General Election: Make Your Prediction

[John Simkin]

All the polls suggest a reduced but a substantial majority for New Labour. However, I believe this election in particular is difficult to predict. The main reason for this is Blair’s unpopularity with the left. Many of those who gave him the benefit of the doubt in the last election will this time vote against him.

Several polls have shown that Labour is going to have difficulty persuading its traditional supporters to vote. Apparently, Labour is doing especially badly in marginal seats. So also are the Tories. I expect the left will vote tactically. In most cases in the UK this will favour the Liberal Democrats.

I believe Labour will do particularly badly in Scotland and Wales. Both countries have a higher percentage of socialists than England. Both the SNP and Plaid Cymru are to the left of New Labour.

My overall prediction is a hung parliament. New Labour will be the largest party and will form the government. Those on the left of Labour (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrats) will then be in a position to moderate Labour’s right-wing policies. I would expect that if this situation arose Blair would resign and Brown would become PM.

This will be followed by New Labour moving to the left in government. You will no doubt say my heart is ruling my head. That is true. But you could say that is a problem with all socialists.

[Doug Belshaw]

I'm not a politics guru, but I can't help but think that the apathetic people will turn out to be the anti-Blairites at this election. Labour will win with a comfortable majority because of the people who always vote Labour. Unfortunately, intelligent and cultured people don't get more than one vote...

Doug

[Guest]

Unfortunately, intelligent and cultured people don't get more than one vote... 

Doug

Thankfully neither do Conservatives

[John Simkin]

The latest odds at William Hill is 20-1 on that Labour will obtain an overall majority. This is based on the latest opinion polls that suggests that Labour will have a majority of over a 100. However, all is not lost. A large percentage of those sampled (around 20%) are still undecided or are unwilling to say who they intend to vote for. The polls also show that Labour supporters are the least likely to vote.

The overall figure for the Tories is also misleading. They are doing very badly in Scotland and Wales and are unlikely to win many seats in these countries. Although Labour is doing much better than the Tories in Scotland and Wales they could lose a lot of seats to the nationalists who are now far to the left of New Labour.

A further complication is that all the parties are concentrating their efforts in the marginals. The poll results for these constituencies are far less encouraging for Labour. Their lead is much smaller in these seats and there is evidence that a great deal of tactical voting is going to take place tomorrow.

Therefore, the final result could be much closer than the polls suggest. Although it is unlikely we will have a Hung Parliament (12-1 with William Hill) a dramatic fall in Labour’s overall majority could see Blair being removed as prime minister. I suspect this is what the British people want. History shows the electorate are reluctant to elect a party to power in three successive elections (power corrupts, etc.) The fact that the Conservative Party is being led by Michael Howard makes it impossible for the British electorate to vote them into power. By voting for one of the other parties might make it possible to clip Blair’s wings (no pun intended).