The Motorcade Puzzle

[Chris Davidson]

21 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

You do have the limo position fairly accurate for extant z437(very important). Bell starts filming slightly before that.

 

 

 

 

The distance between the two (JFK in the limo) locations in the previous gif (z437-z445.5) = 20.62ft

My average speed for this span = 30.2mph.      18.3/8.5 x 20.62ft = 44.39ft per sec /1.47

In your animation, that same frame span yields an average of 30.5mph.

Almost matching.

 

 

[Mark Tyler]

22 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

You do have the limo position fairly accurate for extant z437(very important). Bell starts filming slightly before that.

Something like this:

I don't think Bell was standing on the grass because this is refuted by the Nix film, the Bronson photo, and the Bronson film.  If Bell jumped down from the pedestal at Z133 and scampered along the grass he would have been visible in one of these Bronson images at Z235 and Z330 5-10 seconds later:

Triangulation for Bell should be fairly accurate, within a few feet I would say, because of various telltale features:

1. The pedestrian tunnel in the bridge is showing a narrow shaft of light from the other side:

2. The lamppost and sign sit in a specific location relative to the pillars of the pergola:

If you trace 3 lines back for each of these frames on the map you should find they all cross over in the alcove in the peristyle that I position Bell in the animation.

The clearest early frame of the Bell film I found was in this video:

Judging from the position of the Limo relative to the lamppost, this is about Z419, so with a few blurry frames before he may have restarted as early as Z410 (within a second of where I think the third shot was fired).  As I recall I used the yellow flash at Z460 to catch the 3 lead bikes in the distance, rather than to signify the beginning of the Bell film.

In summary I think my calculations in the animation are correct because:

1. The triangulation places him in the peristyle.

2. Bronson proves he was not running around the peristyle Z235 - Z330.

3. He restarts filming at Z410 which corresponds perfectly in time for him to walk briskly from his first known position at Z133 to the triangulated position for the next sequence of the film at Z410.

[Chris Davidson]

2 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

I don't think Bell was standing on the grass because this is refuted by the Nix film, the Bronson photo, and the Bronson film.  If Bell jumped down from the pedestal at Z133 and scampered along the grass he would have been visible in one of these Bronson images at Z235 and Z330 5-10 seconds later:

Triangulation for Bell should be fairly accurate, within a few feet I would say, because of various telltale features:

1. The pedestrian tunnel in the bridge is showing a narrow shaft of light from the other side:

2. The lamppost and sign sit in a specific location relative to the pillars of the pergola:

If you trace 3 lines back for each of these frames on the map you should find they all cross over in the alcove in the peristyle that I position Bell in the animation.

The clearest early frame of the Bell film I found was in this video:

Judging from the position of the Limo relative to the lamppost, this is about Z419, so with a few blurry frames before he may have restarted as early as Z410 (within a second of where I think the third shot was fired).  As I recall I used the yellow flash at Z460 to catch the 3 lead bikes in the distance, rather than to signify the beginning of the Bell film.

In summary I think my calculations in the animation are correct because:

1. The triangulation places him in the peristyle.

2. Bronson proves he was not running around the peristyle Z235 - Z330.

3. He restarts filming at Z410 which corresponds perfectly in time for him to walk briskly from his first known position at Z133 to the triangulated position for the next sequence of the film at Z410.

I am wrong about Bell's filming location.

I agree with your summary.

I wonder if he just hopped down right in front from up above. If not, that is quite alright.

That said, this changes only slightly, the syncing of Bell/Z.

More to come.

Thanks.

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

Continuing forward:

Would you agree/disagree that these two frames sync?

 

 

[John Butler]

On ‎10‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 5:28 PM, Mark Tyler said:

I agree, I think that the black car turning off is definitely the advanced car:  a single occupant; a white car following behind; and bikes about 20 seconds behind the white car all fits exactly with the known motorcade vehicle pattern.

Indeed, I've not seen these two cars anywhere else, either in films or photos.  The versions of the Paschall film that I have seen do have some early footage of the Market Street area, but then it cuts to the advanced bikes just missing what the AMIPA film shows.

The white car in the Muchmore film is tricky to identify due to timing issues.  Specifically, the traffic is flowing around the white car, whereas we know that when the bikes turn the same corner just seconds after the pilot car the traffic has completely stopped and cleared.  For example there is a bus parked behind the white car, but when the bikes are turning it has disappeared completely.  Therefore I suspect the Muchmore white car was probably filmed a few minutes before the Pilot car appeared.

Either way, we still have enough evidence with the AMIPA film and the Warren Commission testimony to be confident that the white pilot car drove through Dealey Plaza.  Pilot car puzzle solved!

Mark,

FWIW, if you watch the Robert Hughes film you will see that there are plenty of Dallas Policemen directing traffic near the intersection of Main and Houston.  I would say the Pilot Car arrived at the intersection when traffic was still moving there.  And, by the time the motorbikes arrived traffic had been stopped and cleared in that area.  Muchmore shows a person walking across the intersection before the motocade arrives there.  We don't see the 3 Advance Motorcycles there.  What is seen is the 5 Lead Motorcycles.  They take the turn in an approved procedural fashion  with 3 motobikes first followed by two motorbikes.   

 

[Michael Cross]

13 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

I am wrong about Bell's filming location.

I agree with your summary.

I wonder if he just hopped down right in front from up above. If not, that is quite alright.

That said, this changes only slightly, the syncing of Bell/Z.

More to come.

Thanks.

 

 

 

I love this.  Collaboration, not being stuck on a position, searching for the truth.  Well done.

[John Butler]

These two frames sure look like they were taken across the grass from Main Street.  But, when you access a map of the area then you will see that it is possible for Bell to jump down from his perch and move forward towards the grass, but still stay within the structure.  His location in the structure would keep him from being seen in the Bronson film.  He might be one of the indistinct folks seem at the extreme left (photo right) center of the film frame.  I still have a hard time seeing this angle, but will take your word as correct.

This is a Skaggs photo. 

Bell is shown in a white shirt and a man standing near him has on a dark suit.  In the Bronson frame we might see a man in a dark suit and someone in a white shirt.  Could be Bell.

It's fairly rough.  But, there are two or more people there.  One could be the dark suit guy as seen in Skaggs.  Probably Bell had the same idea as him or vice versa.  It's too rough to say for sure, but is it suggestive.

Edited October 15, 2019 by John Butler

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/15/2019 at 8:42 AM, Chris Davidson said:

Continuing forward:

Would you agree/disagree that these two frames sync?

 

 

The two frames are close, here is the rendering of the animation at Z435.1:

There is is an optical illusion in the Bell frame.  You have triangulated to the nearside abutment in the map, but you should have used the the far side edge because the black area is actually the wall of the tunnel.

Otherwise, yes they are very close in time and within a few frames I would say due to the car moving so fast at this time circa 25-30 MPH.

Edited October 16, 2019 by Mark Tyler

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/15/2019 at 4:00 PM, John Butler said:

Mark,

FWIW, if you watch the Robert Hughes film you will see that there are plenty of Dallas Policemen directing traffic near the intersection of Main and Houston.  I would say the Pilot Car arrived at the intersection when traffic was still moving there.  And, by the time the motorbikes arrived traffic had been stopped and cleared in that area.  Muchmore shows a person walking across the intersection before the motocade arrives there.  We don't see the 3 Advance Motorcycles there.  What is seen is the 5 Lead Motorcycles.  They take the turn in an approved procedural fashion  with 3 motobikes first followed by two motorbikes.   

 

I think the first few scenes of the Hughes film were taken some minutes before, but as always, its hard to know due to the cutting between scenes as it could be seconds or minutes each time.

The 5 lead bikes break at some point in main street (all 5 were together in a Paschall sequence, so near Market St I would guess), with 2 of them moving near the advance bikes, which is what we see in Muchmore.  Croft 1 shows the remaining 3 in front of the DPD lead car:

Its a bit grainy but its enough proof to show that the bikes in Muchmore were ahead of these ones.

For more references regarding the bike formation have a look at Todd Wayne Vaughan's work here:

http://jfk.hood.edu/Collection/Weisberg Subject Index Files/M Disk/Motorcade Route/Item 15.pdf

Edited October 16, 2019 by Mark Tyler

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/15/2019 at 4:05 PM, Michael Cross said:

I love this.  Collaboration, not being stuck on a position, searching for the truth.  Well done.

Indeed Michael, cooperation really helps get to the bottom of these things!  Its very easy to get the wrong end of the stick with some of these photos and films, so a fresh pair of eyes is very handy.

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/15/2019 at 4:30 PM, John Butler said:

It's fairly rough.  But, there are two or more people there.  One could be the dark suit guy as seen in Skaggs.  Probably Bell had the same idea as him or vice versa.  It's too rough to say for sure, but is it suggestive.

This is really interesting John.  I think the view is looking down the channel, because the human figure looks much smaller than the ones in the foreground.  Here is the animation frame for that moment:

70 is Muchmore and 71 is Bond, so they may be involved also.  Its a hard photo to read though as the edge cuts off what we need to see for context, so I'm not sure what to make of it.  Having said that, the tree between Bronson and the peristyle looks too far to the right on my map, so I will move it to the left a bit.  Thanks for the tip!

[John Butler]

Mark,

I agree the figures down the walk do look smaller that they should if that is Bell.  Those figures should be closer to Bronson than those figures north of Elm St.  But, they look smaller.  It could be some sort of camera distortion thing and an illusion.  I guess one could count the sections in the structure.  It is a shame that no one on the north side of Elm filmed except Zapruder. Or, was allowed to or keep their film. 

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by John Butler

[Chris Davidson]

2 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

The two frames are close, here is the rendering of the animation at Z435.1:

There is is an optical illusion in the Bell frame.  You have triangulated to the nearside abutment in the map, but you should have used the the far side edge because the black area is actually the wall of the tunnel.

Otherwise, yes they are very close in time and within a few frames I would say due to the car moving so fast at this time circa 25-30 MPH.

That's fine.

Next would be a sync for both films near the underpass.

If you know the Bell (progressive) frame count between this location and the previous z435 location, this will give you a FPS ratio from Bell to Z using 18.3fps per Z.

 

[Mark Tyler]

22 hours ago, John Butler said:

Mark,

I agree the figures down the walk do look smaller that they should if that is Bell.  Those figures should be closer to Bronson than those figures north of Elm St.  But, they look smaller.  It could be some sort of camera distortion thing and an illusion.  I guess one could count the sections in the structure.  It is a shame that no one on the north side of Elm filmed except Zapruder. Or, was allowed to or keep their film. 

 

John, I think I have worked out what is going on.  I think the white pillar furthest away is actually the one north of Elm street as per this diagram:

Interestingly you mentioned the human figures north of Elm street are the same size in your post so I suspect you may have been one step ahead here!

Just for clarity here is a brighter version:

I don't think Marie Muchmore (labelled 70 in the animation frame above) is visible in this photo. She starts filming about 2-3 seconds after the Bronson photo was taken so she may be just to the right of the frame as she dashed across.  Here is a view from the other side so you can see more clearly where Muchmore was standing when she took the final scene of her film:

Here is a view of the pillar to the north of Elm Street taken circa Z133, known as Willis 4, with the light pillar side to the left, and the shaded side to the right (matching the Bronson photo):

There were about 102 Zapruder frames between this and the Bronson photo, or about 5.6 seconds, so the people may have moved slightly.  I don't think this helps with anything in the animation, but its worth putting on the public record just for reference.

[Mark Tyler]

21 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

That's fine.

Next would be a sync for both films near the underpass.

If you know the Bell (progressive) frame count between this location and the previous z435 location, this will give you a FPS ratio from Bell to Z using 18.3fps per Z.

 

This does sound logical Chris, and the frames you use with the Limo entering the bridge shadow looks synchronized to me.  Sadly I don't have access to the original Bell frames, so I can't do any accurate calculations regarding frame numbers (i.e. to get the relative frame rate ratio from Bell to Zapruder).  Do you have access to all of the original frames?