PRAYER PERSON - PRAYER MAN OR PRAYER WOMAN? RESEARCH THREAD

[Andrej Stancak]

Lance,

not everyone in the vicinity of the Depository of the building was an employee of TSBD, however, every of the doorway occupants being there during the moments of shooting was an employee. This is evidenced by individual testimonies and the correspondence between the testimonies and visual evidence. You may have noted that Prayer Man was at his spot in Wiegman’s film which we know overlaps with part of the shooting period. The same man continues to be seen in Darnell’s film, he changed only his posture.

As far as the height argument is concerned, it is true that the relative heights of two people standing in a space such as a doorway may provide misleading information about their actual heights due to effects of perspective. You may be interested in my 3D reconstruction of Prayer Man’s location which I have posted earlier in this thread and on my blog. This analysis supports the hypothesis that Mr. Oswald was Prayer Man because the body height of the fitted person could only be 5’9’’. Any person smaller that 5’9’’ would not satisfy the height criterion which criterion can objectively be inferred from Darnell’s still.

https://thejfktruthmatters.wordpress.com/

As far as the hair line is concerned, it may be feasible to overlay a realistically 3D reconstructed head (and body) of Mr. Oswald on Prayer Man’s figure and observe the similarities. I already have such preliminary data, however, I would like to wait with their posting until the full story can be presented. Naturally, this analysis alone would still not be enough as evidence for Prayer Man being Mr. Oswald. To exclude with a reasonable statistical confidence (e.g., probability of P=0.05) that no one else than Mr. Oswald was Prayer Man, the 3D+overlay analysis would need to be done with a large sample of randomly selected human heads (e.g., 500 males and 500 females, age range from 18 to 65, any height). It would then be possible to quantify the goodness of fit of every individual head (one of which would be Mr. Oswald’s head) and to evaluate whether at an adopted confidence level (e.g., better than 5%) would Mr. Oswald’s fit outplay any other person’s fit. It is an objective procedure as the statistical error would be accounted for. This analysis in its outcomes resembles the acoustic analysis performed during the investigation of the House Select Committee which was in terms of probabilities at which different solutions (shots) could have occurred.

In contrast to your opinion, I think the analysis briefly described here would be needed even if we have a better version of Darnell’s film. Viewing a better version of Darnell’ still may be sufficient for e.g., you to be convinced that Prayer Man was Mr. Oswald, however, it would still be a subjective opinion of one observer and would not be enough as a scientifically sound evidence to convince the US law institutions to reopen the case.

The work of researchers aiming to elucidate the identity of Prayer Man is important as it creates further pressure towards revealing all remaining evidence (planned for October 2017) and may prompt those who are in possession of original films and pictures to also put their original materials into public domain. I would like to recall one of Mr. Harold Weisberg’s comments on visual evidence in which he pointed out that allowing the public to view only blurred images was also a part of cover up. The obvious unwillingness of legal owners to provide access to original Wiegman and Darnell films is equal to a continuing cover-up.

Edited September 2, 2016 by Andrej Stancak

[Thomas Graves]

Also, has anyone ever identified the old-looking lady (wearing a black raincoat and a scarf on her head and carrying a large bag / purse) who is waiting to get back into the TSBD in the same Hughes footage that "caught" a neanderthalish-looking Lovelady smoking a cigarette?

Is it possible that she was "Prayer Man" ?

--Tommy

[...]

As to your other speculation, I have a really hard time with the idea that conspirators went to the lengths they did to frame LHO but failed to control his whereabouts at the critical moment.

[...]

Lance,

How could they have controlled Oswald's "whereabouts" without raising his suspicions that he was being set up? Force him to eat with them? Have Big Jack Dougherty follow him around and not let him go outside? Make him wait 10 minutes while the Dr Pepper machine was being refilled? (LOL)

If they told him to wait by the phone or something, how would they know that he would really do that, especially if he were to become suspicious and wanted to be noticeable outside during the motorcade, or just overly curious and wanted to see the most powerful man in the world and his beautiful wife?

I'm wondering why no one on the front steps (especially Frazier, Shelley, or Lovelady) said anything about the "Prayer Man" / "Prayer Woman" back in the corner?

Because they weren't asked?

Or because they told to not volunteer anything about "him" because "him was LHO?"

-- Tommy

Edited September 5, 2016 by Thomas Graves

[Andrej Stancak]

Whilst Prayer Man will remain a subject of fierce debates for a while, may I point for a change to an interesting similarity between the postures of Prayer Man and Mr. Oswald in one of the infamous backyard photographs (right panel) in which he holds “his” rifle and two newspapers in front of his chest. It is highly conceivable that Prayer Man held some objects in his hands, which raises the question about the style of hands and body posturing of Mr. Oswald should he be placed into a Prayer Man situation (both hands holding objects in front of the chest). The two pictures in the left panel show James – a 3D Poser11 human model which I use to model Prayer Man’s posture in Darnell’s still.

Mr. Oswald in the backyard picture has his left leg forwards and bend in the knee joint. His right leg is backwards and firmly stretched. Mr. Oswald’s right hand is slightly higher than his left hand. Interestingly, Prayer Man in Darnell viewed from the front (top left panel) shows some remarkable similarities with the posture of Mr. Oswald in the backyard photograph: Prayer Man’s right hand is slightly above his left hand, his left leg is forwards and bend, and his body is resting on the stretched right leg. Obviously, the ground is flat in the backyard photograph unlike in Darnell’s still where the two legs balance on steps. It is, therefore, of even more interest that the poses of Prayer Man and Mr. Oswald are similar in some major aspects. People’s gestures and postures tend to be similar across situations since they express automatic, subconscious motor plans hard-wired in their brains. Thus, we have one more indication, although a minor one, supporting the view that Prayer Man was Lee Harvey Oswald.

Edited September 2, 2016 by Andrej Stancak

[Sandy Larsen]

Okay Lance, I'll take your challenge.

Hypothesis

Lance says that the plotters would have wanted Oswald NOT to be caught outside the sniper's nest. I think that is a debatable point. I think a point could be made that a wandering Oswald would serve the CIA's goals better. As long as they planted enough evidence to show that Oswald was involved. Because if Oswald was found to be involved but not to be the actual shooter, that would point directly to there being a conspiracy. Wouldn't that serve the CIA's plans even better than making Oswald the lone killer? A conspiracy involving a man who is sympathetic to Russia and Cuba, who writes the Russian Embassy as if he were one of them, and who had recently met with a KGB assassin? A man who, in fact, used to live in Russia?

On the other hand, the U.S. government would do everything in their considerable power to place the blame squarely on the shoulders of the man they had caught (doubtless with the aid of the assassination plotters). Even if they had doubts about his guilt.

Do you see the beauty of the CIA's plan? In the process of making sure LHO was blamed for the assassination, on the U.S. government's dime, the heat would be taken off the real conspirators.

OK, fair enough, you tried. But this is "conspiracy logic," which does not necessarily overlap with actual logic. We are so convinced of a conspiracy that even evidence which points clearly in the opposite direction must be fitted into the supposed conspiracy, even when this requires pounding a 1" round wooden peg into a 1/4" square steel hole.

COME ON, if "they" are going to go to all the trouble of creating the illusion that LHO purchased the rifle, and then all the trouble of planting it on the 6th floor, "they" are damn well going to make sure LHO isn't seen and photographed by 50 people standing on the TSBD steps at the very moment of the assassination.

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

Ergo, PM is simply not LHO. But no, we are so enamored of our conspiracy theory that we must fit every last piece of evidence into it, and thus the conspiracy evolves to suggest that LHO standing on the front steps of the TSBD would actually serve the "their" purposes. What? Hello? If "they" wanted to do what you are suggesting, they would simply have convincingly framed LHO and left rifles and/or cartridges at a couple of other locations.

At the point of the paragraphs I have quoted above, it seems to me that your scenario becomes completely implausible and we end up, once again, with a Rube Goldberg conspiracy that bears no resemblance to any real conspiracy in the history of the world.

If PM is not LHO, this obviously serves the Lone Nut cause since LHO could then have been on the 6th floor shooting JFK. But if PM is not LHO, this to me likewise does not place any serious dent in the more plausible conspiracy theories. My point is simply that, IMHO, the notion that PM is LHO is implausible beyond the vanishing point regardless of whether one is a Lone Nutter or a Conspiracy Theorist.

[Thomas Graves]

[...]

[...]

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

[...]

Hi Sandy,

Question: Are you saying it was "okay" for LHO to be outside, or he had to be outside (in order to be noticed / caught on film, "prove" a Castro-loving, Commied-up conspiracy, and justify the bombing of Cuba and / or Russia)?

[it's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

Some "researchers" claim that the "MC" visible in films and photos taken that day either wasn't a MC, or at least wasn't Oswald's / Hidell's MC. What do you think?

Time now for some humour. Hypothetical Police Statement: "We believe that Oswald loaned his rifle to the assassin and said to him, 'I'm gonna go outside now and watch you kill JFK. Good luck!'"

In your scenario, how could LHO have been plausibly tagged as a "co-conspirator" by the investigators if not for that rifle's being allegedly "found" in the TSBD, and it's being "traceable" to his PO Box? Because someone might fib and say he saw LHO acting as a "lookout"? Because someone saw him take a bottle of Coke up to the assassin?]

BTW, if LHO was determined to have been just a co-conspirator, who would the authorities have said was the shooter? Joe Molina? Jack Dougherty? Or [place name here] .... ?

And why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught or even looked for? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy

EDIT: BTW, I'm just throwing out some ideas here, I don't claim to know the answers. Yet.

Edited September 4, 2016 by Thomas Graves

[Robert Prudhomme]

Ever thought it might have looked suspicious if Oswald wasn't outside, Thomas? Everyone else was (except Dougherty).

[Thomas Graves]

Ever thought it might have looked suspicious if Oswald wasn't outside, Thomas? Everyone else was (except Dougherty).

Hi Bob!,

Copied and pasted here from my last post:

BTW, if LHO was determined to have been just a co-conspirator, who would the authorities have said was the shooter? Joe Molina? Jack Dougherty? Or [place name here] .... ?

And why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught or even looked for? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy sun

[Thomas Graves]

Ever thought it might have looked suspicious if Oswald wasn't outside, Thomas? Everyone else was (except Dougherty).

Hi Bob!,

And believe-it-or-not, I'm starting to believe that the elusive J.E.D., who was a member of the "Crack" ROTC (rifled-up) company at his Sunset High School in 1940-1941, might have "dood da deed," himself.

-- Tommy

Edited September 4, 2016 by Thomas Graves

[Sandy Larsen]

[...]

[...]

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

[...]

Hi Sandy,

Question: Are you saying it was "okay" for LHO to be outside, or he had to be outside (in order to be noticed / caught on film, "prove" a Castro-loving, Commied-up conspiracy, and justify the bombing of Cuba and / or Russia)?

[it's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

Some "researchers" claim that the "MC" visible in films and photos taken that day either wasn't a MC, or at least wasn't Oswald's / Hidell's MC. What do you think?

Time now for some humour. Hypothetical Police Statement: "We believe that Oswald loaned his rifle to the assassin and said to him, 'I'm gonna go outside now and watch you kill JFK. Good luck!'"

In your scenario, how could LHO have been plausibly tagged as a "co-conspirator" by the investigators if not for that rifle's being allegedly "found" in the TSBD, and it's being "traceable" to his PO Box? Because someone might fib and say he saw LHO acting as a "lookout"? Because someone saw him take a bottle of Coke up to the assassin?]

BTW, if LHO was determined to have been just a co-conspirator, who would the authorities have said was the shooter? Joe Molina? Jack Dougherty? Or [place name here] .... ?

Why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy

PS Did ya miss me?

Hi Tommy,

Yes, I did miss you! In fact I welcomed you back in another thread a day or two ago. Maybe you missed it.

I wrote my hypothesis in response to a challenge issued by Lance Payette in Post 326, where he said:

"I defy anyone to posit an elaborate pre-assassination and post-assassination conspiracy that includes the element of LHO standing on the front steps of the TBSD at the time of the assassination."

As I recall, he found it unthinkable that LHO, as the designated patsy, would be allowed to walk around and be witnessed, photographed, or filmed outside the sniper's nest during the shooting.

So I took up his challenge and wrote my hypothesis. What you see above is just part of my hypothesis, but it is the most pertinent part.

In the part not quoted, I surmised that the assassination plotter's most important goal was to eliminate JFK so that a president more to their liking could take charge. And that it was an afterthought and icing on the cake if the could implicate the Soviets and/or Cubans.

So, in answer to your question, it wasn't required for Oswald to be seen outside the snipers nest, but was acceptable... and in fact desirable.

As for whether or not the Carcano was actually found in the TSBD, that's a good question. I do believe that the Mouser was found there. Maybe it was planted, along with the Carcano, in order to indicate a conspiracy. Or maybe the Mouser was actually used. I suspect the latter is true.

I don't believe that the Carcano in the WC photos matches the one in the backyard photos. Because the former has a side-mount sling in the front and the latter a bottom-mount sling. (I can see it in the photo. And I'm not one to see things in photos, like Badge Man. etc.)

I've seen no compelling evidence that Oswald took the Carcano to the TSBD, but that doesn't mean he didn't.

As for how Oswald was supposed to have been tagged as a conspirator in my hypothesis... well, for one, I believe the plotters were sending signals to the DPD on how to locate Oswald. Maybe they didn't care whether the authorities charged him with being a shooter or an accomplice. They just wanted Oswald to be found in order to keep the authorities looking in the wrong direction.

Even though I wrote the hypothesis for Lance's challenge, I admit that it has gotten me to think more seriously about it being a real possibility.

[Sandy Larsen]

[...]

[...]

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

[...]

And why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught or even looked for? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy

The government decided very early on that they didn't want there to be a conspiracy. So Oswald had to have done the shooting. (This is part of my hypothesis.)

[Thomas Graves]

[...]

[...]

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

[...]

Hi Sandy,

Question: Are you saying it was "okay" for LHO to be outside, or he had to be outside (in order to be noticed / caught on film, "prove" a Castro-loving, Commied-up conspiracy, and justify the bombing of Cuba and / or Russia)?

It's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

Some "researchers" claim that the "MC" visible in films and photos taken that day either wasn't a MC, or at least wasn't Oswald's / Hidell's MC. What do you think?

Time now for some humour. Hypothetical Police Statement: "We believe that Oswald loaned his rifle to the assassin and said to him, 'I'm gonna go outside now and watch you kill JFK. Good luck!'"

In your scenario, how could LHO have been plausibly tagged as a "co-conspirator" by the investigators if not for that rifle's being allegedly "found" in the TSBD, and it's being "traceable" to his PO Box? Because someone might fib and say he saw LHO acting as a "lookout"? Because someone saw him take a bottle of Coke up to the assassin?

BTW, if LHO was determined to have been just a co-conspirator, who would the authorities have said was the shooter? Joe Molina? Jack Dougherty? Or [place name here] .... ?

Why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy

PS Did ya miss me?

Hi Tommy,

Yes, I did miss you! In fact I welcomed you back in another thread a day or two ago. Maybe you missed it.

I wrote my hypothesis in response to a challenge issued by Lance Payette in Post 326, where he said:

"I defy anyone to posit an elaborate pre-assassination and post-assassination conspiracy that includes the element of LHO standing on the front steps of the TBSD at the time of the assassination."

As I recall, he found it unthinkable that LHO, as the designated patsy, would be allowed to walk around and be witnessed, photographed, or filmed outside the sniper's nest during the shooting.

So I took up his challenge and wrote my hypothesis. What you see above is just part of my hypothesis, but it is the most pertinent part.

In the part not quoted, I surmised that the assassination plotter's most important goal was to eliminate JFK so that a president more to their liking could take charge. And that it was an afterthought and icing on the cake if the could implicate the Soviets and/or Cubans.

So, in answer to your question, it wasn't required for Oswald to be seen outside the snipers nest, but was acceptable... and in fact desirable.

As for whether or not the Carcano was actually found in the TSBD, that's a good question. I do believe that the Mouser was found there. Maybe it was planted, along with the Carcano, in order to indicate a conspiracy. Or maybe the Mouser was actually used. I suspect the latter is true.

I don't believe that the Carcano in the WC photos matches the one in the backyard photos. Because the former has a side-mount sling in the front and the latter a bottom-mount sling. (I can see it in the photo. And I'm not one to see things in photos, like Badge Man. etc.)

I've seen no compelling evidence that Oswald took the Carcano to the TSBD, but that doesn't mean he didn't.

As for how Oswald was supposed to have been tagged as a conspirator in my hypothesis... well, for one, I believe the plotters were sending signals to the DPD on how to locate Oswald. Maybe they didn't care whether the authorities charged him with being a shooter or an accomplice. They just wanted Oswald to be found in order to keep the authorities looking in the wrong direction.

Even though I wrote the hypothesis for Lance's challenge, I admit that it has gotten me to think more seriously about it being a real possibility.

Sandy,

It seems that your evolving theory accommodates the idea of LHO's being either inside or outside, but not guilty or innocent. Only innocent.

It's a good thing you didn't join Fetzer's and Cinque's "Oswald Innocence Campaign," because it seems as though they assumed that if Oswald was inside, he must be guilty. (lol)

Bob Prudhomme and you seem to think that the bad guys wanted Oswald to be outside while someone else shot JFK with "Oswald's rifle." So that it would look like a commie conspiracy and we would invade Cuba.

You seem to think that Oswald didn't know anything about the plot, didn't own the MC, and that someone else (Dougherty? Mac Wallace?) not only killed JFK, but set up LHO as a co-conspirator by planting a traceable-to-him rifle and encouraging him to go outside (by not preventing him from doing so) and watch the motorcade go by.

But didn't even the scenario of "Oswald The Commie Lone Nut Assassin" almost take Lyndon Johnson to the brink of bombing Cuba and / or Russia? Or was that just a ruse, the result of someone's (Angleton's?) planting a "Oswald-Kostikov WW III virus" in order to prevent the plot from being uncovered, after the fact, by the investigators?

Why would the bad guys think that a two-man commie "conspiracy" (including Oswald) would be necessary to implement that ruse, especially if the "6th floor commie sniper" (not Oswald because he was out front!) were to never be caught? Or did the mid level bad guys know that Angleton had planted that cover up "WW III virus," and tried to overcome it so that Cuba would be invaded?

-- Tommy

PS It's too bad Oswald's last name wasn't Schrodinger, instead.

Edited September 5, 2016 by Thomas Graves

[Sandy Larsen]

[...]

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

[...]

Hi Sandy,

Question: Are you saying it was "okay" for LHO to be outside, or he had to be outside (in order to be noticed / caught on film, "prove" a Castro-loving, Commied-up conspiracy, and justify the bombing of Cuba and / or Russia)?

It's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

Some "researchers" claim that the "MC" visible in films and photos taken that day either wasn't a MC, or at least wasn't Oswald's / Hidell's MC. What do you think?

Time now for some humour. Hypothetical Police Statement: "We believe that Oswald loaned his rifle to the assassin and said to him, 'I'm gonna go outside now and watch you kill JFK. Good luck!'"

In your scenario, how could LHO have been plausibly tagged as a "co-conspirator" by the investigators if not for that rifle's being allegedly "found" in the TSBD, and it's being "traceable" to his PO Box? Because someone might fib and say he saw LHO acting as a "lookout"? Because someone saw him take a bottle of Coke up to the assassin?

BTW, if LHO was determined to have been just a co-conspirator, who would the authorities have said was the shooter? Joe Molina? Jack Dougherty? Or [place name here] .... ?

Why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy

PS Did ya miss me?

Hi Tommy,

Yes, I did miss you! In fact I welcomed you back in another thread a day or two ago. Maybe you missed it.

I wrote my hypothesis in response to a challenge issued by Lance Payette in Post 326, where he said:

"I defy anyone to posit an elaborate pre-assassination and post-assassination conspiracy that includes the element of LHO standing on the front steps of the TBSD at the time of the assassination."

As I recall, he found it unthinkable that LHO, as the designated patsy, would be allowed to walk around and be witnessed, photographed, or filmed outside the sniper's nest during the shooting.

So I took up his challenge and wrote my hypothesis. What you see above is just part of my hypothesis, but it is the most pertinent part.

In the part not quoted, I surmised that the assassination plotter's most important goal was to eliminate JFK so that a president more to their liking could take charge. And that it was an afterthought and icing on the cake if the could implicate the Soviets and/or Cubans.

So, in answer to your question, it wasn't required for Oswald to be seen outside the snipers nest, but was acceptable... and in fact desirable.

As for whether or not the Carcano was actually found in the TSBD, that's a good question. I do believe that the Mouser was found there. Maybe it was planted, along with the Carcano, in order to indicate a conspiracy. Or maybe the Mouser was actually used. I suspect the latter is true.

I don't believe that the Carcano in the WC photos matches the one in the backyard photos. Because the former has a side-mount sling in the front and the latter a bottom-mount sling. (I can see it in the photo. And I'm not one to see things in photos, like Badge Man. etc.)

I've seen no compelling evidence that Oswald took the Carcano to the TSBD, but that doesn't mean he didn't.

As for how Oswald was supposed to have been tagged as a conspirator in my hypothesis... well, for one, I believe the plotters were sending signals to the DPD on how to locate Oswald. Maybe they didn't care whether the authorities charged him with being a shooter or an accomplice. They just wanted Oswald to be found in order to keep the authorities looking in the wrong direction.

Even though I wrote the hypothesis for Lance's challenge, I admit that it has gotten me to think more seriously about it being a real possibility.

Sandy,

It seems that your evolving theory accommodates the idea of LHO's being either inside or outside, but not guilty or innocent. Only innocent.

The reason I believe Oswald is innocent is because 1) I'm convinced that the assassination plot was produced by the CIA, and 2) there is no reason to believe that the CIA would choose Oswald to be a shooter. Given that the CIA would have compartmentalized the plot, I know that Oswald likely wouldn't have been privy to what exactly was going on. He didn't have the need to know, so he didn't.

Therefore, even if Oswald were somehow involved in the plot, he wouldn't have known that the goal was to kill the president. Therefore his innocence.

It's a good thing you didn't join Fetzer's and Cinque's "Oswald Innocence Campaign," because it seems as though they assumed that if Oswald was inside, he must be guilty. (lol)

Bob Prudhomme and you seem to think that the bad guys wanted Oswald to be outside while someone else shot JFK with "Oswald's rifle." So that it would look like a commie conspiracy and we would invade Cuba.

You seem to think that Oswald didn't know anything about the plot, didn't own the MC, and that someone else (Dougherty? Mac Wallace?) not only killed JFK, but set up LHO as a co-conspirator by planting a traceable-to-him rifle and encouraging him to go outside (by not preventing him from doing so) and watch the motorcade go by.

But didn't even the scenario of "Oswald The Commie Lone Nut Assassin" almost take Lyndon Johnson to the brink of bombing Cuba and / or Russia?

Well that's what LBJ told people, to get them to do what he wanted. But the Lone Nut story played out well and America was never at the brink of bombing anybody (other than Vietnam).

Or was that just a ruse, the result of someone's (Angleton's?) planting a "Oswald-Kostikov WW III virus" in order to prevent the plot from being uncovered, after the fact, by the investigators?

I know that some researcher believe that the Mexico City, Kostikov thing was designed to get Johnson worried about WW3, so he'd do the cover-up. (Call this Plan A.) And that may be the case. If so, that would mean that the assassination was never intended to be used as a pretext for war.

But I don't know if I buy that. We know that some among the chiefs of staff wanted to fight the Russians before they became militarily stronger than the United States. The Kostikov thing would have created the desired pretext for war. (Call this Plan B.)

The beauty part of Plan A is that the assassination plotters (CIA) and government cover-up (Johnson) would share the same post-assassination goals. The primary one being to keep the government from searching for a conspiracy (and thus the real plotters). In contrast, with Plan B the assassination plotters are at odds with the government cover-up. The former wants a conspiracy to be discovered, the latter... I'm not sure what the latter would want. But if they decided to hide the conspiracy using the Lone Nut option, that would be at odds with the goal of the assassination plot.

In summary, Plan A is smooth. But Plan B accomplishes the military's goal.

I wish I could figure out a Plan C that gets the best of both Plan A and Plan B worlds.

Okay, here's a possibility for a Plan C. Pay attention: The goal of the assassination was to replace Kennedy with Johnson, and to use Oswald and others (Cuban exiles and Mafia) to draw the FBI's attention away from the plotters in the post-assassination investigation. As simple as that. Unfortunately for them, there was a small group of renegades amongst them who were sympathetic to the military's goal of war with Russia. Unbeknownst to the main group, they implemented the Mexico City trip and Kostikov thing in order to create the pretext for war.

This subplot became known only after the assassination, when the government cover-up was getting started. It was Spy vs. Spy. The sub-plotters knew that Oswald would be blamed and when word got out that he had strong Russian ties there would be public outcries for revenge. Johnson knew this would mean WW3. So he implemented the Lone Nut cover-up in order to prevent that from happening.

Hey, this is actually not a bad hypothesis. It does the same as Plan A above in that it gets Johnson in cover-up mode (albeit incidentally). And it does the same as Plan B in that it creates the pretext for war. In fact, it's Plan A vs. Plan B. Spy vs. Spy.

Why would the bad guys think that a two-man commie "conspiracy" (including Oswald) would be necessary to implement that ruse, especially if the "6th floor commie sniper" (not Oswald because he was out front!) were to never be caught?

I would say that the "two-man" part of the conspiracy wasn't strategic at all. It was just a way of executing the plan without having to worry where Oswald was at the time of the shooting. A mere practical matter.

Or did the mid level bad guys know that Angleton had planted that cover up "WW III virus," and tried to overcome it so that Cuba would be invaded?

That's certainly a possibility. (It's sort of like my Plan C!) We know that there were people trying to push the commie conspiracy angle in spite of the Lone Nut cover-up.

-- Tommy

PS It's too bad Oswald's last name wasn't Schrodinger, instead.

[Thomas Graves]

[...]

[...]

The primary feature of my hypothesis -- which you seemed to have missed -- is that the assassination plotters were not painting Oswald as the shooter. But rather as an accomplice. For example, that he supplied the gun. Therefore it would be okay for him to be seen by witnesses during the shooting and caught outside in some photographs and films. The purpose of this being.... well, read the hypothesis again. It makes a lot of sense.

It was the other conspiracy -- the government cover-up -- that made Oswald the shooter. Indeed the only shooter. So that there would be no conspiracy.

In summary, the assassination plotters preferred that a conspiracy to be detected, whereas the government cover-up artists didn't. (Though I do believe the assassination plotters attempted to steer the direction of the government's response.)

[...]

Hi Sandy,

Question: Are you saying it was "okay" for LHO to be outside, or he had to be outside (in order to be noticed / caught on film, "prove" a Castro-loving, Commied-up conspiracy, and justify the bombing of Cuba and / or Russia)?

[it's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

Some "researchers" claim that the "MC" visible in films and photos taken that day either wasn't a MC, or at least wasn't Oswald's / Hidell's MC. What do you think?

Time now for some humour. Hypothetical Police Statement: "We believe that Oswald loaned his rifle to the assassin and said to him, 'I'm gonna go outside now and watch you kill JFK. Good luck!'"

In your scenario, how could LHO have been plausibly tagged as a "co-conspirator" by the investigators if not for that rifle's being allegedly "found" in the TSBD, and it's being "traceable" to his PO Box? Because someone might fib and say he saw LHO acting as a "lookout"? Because someone saw him take a bottle of Coke up to the assassin?]

BTW, if LHO was determined to have been just a co-conspirator, who would the authorities have said was the shooter? Joe Molina? Jack Dougherty? Or [place name here] .... ?

And why wasn't "Oswald's co-conspirator" caught or even looked for? Because it was unnecessary as long they had the sniper's accomplice?

-- Tommy

EDIT: BTW, I'm just throwing out some ideas here, I don't claim to know the answers. Yet.

Sandy,

Under your "2-man commie conspiracy" scenario, things would have worked out a lot differently if Wesley B. Frazier had said within an hour of the assassination, "It couldn't have been Oswald because I saw him taking pictures / sipping from a full mug of very hot coffee with both hands on the front steps during the shooting! Why did he leave? Well, he did tell me on the way to work this morning that he's been wanting to see those movies they're showing at the Texas Theater, so maybe he went there. You know, with his mail order pistol that he bought under the name 'Hidell' because a boy likes to carry a gun?'"

"Oddly-shaped package"? -- [The Daily Mail] "'Not for one minute do I think Lee was on his own.'" ? -- [WBF] Sounds like a limited hangout.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3326233/I-drove-Lee-Harvey-Oswald-book-depository-don-t-believe-shot-JFK-52-years-assassination-Oswald-s-friend-says-convinced-patsy-real-gunman-grassy-knoll.html

-- Tommy

Edited September 5, 2016 by Thomas Graves

[Chris Newton]

[it's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

There was no need to be "elaborate" because the TSBD was not a secure location. Any "operator" worth his salt could have gotten in there the night before and built the nest / planted the rifle.

[Thomas Graves]

[it's interesting to speculate that LHO secretly took his gun to work that morning for one of Hemming's guys to buy, or that it was somehow smuggled into the TSBD (or perhaps just into the paper "evidentiary record") beforehand, or only after-the-fact, as part of the elaborate cover up / frame job.

There was no need to be "elaborate" because the TSBD was not a secure location. Any "operator" worth his salt could have gotten in there the night before and built the nest / planted the rifle.

Or gotten there early that morning and done same.

Jack Dougherty had a key to the building and had a habit of getting there early, didn't he? To check / turn on something in the basement?

-- Tommy