in America is corrupt beyond repair. The fact that 45,000 political lobbyists live in Washington proves it, imo. In Australia, minor parties have held the balance of power in five of the last six Parliaments, and despite our problems with corporate glovepuppet leaders, we don't have the disastrous social, economic and foreign policy problems currently afflicting the US.

However, I think Barack will get the nod. The 'it's time' factor is too strong. How he develops as President will be fascinating, considering the problems he faces. Maybe he'll be the JFK of his generation.

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Europe favours Obama but Britons like Clinton

The French, Italians, Spanish and Germans would “vote” for Barack Obama in the US presidential elections – although the British would prefer Hillary Clinton.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3eeaaa8-dd86-11...?nclick_check=1

Do Brits see Hillary as a reincarnation of Maggie the Iron Lady who led them to the glorious Flaklands/Malvinas war against Argentina ("two bald men fighting over a comb")?

Or is this because the British followed Bush (and Hillary) to war in Iraq when Obama was telling them it was a really dumb idea?

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It is entirely possible I suppose that Brzenski is serving with Obama on a private level -- but I doubt it somehow. Brzezinski remains on the executive committee. The TC was a David Rockefeller creation as witnessed by him being listed as the "founder".

Interesting to see that one of my old bosses, Herve "the Swerve" de Carmoy, is still a prominent Trilat.

I think what we have here are the honest establishment crooks as opposed to the dishonest Texan crooks. I suppose being tucked-up by nice people doesn't feel quite so bad as being robbed by the "crazy bunch" of heartless gunslingers...

But robbed you will be either way.

http://www.trilateral.org/memb.htm

Membership

When the Trilateral Commission was first launched, the plan was for an equal number of members from each of the three regions. The numbers soon began to grow, and ceilings were imposed about 1980. These ceilings have been raised somewhat since then as new countries came to be represented in the groups. The European group, which includes members from Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Cyprus, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, now has a ceiling of 160 members. The ceiling for the North American group is 120, including 20 Canadian members, 13 Mexican members and 87 U.S. members. In 2000, the Japanese group of 85 members expanded to become a Pacific Asian group of 96 members, and includes 57 members from Japan, 15 members from Korea, 8 from Australia and New Zealand, 16 from the original five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). The new Pacific Asian group also includes participants from the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

To help preserve the Commission’s unofficial character, members who take up positions in their national administration give up Trilateral Commission membership. New members are chosen on a national basis. The procedures used for rotation off and for invitation of new members vary from national group to national group. Three chairmen (one from each region), deputy chairmen, and directors constitute the leadership of the Trilateral Commission, along with an Executive Committee including 36 other members. The current full membership list is available by e-mail or by contacting any of the regional offices.

Chairmen, Deputy Chairmen and Directors

North American Chairman: THOMAS S. FOLEY

Partner, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, Washington DC; former U.S. Ambassador to Japan; former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

European Chairman: PETER SUTHERLAND

Chairman, BP p.l.c., London; Chairman, Goldman Sachs International; Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Migrations; former Director General, GATT/WTO, Geneva; former Member of the European Commission; former Attorney General of Ireland

Pacific Asian Chairman: YOTARO KOBAYASHI

Chief Corporate Advisor, Fuji Xerox Co., Ltd., Tokyo

North American Deputy Chairman: ALLAN E. GOTLIEB

Senior Adviser, Bennett Jones LLP, Toronto, ON; Chairman, Sotheby's, Canada; former Canadian Ambassador to the United States

North American Deputy Chairman: LORENZO ZAMBRANO

Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, CEMEX, Monterrey, NL, Mexico

European Deputy Chairman: HERVE DE CARMOY

Chairman, Almatis, Frankfurt-am-Main; former Partner, Rhône Group, New York & Paris; Honorary Chairman, Banque Industrielle et Mobilière Privée, Paris; former Chief Executive, Société Générale de Belgique

European Deputy Chairman: ANDRZEJ OLECHOWSKI

Founder, Civic Platform; former Chairman, Bank Handlowy; former Minister of Foreign Affairs and of Finance, Warsaw

Pacific Asian Deputy Chairman: HAN SUNG-JOO

President, Korea University, Seoul; former Korean Minister for Foreign Affairs; former Korean Ambassador to the United States

Pacific Asian Deputy Chairman: SHIJURO OGATA

Former Deputy Governor, Japan Development Bank; former Deputy Governor for International Relations, Bank of Japan

North American Vice Chairman: JOSEPH S. NYE, JR.

Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; former Dean, John F. Kennedy School of Government; former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs

North American Director: MICHAEL J. O’NEIL

European Director: PAUL RÉVAY

Pacific Asia Director: TADASHI YAMAMOTO

Former North American Chairmen:

PAUL A. VOLCKER (1991-2001) Honorary North American Chairman

DAVID ROCKEFELLER (1977-91) Founder and Honorary North American Chairman

GERARD C. SMITH (1973-77)

Former European Chairmen:

OTTO GRAF LAMBSDORFF (1992-2001) Honorary European Chairman

GEORGES BERTHOIN (1976-92) Honorary European Chairman

MAX KOHNSTAMM (1973-76)

Former Japanese Chairmen:

KIICHI MIYAZAWA, Acting Chairman (1993-97)

AKIO MORITA (1992-93)

ISAMU YAMAxxxxA (1985-92)

TAKESHI WATANABE (1973-85)

Executive Committee

Erik Belfrage, Senior Vice President, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken; Director, Investor AB, Stockholm

C. Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC; former U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs

Georges Berthoin, International Honorary Chairman, European Movement; Honorary Chairman, The Jean Monnet Association; Honorary European Chairman, The Trilateral Commission

Jorge Braga de Macedo, President, Tropical Research Institute, Lisbon; Professor of Economics, Nova University at Lisbon; Chairman, Forum Portugal Global; former Minister of Finance

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Counselor, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC; Robert Osgood Professor of American Foreign Affairs, Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs

François Bujon de l'Estang, Ambassadeur de France; Chairman, Citigroup France, Paris; former Ambassador to the United States

Richard Conroy, Chairman, Conroy Diamonds & Gold, Dublin; Member of Senate, Republic of Ireland

Vladimir Dlouhy, Senior Advisor, ABB; International Advisor, Goldman Sachs; former Czechoslovak Minister of Economy; former Czech Minister of Industry & Trade, Prague

Bill Emmott, former Editor, The Economist, London

Nemesio Fernandez-Cuesta, Executive Director of Upstream, Repsol-YPF; former Chairman, Prensa Española, Madrid

Michael Fuchs, Member of the German Bundestag; former President, National Federation of German Wholesale & Foreign Trade, Berlin

Antonio Garrigues Walker, Chairman, Garrigues Abogados y Asesores Tributarios, Madrid

Toyoo Gyohten, President, The Institute for International Monetary Affairs; Senior Advisor, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, UFJ, Ltd., Tokyo

Stuart Harris, Professor of International Relations, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University; former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Canberra

Carla A. Hills, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Hills & Company, Washington, DC; former U.S. Trade Representative; former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

Karen Elliott House, Writer, Princeton, NJ; Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; former Senior Vice President, Dow Jones & Company, and Publisher, The Wall Street Journal

Mugur Isarescu, Governor, National Bank of Romania, Bucharest; former Prime Minister of Romania

Baron Daniel Janssen, Honorary Chairman, Solvay, Brussels

Béla Kadar, Member of the Hungarian Academy, Budapest; Member of the Monetary Council of the National Bank; President of the Hungarian Economic Association; former Ambassador of Hungary to the O.E.C.D., Paris; former Hungarian Minister of International Economic Relations and Member of Parliament

Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, Deputy Chairman and Senior Independent Non-Executive Director of Royal Dutch Shell; Member of the House of Lords; Director of Rio Tinto, the Scottish American Investment Trust, London; former Secretary General, European Convention, Brussels; former Permanent Under-Secretary of State and Head of the Diplomatic Service, Foreign & Commonwealth Office, London; former British Ambassador to the United States

Sixten Korkman, Managing Director, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) and Finnish Business and Policy Forum (EVA), Helsinki

Count Otto Lambsdorff, Partner, Wessing Lawyers, Düsseldorf; Chairman, Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Berlin; former Member of German Bundestag; Honorary Chairman, Free Democratic Party; former Federal Minister of Economy; former President of the Liberal International; Honorary European Chairman, The Trilateral Commission, Paris

Lee Hong-Koo, Chairman, Seoul Forum for International Affairs; former Prime Minister of Korea; former Korean Ambassador to the United Kingdom and the United States

Marianne Lie, Director General, Norwegian Shipowners Association, Oslo

Cees Maas, Honorary Vice Chairman of the ING Group and former Chief Financial Officer, Amsterdam; former Treasurer of the Dutch Government

Roy MacLaren, former Canadian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom; former Canadian Minister of International Trade; Toronto, ON

Minoru Makihara, Senior Corporate Advisor, Mitsubishi Corporation, Tokyo

Sir Deryck C. Maughan, Managing Director and Chairman, KKR Asia, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., New York, NY; former Vice Chairman, Citigroup

Minoru Murofushi, Counselor, ITOCHU Corporation, Tokyo

Indra K. Nooyi, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, PepsiCo, Inc., Purchase, NY

Yoshio Okawara, President, Institute for International Policy Studies, Tokyo; former Japanese Ambassador to the United States

Susan Rice, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies and Global Economy and Development Programs, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC; former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs; former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for African Affairs, National Security Council

Luis Rubio, President, Center of Research for Development (CIDAC), Mexico City, DF

Silvio Scaglia, Chairman, Fastweb, Milan; former Managing Director, Omnitel

Guido Schmidt-Chiari, Chairman, Supervisory Board, Constantia Group; former Chairman, Creditanstalt Bankverein, Vienna

Carlo Secchi, Professor of European Economic Policy and former Rector, Bocconi University; Vice President, ISPI, Milan; former Member of the Italian Senate and of the European Parliament

Tøger Seidenfaden, Editor-in-Chief, Politiken, Copenhagen

Petar Stoyanov, former President of the Republic of Bulgaria; Member of the Bulgarian Parliament; Chairman, Parliamentary Group of United Democratic Forces; Chairman, Union of Democratic Forces; Sofia

Harri Tiido, Undersecretary for Political Affairs, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tallinn; former Ambassador of Estonia and Head of the Estonian Mission to NATO, Brussels

George Vassiliou, former Head of the Negotiating Team for the Accession of Cyprus to the European Union; former President of the Republic of Cyprus, former Member of Parliament and Leader of United Democrats; Nicosia

Paul Volcker, former Chairman, Wolfensohn & Co., Inc., New York; Frederick H. Schultz Professor Emeritus, International Economic Policy, Princeton University; former Chairman, Board of Governors, U.S. Federal Reserve System; Honorary North American Chairman and former North American Chairman, The Trilateral Commission

Marko Voljc, Chief Executive Officer, K & H Bank, Budapest; former General Manager of Central Europe Directorate, KBC Bank Insurance Holding, Brussels; former Chief Executive Officer, Nova Ljubljanska Banka, Ljubljana

Panagis Vourloumis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Hellenic Tellecommunications Organization (O.T.E.), Athens

Jusuf Wanandi, Vice Chairman, Board of Trustees; Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta

Serge Weinberg, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Accor; Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Weinberg Capital Partners; former Chairman Management Board, Pinault-Printemps-Redoute; former President, Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IRIS), Paris

Heinrich Weiss, Chairman, SMS, Düsseldorf; former Chairman, Federation of German Industries, Berlin

The full membership list is available by e-mail or by contacting any of the regional offices.

It sounds like a defacto Corporate World Government, David. I think they could definitely influence Obama's choice of running mate.

This, after all, is the key question of the thread, imo--despite all the bickering about other issues. They can extract undertakings from him through their leverage now, but when, or if, Obama becomes President, he might develop crazy notions about doing his own thing, like JFK. The running mate is their insurance, of course.

Hope he's not Texan.

So how does the “logic” go here? Brezinski - Obama’s foreign policy advisor, who opposed the Iraq war, is seen as anti-Israel and backed the findings of Messmer (sp?) and Walt - is one of the 45 people on the Trilateral Commission’s executive committee* therefore: a) “they could definitely influence Obama's choice of running mate” and :) he is backed by the CFR**?

I imagine the principle factor in choosing his running mate will be 1) who will best increase his chances of wining the election 2) who is most likely to be a teem player.

*And not one its 9 directors, well not any more at least.

** Yes I know there are various ties between the two groups

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The running mate is their insurance, of course.

Hope he's not Texan.

My guess is that he will be a she, and she will not be a Texan.

Obama has been endorsed by numerous prominent women politicians, including two women Governors (Washington and Arizona). There may be a third woman governor that I can't recall offhand. America has never had a woman vice-president.

I kinda like Chris Gregoire, governor of Washington state.

http://www.governor.wa.gov/

Gregoire has never had a national profile up to now, but she would become an overnight sensation if chosen as VP and would undoubtedly galvanize women voters across party lines if McCain picks another white male as his running mate.

Interestingly both of Washington’s Senators are women as well. So are both of California’s and one of Alaska’s. As for McCain’s VP I’ve heard talk about Condi Rice.

The one problem with Obama is the experience factor. US presidential elections are basically decided by a relatively small number of people, swing votes in swing states. They are by definition moderates (by American standards) and McCain is moderate by Republican standards. My fear is that these swing votes whose views are about equidistant from McCain and Obama will say ‘who do I vote for the guy who’s been in the House and Senate for nearly 30 years and was a navy officer for over 20 or the guy who has been a senator for 4 years after being in the state legislature for a few years and was a community organizer for a few years?’

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The one problem with Obama is the experience factor.

the guy who has been a senator for 4 years after being in the state legislature for a few years and was a community organizer for a few years?’

If Obama can beat Hilary despite HER advantage in experience, then he can beat McCain on the same argument. Its good judgment we are looking for, and McCain voted for the war in Iraq just like Hillary.

Abraham Lincoln, another dark, skinny orator from Illinois, had served only two years in the House of Representatives when he replaced James Buchanan.

Prior to taking office, Buchanan had greater and more varied experience than almost any President ever, yet history has consigned him to far back also-rans. THat skinny orator from Illinois, on the other hand....

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There is a strong possibility that the presidential election will be between Barack Obama and John McCain. If so, who will the conservatives vote for? What about the Christian Right who do not seem to trust McCain. Will there be a third party candidate? Are the American people ready for a black president?

John-

You asked a simple set of questions which deserve a concise reply.

"If so, who will the conservatives vote for?" - Most conservatives will likely vote for McCain. Many of us, however, will vote for a third party candidate. I think that the McCain campaign doesn't realize the extent to which it has lost the conservative base of the Republican Party. It will find out soon enough, though.

"What about the Christian Right who do not seem to trust McCain." I am a Catholic, and thus not a part of the Christian right. I don't listen to Rush, Sean Hannity, or any other right wing/neocon radio. I also don't know much about the polyester Bible-banging, gay-hating preachers who make the television "newsshows", but I think that they and their minions will largely vote for McCain, because they like winning. I would rather lose and be intellectually honest with my vote than vote for a candidate who really doesn't speak for me on many issues, but who has a "R" after his or her name.

"Will there be a third party candidate?" - I sure hope so, preferrably Ron Paul, despite his statements to the contrary. If he doesn't, I will probably vote for the one who appeals to me the most.

"Are the American people ready for a black president?" - Absolutely, and Obama should affirmatively answer this question for you in 9 months.

Chris

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The one problem with Obama is the experience factor.

the guy who has been a senator for 4 years after being in the state legislature for a few years and was a community organizer for a few years?’

If Obama can beat Hilary despite HER advantage in experience, then he can beat McCain on the same argument. Its good judgment we are looking for, and McCain voted for the war in Iraq just like Hillary.

Abraham Lincoln, another dark, skinny orator from Illinois, had served only two years in the House of Representatives when he replaced James Buchanan.

Prior to taking office, Buchanan had greater and more varied experience than almost any President ever, yet history has consigned him to far back also-rans. THat skinny orator from Illinois, on the other hand....

Thats an interesting observation but I don't think it will hold. I had a conversation with my father the other night. He's 78 years old, a retired union man who has never in his life voted anything but Democrat. As a lark I asked him what he thought about the pesidental election. This is usually a fun, and spirited discussion considering I'm a conservative, but this time he shocked me with his answers. He's going McCain...an R for the first time in his life. When I pushed him to explain, his answer was never a Clintion again, and he did not trust Obama's lack of experience. He was left with McCain.

I've got a feeling there are plenty more out there just like my father. Time will tell.

I told him I would vote Hillary since I see her and McCain as two sides of the same coin on social issues, and if we are to be taken down their road, lets let the D get the blame. However if Obama is the D, I'm going to need to hold my nose and vote McCain.

Edited by Craig Lamson
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I told him I would vote Hillary since I see her and McCain as two sides of the same coin on social issues, and if we are to be taken down their road, lets let the D get the blame. However if Obama is the D, I'm going to need to hold my nose and vote McCain.

What is it about Obama you don't like? To me he seems a good candidate. True, he is very vague on policies, but that seems to be true of all the candidates. One of Reagan's senior advisors once said that the reason he won two presidential elections was that he always avoided making precise statements of intent.

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I told him I would vote Hillary since I see her and McCain as two sides of the same coin on social issues, and if we are to be taken down their road, lets let the D get the blame. However if Obama is the D, I'm going to need to hold my nose and vote McCain.

What is it about Obama you don't like? To me he seems a good candidate. True, he is very vague on policies, but that seems to be true of all the candidates. One of Reagan's senior advisors once said that the reason he won two presidential elections was that he always avoided making precise statements of intent.

A good candidate? His published policies are just plain bad John. What there are of them And he lacks experience. Not a good combination for President at a time like this. Now I realise you might consider his positions quite fine. But thats just the difference between you and me.

He is a perfect example of tghe nightmare that is Obama:

http://righttruth.typepad.com/right_truth/...as-poverty.html

All that being said I fully expect he will be elected.

Edited by Craig Lamson
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The one problem with Obama is the experience factor.

the guy who has been a senator for 4 years after being in the state legislature for a few years and was a community organizer for a few years?’

If Obama can beat Hilary despite HER advantage in experience, then he can beat McCain on the same argument. Its good judgment we are looking for, and McCain voted for the war in Iraq just like Hillary.

I'm not saying I wouldn't vote for him I will if he's the nominee, I'm just afraid many independants will be reluctant to. I think Democrats and independants are different species of political animal and think many voted for him because he wasn't Hillary and no one else not even Edwards (whose experience level is comprable to Obama's) could beat her.

Abraham Lincoln, another dark, skinny orator from Illinois, had served only two years in the House of Representatives when he replaced James Buchanan.

Prior to taking office, Buchanan had greater and more varied experience than almost any President ever, yet history has consigned him to far back also-rans. THat skinny orator from Illinois, on the other hand....

Not really true Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and arguably several other of his predecessors were more experienced in some cases far more experienced than Buchanan. Also the first two or so years the Civil War didn’t go well for the Union to the point where up to the summer of 1863 some Republicans considered dumping Lincoln in 1864.

But once again that being said I'll vote for Obama come election day

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