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Oswald Leaving TSBD?


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5 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:
8 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

This is irrefutable proof that Baker wasn't headed for the TSBD. The only question is, when did Baker change his mind, turn around, and go up the steps. Going by Shelley and Lovelady's WC testimonies, he did so about three minutes after the shooting. Which is about 2.5 minutes after the end of the video.

Note that Lovelady can still be seen on the steps at the end of this video. So he cannot be one of the two guys walking toward the railroad yard in this video. This fact corresponds with Shelley's and Lovelady's WC testimonies.

On the one hand you are holding up the testimony of both Shelley & Lovelady as being witnesses who are 100% accurate with their timing of 3 minutes - have you considered just how many other witnesses have to be totally wrong to make that work? I could give you about 10 straight off the bat!

No, I'm not holding what Shelley and Lovelady testified to (the 3 minute delay) as being 100% accurate. I'm holding that the photo-analysis is 100% accurate.

BTW, sorry I misread your opinion of the the two walking down Elm Street extension. Now  I realize that you believe the pair to be Shelley and Lovelady. I used to believe that myself. But recently I've seen too many problems for that scenario. For one, Lovelady is still standing on the steps as Baker approaches. You can see him rise up by one step level at the very end of the film. Sure, it could be some other person who also looks a bit like Lovelady and Oswald. But I think it the same person -- Lovelady -- that was standing there earlier.

In copies of the film where the black isn't saturated (that is to say, where shades of gray can be discerned), a pattern can be seen on alleged Shelley's jacket. His jacket didn't have a pattern.

Finally, Bob Prudhomme's investigation into Shelley's height makes it appear that Shelley is actually a few inches shorter that Lovelady. And yet alleged Shelley is shown to be taller than alleged Lovelady.

It is these things that got me rethinking my position on the pair walking down the extension. And this is what got me to thinking that maybe Shelley and Lovelady got it right when they testified that they didn't leave the steps for three minutes, waiting for Gloria Calvery. The photo-analysis is the nail in the coffin.

Edited by Sandy Larsen
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5 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

 

8 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

This is irrefutable proof that Baker wasn't headed for the TSBD. The only question is, when did Baker change his mind, turn around, and go up the steps. Going by Shelley and Lovelady's WC testimonies, he did so about three minutes after the shooting. Which is about 2.5 minutes after the end of the video.

Note that Lovelady can still be seen on the steps at the end of this video. So he cannot be one of the two guys walking toward the railroad yard in this video. This fact corresponds with Shelley's and Lovelady's WC testimonies.

On the one hand you are holding up the testimony of both Shelley & Lovelady as being witnesses who are 100% accurate with their timing of 3 minutes - have you considered just how many other witnesses have to be totally wrong to make that work? I could give you about 10 straight off the bat!


That is precisely what I asked for in my thread Maybe Shelley & Lovelady didn't lie after all.

Baker lied. Truly lied. And the WC put a lie in Victoria Adams testimony. That's the premise the thread began with. Because these three things are accepted as fact by the numerous researchers who believe the 2nd-floor encounter never occurred.

In my thread I asked for any difficulties/contradictions created by Shelley's and Lovelady's 3-minute testimony. I asked because 2nd-floor-encounter critics generally believe that Shelley and Lovelady lied too. I don't think they did. And I don't believe they are mistaken in their testimonies.

If you want, go back and post the testimonies of your other seven "off-the-bat" people who are contradicted by Shelley and Lovelady.

Edited by Sandy Larsen
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4 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

Anyway, at this point I would like to quote two other comments from the other thread you linked to earlier as I think both are quite apt here...

First, a comment made by Bill Miller. in direct response to something you said...

Quote

Baker heard the first shot while on Houston and turned onto Elm where he then parked his cycle a few feet short of the stop-light. He paused for a moment and looked down the street to see people falling to the ground and proceeded to run towards the steps of the TSBD. His last leap is onto the sidewalk in front of the steps. One could say Baker was undecided as to which  building the shots came from (Dal-tex or TSBD) and chose one at the last second if they like. All I am saying is that there is no evidence that he was going anywhere but to steps in my view.

What I have highlighted here in red is factually incorrect. Baker was roughly 6 feet from the sidewalk on his last step. If you and Bill had bothered to check out my photo-analysis you guys would know that.

And there definitely is evidence... nay, proof... that Baker was not going to the TSBD steps. Because the video shows he had already passed them on his final step.


Secondly, a comment made by David Lifton in direct response to someone who had responded to something you said

Quote

For these reasons, I am reluctant to enter into, and then attempt to descend, into this "rabbit hole", which I believe to be (a) incorrect and (b ) (largely) irrelevant.

I have no idea what this is referring to. If it is referring to the idea that the 2nd floor encounter never occurred -- or anything else for that matter --  well then so what? Is David Lifton supposed to be the walking, talking CT Bible?

 

 

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4 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

No, I'm not holding what Shelley and Lovelady testified to (the 3 minute delay) as being 100% accurate. I'm holding that the photo-analysis is 100% accurate.

BTW, sorry I misread your opinion of the the two walking down Elm Street extension. Now  I realize that you believe the pair to be Shelley and Lovelady. I used to believe that myself. But recently I've seen too many problems for that scenario. For one, Lovelady is still standing on the steps as Baker approaches. You can see him rise up by one step level at the very end of the film. Sure, it could be some other person who also looks a bit like Lovelady and Oswald. But I think it the same person -- Lovelady -- that was standing there earlier.

In copies of the film where the black isn't saturated (that is to say, where shades of gray can be discerned), a pattern can be seen on alleged Shelley's jacket. His jacket didn't have a pattern.

Finally, Bob Prudhomme's investigation into Shelley's height makes it appear that Shelley is actually a few inches shorter that Lovelady. And yet alleged Shelley is shown to be taller than alleged Lovelady.

It is these things that got me rethinking my position on the pair walking down the extension. And this is what got me to thinking that maybe Shelley and Lovelady got it right when they testified that they didn't leave the steps for three minutes, waiting for Gloria Calvery. The photo-analysis is the nail in the coffin.

 

What you are holding is that YOUR photo-analysis is 100% accurate - "irrefutable proof that Baker wasn't heading for the TSBD" is how you put it. Others disagree with your photo-analysis... you may well have 'proved' it to yourself but that is not the same as proving it irrefutably to everyone else... I can look at the clip and your 'photo-analysis' and see what you are seeing and I can understand how you have drawn your conclusion...

Yes, it is my believe that the pair walking away are Shelley & Lovelady. Can I prove it unequivocally? No I can't! But I have reasons to believe it that go beyond the clip in question...

You have given 3 reasons why you see a problem with the scenario of it being Shelley/Lovelady walking away in the clip...

1) That Lovelady can still be seen on the steps.
2) A pattern visible on the alleged Shelley's jacket
3) Shelley's height is a few inches shorter than Lovelady

Well, on point 1) you have also conceeded that that is your opinion and you might be someone else, on point 2) the 'visible pattern' you talk about has been discerned from a image that isn't exactly clear to start with and on point 3) as far as I know Robert Prudhomme has not yet got concrete proof of what Shelley's height actually was.

*On the subject of Shelley's height, there could be any number of reasons why it could appear that the man on the left is taller than the man on the right when in actually fact he is the same height or less. Shoes could be different, hair could be blowing up, could be a camber on the street, might be craning his neck up to see something, the other could be craning his neck down to see something... could be one of those things, a number of those things, or none of those things!

Bill shelley 1945.JPG

Does Shelley in that photo look particulary small? I think he looks about an average height there.

Anyway, again, don't get me wrong, I think it is great that you are thinking things through

5 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

It is these things that got me rethinking my position on the pair walking down the extension. And this is what got me to thinking that maybe Shelley and Lovelady got it right when they testified that they didn't leave the steps for three minutes, waiting for Gloria Calvery. The photo-analysis is the nail in the coffin.

I understand why those things got you rethinking your position on that... wait a second, earlier you said that you weren't holding what Shelley and Lovelady testified to (the 3 minute delay) as being 100% accurate and yet here you are holding that up as being 100% accurate. And backing it up by saying that the (you mean, YOUR) photo-analysis is the 'nail in the coffin'. Even just by considering that the clip ends 2.5 minutes before you think Shelley/Lovelady left the steps should show that it is not a 'nail in the coffin' of anything... even if you are right that Lovelady was still on the steps and/or Baker wasn't running into the building, for all you know, 2 seconds after the clip that is what happened.

 

Earlier I said, and I quote, " On the one hand you are holding up the testimony of both Shelley & Lovelady as being witnesses who are 100% accurate with their timing of 3 minutes - have you considered just how many other witnesses have to be totally wrong to make that work? I could give you about 10 straight off the bat!"

Your response was,

5 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:


That is precisely what I asked for in my thread Maybe Shelley & Lovelady didn't lie after all.

Baker lied. Truly lied. And the WC put a lie in Victoria Adams testimony. That's the premise the thread began with. Because these three things are accepted as fact by the numerous researchers who believe the 2nd-floor encounter never occurred.

In my thread I asked for any difficulties/contradictions created by Shelley's and Lovelady's 3-minute testimony. I asked because 2nd-floor-encounter critics generally believe that Shelley and Lovelady lied too. I don't think they did. And I don't believe they are mistaken in their testimonies.

If you want, go back and post the testimonies of your other seven "off-the-bat" people who are contradicted by Shelley and Lovelady.

Black and white thinking - a person is either truthful or lying - is fallacious, as it negates the alternative of them just being wrong!

For the record I don't think that either Shelley or Lovelady lied at all, I think their timings were wrong. I also think that other people's timings are also wrong (that is to say, not spot-on 100% accurate) - I don't think anyone was lying at all. In fact, my research, I feel, ties it all together relatively nicely imo... and yes it leads to the assumption that both Shelley and Lovelady were well mistaken with their 'timings' (but I have gone quite in depth on that topic in your other thread so no need to re-tread it here).

You ask me to go back and post the 'testimonies' of the other seven 'off-the-bat' people who are contradicted by Shelley and Lovelady... well, first I am not going to go back and re-post everything that has already been posted - it's all there already for people to see for themselves; secondly, it's not necessarily about contradicting Shelley/Lovelady directly in and of itself, it is also about the knock on effect which can be 'indirect'...

In quick terms then,

For your reading of it being 3 minutes after the shots that Shelley/Lovelady left the steps to be accurate then that would mean the following people are wildly wrong Baker, Truly, Adams (who you have already mentioned) (and by extension Styles who came down with Adams), also Dorman and Garner (who came down not long after Adams & Styles and who said in the Martha Stroud letter that she saw Baker and Truly on the stairs), also Frazier and Molina (who saw Truly enter the building approx. 30 seconds after the shots, granted neither saw Baker enter, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen, Frazier stated: " They (police officer) could walk by the way and I was standing there talking to somebody else and didn't see it. ) and Piper (the first people he saw after the shots was Truly/Baker) Also, Sawyer, Barnett, Howard and Harkness ( by the time you have Lovelady/Shelley re-entering the back it had been sealed off)  Also, by further extension it would make a mockery of Fritz, Bookhout, Sims, Boyle, Hosty, Sorrels, Leavelle etc and Allman and Oswald himself... and by extension also make a total mockery of McWatters, Blesdoe and Whaley...

5 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

What I have highlighted here in red is factually incorrect. Baker was roughly 6 feet from the sidewalk on his last step. If you and Bill had bothered to check out my photo-analysis you guys would know that.

And there definitely is evidence... nay, proof... that Baker was not going to the TSBD steps. Because the video shows he had already passed them on his final step.

First, I have checked out your 'photo-analysis' more times than you could probably imagine! Secondly, please point me in the direction where I said that Baker's last step was on to the sidewalk - well, seen as I have not made mention of it at all, why do you feel the need to refute ME on a point I never made!

Evidence? Proof? The video shows he had already passed them on his final step? (that final step that you have put at 16ft away from the steps!) That is your opinion - fine! Even if you are correct, how do you know that one second later Baker didn't realise his 'error' and correct it and do exactly what he said he did...

... also, if Baker's original 'plan' was to go to another destination (that wasn't the TSBD) why not park his motorcycle nearer to there instead of where he did put it (across from the entrance to the TSBD)...

5 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

I have no idea what this is referring to. If it is referring to the idea that the 2nd floor encounter never occurred -- or anything else for that matter --  well then so what? Is David Lifton supposed to be the walking, talking CT Bible?

Funnily enough, I helpfully added the link to the full comment so that anybody could go and see for themselves exactly what it was referring to and in what context it was said... the fact that you have 'no idea what this is referring to' speaks absolute volumes to me. And the 'well then so what? and 'Is David Lifton supposed to be the walking, talking CT Bible?" also speaks absolute volumes to me...

Regards

 

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I just noticed an EDIT you had done to one of your earlier comments...

14 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

EDIT: If your point is that I was disputing a comment of yours that wasn't the main point of your post... well, I don't see anything wrong with doing that. My intention is to always point out a fallacy when it is clearly that. For the benefit of newbies. Others who disagree with my assessment are free to do the same.

Oh for crying out loud...

My point was that you were disputing a point that didn't need disputing in the first place as it was irrelevant to the topic at hand. The topic at hand was the timing of the clip. The other part was an aside, and, anyway, as it stated both sides (ie some people believe it, others don't - and well that is a fact, some people do believe it and others don't) then by definition there is no point to dispute - the point stands! It is a statement (of fact), there is no contention, there is no argument being put forward, and not being part of an argument means it can't, by definition, be fallacious!

Here's a quote from RationalWiki...

Quote

One common error when first learning about logical fallacies is to fail to realise that a fallacy can only be present if it is used as part of an argument

Also...

The actual issue at hand was the timing of the clip! By you introducing the argument of ' photo-analytical proof that  Baker ran right past the TSBD entrance', despite it not being argued against in the first place, you detracted from the actual issue at hand - in other words, your post was disruptive and prevented further discussion of the issue at hand.

Well, on that note, here is another quote from RationalWiki

Quote

Fallacious argument style: An argument in which one speaker uses unfair, manipulative, or disruptive tactics to prevent actual discussion of the issue.

*I rest my case!

 

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10 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

 

17 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

It is these things that got me rethinking my position on the pair walking down the extension. And this is what got me to thinking that maybe Shelley and Lovelady got it right when they testified that they didn't leave the steps for three minutes, waiting for Gloria Calvery. The photo-analysis is the nail in the coffin.

I understand why those things got you rethinking your position on that... wait a second, earlier you said that you weren't holding what Shelley and Lovelady testified to (the 3 minute delay) as being 100% accurate ....

That's right, I'm not!

and yet here you are holding that up as being 100% accurate.

How so? Just because Shelley & Lovelady's testimony and other evidence influenced my position on something? Give me a break! Every thinking person's opinions are influenced by evidence.

What you say here is illogical and petty. And you're putting words in my mouth.

 

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10 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

You ask me to go back and post the 'testimonies' of the other seven 'off-the-bat' people who are contradicted by Shelley and Lovelady... well, first I am not going to go back and re-post everything that has already been posted - it's all there already for people to see for themselves;

No, it's not there! There's just page after page of you and Trejo trying to make the timing of all the witnesses work out.

secondly, it's not necessarily about contradicting Shelley/Lovelady directly in and of itself, it is also about the knock on effect which can be 'indirect'...

 

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10 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

For your reading of it being 3 minutes after the shots that Shelley/Lovelady left the steps to be accurate then that would mean the following people are wildly wrong Baker, Truly, Adams (who you have already mentioned) (and by extension Styles who came down with Adams), also Dorman and Garner (who came down not long after Adams & Styles and who said in the Martha Stroud letter that she saw Baker and Truly on the stairs), also Frazier and Molina (who saw Truly enter the building approx. 30 seconds after the shots, granted neither saw Baker enter, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen, Frazier stated: " They (police officer) could walk by the way and I was standing there talking to somebody else and didn't see it. ) and Piper (the first people he saw after the shots was Truly/Baker) Also, Sawyer, Barnett, Howard and Harkness ( by the time you have Lovelady/Shelley re-entering the back it had been sealed off)  Also, by further extension it would make a mockery of Fritz, Bookhout, Sims, Boyle, Hosty, Sorrels, Leavelle etc and Allman and Oswald himself... and by extension also make a total mockery of McWatters, Blesdoe and Whaley...

 

I'm going to copy this list over to my Maybe Shelley & Lovelady didn't lie after all thread so that these people's testimonies can be explored.

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12 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

... please point me in the direction where I said that Baker's last step was on to the sidewalk - well, seen as I have not made mention of it at all, why do you feel the need to refute ME on a point I never made!


I didn't refute you.... I refuted Bill Miller. Because you quoted him and stated that what he said was "apt." You didn't bother to specify what in the quote was apt. So I read the whole thing and responded. Part of what you quoted Bill saying was factually incorrect. And I corrected it.

Somehow you mistook that for me correcting you.

If that wasn't the part that you thought was "apt," then you should have said which part was apt.

I will copy the exchange here to refresh your memory.

 

23 hours ago, Alistair Briggs said:

Anyway, at this point I would like to quote two other comments from the other thread you linked to earlier as I think both are quite apt here...

First, a comment made by Bill Miller. in direct response to something you said...

Quote

Baker heard the first shot while on Houston and turned onto Elm where he then parked his cycle a few feet short of the stop-light. He paused for a moment and looked down the street to see people falling to the ground and proceeded to run towards the steps of the TSBD. His last leap is onto the sidewalk in front of the steps. One could say Baker was undecided as to which  building the shots came from (Dal-tex or TSBD) and chose one at the last second if they like. All I am saying is that there is no evidence that he was going anywhere but to steps in my view.

What I have highlighted here in red is factually incorrect. Baker was roughly 6 feet from the sidewalk on his last step. If you and Bill had bothered to check out my photo-analysis you guys would know that.

 

Edited by Sandy Larsen
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On 1/22/2017 at 10:37 AM, Chris Davidson said:

The time it takes for Wiegman panning back to the TSBD after the 313 head shot, until the Hester sync = 21seconds.

 

Bell films Wiegman filming the Hesters. The sync point between Bell and Wiegman is Hester stepping up onto the Colonade.

 

Bell continuously films afterwards for 1.3 seconds and  picks up Wiegman starting to rise for his  run down the knoll.

 

Gerda’s dual-sync of Couch/Darnell shows both Wiegman and Baker in there respective runs.

 

There is 3.5 seconds of missing footage from the Wiegman sequence.

 

Take those 3.5 seconds and apply that to Wiegman after we see him start to rise in Bell and to

Baker before we see him in Gerda’s dual-sync.

 

Baker’s run to the curb equals 4 seconds.

 

This total = approx 30 seconds.

 

Chris,

Thanks for this useful time calculation.  Combined with the photographic data provided by Alistair, I am now ready to ponder the possibility that Prayer Man might actually be Lee Harvey Oswald (LHO).

First and foremost, the Prayer Man photograph clearly occurs before the TSBD is sealed off -- which was about 12:40 PM.  This opens the plausibility.

Secondly, however, insofar as LHO (as Prayer Man) would have recognized Officer Baker running toward the building -- isn't it odd that LHO followed Baker by going back into the building and climbing up to the 2nd floor?   Yet it is not impossible; because LHO personally had nothing to hide.  (Perhaps he was waiting for a car that had not yet appeared.  We don't know yet.) 

Thirdly, LHO had time to get to the 2nd floor before Baker and Truly.  This is explained by the WC testimony of both Baker and Truly, namely, that they stood at the ground floor elevator for almost a minute, trying to get it to work.  During that time Truly asked Baker why he wanted to get to the roof, because Truly believed the shots came from the Grassy Knoll.  Baker didn't argue with him, but only insisted to be taken to the roof immediately.  That is not much talk, but they both agreed they had that short conversation there.  That seems to be plenty of time for somebody who knows the TSBD, i.e. LHO, to walk up one flight of stairs.

Fourth, if LHO was Prayer Man, and if Prayer Man is actually holding a Coke (rather than praying) then LHO would not need extra time to buy a Coke before he was rudely stopped by Officer Baker near the 2nd floor kitchen.

This is all plausible -- not at all far-fetched.   LHO was cool, calm and collected -- which doesn't prove he wasn't involved with the JFK conspirators -- only that (1) he had practiced being cool and calm under pressure; and (2) he personally had nothing to hide, since he personally had done nothing wrong.

Nevertheless, the shock of Officer Baker pointing a gun at his heart there on the TSBD 2nd floor would make anybody think twice; so it is easy to see why LHO made his way back to his room at 1026 North Beckley to pick up his handgun.

 Regards,
--Paul Trejo

Edited by Paul Trejo
1026
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Just now, Sandy Larsen said:

What you are holding is that YOUR photo-analysis is 100% accurate - "irrefutable proof that Baker wasn't heading for the TSBD" is how you put it. Others disagree with your photo-analysis... you may well have 'proved' it to yourself but that is not the same as proving it irrefutably to everyone else.

I am 100% confident in my Baker photo-analysis. I would bet my house on it.

Still, I understand that not everybody can see what others see. I also understand that some people don't want to see what others see because of their biases. I am talking about people in general including myself.

But I believe I make a greater effort than most in keeping an open mind regarding other possibilities and new evidence. That I've changed my position several times on a variety of assassination topics is proof of that, IMO.

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1 minute ago, Sandy Larsen said:

I am 100% confident in my Baker photo-analysis. I would bet my house on it.

Still, I understand that not everybody can see what others see. I also understand that some people don't want to see what others see because of their biases. I am talking about people in general including myself.

But I believe I make a greater effort than most in keeping an open mind regarding other possibilities and new evidence. That I've changed my position several times on a variety of assassination topics is proof of that, IMO.

Sandy, I do appreciate your Baker photo-analysis and congratulate you on doing it...

Today I spent quite a lot of time watching your clip (both the one posted here, and the one here) and I would like to ask, for confirmation, the grey line is the kerb and the blue line is the path of Baker?

Regards

 

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On 1/22/2017 at 0:38 PM, Sandy Larsen said:

Here is photo-analytical proof that  Baker ran right past the TSBD entrance:

Officer Marrion Baker's mad dash for the.... Dal-Tex building?

Here is Baker's final step in the video:

Click to enlarge!


The blue line connects where Baker's toes hit the asphalt. The gray line is the edge of the curb. At the end, Baker is running almost parallel to the curb.

This is verified by comparing the blue line and Baker with the red line. The red line connects the footsteps of the woman running toward the sidewalk. (She is hidden at the end of the video by the close-up man on the very right.) It can be seen in previous frames that the woman is running straight to the mailbox on the right of the steps. (Because she is incidentally following the path of her shadow, and her shadow is pointing toward the mailbox.)

Baker's last step crosses over the woman's path, and so he is running close to perpendicular to her path. Therefore, on his last step Baker is roughly in front of the mailbox.

Another confirmation of my claim is that, before Baker's change in course (where he veers to the right) we can see his rear end. We also see the woman's rear end and the rear ends of others crossing the road. HOWEVER, at Baker's final step we no longer see his rear end. Instead we see a side view of him.

Look again... we see the woman's rear end, but the side view of Baker. They are running perpendicular to one another.

BTW, Baker is close to 16 feet away from the stairway as he passes it by. We know this because study of the shadows shows them to be about a long as the person is tall. At the end of the clip, the head of Baker's shadow just barely rises up the face of the curb. So he is about 6 feet from the sidewalk. Than add to that the width of the sidewalk. I am told it is 10 ft wide. (The TSBD steps may extend out into the sidewalk. If so, the distance of that extension should be subtracted from the 16 ft. approximation.)

This is irrefutable proof that Baker wasn't headed for the TSBD. The only question is, when did Baker change his mind, turn around, and go up the steps. Going by Shelley and Lovelady's WC testimonies, he did so about three minutes after the shooting. Which is about 2.5 minutes after the end of the video.

Note that Lovelady can still be seen on the steps at the end of this video. So he cannot be one of the two guys walking toward the railroad yard in this video. This fact corresponds with Shelley's and Lovelady's WC testimonies.

 

 

 

Interesting to note that the two guys in the foreground are looking up a the upper floors of the TSBD.

Were they reacting to the sounds of gunshots coming from up there, or were the watching the pigeons land on the window sills?

--  Tommy :sun

Edited by Thomas Graves
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