can these three questions be answered by a single theory?

[Greg Parker]

1. Why did Oswald go through the hassle of obtaining a phony early out from duty when he had so little time left to serve anyway?

2. Why did Oswald write to the Albert Schweitzer College from Moscow advising of a date of arrival?

3. Why was Oswald not prosecuted for his threat to give the Soviets classified information?

[Robert Charles-Dunne]

The answer is most assuredly “yes,” provided one is prepared to interpret certain circumstantial evidence in a fashion that allows for that conclusion.

1. Why did Oswald go through the hassle of obtaining a phony early out from duty when he had so little time left to serve anyway?

I have long argued that the speediness of his exit from the Marine Corps, with the USMC’s apparent connivance, indicates Oswald’s hardship discharge was a spurious ruse. Either his command was unaccountably lenient toward Oswald, or he was remarkably prescient in knowing precisely which lies to tell in order to obtain the discharge.

For some clear but undetermined reason, it seemed imperative to have him arrive in the Soviet Union at the earliest possible opportunity. And an invisible hand - in a superior position in the bureaucratic food chain - facilitated the discharge by prevailing upon the USMC to dummy up the necessary rationale.

As WC documents disclose, LHO’s choice of Helsinki as an entrance point coincided almost precisely with the CIA’s own concurrent “discovery” that the Soviet consul there had unique discretion in granting entry visas without lengthy bureaucratic delays. Either he was remarkably prescient, or - again - we see an otherwise invisible hand directing Oswald toward a goal, via the path of least resistance.

When the Soviets failed to greet Oswald warmly as a genuine defector, he visited Consul Snyder under the pretext of wishing to renounce his citizenship. That it was a ruse designed for the consumption of the eavesdropping Soviets is indicated by two factors: first, that he loudly proclaimed his intention to betray US military secrets to the Soviets, an act against his own self-interest that served no purpose but to invite closer Soviet interest in him; and, second, that he failed to effect such renunciation when Snyder advised him to come back to do so, which Oswald did not.

It is possible this Moscow Embassy charade served a third purpose, unknown perhaps even to Oswald, who seems to have been following a script written by others.

Let us hypothesize, as many have already done over the past five decades, that the downing of Francis Gary Powers’ U2 overflight - launched in direct violation of Eisenhower’s own prohibition - was designed to sabotage the Peace Summit between Ike and Nikita, which is precisely what transpired as a result.

Yet the Soviets had no known means of accessing the necessary technical information regarding the U2's capabilities in order to shoot it down, and no means of shooting it down if the plane was flying at maximum altitude..

If the plot was designed to scuttle the Summit, then the parties responsible for that plot had only one true option. They need sabotage the U2 to ensure that it could be shot down at something lower than maximum altitude. They could do this with little fear of their plot being exposed, for the pilot would never survive being hit, and if he somehow miraculously did, all U2 pilots were ordered to kill themselves (with the means thoughtfully provided them) rather than allow being captured. The plotter(s) had every assurance that the only meaningful witness would not survive. (Powers did survive, and failed to commit suicide as instructed.)

But in order for said plot to succeed, the plotter(s) also needed a superficially viable - albeit entirely false - narrative of how the Soviets managed to achieve the missile accuracy to bring down a stealth flight at 100,000 feet.

Enter Comrade Oswald, stage left, loudly announcing his intention to provide the Soviets with every military secret he had learned during his Marine Corps tenure at Atsugi’s CIA-operated U2 base.

It is imperative to note that the plans for the Peace Summit had been made when LHO suddenly sought a discharge for which he was ineligible, and applied for a passport by stating an intent to travel to countries that would have otherwise disqualified him for said passport. It is also instructive to note that Powers himself allowed that Oswald might have provided the Soviets with the intelligence necessary to down his flight.

2. Why did Oswald write to the Albert Schweitzer College from Moscow advising of a date of arrival?

Speculation: the arrival of said letter, irrespective of what it contained, was a signal of something, perhaps that he had arrived in Moscow or that the Soviets weren’t biting, or whatever. This is routine tradecraft disguised as something so mundane it wouldn’t raise a suspicious eyebrow among Soviets screening such outbound mail.

3. Why was Oswald not prosecuted for his threat to give the Soviets classified information?

And, for that matter, why was he never even debriefed by CIA upon repatriation, when the Agency had multiple programs to do just that? (Of course there is now ample evidence that he was, but that’s not the charade script that everybody stuck to at the time, was it?)

Anyone with the means to facilitate Oswald’s early USMC discharge and his easy entry into the Soviet Union presumably had sufficient sway to ensure that proxy agent Oswald wouldn’t be punished for having served his “patriotic” purpose.

[David G. Healy]

The answer is most assuredly “yes,” provided one is prepared to interpret certain circumstantial evidence in a fashion that allows for that conclusion.

1. Why did Oswald go through the hassle of obtaining a phony early out from duty when he had so little time left to serve anyway?

I have long argued that the speediness of his exit from the Marine Corps, with the USMC’s apparent connivance, indicates Oswald’s hardship discharge was a spurious ruse. Either his command was unaccountably lenient toward Oswald, or he was remarkably prescient in knowing precisely which lies to tell in order to obtain the discharge.

For some clear but undetermined reason, it seemed imperative to have him arrive in the Soviet Union at the earliest possible opportunity. And an invisible hand - in a superior position in the bureaucratic food chain - facilitated the discharge by prevailing upon the USMC to dummy up the necessary rationale.

As WC documents disclose, LHO’s choice of Helsinki as an entrance point coincided almost precisely with the CIA’s own concurrent “discovery” that the Soviet consul there had unique discretion in granting entry visas without lengthy bureaucratic delays. Either he was remarkably prescient, or - again - we see an otherwise invisible hand directing Oswald toward a goal, via the path of least resistance.

When the Soviets failed to greet Oswald warmly as a genuine defector, he visited Consul Snyder under the pretext of wishing to renounce his citizenship. That it was a ruse designed for the consumption of the eavesdropping Soviets is indicated by two factors: first, that he loudly proclaimed his intention to betray US military secrets to the Soviets, an act against his own self-interest that served no purpose but to invite closer Soviet interest in him; and, second, that he failed to effect such renunciation when Snyder advised him to come back to do so, which Oswald did not.

It is possible this Moscow Embassy charade served a third purpose, unknown perhaps even to Oswald, who seems to have been following a script written by others.

Let us hypothesize, as many have already done over the past five decades, that the downing of Francis Gary Powers’ U2 overflight - launched in direct violation of Eisenhower’s own prohibition - was designed to sabotage the Peace Summit between Ike and Nikita, which is precisely what transpired as a result.

Yet the Soviets had no known means of accessing the necessary technical information regarding the U2's capabilities in order to shoot it down, and no means of shooting it down if the plane was flying at maximum altitude..

If the plot was designed to scuttle the Summit, then the parties responsible for that plot had only one true option. They need sabotage the U2 to ensure that it could be shot down at something lower than maximum altitude. They could do this with little fear of their plot being exposed, for the pilot would never survive being hit, and if he somehow miraculously did, all U2 pilots were ordered to kill themselves (with the means thoughtfully provided them) rather than allow being captured. The plotter(s) had every assurance that the only meaningful witness would not survive. (Powers did survive, and failed to commit suicide as instructed.)

But in order for said plot to succeed, the plotter(s) also needed a superficially viable - albeit entirely false - narrative of how the Soviets managed to achieve the missile accuracy to bring down a stealth flight at 100,000 feet.

Enter Comrade Oswald, stage left, loudly announcing his intention to provide the Soviets with every military secret he had learned during his Marine Corps tenure at Atsugi’s CIA-operated U2 base.

It is imperative to note that the plans for the Peace Summit had been made when LHO suddenly sought a discharge for which he was ineligible, and applied for a passport by stating an intent to travel to countries that would have otherwise disqualified him for said passport. It is also instructive to note that Powers himself allowed that Oswald might have provided the Soviets with the intelligence necessary to down his flight.

2. Why did Oswald write to the Albert Schweitzer College from Moscow advising of a date of arrival?

Speculation: the arrival of said letter, irrespective of what it contained, was a signal of something, perhaps that he had arrived in Moscow or that the Soviets weren’t biting, or whatever. This is routine tradecraft disguised as something so mundane it wouldn’t raise a suspicious eyebrow among Soviets screening such outbound mail.

3. Why was Oswald not prosecuted for his threat to give the Soviets classified information?

And, for that matter, why was he never even debriefed by CIA upon repatriation, when the Agency had multiple programs to do just that? (Of course there is now ample evidence that he was, but that’s not the charade script that everybody stuck to at the time, was it?)

Anyone with the means to facilitate Oswald’s early USMC discharge and his easy entry into the Soviet Union presumably had sufficient sway to ensure that proxy agent Oswald wouldn’t be punished for having served his “patriotic” purpose.

Robert...

Great to see your posts again....

[Greg Parker]

The return of un bâtard errant!

So Oswald HAD to make his Moscow play by a certain date because of the Summit, and the only way to make that deadline was with an early out? It would be over 6 months before Powers is shot down, and from memory, Oswald had something less than 3 months of active duty left.

How would his masters have protected him had the plan actually worked and he got blamed at the time for the bringing down of the plane? It seems under that circumstance, there would have been no going home without facing a possible death sentence.

Apart from the timing question mark, and the latter concern, well worth considering. In fact, in a moment of Divine Inspiration just now while taking a time out to make a hot dog, I realized this theory could be combined with my own in a manner which eliminates any and all concerns.

More soon... in the meantime, does anyone here have any insight into the workings of the Special Group Augmented?

greg

[William Kelly]

The return of un bâtard errant!

So Oswald HAD to make his Moscow play by a certain date because of the Summit, and the only way to make that deadline was with an early out? It would be over 6 months before Powers is shot down, and from memory, Oswald had something less than 3 months of active duty left.

How would his masters have protected him had the plan actually worked and he got blamed at the time for the bringing down of the plane? It seems under that circumstance, there would have been no going home without facing a possible death sentence.

Apart from the timing question mark, and the latter concern, well worth considering. In fact, in a moment of Divine Inspiration just now while taking a time out to make a hot dog, I realized this theory could be combined with my own in a manner which eliminates any and all concerns.

More soon... in the meantime, does anyone here have any insight into the workings of the Special Group Augmented?

greg

Greg, Thanks for your insights into Oswald's visit to the USSR, which he compared to Hemingway's visits to Paris.

As for the Special Group Augmented, it was established to handle US strategic policy towards Cuba, and was "Augmented" with the addition of RFK.

BK

[Greg Parker]

The return of un bâtard errant!

So Oswald HAD to make his Moscow play by a certain date because of the Summit, and the only way to make that deadline was with an early out? It would be over 6 months before Powers is shot down, and from memory, Oswald had something less than 3 months of active duty left.

How would his masters have protected him had the plan actually worked and he got blamed at the time for the bringing down of the plane? It seems under that circumstance, there would have been no going home without facing a possible death sentence.

Apart from the timing question mark, and the latter concern, well worth considering. In fact, in a moment of Divine Inspiration just now while taking a time out to make a hot dog, I realized this theory could be combined with my own in a manner which eliminates any and all concerns.

More soon... in the meantime, does anyone here have any insight into the workings of the Special Group Augmented?

greg

Greg, Thanks for your insights into Oswald's visit to the USSR, which he compared to Hemingway's visits to Paris.

As for the Special Group Augmented, it was established to handle US strategic policy towards Cuba, and was "Augmented" with the addition of RFK.

BK

Bill,

Sorry -- not using my computer which has all my files, so have looked it up again on the web - I meant the committee under Ike which was called The Special Group, but officially was known the 5412 Committee. What I want to confirm is whether this committee used Marine Reservists to carry out covert tasks. I have been told it did, but I'd really like to find documentary evidence to use as a cite.

[David Andrews]

How would his masters have protected him had the plan actually worked and he got blamed at the time for the bringing down of the plane? It seems under that circumstance, there would have been no going home without facing a possible death sentence.

greg

Well, some means of getting Oswald discredited in the USSR - perhaps through info provided by a mole or another false defector - could have gotten the Russians to quietly make Oz disappear. If Powers was expendable, why should Oswald, or "Oswald," not be a patsy sooner than later?

[Greg Parker]

How would his masters have protected him had the plan actually worked and he got blamed at the time for the bringing down of the plane? It seems under that circumstance, there would have been no going home without facing a possible death sentence.

greg

Well, some means of getting Oswald discredited in the USSR - perhaps through info provided by a mole or another false defector - could have gotten the Russians to quietly make Oz disappear. If Powers was expendable, why should Oswald, or "Oswald," not be a patsy sooner than later?

Thanks david, but I think that's getting needlessly complicated. What you have there is a situation where the person who is blamed for giving the Russkies the info needed to shoot down a U2 is then "disappeared" by the Russkies. Wouldn't that raise some eyebrows back home?

[Greg Parker]

Below I have given my answers to the questions.

1. Why did Oswald go through the hassle of obtaining a phony early out from duty when he had so little time left to serve anyway?

He had a deadline determined by negotiations on scientific an d technological exchanges. The agreement was finally ratified in the 3rd week of November.

2. Why did Oswald write to the Albert Schweitzer College from Moscow advising of a date of arrival?

For the reason Robert gave or he had no intention of defecting at that time.

3. Why was Oswald not prosecuted for his threat to give the Soviets classified information?

Because the information he gave was given legally under clause (2) of the aforementioned agreement. This clause by virtue of its (probably deliberate) vagueness, allowed "under-the-counter" exchanges.

My next post will be a combination of my own theory (which, I should add, borrows substantially from the work of Jim Olmstead) and RCD's. As Robert said, it works if one is prepared to interpret certain circumstantial evidence in a fashion that allows for the conclusions made.

The bottom line? The Soviets were being screwed by Ike's committee in a game of Nash's Equilibrium. And if this hybrid theory is correct, the CIA in turn screwed both governments.