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Then went outside to watch the P. parade


Guest Bart Kamp

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Well, I suppose the commotion Holmes was referring to could have been due to the parade starting rather than when the shooting occurred. But either way it indicates that Oswald was outside or near the front door during the shooting.

Another possibility... it could be that Oswald heard the parade commotion and went outside to see what was going on, only to discover that he was too late to see Kennedy. And that is why he told Kelley that he didn't watch the parade, even though he went outside to see it. But again it doesn't matter. Any one of these possibilities indicates that Oswald was outside or near the front door during the shooting.

 

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3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

Oswald didn't go outside to watch the parade, he went out to see what the commotion was all about. (The parade had already passed!)

Then Oswald can't possibly be "Prayer Man".

Edited by David Von Pein
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3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

What Inspector Kelley wrote is true, and it doesn't negate what Hosty wrote in his notes. Because Oswald didn't go outside to watch the parade, he went out to see what the commotion was all about. (The parade had already passed!)

Then you're admitting that Hosty's "P. Parade" note is inaccurate.

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It is all about the detailed timing of Lee Oswald's movements which, unfortunately, is not known. Given the uncertainty of the exact moments of Lee Oswald's arrival into doorway and of duration of his stay there, multiple statements can be correct as none contains an exact time stamp.

My analysis of Hughes, e.g., the frame often shown by David Josephs, tells me that Prayer Man was not at his spot when the Presidential limousine was just passing the depository building and before the shots rang out. So, yes, Lee did not watch the parade with other people, he was not in the doorway minutes before, he did not have chat with other employees.  This is consistent with Inspector Kelley's report. Lee came, if he was Prayer Man, into doorway during the moments after President's limo passed and was certainly at his spot just after the last shot - this is documented in Wiegman. So, yes, he also saw the tail of the motorcade, the pandemonium, the commotion and the excitement. This fits with what he told during his very first interrogation and what Agent Hosty has recorded. 

As to the timing, I have calculated that Lee would need 12 seconds to walk briskly (not run) at 6 km/hour speed from the 1st floor lunchroom to the doorway (21 meters in my reading of the 1st floor plan) and thinking of Wiegman's first doorway frame W014 or W015 showing the doorway to coincide with Z313 + 1 second, we can estimate the likely time of his departure from the first floor lunchroom. I can be wrong, however, Lee may have reacted to the noise of the crowd which had augmented when the motorcade got to Houston Street. That would be the go signal making him leave the 1st floor lunchroom. He would be still in the building when the first shot rang out (thus, he was IN the building) on his way out, approaching the glass door, and he would reach his spot just a second before the last shot. It takes up to 3 seconds to squeeze through the semi-open glass door and get to Prayer Man's spot.

Prayer Man was watching the cars passing the Depository in Wiegman but he was completely uninterested in events evolving around him in Darnell. His behaviour is very odd - all doorway occupants optimise their vantage points and view angles to see the most of the area around the Tripple Underpass. None of the doorway occupants behaved like Prayer Man.

The spot at the western wall was the only spot which Lee could take if he entered the doorway late. Please mind that as he exited  through the semi-open glass door, he could not go left because that route was blocked by Mrs. Sanders. He could not stay at the centre of the doorway, as there was the huge Mrs. Stanton and the tiny Mr. Shelley who occupied these premium posts. He could not stay just there slightly west of Mrs. Stanton and Mr. Shelley, because of Buell Wesley Frazier. He was standing close to the western pane of the glass door in the shadow, almost touching the door (his Wiegman location). Billy Lovelady at that point was at his Altgens6/early Wiegman location, on the second step, so Lee needed to move still further to the west and front of the top landing - to his Prayer Man location. At that spot, Lee would not obstruct the views of any of the people standing on the top landing.

Late edit: Lee reacted to the noise of the crowd when he decided to go out, to see the commotion, the excitement, not to the shooting. I am inclined to believe that he did not anticipate any shooting to occur. However, the shooting which did occur had a very different meaning to him compared to other people in the doorway. Instead of going to the island or railroad tracks, or at least gazing to that general area, he watched in an indefinite way towards East Elm or Houston - he was thinking and pondering his next steps. The scenario may have been the one described in Chris Fulton's Inheritance: he was an intelligence asset and he was possibly informed about a mock assassination attempt which, however, he was told had been called off on the last minute (bad whether reason?). Therefore, he was not expecting anything to happen and quietly ate his lunch and went out to see the crowds when it looked like the motorcade is approaching. However, once he was out, he knew that the called-out action actually took place and was even hijacked to be a real assassination. He knew the people who had been preparing the mock attempt and who called it off, and this could be on his mind as he stood there staring to nowhere. 

 

 

 

Edited by Andrej Stancak
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Andrej,

Motorcycle Policeman Marion Baker makes his run to the TSBD doorway in the Couch-Darnell film at about 30 seconds plus after the assassination of President Kennedy.  The beginning first 1 to 2 seconds of the Couch-Darnell film is equivalent to frames at 37-38 seconds of the Weigman film.

You can disassociate the Couch-Darnell film from where Prayer Man (Oswald) was during the assassination of President Kennedy.  But, you cannot with the Weigman film.  The Weigman film shows PM in the doorway of the TSBD directly after the assassination.  Altgens 6 does not show PM.  The conclusion is that PM is not in the doorway at the time of the shooting.  He is somewhere else.  There are various accounts saying he was elsewhere and others saying he was outside watching the parade.

Andrej Stancak says:

My analysis of Hughes, e.g., the frame often shown by David Josephs, tells me that Prayer Man was not at his spot when the Presidential limousine was just passing the depository building and before the shots rang out. So, yes, Lee did not watch the parade with other people, he was not in the doorway minutes before, he did not have chat with other employees.  This is consistent with Inspector Kelley's report. Lee came, if he was Prayer Man, into doorway during the moments after President's limo passed and was certainly at his spot just after the last shot - this is documented in Wiegman. So, yes, he also saw the tail of the motorcade, the pandemonium, the commotion and the excitement. This fits with what he told during his very first interrogation and what Agent Hosty has recorded.” 

Your statement is consistent with the Weigman film.  “just after” is the problem of timing when Weigman began filming.  Weigman didn’t begin his filming until he reached the intersection of Elm and Houston Streets.  During the shooting he was on Houston Street in Camera Car #1.  He said he heard two shots while still in the vehicle and was on the street for the third shot.  Camera Car #1 was located on Houston Street midway in front of the Court Records Building.  The block of Houston Street in question is about 200 feet.  The Court Records Building is about half or 100 feet of that block. 

Weigman had to run 50 to 75 feet to be into position to start filming the front of the TSBD.  I estimate that to be 3-5 seconds.  You estimate Oswald walking briskly across the first floor of the TSBD to the door way to be 12 seconds to cover roughly 65 feet.  My 3-5 seconds could be longer depending on Weigman’s running speed.  You say:

As to the timing, I have calculated that Lee would need 12 seconds to walk briskly (not run) at 6 km/hour speed from the 1st floor lunchroom to the doorway (21 meters in my reading of the 1st floor plan) and thinking of Wiegman's first doorway frame W014 or W015 showing the doorway to coincide with Z313 + 1 second, we can estimate the likely time of his departure from the first floor lunchroom.”   

Depending on how long the Mayor's Car and National Press Pool Car was held up on Elm before moving down Elm Street effects when Weigman begins shooting the film.  Mrs. Earle Cabell says they were definitely stopped.  There could be as much as 11-13 to 19 seconds before Weigman begins filming.  8 seconds for the shooting.  Possibly 3 to 5 seconds (could be longer) for Weigman to get to Elm Street.  Possibly 8 seconds of the Mayor's car sitting still.  That could be 19 seconds.

The 19 second estimate depends on how long the Mayor’s Car sat in the Elm intersection before Weigman began filming.  The first 8 seconds of the Weigman film is black screen.  Is this just for a filming affect or simply to cover 8 seconds of the Mayor’s Car sitting still.

The 11-13 seconds (could be longer) time for Weigman to get to Elm Street is enough for your 12 second estimate.  Actually, Oswald was a life long walker, didn’t drive, walked everywhere.  He could have made that quicker than 12 seconds. 

Yes, Oswald or Prayer Man had time to get to the doorway from wherever he was.  Marion Baker supposedly made his run in 4 seconds.  HIs run is at least half the distance of the TSBD, about 50 feet or more. I don't agree with PM being in the building.  I think he was on Elm Street as shown in John Martin.  That's an old argument and not necessary here.  If he was in the building as you say he had time to reach the doorway and be outside.  No Problem.

Edited by John Butler
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54 minutes ago, John Butler said:

Andrej,

Motorcycle Policeman Marion Baker makes his run to the TSBD doorway in the Couch-Darnell film at about 30 seconds plus after the assassination of President Kennedy.  The beginning first 1 to 2 seconds of the Couch-Darnell film is equivalent to frames at 37-38 seconds of the Weigman film.

You can disassociate the Couch-Darnell film from where Prayer Man (Oswald) was during the assassination of President Kennedy.  But, you cannot with the Weigman film.  The Weigman film shows PM in the doorway of the TSBD directly after the assassination.  Altgens 6 does not show PM.  The conclusion is that PM is not in the doorway at the time of the shooting.  He is somewhere else.  There are various accounts saying he was elsewhere and others saying he was outside watching the parade.

Andrej Stancak says:

My analysis of Hughes, e.g., the frame often shown by David Josephs, tells me that Prayer Man was not at his spot when the Presidential limousine was just passing the depository building and before the shots rang out. So, yes, Lee did not watch the parade with other people, he was not in the doorway minutes before, he did not have chat with other employees.  This is consistent with Inspector Kelley's report. Lee came, if he was Prayer Man, into doorway during the moments after President's limo passed and was certainly at his spot just after the last shot - this is documented in Wiegman. So, yes, he also saw the tail of the motorcade, the pandemonium, the commotion and the excitement. This fits with what he told during his very first interrogation and what Agent Hosty has recorded.” 

Your statement is consistent with the Weigman film.  “just after” is the problem of timing when Weigman began filming.  Weigman didn’t begin his filming until he reached the intersection of Elm and Houston Streets.  During the shooting he was on Houston Street in Camera Car #1.  He said he heard two shots while still in the vehicle and was on the street for the third shot.  Camera Car #1 was located on Houston Street midway in front of the Court Records Building.  The block of Houston Street in question is about 200 feet.  The Court Records Building is about half or 100 feet of that block. 

Weigman had to run 50 to 75 feet to be into position to start filming the front of the TSBD.  I estimate that to be 3-5 seconds.  You estimate Oswald walking briskly across the first floor of the TSBD to the door way to be 12 seconds to cover roughly 65 feet.  My 3-5 seconds could be longer depending on Weigman’s running speed.  You say:

As to the timing, I have calculated that Lee would need 12 seconds to walk briskly (not run) at 6 km/hour speed from the 1st floor lunchroom to the doorway (21 meters in my reading of the 1st floor plan) and thinking of Wiegman's first doorway frame W014 or W015 showing the doorway to coincide with Z313 + 1 second, we can estimate the likely time of his departure from the first floor lunchroom.”   

Depending on how long the Mayor's Car and National Press Pool Car was held up on Elm before moving down Elm Street effects when Weigman begins shooting the film.  Mrs. Earle Cabell says they were definitely stopped.  There could be as much as 11-13 to 19 seconds before Weigman begins filming.  8 seconds for the shooting.  Possibly 3 to 5 seconds (could be longer) for Weigman to get to Elm Street.  Possibly 8 seconds of the Mayor's car sitting still.  That could be 19 seconds.

The 19 second estimate depends on how long the Mayor’s Car sat in the Elm intersection before Weigman began filming.  The first 8 seconds of the Weigman film is black screen.  Is this just for a filming affect or simply to cover 8 seconds of the Mayor’s Car sitting still.

The 11-13 seconds (could be longer) time for Weigman to get to Elm Street is enough for your 12 second estimate.  Actually, Oswald was a life long walker, didn’t drive, walked everywhere.  He could have made that quicker than 12 seconds. 

Yes, Oswald or Prayer Man had time to get to the doorway from wherever he was.  Marion Baker supposedly made his run in 4 seconds.  HIs run is at least half the distance of the TSBD, about 50 feet or more. I don't agree with PM being in the building.  I think he was on Elm Street as shown in John Martin.  That's an old argument and not necessary here.  If he was in the building as you say he had time to reach the doorway and be outside.  No Problem.

Thanks, John, this is very useful and elaborate.

I can only add from my angle, from reconstructing the doorway scenes, that Z255 scene depicted in Altgens6  is quite different to what we see in Wiegman, confirming your conclusion that the time estimate provided by Daley Myers (Z257 = W015) is way off. At least few differences: 1. Carl Jones gazes toward Houston Street in Altgens6, and in a general front direction in Wiegman. 2. Mrs. Stanton moved from behind Lovelady (Altgens6) to the space in the shadow, behind Mr. Shelley in Wiegman. 3. Lovelady moved closer toward the central railing in Wiegman. 4. Mr. Molina moved  more  to the east in Wiegman compatred to Altgens6. (There seem to be more changes in Williams and Molina in Wiegman compared to Altgens6, however, I cannot recall the exact details at the moment.)

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No Problem Andrej,

Dale Myers (Z257=W015) is one of the things I wanted to correct.  Altgens 6 does not correspond to Z frame 255.  At Z frame 215 or so the presidential limousine comes out from behind the Stemmons sign.  From that point onward the Stemmons sign is behind the presidential limousine to the right rear on the north side of Elm.  You can't see the Stemmons sign in Altgens 6.  It is not in the photo and should be there.  The Stemmons sign should be 40 feet behind the presidential limousine in Altgens 6 and be visible.  No amount of camera gobbleygook can convince me otherwise.  How does one arrive at 40 feet?  That's based on he general estimate that 1 frame equals 1 foot in movement of the vehicle.

Edited by John Butler
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2 hours ago, John Butler said:

 The Stemmons sign should be 40 feet behind the presidential limousine in Altgens 6 and be visible.  No amount of camera gobbleygook can convince me otherwise.  How does one arrive at 40 feet?  That's based on he general estimate that 1 frame equals 1 foot in movement of the vehicle.

Actually, JFK (within the limo) hasn't reached the Stemmons sign by extant z255.

40224328833_040b9033a5_o.jpg

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Chris,

I don't get your point.  How do you connect the day after photo to anything?  Z frame 248 has the presidential limousine pass the Stemmons sign. 

I use John Costella's Zapruder frames.  By Z frame 215 we see the presidential limousine emerging from behind the Stemmons sign.  By Z frame 230 it has fully emerged.

z230.jpg

So, I don't know what Z frame 248 has to do with anything.

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Extant Z is at an angle in relationship to the limo.

You're giving us a horizontal distance/location based on that angle.

Try following the blue line from the Z pedestal to a point that is more parallel with the Stemmons sign.

Extant Z frame numbers 249/255 are in the blue box.

Using the blue parallel line that crosses Elm St, is the Stemmons sign still 40ft behind the limo at extant z255?

47138575632_13224d9dcf_o.jpg

 

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Chris,

Like it or not at Z frame 215 the presidential limousine peeks out from behind the Stemmons sign.  From that point, based on 1 foot per frame, you have 40 feet to Z frame 255.  If you are more of a purist the full limousine is visible at Z frame 230.  That makes it 25 feet to Z frame 255.  25 or 40 feet in Altgens 6 you should see the Stemmons sign to the right rear of the limousine on the north side of Elm.  Once again Z frame 230.

z230.jpg

If you look the sign has been tampered with in this film.  It should be at right angles to the street but it is not.   It is at an different angle.  But that doesn't matter.  From here in this scene it is 25 feet to Z frame 255.  The Stemmons sign should be visible to the rear of the presidential limousine.  And, it is not.

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On 2/23/2019 at 4:37 AM, David Von Pein said:
On 2/23/2019 at 1:24 AM, Sandy Larsen said:

Oswald didn't go outside to watch the parade, he went out to see what the commotion was all about. (The parade had already passed!)

Then Oswald can't possibly be "Prayer Man".


When I said "The parade had already passed!" I meant that the president's limo had already passed.

But at the time I was thinking that the "commotion" Oswald had heard was the reaction of the crowd to the shooting. Later I realized that the commotion could have been the cheering of the crowd when the parade was nearing.

I believe that Prayer Man is Oswald.

 

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On 2/23/2019 at 4:41 AM, David Von Pein said:
On 2/23/2019 at 1:24 AM, Sandy Larsen said:

What Inspector Kelley wrote is true, and it doesn't negate what Hosty wrote in his notes. Because Oswald didn't go outside to watch the parade, he went out to see what the commotion was all about. (The parade had already passed!)

Then you're admitting that Hosty's "P. Parade" note is inaccurate.

 

Oswald went outside to check out the commotion. Hosty characterized it as Oswald going out to watch the presidential parade.

 

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11 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

Oswald went outside to check out the commotion. Hosty characterized it as Oswald going out to watch the presidential parade.

I somewhat agree with your interpretation here. I don't think the words "Presidential Parade" came out of the mouth of Lee Harvey Oswald. Based on all of the official FINAL reports (from Fritz, Bookhout, Hosty, and Kelley), I think the words "P. Parade" that appear in the "new" Hosty note were probably HOSTY'S words and HOSTY'S interpretation of Oswald's "out with Bill Shelley" statement. Otherwise, we'd have a lot more reports (and notes) that had the word "Parade" in them.

 

Edited by David Von Pein
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