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Guest Bart Kamp

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Pretty solid of Mr. Von Pein to post the NBC footage. Hats off, considering the attacks he frequently receives — whether justified, or...they are mostly justified. I jest of course. I think it’s a noble gesture.

Personally, I suspect Prayerman is Lee Harvey Oswald. But the blurry Prayerman figure looks somewhat Rubyesque to me as well. The hairline, I think.  Not suggesting it’s Ruby, just found it amusing.

 

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David:

my odds ratio is preliminary, just to illustrate where it would be now with existing matches as they are known. The method is straightforward - calculation of conditioned probability with multiple features. For instance, Prayer Man was a white Caucasian as was Lee Oswlad, The probability of being white Caucasian in Dallas in 1963 was 0.86 as 14% of the population were other races. Of course, there are features which are more difficult to estiimate (e.g., the probability of  Prayer Man and Lee having the same shape of hairline) and for those it will be more correct to use a range of probabilities rather than a single probability value. Once finished, I would post the probability figures for everyone to check.

 

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6 minutes ago, Andrej Stancak said:

my odds ratio is preliminary, just to illustrate where it would be now with existing matches as they are known.

But there's the rub right there, Andrej. How do we decide what is truly "known", vs. factors (or "matches") that are merely pure guesses? Such as Male vs. Female and the weight of the individual, to name just two factors?

It's a guessing game to a large degree.

Edited by David Von Pein
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4 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

But there's the rub right there, Andrej. How do we decide what is truly "known", vs. factors (or "matches") that are merely pure guesses? Such as Male vs. Female and the weight of the individual, to name just two factors?

It's a guessing game to a large degree.

The weight cannot be elaborated from a picture, however, the gender can. It is simple: the distribution of body heights of US population in 1963 for people of a certain age is known. Prayer Man was 5'9'' and the probability is approaching zero for such a person being female. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Andrew Prutsok said:

Pretty solid of Mr. Von Pein to post the NBC footage. Hats off, considering the attacks he frequently receives — whether justified, or...they are mostly justified. I jest of course. I think it’s a noble gesture.

Personally, I suspect Prayerman is Lee Harvey Oswald. But the blurry Prayerman figure looks somewhat Rubyesque to me as well. The hairline, I think.  Not suggesting it’s Ruby, just found it amusing. 

Thanks for the kind words, Andrew. :)

And what you said about Ruby and hairlines is kind of interesting, because many people still to this day seem to think that Jack Ruby was roaming all over Dealey Plaza on 11/22/63. (Not as "Prayer Man" on the steps, but Ruby was allegedly seen in other locations within the Plaza, according to Jean Hill and others.)

 

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2 hours ago, Andrej Stancak said:

Prayer Man was 5'9'' and the probability is approaching zero for such a person being female.

I'm sorry, Andrew, but I'm not buying that at all. 5-feet-9 isn't very tall at all. Yes, a woman who is 5-9 would be considered "tall" for a lady. But you said the probability is near "zero" that Prayer Man is a female, despite the fact that there were undoubtedly many thousands of females in the Dallas-Fort Worth area who stood at 5-9 or taller in late 1963. I have no idea exactly HOW MANY women were 5-9 or taller, but my gosh, your "approaching zero" odds are surely overstated to a large degree.

(Quick---somebody go through all the JFK records and see if they can find any details that might reveal the height of any of the female assassination witnesses---such as: Ruth Paine, Jean Hill, Mary Woodward, Vickie Adams, Marilyn Sitzman, Karen Carlin, Barbara Davis, Carolyn Walther, Geneva Hine, Linnie Mae Randle, Jeanne DeMohrenschildt, Barbara Rowland, Eva Grant, et al, etc., etc. Surely at least some of those women were 5'9" or taller.)  :)

In addition....

How are you, Andrej, so absolutely certain that "Prayer Man" is exactly 5-feet, 9-inches tall? Have you considered every possible factor involving posture that could affect how the height of a person can be distorted in a photograph or film? And how can you determine the exact posture (or stance) of "Prayer Man"?

Seems to me, given the restrictions and limitations you're working with, the best you could possibly do would be to arrive at a range of possible heights for the unknown individual known as "Prayer Man".

 

Edited by David Von Pein
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15 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

Andrej,

You're just inventing those "1 in 700,000" odds. It's being based on data that YOU think is correct. While others might totally disagree with your data.

I don't place much stock in "odds" reached by CTers anymore----not since the "1 in 100 trillion trillion" junk that came from the CT crowd many years ago re: the "Mysterious Deaths", which we now know was totally bogus.  :)

 

David,

I wouldn't scoff at Andrej's probability figures if I were you. Determining probabilities can often be done and is easy to do if you can find the necessary data. Which it's a lot easier to do now that we have the internet.

Here's a simple example: The odds of tossing a heads is 1 in 2, right? The odds of throwing  snake eyes is 1 in 6 for each dice. The odds of doing all that in one throw is 1 in (2 x 6 x 6) = 72. That's right... you just multiply the numbers. 1 in 72 odds is an exact figure.

(The math used in this example is for independent events or feature. Since the throwing of one item doesn't effect the outcome of throwing any other item, they are indeed independent events. There are other formulas and methods for determining odds for dependent events.)

Andrej is a smart guy... I'm confident he knows what he's doing. His probability calculations will be estimates (not precise) due to the continuous nature of the data.

Also, I wouldn't readily scoff at odds that seem extremely low, like one in a trillion. Products of large numbers can "multiply up" very quickly. I'd double-check the math before dismissing it.

 

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I have a question for those who have more knowledge than I do about the "Darnell Film"....

I don't think I've ever seen the complete Darnell news film in uncut form. I have a copy of the film on my websites, but it doesn't begin with the Depository/Prayer Man scene. My copy starts with a shot of James Altgens standing on the sidewalk on Elm Street as Bill Newman is pounding the ground behind Altgens.

Does anybody know where a complete and uncut version of James Darnell's film can be found? I don't think I've seen an uncut copy on YouTube. I'd like to be able to find an uncut copy so that I can add it to my "JFK Assassination Films" webpage.

Thanks for any help anyone can provide.
 

Edited by David Von Pein
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So we now have three sets of notes saying Oswald said he was out front (with Shelly), is it two or three films showing someone unidentified in the shadows next to Fraizer who can't remember anyone there, and, now his wife saying unasked "it's Lee", to incredulousness repeating, "it's Lee".

That would be enough for Muller to seize the originals if he was investigating.  Agent's banging on the doors of NBC's offices at 6:00 AM.  Then again, the FBI never really wanted to or tried to really investigate This case.

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5 hours ago, David Von Pein said:

How are you, Andrej, so absolutely certain that "Prayer Man" is exactly 5-feet, 9-inches tall? Have you considered every possible factor involving posture that could affect how the height of a person can be distorted in a photograph or film? And how can you determine the exact posture (or stance) of "Prayer Man"?

David:

I have constructed a 3D model of the doorway using realistic measures of the doorway. I then modelled the 3D model of Lee Harvey Oswald to show Prayer Man posture and fitted this figure into the doorway in the way that it matches Prayer Man figure. Then I read Prayer Man's figure height using a tape measure tool, and it showed the height of 5'9''. The posture of Prayer Man is tightly related to his location.

I showed my data on many occasions starting April 2016 when I started to post, and lastly when I reconstructed the alternative solution testing the possibility of Jack Dougherty being Prayer Man. For the very early work, please see my article from April 19, 2016: https://thejfktruthmatters.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/prayer-man-in-darnells-film/ .  This article defines the landmarks which any reconstruction of Prayer Man needs to observe. It is not my random decision where to put Prayer Man or how tall he could be. As far as my last estimate, please see the measuring stick crossing Lee Harvey Oswald's body as Prayer Man in my last work. There are at least 10 posts of mine in various threads addressing Prayer Man's body height. I explained to you specifically in one of my recent posts how can you get a rough estimate of Prayer Man's body height by comparing the top of his head with Mr. Frazier's head. 

dougherty_sticks.jpg?w=529&zoom=2

 

However, I think this discussion is futile. It leads nowhere as whatever I write in response to you, it will be questioned by quite silly, sorry,  comments. Do you really want to discuss Prayer Man's height or only provoke? Please show your calculations, estimates, measurements, whatever.

 

Edited by Andrej Stancak
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2 hours ago, Andrej Stancak said:

Please show your calculations, estimates, measurements, whatever.

I can't. I have none. I'm no expert in this area of estimating body height, weight, etc. I'll defer to your chart re: those matters.

But.....

Have you ever wondered why Oswald dashed up to the second floor to buy a Coke within seconds of witnessing the President getting shot out on the street? Seems kind of strange, doesn't it? (And you're not one of those CTers who thinks the Baker/Oswald Lunchroom Encounter never even happened....are you?)

 

Edited by David Von Pein
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2 hours ago, David Von Pein said:

I can't. I have none. I'm no expert in this area of estimating body height, weight, etc. I'll defer to your chart re: those matters.

But.....

Have you ever wondered why Oswald dashed up to the second floor to buy a Coke within seconds of witnessing the President getting shot out on the street? Seems kind of strange, doesn't it? (And you're not one of those CTers who thinks the Baker/Oswald Lunchroom Encounter never even happened....are you?)

 

It is strange as it didn't happen. The Hosty note kills it off and then some.

 

Malcolm-Archive-Feb-2018444-Hosty.jpg

 

Which also brings me to the joint Hosty/Bookhout report and the solo Bookhout report, if I am not mistaken i asked you to discuss the major  differences between the two for weeks on row already........

The 2FLRE is dead in the water, no matter how desperate you try to revive it.

Edited by Bart Kamp
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12 hours ago, Bart Kamp said:

The 2FLRE is dead in the water, no matter how desperate you try to revive it.

YOU are the "desperate" one. You and the rest of the "Baker & Truly & Fritz All Lied About The 2nd-Floor Encounter" crowd.

James Hosty's notes don't come close to debunking the comments and testimony of the two people who were there on the second floor with Lee Harvey Oswald on 11/22/63. And those two people are: Roy S. Truly and Marrion L. Baker.

EDIT --- Re: the differences between the two FBI reports you mentioned.....I discuss that here.

Edited by David Von Pein
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