Australian Federal election

[Evan Burton]

Well, as predicted, it's going to be close.

The ABC is saying that it looks as though the Libs will gain about 17 seats - the magic number - but it is really still too early to tell. South Australia polls have closed but WA is still open for about 45 minutes.

Going to be a long night!

[John Dolva]

Sure is. It could be a matter of the greens being a decider. Big swings to them. There was no late rush in wa afaik even though the counting is under way in the east.

http://abc.com.au/elections/federal/2010/ (constant update)

[Evan Burton]

Mike Kelly has Eden-Monaro, but the bell-weather electorate may not be right this time. Greens are winning big time as a lot of voters get sick of the major parties. They're even saying it could be down to postal votes!

[Evan Burton]

Thanks for the link John - I'm also looking at the AEC's virtual tally rook:

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/

[John Dolva]

yes. And one would reasonably expect that green prefs will flow to labour. A lot of donkey votes too. The swing against labor is likely largely protests that wont benefit the conservatives as much as Labour.

edit typo

Edited August 21, 2010 by John Dolva

[John Dolva]

''Counting has now started in Western Australia, so results should start rolling in shortly...''

edit add typo

Many WA voters HATE the Gov Lib/NCP Coalition in WA which could be a decider in how they vote Nationally.

Edited August 21, 2010 by John Dolva

[Evan Burton]

I was surprised to see how many informal votes there were: 5.7%!

[John Dolva]

Yep, not so many since '70. Many are feeling that neither major party warrants endorsement.

Of course there can turn out to be counting irregularities that may demand recounts.

[John Dolva]

Party Totals

Parties ordered by their primary vote performance.

63.2% counted. Last updated Sat Aug 21 09:03PM Party Candidates Swing Primary

Votes % Labor 150 -4.1 3,292,002 39.2 Liberal 109 -1.3 2,378,152 28.3 Greens 150 +3.7 963,118 11.5 LNP 30 +1.9 870,167 10.4 National 16 +0.3 321,963 3.8 Independent 82 +0.3 214,986 2.6 Family First 108 +0.3 192,194 2.3 Christian Democratic Party 42 -0.4 40,503 0.5 Country Liberal 2 -0.1 19,877 0.2 One Nation 21 0.0 18,327 0.2 Australian Democrats 25 -0.5 15,199 0.2 Liberty and Democrac 22 0.0 15,028 0.2 Secular Party 19 +0.1 8,671 0.1 Socialist Equality Party 10 +0.1 7,682 0.1 Socialist Alliance 12 0.0 6,551 0.1 Australian Sex Party 6 +0.1 6,218 0.1 Citizens Electoral Council 12 -0.2 4,281 0.1 Democratic Labor Party 7 0.0 3,434 0.0 Climate Sceptics 7 0.0 2,762 0.0 Non-Custodial Parents Party 2 0.0 2,348 0.0 Australia First 5 0.0 2,091 0.0 - 5 0.0 1,678 0.0 Carers Alliance 3 0.0 987 0.0 Building Australia Party 3 0.0 637 0.0 Communist Alliance 1 0.0 381 0.0

[John Dolva]

Well, it doesn't look good. This is the problem with australias election system. Labour gets a largest slice of primary votes and the preferential distribution shifts this intent towards the conservatives. A lot of small groupings, mostly right funnel their preferences to the coalition. Three years of Abbott would be hell. A hung parliament at least will temper the rightwingers. Labour has hung on well and the shift to the Greens is maybe the best that can be salvaged.

Also a hung hamstrung parliament will make the next election likely to come as soon as possible.

[John Dolva]

At least it looks like the progressives will control the Senate.

http://abc.com.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/senate-results.htm

[John Simkin]

BBC Website:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11037486

Counting in Australia's general election suggests the result is too close to call, after the tightest race in decades.

An election expert from Australia's ABC, Antony Green, says he believes a hung parliament is now likely.

Projections by ABC indicated that neither the ruling Labor party nor the opposition coalition would gain the 76 seats needed to win outright.

The country's last hung parliament was in 1940.

The vote took place two months after Ms Gillard ousted Kevin Rudd in a controversial leadership challenge.

Unofficial counts by ABC, based on two thirds of the votes counted, gave both Prime Minister Julia Gillard's Labor party and Tony Abbott's conservative coalition 68 seats each.

[Evan Burton]

It will be VERY interesting. Labor will have to note the swings against them.

I absolutely loved the way one of the key independents said in an interview - conducted by phone because they can't get half decent broadband - that communications was going to be a prime subject with him! Yeah!

[Evan Burton]

Also to note we have our youngest elected representative: just 20 years of age.

[John Dolva]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/ livecast

The swings against Labor is reflected in a swing towards the Greens which effectively means a Labor directed swing. The conservative swing has stayed almost static throughout the counting. Also Brisbane seems to be back in contention. ie now possibly three undecided, it's a cliff hamger for sure which is not such a good thing except for the fact that progressives will control the Senate, so even if it goes against a positive result in the House of reps, Labour and the wishes of the majority of autralians (primary vote) will still prevail to some extent.

edit typo

Edited August 21, 2010 by John Dolva