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Prayer Man is a Man


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Greg:

thanks for your astute comments on Lee Oswald's movements during and just after assassination. I am glad that you have read the posts in this thread. This thread is just a humble continuation of the original breakthrough thread "Oswald leaving TSBD?" started in 2013.

As far as Prayer Man's identity is concernded, the identification follows the logic of circumstantial evidence. At this stage, we are still at the stage of verification by exclusion. It goes like this: someone has a hypothesis as to who this person could be and compares all recogniseable features in Prayer Man and the candidate person. If only one of the objectively determined features would differ, the hypothesis would be refuted. For instance, if we posit that Prayer Man was Lee Oswald and Prayer Man would show dark skin colour indicating his Afro-American descent, we would refute the hypothesis even if other features (e.g., body height) would match. One disparity between Lee Oswald and Prayer Man would be enough to reject the identity of Prayer Man as Lee Oswald. However, this logic applies to other candidates too: if someone would hypothesise that Prayer Man was a person with blonde hair, such hypothesis could be rejected outright as Prayer Man had dark hair, similarly dark like hair seen in Buell Frazier's figure. 

So far, not one feature in Prayer Man's figure contradicted the possibility that Lee Oswald could be that person. The strength of circumstantial evidence depends on the number of independent observations supporting an explanation or hypothesis. The odds ratio of someone being Prayer Man increases dramatically with every new feature shared by Prayer Man and the candidate person, and after accounting several features, the odds ratio becomes that high that it basically excludes anyone else as a candidate. For instance, if odds ratio would be 700,000:1, that would suggest that only one person in the whole city of Dallas in 1963 had a chance to show simultaneosly all Prayer Man's features.

Analysis of dark spots on Prayer Man's shirt and comparing them with those seen in CE151 is a part of the process of testing all possible features on Prayer Man's figure as to whether they would match Lee Oswald's figure and clothing, and it is a further step following the same logic: find one feature that does not match Prayer Man and refute the candidate. As a bonus, every new feature that proves to be identical in Prayer Man and the candidate, increases the odds ratio substantially, contributing to the strength of circumstantial evidence.

I can agree with many points in your reconstruction of Lee movemevents, including the possibility that he may have entered the second floor lunchroom twice - once to get Coke for his lunch (before the shooting) and then again, after the shooting. Oswald's last presence in the second floor lunchroom is murky and poses a valid question as to whether it actually happened. If the second floor lunchroom encounter between Oswald and Baker happened as reported in official reports, Lee Oswald could only enter the vestibule from the hallway of the second floor offices which would exclude him as the shooter. It remains to be determined whether there was enough time for Lee to leave the doorway when Darnell stopped filming and to reach the vestibule of the second floor just on time to be seen by Officer Baker. Actually, I started a modelling project to reconstruct the trajectories of all players (Truly, Baker, Oswald, Styles, Adams, Garner), however, the progress is just too slow due to my current work load. It should be also pointed out that Lee could not just sit in the second floor lunchroom during the shooting and encounter Baker there as proposed by some researchers because Officer Baker would not be able to spot him; Baker could only see a figure of someone moving at the moment when he (Baker) stepped on the platform of the second floor and the other person would be still in the small vestibule leading to the lunchroom. Baker could not see anyone in the lunchroom itself from any point at Baker's trajectory. If Lee was walking through the vestibule just to enter the lunchroom, he only could be coming from the second floor office area (hallway) and that path would lead to the glass door area in the first floor. 

Having high-resolution, e.g. 4K, copies of Darnell film would certainly strengthen the possibility of revealing Prayer Man's identity. I did contact Gary Mack back in 2016 and received the same response you quote in your post. I am not sure if I have enough resources and time to pursue the issue at this moment. My plan would be visit the Sixth Floor museum to both inspect the copy on display (supposedly a better one compared to what we all use), show them the work done so far, and see what would be the best way forwards. However, this may need to wait for still some time until I will be able engage into JFKA research more. However, even if we acquire high-resolution copy of Darnell film, I am afraid that Prayer Man's identity could still be solved only on the basis of circumstantial evidence.

 

 

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Andrej Stancak
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On 9/7/2020 at 12:03 AM, Denis Morissette said:

Can you work on this color photo taken about 20 minutes after the shooting?

B4088084-AB57-440A-BDD8-43396A3F0251.jpeg

This lady looks an awful lot like PP . You have the dark shirt rolled up, you have a long sleeve T in a lighter colour protruding further down the arm, you have what appears to be a dark strap on PP's left wrist, you have long dark hair both behind the ear area and extending under the ear and you have the diminutive size relative to the people around him/her. There have been some very objective posts made which we should celebrate, on this matter. However... despite some fairly forensic examination of the shirt everyone seems to ignore the dark matter behind and under the ear. 

 Another matter brushed over slightly is that PP seems to have been there for a decent amount of time and Buell Frazier categorically states that it isn't Oswald and has been very specific about who was on the steps over the years. Given that he worked with, trained, rode with , ate with and potentially socialised with LHO, and LHO was probably the most significant figure in his life, and certainly the most important person that day/...... don't you think he would have remembered seeing him? I mean.... he's literally a meter away and is there for a while , Fraziers view is not obstructed in any way and he has perfect eyesight. I just can't believe that he would not see effectively this best mate given the distance and duration of time spent. 

 IMO.... if the lady in the image above was claimed to be PP, and everyone agreed that Oswald was lets say, in the lunch room, then this would be a home run done deal, no questions asked. That lady matches perfectly, it is only the willingness of researchers to believe that its Oswald that changes things. 

 Going back to the details and forensic analysis of aspects of PP that could suggest LHO-ness. What about analysing the aspects that don't ? Light grey trousers ? the obvious long hair below and behind the ear and what appears to be a long sleeve T shirt under the dark shirt ? 

In my opinion.... It may not be the lady in the image above, but unless Frazier is in on the plot and the best xxxx / actor I've ever seen then its not Oswald. The person on the stairs in Darnell doesn't play any part in the events that unfold that day and has only become of interest because there is some remote possibility that it may be LHO, which in one huge swoop would prove conspiracy, just like Lovelady being Oswald and Altgens having had some major alteration. It is certainly very good practice to forensically review any lead or anomaly but personally I believe this is a dead end.

 Thats my personal view of the PP/PM/LHO debate, I hope I haven't upset anyone but I believe that counter arguments are always valid. 

 

On 1/12/2021 at 8:34 AM, Andrej Stancak said:

John:

agreed. Both Prayer Man and Lee Oswald had hairline patterns of the same category - Type II according to Norwood's classification of male baldness patterns (Norwood, O.T., Male pattern baldness: Classification and incidence. Southern Medical Journal, 11: 1359-1365, 1975).

 

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Hi Greg,

 

Very reasonable. It is my unreliable opinion that we have yet to determine the culpability of Oswald. In your own analysis you have Oswald acting to avoid contact in the TBSD, so the obvious question is why? He almost certainly had links to intelligence and perhaps mistrusted the DPD when it came to blowing whatever cover story he was acting under. I find the idea persuasive that Oswald had a sudden realisation in the TBSD that, whatever he was doing covertly, was somehow linked to the assassination. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Hi Greg,

 

Very reasonable. It is my unreliable opinion that we have yet to determine the culpability of Oswald. In your own analysis you have Oswald acting to avoid contact in the TBSD, so the obvious question is why? He almost certainly had links to intelligence and perhaps mistrusted the DPD when it came to blowing whatever cover story he was acting under. I find the idea persuasive that Oswald had a sudden realisation in the TBSD that, whatever he was doing covertly, was somehow linked to the assassination. 

 

Eddy:

I wrote an essay on what could be Lee Oswald's awareness of assassination plans titled "Symptoms of foreknowldge"

https://thejfktruthmatters.wordpress.com/

After writing this blog post, I happened to read the book "JFK. The Second Plot" by Matthew Smith (1992). This book outlined the possibility that Lee Oswald knew nothing about the plot itself because he was tasked with another plot: to travel to Cuba from Redbird airfield on Friday afternoon, with JFK's visit (not his killing) being used as a distractor covering the airplane departure. Oswald's movements in the Depository building including his early leaving the building could be a part of his planned meeting with a contact in the Texas Theatre who would take him to Redbird airfield, so he was maybe told. It was quite essential in Lee's framing that a spot at which he could be located was known to the conspirators.

That said, if Lee Oswald stood in the doorway as Prayer Man, it still could be that he was captured by Darnell during the moments of his realisation that his "second plot" was related to the assassination itself.

I may need to write an addendum to "Symptoms of foreknowledge" to cover also the second plot possibility.

 

Edited by Andrej Stancak
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Andrej, I don't know if you have seen it but it not I would refer you to the recent work extending Matthew Smith's Red Bird leads which David Boylan and I have done, you will find two several post on my blog related to "Red Bird Leads" including a link to extended interviews on two shows with Chuck Ochelli.  We also did two presentations on this at the recent JFK Lancer conference and there will be a lengthy monograph on both leads going up on MFF in the first quarter.  

I suspect you will want to consider what is in Red Bird Lead#2 in respect to your "Symptoms" piece.

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21 minutes ago, Larry Hancock said:

Andrej, I don't know if you have seen it but it not I would refer you to the recent work extending Matthew Smith's Red Bird leads which David Boylan and I have done, you will find two several post on my blog related to "Red Bird Leads" including a link to extended interviews on two shows with Chuck Ochelli.  We also did two presentations on this at the recent JFK Lancer conference and there will be a lengthy monograph on both leads going up on MFF in the first quarter.  

I suspect you will want to consider what is in Red Bird Lead#2 in respect to your "Symptoms" piece.

Larry:

I remember reading your research on Red Bird airfield events within the time frame of assassination. I will surely refresh - here I wanted to quote the book which was perhaps the first to phrase and support with some evidence pertaining to the second plot hypothesis. Thanks for reminding me to check your follow up research.

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What is Prayer Man doing in this gif courtesy of Chris Davidson?

PM-davidson-gif-possible-camera-flash.gi

Some images taken from this gif:

pm-davidson-gif-camera-flash.jpg

Well, the answer to the question is that he is doing the same thing that we see him doing on Elm Street in the John Martin film.  Taking pictures.

Wesley Buell Frazier is seen in the film standing next to Prayer Man/Oswald.  Frazier denies that Oswald was there.  I don't find Frazier credible in most of his statements based on this.  Obviously, Oswald did not trust him either.  When he went back to Irving the night before the assassination, it was to get a camera.  Not Curtain rods.  What he told Frazier was curtain rods to throw him off what he was doing.  I suspect Oswald was told to film the motorcade.  This was a task to hold him at the TSBD at the right moment. 

Meanwhile, while Prayer Man/Oswald was outside the building another Oswald was inside the TSBD and was on the 6th floor faking the assassination so that the man shot at the Dallas Police Station could be framed.    

 

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On 9/7/2020 at 12:03 AM, Denis Morissette said:

Can you work on this color photo taken about 20 minutes after the shooting?

B4088084-AB57-440A-BDD8-43396A3F0251.jpeg

 

22 minutes ago, John Butler said:

What is Prayer Man doing in this gif courtesy of Chris Davidson?

PM-davidson-gif-possible-camera-flash.gi

Some images taken from this gif:

pm-davidson-gif-camera-flash.jpg

Well, the answer to the question is that he is doing the same thing that we see him doing on Elm Street in the John Martin film.  Taking pictures.

Wesley Buell Frazier is seen in the film standing next to Prayer Man/Oswald.  Frazier denies that Oswald was there.  I don't find Frazier credible in most of his statements based on this.  Obviously, Oswald did not trust him either.  When he went back to Irving the night before the assassination, it was to get a camera.  Not Curtain rods.  What he told Frazier was curtain rods to throw him off what he was doing.  I suspect Oswald was told to film the motorcade.  This was a task to hold him at the TSBD at the right moment. 

Meanwhile, while Prayer Man/Oswald was outside the building another Oswald was inside the TSBD and was on the 6th floor faking the assassination so that the man shot at the Dallas Police Station could be framed.    

 

This lady has a camera and matches the Darnell images perfectly. I personally see Frazier as extremely reliable. If you watch his many interviews he does not seem at all like the kind to fabricate or remain faithful to a L.i.E. There is simply no evidence of him being unreliable or dishonest. It may of course be true so I support objective enquiry, as always. 

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Jake,

B4088084-AB57-440A-BDD8-43396A3F0251.jpeg

Does this lady have a balding hair pattern which I believe Andrej classified as a type 2 balding pattern?  Harvey Oswald, the man shot at the DPD does.  The lady has far too much hair to be Prayer Man.

I deem Frazier as unreliable as far as the truth goes in who was standing in the door way of the TSBD during and after the assassination. 

I don't know who the person in the doorway is in Altgens 6 known as Doorway Man.  It is my opinion that Doorway Man was not Billie Lovelady.  Prayer Man and Doorway Man are not female.  Sylvia Meagher believed there was another person involved with the name of Alex Hidell.  She believed that Hidell was a real person and not an assumed disguise name.

One could speculate that the real name of the person shot at the DPD was Alex Hidell from Belarus, Russia.  

The TSBD facts suggest there was more than one Oswald there that day.  It's Harvey and Lee.  The Oswald Project.

I don't know how many Oswalds there were as part of a government run program.  Or, how many other Doppleganger duos that were used by the government.  As far as I know this is the only one to come to light.  From Harvey and Lee:  

Frank Wisner and World War II Refugees


"Frank Wisner was a Wall Street lawyer and during WW II worked for the Office of Strategic Services (predecessor of the CIA). After World War II ended thousands of Eastern European refugees were brought to the United States under his supervision. National Security Council (NSC) records show that Wisner, the CIA's director of clandestine operations, oversaw the re-location of thousands of anti-Communist exiles to the United States as a means of rewarding them for conducting secret operations against the Soviets. Wisner became the CIA and State Department’s expert on European war refugees, and secretly subsidized the refugee relief organizations that brought these Eastern Bloc refugees to the United States throughout the 1940s and early 1950s.

Wisner and his group recognized they could use these Eastern European immigrant's knowledge, customs, and familiarity with their respective homelands. Wisner asked the National Security Council (NSC) to sanction the “systematic” use of such refugees, and they (the NSC) agreed. The NSC soon issued a top-secret intelligence directive (NSCID No. 14), which even today remains "classified," that authorized both the FBI and the CIA to find and jointly exploit the knowledge, experience, and talents of well over 200,000 Eastern European refugees resettled in the USA. The CIA soon contacted the Displaced Person's Commission (DPC), which worked closely with the leaders of refugee organizations in the USA. DPC chairman Ugo Carusi sent a memorandum to all refugee organizations in the USA that read: “We would like to advise that the U.S. Commission [DPC] has a formal agreement with the CIA to cooperate in every possible way to facilitate their programs. It is, therefore, altogether desirable that local representatives of the voluntary agencies and State Commissions and Committees make available to fully identified CIA agents the addresses of displaced persons.”

 

 I put Allen Dulles as the mastermind of this use of foreign refugees.  Frank Wisner was a henchman of Dulles.  I credit Dulles as the man who originated this idea from his work of saving refugees from the German Military at the beginning of our involvement in WWII and after WWII.

How many pairs of individuals similar to Harvey and Lee were made by the government is simply speculation?  But, why make one when there were a host of children refugees available for use from countries other than Russia to make into doppelganger spy units?

 

 

 

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On 9/6/2020 at 4:03 PM, Denis Morissette said:

Can you work on this color photo taken about 20 minutes after the shooting?

B4088084-AB57-440A-BDD8-43396A3F0251.jpeg

Denis is it correct you are identifying the right photo as taken 20 minutes after the shooting? Where are you getting the black and white photo on the left? Is that woman identified, what are those vehicles in the background, and is it verified that photo is from Dealey Plaza that day? At about what time? 

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2 hours ago, John Butler said:

Jake,

B4088084-AB57-440A-BDD8-43396A3F0251.jpeg

Does this lady have a balding hair pattern which I believe Andrej classified as a type 2 balding pattern?  Harvey Oswald, the man shot at the DPD does.  The lady has far too much hair to be Prayer Man.

I deem Frazier as unreliable as far as the truth goes in who was standing in the door way of the TSBD during and after the assassination. 

I don't know who the person in the doorway is in Altgens 6 known as Doorway Man.  It is my opinion that Doorway Man was not Billie Lovelady.  Prayer Man and Doorway Man are not female.  Sylvia Meagher believed there was another person involved with the name of Alex Hidell.  She believed that Hidell was a real person and not an assumed disguise name.

One could speculate that the real name of the person shot at the DPD was Alex Hidell from Belarus, Russia.  

The TSBD facts suggest there was more than one Oswald there that day.  It's Harvey and Lee.  The Oswald Project.

I don't know how many Oswalds there were as part of a government run program.  Or, how many other Doppleganger duos that were used by the government.  As far as I know this is the only one to come to light.  From Harvey and Lee:  

Frank Wisner and World War II Refugees


"Frank Wisner was a Wall Street lawyer and during WW II worked for the Office of Strategic Services (predecessor of the CIA). After World War II ended thousands of Eastern European refugees were brought to the United States under his supervision. National Security Council (NSC) records show that Wisner, the CIA's director of clandestine operations, oversaw the re-location of thousands of anti-Communist exiles to the United States as a means of rewarding them for conducting secret operations against the Soviets. Wisner became the CIA and State Department’s expert on European war refugees, and secretly subsidized the refugee relief organizations that brought these Eastern Bloc refugees to the United States throughout the 1940s and early 1950s.

Wisner and his group recognized they could use these Eastern European immigrant's knowledge, customs, and familiarity with their respective homelands. Wisner asked the National Security Council (NSC) to sanction the “systematic” use of such refugees, and they (the NSC) agreed. The NSC soon issued a top-secret intelligence directive (NSCID No. 14), which even today remains "classified," that authorized both the FBI and the CIA to find and jointly exploit the knowledge, experience, and talents of well over 200,000 Eastern European refugees resettled in the USA. The CIA soon contacted the Displaced Person's Commission (DPC), which worked closely with the leaders of refugee organizations in the USA. DPC chairman Ugo Carusi sent a memorandum to all refugee organizations in the USA that read: “We would like to advise that the U.S. Commission [DPC] has a formal agreement with the CIA to cooperate in every possible way to facilitate their programs. It is, therefore, altogether desirable that local representatives of the voluntary agencies and State Commissions and Committees make available to fully identified CIA agents the addresses of displaced persons.”

 

 I put Allen Dulles as the mastermind of this use of foreign refugees.  Frank Wisner was a henchman of Dulles.  I credit Dulles as the man who originated this idea from his work of saving refugees from the German Military at the beginning of our involvement in WWII and after WWII.

How many pairs of individuals similar to Harvey and Lee were made by the government is simply speculation?  But, why make one when there were a host of children refugees available for use from countries other than Russia to make into doppelganger spy units?

 

 

 

Thanks John, the Hidell as a real person is an interesting thought and not one I've heard before I'll be honest. I've read Harvey and Lee and am a big fan although I'm still not convinced that we have images of 'Lee', they just look too similar ( the images). Although the dental record / images of Oswald exhumed teeth JA has uncovered do add some weight to the theory. I like to think of a series of imposters over the 18 month period leading up to the assassination ( not all for the assassination by any means) and a paper trail leading back in a complex spy program. In fact I'd be surprised if the US didn't have such a program during the Cold War, I know I would if I was in charge back then. Oswald statement , possibly last one ' everyone will know who I really am now' does make me wonder. A strange statement for a would be political assassin ( remember that Craig states he said it in a mournful and regretful way) . 

 The hair - I disagree, the ' male pattern baldness' doesn't look dissimilar to the hairstyle of the lady at all. Obviously she isn't receding but she has a fairly high hairline and the style she has her hair in creates a very similar effect to a receding male. You certainly can't rule her out because the photo is just too blurred.Andrej quite objectively outlines a procedure for ruling out or not, but it doesn't apply to other people ?  But back to the blob of black ( same tone as hair) behind the ear and below the ear... we can't ignore it if we're going to suggest we can see slight stains on the image from Darnell like we see in CE150, can we ? I mean the figure appears to have long hair, and that hasn't even been address by LHO as PM advocates.  I think I may have to agree to disagree with most on this thread, I just ask that the same rules are applied to other suggested candidates as they are to LHO and that good witnesses like Frazier aren't thrown under the bus to fit a narrative. I think Frazier is a great witness and a good guy in all this, as he appears. 

 I do also believe like you that there was to an extent a Harvey and Lee, or an imposter maybe. Various people saw a lookalike get into the Rambler and run away from the scene. However more importantly we have Randolph Carr and Ed .... ( sorry can't recall his name, man by picket fence) who saw a dark complected man in a hat on the sixth floor, the Carr saw the dark man get in the Rambler, drive to Record street and then to Elm and pick up the white male . 

 In addition , having read Armstrongs article on Oswalds ability to speak Russian I am even more convinced that he spoke English as a learned or second language. Furthermore I believe that his use and mastery of the language is the most obvious way to red pill LN'ers. Its just not feasible that he taught himself superb spoke Russian by age 19, then amazingly forgot it all when he went to Russia, then came back to the US with Russian so good that at least one Russian couldn't tell if he was Russian or not. My brother has a Russian wife and he lives in Germany. I had the pleasure of meeting many exchange students from Europe and have worked with many more in London.... You can always tell.... even the very best Swedes ( they speak the best English) after 10 years in the UK still have a slight twang. in addition... his interview on NO radio... he sounds almost German at times, or Eastern European. 

 incidentally... has this man being identified ?! he certainly fits the description of the driver of the rambler and potentially the dark man on the sixth floor ....

  https://www.baylor.edu/content/services/photo_popup.php?photoid=77293&gallery_id=3767 

Edited by Jake Hammond
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7 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

Denis is it correct you are identifying the right photo as taken 20 minutes after the shooting? Where are you getting the black and white photo on the left? Is that woman identified, what are those vehicles in the background, and is it verified that photo is from Dealey Plaza that day? At about what time? 

I haven't seen that image before at all, I'm just asking the question of whether the same level of scrutiny applies to all potentials and not just LHO ? She sure has a lot going for her as PP. dark shirt rolled up, long sleeve T ( the issue of the darker section of arm below shirt but lighter than the arm is not addresses by PM advocates?), the dark strap on left wrist, the small camera, the hair behind and just under the ear, the small size, the potential for a bangle of some sort on the right wrist ( reflection on the wrist item is just too large to be a small bracelet).  Pretty decent fit. But no I have no idea where its from I'm sorry. 

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14 hours ago, Andrej Stancak said:

Oswald's last presence in the second floor lunchroom is murky and poses a valid question as to whether it actually happened. If the second floor lunchroom encounter between Oswald and Baker happened as reported in official reports, Lee Oswald could only enter the vestibule from the hallway of the second floor offices which would exclude him as the shooter. It remains to be determined whether there was enough time for Lee to leave the doorway when Darnell stopped filming and to reach the vestibule of the second floor just on time to be seen by Officer Baker.

I think I may have something to add on the timing matter analysis. I think a major perceived objection to the PM = LHO proposition is the second-story encounter, assumed improbable with the timing. One solution is to disappear the second-story encounter. The major problem with that is Truly, Baker, Reid, and Oswald himself said it happened in their various statements and testimony, and I cannot fathom Truly and Baker being suborned to knowingly perjure themselves under oath and stick to that story for the rest of their lives, for such a minor convoluted reason. Remember Rube Goldberg drawings of overly complex mechanical devices to accomplish simple tasks? That is what notions that Truly, Baker, and Reid--three of them, or two following one who hallucinated--lying under oath and sticking to it for life, all to imperfectly get some very remote twig of a story altered on behalf of unseen micromanaging conspirators . . . I think it much more likely that witting lying under oath in the WC testimony was relatively uncommon, that the problems with witness testimonies are generic to witness testimonies filled with mistakes and malleable memories and wishful thinking and confusions and wanting to give the right answers and retroactive reconstructions and exaggerations, etc. . . . but very little wilful lying and when that did happen, even less if any suborning of that by some unseen hidden hand, i.e. any specific cases of lying under oath, to the extent such happened, for the most part were free-lanced or wildcat for personal reasons. The exception would be occasional cases of witnesses who are pathological XXXXX, making up entire stories out of whole cloth, which happens, but those cases are for the most part recognized and discounted and not typical of most witnesses and not at issue here. So, I just cannot see that the second-story encounter testimonies not of one but of four can be rejected on grounds either of mistakes/misunderstandings or of coordinated lifelong wilful lying and perjury. There is no evidence that is how it worked other than circularly as a mechanism to explain perceived anomalies. On the other hand, the contradictions and confusions in news reports from the first couple of days, based on secondhand interviews from people like Ochus Campbell, and reporters' getting facts garbled in stories, are explicable as what happens with news reporting. And the first-day statement of Baker referring to "third or fourth floor" (as I read it) does verify "not on the first floor" but does not mean "not second floor" in reality--because Baker elsewhere shows confusion over floor levels, it happened so fast, that is nitpicking, when that "third or fourth floor" encounter is obviously the encounter that actually happened on the second floor, he just got the floor wrong. There was no lifelong conspired concealment on the part of Truly and Baker in coordination to never let on that there was actually a different mystery figure stopped by Baker on a higher floor. Baker just got the floor level wrong. 

On the other hand, if it is accepted that the second-floor encounter happened as Baker and Truly, also consistent with Mrs. Reid and Oswald, said it did, there may be heretofore-unrecognized support or at least compatibility with Prayer Man being Oswald. Rather than a perceived difficulty with a PM = LHO identification, it may support it, as follows.

The Darnell film shows Baker running and the film stops with Baker almost to the front steps. Since Baker's purpose was to get inside the TSBD and to the top of the building, and since that is what he said he did, there is no basis I can see for supposing he did anything other than that--went up the steps, moments after the film ends. The film shows Prayer Man in that corner at the top landing. Baker rushed through the first set of doors, would have gone right by Prayer Man, gets inside and asks employees nearby where are the stairs. Truly out front saw this and chased after Baker and caught up with him and told Baker who he was (supervisor) and said he would show Baker.

The entire timing of Baker from shots to the second-story encounter was studied and reenacted and (working from memory) the results showed ca. 90 seconds, although Baker said it could have been slightly less than that, possibly as little as ca. 70 seconds, of which ca. 30 seconds (?) was taken up by the motorcycle movement and running to the entrance of the TSBD.

The movements of Oswald, on the assumption that he was Prayer Man, reconstructed earlier, those were not reenacted but I will attempt to give time estimates/guesses. The question is whether Oswald would have been able to get to the second-floor encounter with Baker at the time Baker was there, and I say the answer is not only yes, but a ringing yes.

To reconstruct Oswald's movements (under present scenario of LHO = PM), Oswald sees Baker rush through the doors going inside. That becomes the earliest possible moment Oswald could leave the top landing. But Mrs. Reid, who had been standing out front a little away from the front steps, said after the shooting that she had walked up, which would be the SE stairs, and was still walking and had just reached her desk area (but had not yet sat down) when Oswald went by coming from the vestibule area to the rear second-floor entrance where Baker was. This means Oswald, who went up the SE stairs as his means of getting to the second floor, went up before Mrs. Reid. Since Mrs. Reid did not say she saw him on the stairs ahead of her, he went up before Mrs. Reid got to the stairs. So some seconds before Mrs. Reid's arrival to the SE stairs is the latest possible time Oswald went up those stairs. 

In my reconstruction time must be allowed for Oswald to go to the first-floor domino room first in order to get his gray jacket there, since he is intending to exit the building at this point. I am going to guess 10 seconds to walk there, 3 seconds to go into the room and grab his jacket, and 10 seconds to walk back to the SE stairwell. Then up the SE stairs, 7 seconds, then across diagonally the second floor offices area (where Mrs. Reid's desk is except she is not there yet, and Geneva Hines' desk is except she at this moment is at the Southwestern Publishers' Company office looking out the window at Elm, meaning the office area Oswald is walking has no one in it who sees him cross through). Estimate ca. 10 seconds for Oswald to cross through and get to the rear door that goes out to where Truly and Baker are climbing the stairs

So that by these estimates would be ca. 40 seconds, starting from ca. 0-10 seconds after Baker went through the first front doors. 

If it took ca. 30 seconds for Baker to get on foot inside the first set of doors of the TSBD entrance from the time of the shots, that means ca. 40-60 seconds for Baker to get to the 2nd floor landing of the NW stairs. Although Baker was fast-moving, there are three elements that slowed him down, compared to Oswald who was also fast moving but was moving alone. The first is he had to stop and find someone in TSBD to tell him where stairs were that would go to the top of the building. Truly momentarily appeared, but words had to be exchanged, Truly had to tell him who he was, a few seconds of time Baker is stalled before proceeding. Second, Baker has to wait for Truly to take the lead, instead of just rapidly moving on his own. Truly is an older man, perhaps is still agile but not quite as fast-moving as the younger Baker if Baker were on his own. And, when they move, Baker has to wait for Truly to get a little ahead so Baker can follow, at each stop-and-start. Third, they run toward the stairs but Truly has a better idea and says let's try the elevator, then the inability to get an elevator, the shouting up the elevator shaft, no response, then return to the NW stairs to climb those, Truly going up first, Baker following. All of these factors add seconds--10? 15? 20?--over what it takes Oswald on his own to transverse the same actual distance on the second floor, to arrive at the same meeting point with Baker. 

The key point is they DO meet at the same time. Here is where I offer a new detail (well probably someone before has suggested this in the past 60 years but new for me). It has always been wondered how Truly could have noticed nothing about that second-floor door, but Baker, following behind him, did see Oswald, in a way that drew his attention. Arguments have been built on this, attempts to reconstruct exactly how that happened, or could have happened. Here is what I think happened: it was not just that Baker. looked through a tiny glass pane in a closed door and saw--through that glass pane--Oswald walking away. 

No, Oswald actually started to open the door when he got there, intending to go out (and down the stairs to exit the TSBD through a rear door). (Oswald does not have any coke in hand at this point.) But upon opening the door he comes face to face with the uniformed Baker who is just arriving to that point. Truly did not see this because Oswald had not arrived to open that door when Truly walked by. Oswald's opening the door happened after Truly walked up the stairs but before Baker had walked by. Oswald immediately reversed course and walked away. Baker, seeing this, is (understandably) suspicious and accosts Oswald at gunpoint, with Truly coming down and seeing this too moments later. It was Oswald actually opening the door from the inside which caught Baker's attention, and which did not catch Truly's attention because of when Oswald did that (after Truly had passed, before Baker passed) and from which direction Oswald was opening that door (from inside going out). The significance of this is it explains how Baker saw Oswald but Truly did not at that second floor landing; and it means Oswald arrived with intended exit through that door at exactly the same time as Baker arrived at that landing

The significance of this last point is that, per the reconstruction, the start of Oswald leaving Prayer Man's position to make that exit path (up to the second story, over, down the back stairs, out a rear door) . . . is approximately the same time that Baker entered the TSBD. It could vary by some seconds or tens of seconds but not by much greater scale than that since neither one was signficantly delayedthey each had the same start- and endpoints; and the endpoints happened at exactly the same time; therefore, the startpoint of Oswald and Baker from the entrance to the TSBD was also at approximately the same time.

This agrees with the film evidence, if PM = LHO, in that Baker is seen momentarily about to run up the front steps where Prayer Man is, from which both then end up ca. 60 seconds or so later, meeting at the second-floor rear stairwell landing! And Prayer Man/Oswald (if so) did not leave his position at that top landing of the steps before Baker arrived, and did not leave very long after Baker would have passed by him (because Oswald had to have gone up the SE stairs before Mrs. Reid, which is a time constraint meaning Oswald, if Prayer Man, did not remain there much longer after Baker's arrival.

In fact it is very reasonable that it was Baker rushing past that could have helped trigger Oswald to leave by the means reconstructed which ended up with him almost running out into Baker at the other side of the building, on the second floor.

In other words, there may be a timing argument that, far from arguing against Oswald being Prayer Man (if the second-story encounter happened), or against the second-story encounter (if Oswald is Prayer Man), reinforces or supports the other reasons for the Prayer Man = Oswald identification. 

Loose ends: (1) what about Mrs. Reid seeing Oswald with a coke? Well, she did say that. Notably, Baker did not see Oswald with a coke in his hand, nor did Truly. Nor did Oswald go to the second floor following the shots to get a coke then. But if asked what he was doing there when Baker accosted him (I forget if Oswald was asked that question, probably so since it became part of the narrative and it would be a natural thing for officer Baker to ask), the most natural thing in the world--the obvious thing--would be Oswald would say "I came to get a coke". He is not going to say the true reason, which is he was intending to leave the building. Having failed to make his exit out the back way, and having said (thinking quickly) that he was only up there to get a coke, Oswald buys a coke (to support what he just said). So when he walks by meeting Mrs. Reid who is just arriving walking to her desk, Mrs. Reid sees him with a coke in his hand, which Oswald would then have ditched somewhere on his way out when out of sight before he slipped out the front entrance and left the TSBD.

On physical descriptions. Baker said the man he accosted "on the third or fourth floor" (but which was actually the second), after writing his statement Baker is reported by another officer there to have identified Oswald right there in the police station as the man he had stopped "on the third or fourth floor" (actually the second floor). Baker said he thought the man he accosted (Oswald), was "wearing a light brown jacket" (DPD statement, 11/22/63). Per reconstruction Oswald, prepared to leave the TSBD, had on his gray jacket, and the assumption here is that Baker got the color slightly mistaken but was accurate in the part that Oswald was wearing a jacket. Mrs. Reid, meanwhile, said Oswald came by her, after her return to the office following the shots (so there is no mistaking the timing of this, for Mrs. Reid), wearing a white T-shirt. By the analysis here that was simply wrong, a witness error or mistake, since Oswald was in fact wearing a maroon-reddish shirt over a white T-shirt, and had on a gray jacket over that. Oswald had often worked in a white T-shirt only in the past, but Mrs. Reid's description of the T-shirt on that occasion, moments after Baker saw the same man, as distinguished from Mrs. Reid's seeing Oswald itself, was mistaken, according to this analysis.

Key points in summary: per this reconstruction in which Prayer Man is Oswald, the respective timings of Baker and Oswald in getting from the same Point A (front entrance doors of TSBD) to the same Point B (2nd story rear stairwell door) at the same time, means they both started at approximately the same time from Point A. The reconstructed timing agrees very well within margins of error. The Prayer Man identity as Oswald is not only compatible with but is supported by this reconstruction of Oswald getting to Point B at the same time as Baker. What has seemed to some to argue either against the PM = LHO identification, or the second story encounter having happened, is resolved such that each of these supports the other, and, if this reconstruction holds up, adds support to the PM = LHO identification--because it arguably has the second-floor encounter make better sense than the way the Warren Commission reconstructed it.

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Greg:

By reconstruction I meant a computerised, graphic model of indvidual actors overlaid onto precise floor plans, similar to what Mark Tyler did with his Dealey Plaza model. Else, we risk that our enthusiasm would sway the solution in favor of one possibility. One can write any broad time estimate for any trajectory and say two trajectories intersected at one point, however, it needs to be tested. This can be done by finding a building with identical layout to the Depository 63', or drawing the floor plans with all details on large flat surface and timing the movements of individual actors, or constructing a detailed computer model that considers real floor plans, includes the doors (as those cause delays) and other details, and allows for testing different trajectories and velocities of individual actors. Unless this is done, I would be able to only roughly say that the possibility of Lee leaving the doorway soon after Darnell stopped filming and being spotted by Baker as he (Lee) was entering the second-floor lunchroom could exist. What would be your preferred method to test the first-to-second floor scenario?

For the sake of historical record, I was not the first who raised the possibility of this scenario. Bill Kelley soon after he opened the thread "Oswald leaving TSBD?" suggested this possibility for the first time, possibly in August 2013. There was only one reply to his post, by Sean Murphy, who considered the timing tight but possible.  

Edited by Andrej Stancak
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