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20 hours ago, John Butler said:

This short display of facts says that the longest part of the film is missing.  This part is known as the Zapruder Gap.  What this would look like visually is this:

Anything is possible John so I don't rule out suppression of photos or frames.  However, the focus for me over the next 6 months as I finish the animation is to concentrate on what evidence is available on the public record.  I want the animation to be consistent with the known facts, and so if any odd discrepancies appear then this will support the suppression theories.  Time will tell!

20 hours ago, John Butler said:

Mark takes the testimony of a dozen witnesses to say there was a fourth shot.  Would he believe this?  I have listed on the forum twice a list of over 50 witnesses that said shooting occurred in front of the TSBD.  This means that shooting occurred in the Zapruder Gap. 

When you say "shooting occurred in front of the TSBD" I agree with you.  At Z185 when I think the shooting started, part of the Presidential limo was directly in front of the south west corner of the TSBD.  Of course many other people think the limo was at Z150 or even before Z133 when the shooting started (e.g. Max Holland).  I respect the people who think this, but I interpret the evidence differently so I politely disagree and show my workings as to why.

Most of the witnesses nearby said the limo was at the lamppost or the signpost when the first shot was fired.  Also, with the animation we can see Z185-Z200 fits hand and glove with where the witnesses in the camera cars on Houston Street said they were when the first shot was fired.  In other words I'm not merely counting witnesses who explicitly agree with me about the Presidential limo, I'm linking together many different statements from different areas of Dealey Plaza and corroborating a timeline for the shots based on multiple car positions.

The Houston Street witnesses also help me prove that the shooting lasted about 12 seconds from start to finish, which in turn corroborates the witness reports from people like Mary Moorman and Jean Hill who insisted they heard shots well after the head shot when the limo was racing towards the underpass bridge.

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5 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

CE884.png

The next version of Motorcade 63 could be very revealing if I can't fix this glitch!  At the moment I think the car needs to be 4-5 feet further forward around this time.

I've made some other interesting discoveries in the last week.  For example I think I know who this person is in the Bothun 5 photo:

Shadow_Man.jpg

Bothun.jpg

They are also in the Darnell & Couch films wearing dark clothes as they run towards the railway tracks looking for the assassin:

camera_car_2.jpg

20160719-212409.JPG

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/20/2020 at 4:25 PM, Chris Davidson said:

CE884.png

Chris, I updated the animation and it should be more accurate for the car positions at Z175 when I publish it in a few weeks time.  A notable change seems to be that the Bronson 3 photo had to be changed from Z235 to Z228.  I also had to change the Hughes film sync at the point of McLain turning the corner which is now Z150.  Otherwise it's just a slight change in the 4 car speeds to worry about.

The average Presidential limo speed between the measured key points are as follows:

  • Towner end to Z180 = 11.1 MPH
  • Z180 to Z224 = 10.9 MPH
  • Z224 to Z280 = 11.8 MPH

It's not quite the smooth acceleration out of the corner as before, but it's still fairly consistent over the 5-10 seconds in question (i.e. within 1 MPH).  Thanks again for spotting the issues and helping improve the accuracy of the animation relative to the photos and films.
 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Here is the latest release of Motorcade 63 (version 2.0):

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

I added these photos:

Powell
Dillard 2
Dillard 3

The animation now has a few more interesting witnesses and their movements:

Billy Lovelady
Gloria Calvery
Joe Marshall Smith
Edgar Smith
Welcome Barnett
Carolyn Walther
James Powell
The Franzen family
Amos Euins
Howard Brennan

I slightly changed the route of the knoll runner and the black dog man, as Marilyn Sitzman said they were a couple who ran behind the pergola and were responsible for a bottle smashing onto the ground.  This is probably what Lee Bowers described as a "commotion", as the narrative and timeline matches perfectly.

While studying the testimony of the Secret Service agents I noticed that Sam Kinney started his siren in the seconds following the head shot when his car was in the heart of Dealey Plaza.  This was corroborated by other witnesses so I consider this to be a major challenge to the dictabelt evidence:

How could the microphone pick up gunshots but not a siren?  We know that the microphone picked up sirens 2 minutes later on Stemmons freeway, so why not in Dealey Plaza as well?

More detail of this work is in the handbook section 9.1.1:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

The audio from the dictabelt recordings has been added to the video along with some other sounds that the witnesses reported.  Back in 1963 every witness would have heard each of these noises in a slightly different way.  For example the siren would have been loud and dominant to those closest to Secret Service car.  This might explain why the Secret Service agents and James Altgens didn't hear the final shot whereas those by the TSBD heard "three well spaced reverberating shots".  The final gunshot would have been louder to them as it was closer, and the siren was further away so it was quieter.

I have updated the handbook regarding the timings of the shots (section 6).  I have concluded that while most witnesses say they heard three shots, they are not talking about the same three shots: some say they were equidistant; and some say they were bunched on top of each other.  In other words the "consensus" among witnesses regarding three shots is a numerical illusion which disappears upon close inspection.

Many thanks to the people who made suggestions for improvements, and also the researchers whose many decades of work I have used in the book and the video.
 

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  • 4 months later...

I have just published version 2.1 of Motorcade 63 here:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

As always thanks to those who have taken the time to share their thoughts and help me make the work better with each iteration.

The video only has a few minor changes, such as the dictabelt audio.  Having studied both channels I have concluded that the so called crosstalk is the most reliable sync point about a minute or so after the shots were fired.  The detail of this synchronization is in the handbook appendix D.3 where I have itemised the second by second events on both channels relative to the animation clock:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

Although the channels are clearly discontinuous at various early points, I think that in the animation around 12:30:00 both channels are recording continuously in real time from when Jesse Curry mentions approaching the triple underpass.  This is seemingly correct judging from the various timed announcements within those few minutes.

The big effort I put into this release was an exhaustive survey of 283 witnesses who gave information in statements or interviews regarding the shots that were fired.  The full survey data is publicly available here:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_dpws.csv

A full visualisation of this data is available in the handbook in appendix F (page 120).  I have also taken this opportunity to reorganise the handbook so all of the analysis of theories is done relative to the survey results.

In some areas the witnesses are collectively fairly certain about what happened in Dealey Plaza, but in other areas they are sharply divided.  For example 73% of witnesses heard three shots fired in total, and 75% of reliable witnesses are certain that just a single shot was fired around or before Z225-Z240 when the first unambiguous effects of gunfire are seen in the Zapruder film.  By contrast the witnesses are very split on these issues:

  1. 58% of reliable witnesses are certain that no more than one shot was fired around the time of Z313, whereas 32% are certain that a second shot was also fired around this time.
  2. 54% of reliable witnesses are certain that no shots were fired after Z313, whereas 38% are certain that at least one shot was fired after Z313.
  3. 59% of reliable witnesses thought that at least two shots were bunched together somewhere during the shooting, whereas 41% thought the shots were evenly spaced with no bunches.

In summary, the most reliable witnesses are evenly split regarding when the third shot was fired: either it was within a second or two of Z313; or it was fired 3-6 seconds after Z313.  If both sets of witnesses are correct then there were at least four shots fired that day.

Hopefully researchers will find this quantitative and qualitative work useful in evaluating the many theories in this case.

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Who is the shadowy figure in the Bothun photo walking steathily toward the Book Depository direction behind the white stucco wall and under the small trees on the right of the Pergola?

You say you think you know who this is.

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18 hours ago, Joe Bauer said:

Who is the shadowy figure in the Bothun photo walking steathily toward the Book Depository direction behind the white stucco wall and under the small trees on the right of the Pergola?

You say you think you know who this is.

Joe,

In my personal opinion, this is the person popularly known as Black Dog man.

You can follow his progress as leaves the knoll and walks over in the direction of the TSBD. As to his identity, I have no idea. I suspect a photographic technique has been applied to the various pictures to make him and his clothes completely black in all the photos where everyone else's skin tones show up perfectly.

bdm.thumb.jpg.891b333e1741dd2ff75a8792291b1cb6.jpgbdm2.jpg.c724cdc9c649c62d6143c0acedb98aee.jpgbdm3.thumb.jpg.14551106b6fb99711c62ad5df9c5db55.jpgbdm5.jpg.43070c19cf87dfe91456441d4211e351.jpgbdm6.jpg.e51798686d5f011b76bf548c414ebd5f.jpg

Steve Thomas

Edited by Steve Thomas
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On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2020 at 3:55 PM, Mark Tyler said:

Anything is possible John so I don't rule out suppression of photos or frames.  However, the focus for me over the next 6 months as I finish the animation is to concentrate on what evidence is available on the public record.  I want the animation to be consistent with the known facts, and so if any odd discrepancies appear then this will support the suppression theories.  Time will tell!

When you say "shooting occurred in front of the TSBD" I agree with you.  At Z185 when I think the shooting started, part of the Presidential limo was directly in front of the south west corner of the TSBD.  Of course many other people think the limo was at Z150 or even before Z133 when the shooting started (e.g. Max Holland).  I respect the people who think this, but I interpret the evidence differently so I politely disagree and show my workings as to why.

Most of the witnesses nearby said the limo was at the lamppost or the signpost when the first shot was fired.  Also, with the animation we can see Z185-Z200 fits hand and glove with where the witnesses in the camera cars on Houston Street said they were when the first shot was fired.  In other words I'm not merely counting witnesses who explicitly agree with me about the Presidential limo, I'm linking together many different statements from different areas of Dealey Plaza and corroborating a timeline for the shots based on multiple car positions.

The Houston Street witnesses also help me prove that the shooting lasted about 12 seconds from start to finish, which in turn corroborates the witness reports from people like Mary Moorman and Jean Hill who insisted they heard shots well after the head shot when the limo was racing towards the underpass bridge.

Just a bit of nit  picking here.  I may have mentioned this before.  The car you have marked as No. 1 is the Pilot Car.  This was actually the No. 2 car in the motorcade for most of the trip.  The Advance Car was No. 1.  This vehicle left the parade at about Main and Market St. If my memory is correct.

amipa-adance-car-and-pilot-car-1.jpg 

Here you can see the Advance Car and the Pilot Car on Main Street just before Market Street which is about 2 blocks to the Houston Street turn.  To be nit picking correct the Pilot Car should be marked as No. 2.

Edited by John Butler
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The Advanced Motorcycles were:

S. Q. Bellah

Glen C. McBride

J. B. Garrick

The Lead Motorcycles were;

Leon E. Grey

E. D. Brewer

Harold B. Freeman

W. G. Lumpkin

Stavis Ellis

The members of these two motorbike formations did not separate from their formation as far as I can determine.  They stayed pretty much in formation until making a curve at an intersection. 

What you have is part of the Lead Motorcycles (2 members) following almost directly behind the Advanced Motorcycles.

Muchmore shows the 3 Lead bikes and very quickly behind them 2 more Lead motorcycles.  Then there is a few distorted frames and less then a half second the presidential limo. Instead of what we see in Muchmore you show:

tyler-motoraced-motorbike-presentation.j

Muchmore shows this frame of the 5 Lead Motorcycles (actually 4 in the frame) just before the presidential limo.

muchmore-5-lead-motorbikes.jpg

Then less than a half second later:

limo-after-5-motorbikes-muchmore.jpg  

Can you explain this?  It's a puzzler for sure.

Hughes does not show either the Advanced or Lead Motorcycles.  It does show the Pilot Car directly in front of the p. limo.

hughes-pilot-car-p-limo-on-Main.jpg

The Altgens photo at the intersection of Main and Houston shows images to vague to interpret.  Bothun 1 shows may show the Lead Motorcycles, but is hard to say.  Bond shows motorcycles but difficult to tell which set. 

Bell shows motorcycles (Lead) just in front of the Pilot Car as they turn onto Houston is made.

Bell-shows-motorbikes-just-before-pilot-

So, I am saying the films and photos don't show your sequences.

Edited by John Butler
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47 minutes ago, John Butler said:

The Altgens photo at the intersection of Main and Houston shows images to vague to interpret.  Bothun 1 shows may show the Lead Motorcycles, but is hard to say.  Bond shows motorcycles but difficult to tell which set.

Altgens 1:

altgens-1-enlargement.jpg

Bothun 1:

bothun-1.jpg

Bond 1:

bond-1.jpg

The point I am making here is that it is very difficult to tell which group of motorcycle policemen this is.  It is the same in all the other films and photos. 

So, how do you determine who's who at what moment in time.

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The John Martin film shows the sequence of 3 bikes making the turn, directly after 2 more bikes making the turn, and then the Pilot Car:

martin-bikes-and-pilot-car.jpg

This indicates what is shown is the Lead Motorcycles.

Edited by John Butler
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Patsy Paschall is a difficult film to make things out in any detail.  However, in this frame we can see the correct order of the motorcade.  3 Advanced motorbikes in the formation they used for parades.  Next you can see the 5 advanced motorbikes in the formation they used for parades.  They practiced these formations and had plenty of experience in using them.  This changes for the five when they turn in an intersection.  They had a well practiced routine of 3 bikes going first followed by two more.  Then came the Lead Car.  In this frame notice that the 5 motorbikes are very close to the Lead Car.

patsy-3-motorbikes-pluse-5-pilot-car.jpg

As I said, it is a bit difficult to see.  Patsy Paschall is filming from the Old Court House and the parade is just about there.  There is the 3 Advanced motorcycles in information and behind and near the Lead Car is the 5 Lead Motorcycles.

 

 

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Mark has done an amazing job of assembling witness information.  He has 284 witnesses that I would suppose were along Main, Houston, and Elm Streets during the assassination.

I tried counting the number of people on Elm Street (from TSBD to Triple Underpass) and just in front of the Court Records building.  My count came out two ways.  First with 167 people counted where there was no conflict between films and photos of that area.  And, 279 people in those areas along Elm Street and in front of the Court Records building.  I would estimate about 400 people if you count from the Court Records Building to the intersection of Main and Houston.  (that's just a guess)

284 and 279 are about the same.  However, there were people I missed such as those in the motorcade vehicles, those between the Court Records Building and the intersection of Main and Houston, and Main Street.  If my memory is correct Roger Craig said he heard a shot while standing on Main Street.  There were a small number of others.

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On 2/17/2020 at 10:46 AM, Mark Tyler said:

Here is the latest release of Motorcade 63 (version 2.0):

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

I added these photos:

Powell
Dillard 2
Dillard 3

The animation now has a few more interesting witnesses and their movements:

Billy Lovelady
Gloria Calvery
Joe Marshall Smith
Edgar Smith
Welcome Barnett
Carolyn Walther
James Powell
The Franzen family
Amos Euins
Howard Brennan

I slightly changed the route of the knoll runner and the black dog man, as Marilyn Sitzman said they were a couple who ran behind the pergola and were responsible for a bottle smashing onto the ground.  This is probably what Lee Bowers described as a "commotion", as the narrative and timeline matches perfectly.

While studying the testimony of the Secret Service agents I noticed that Sam Kinney started his siren in the seconds following the head shot when his car was in the heart of Dealey Plaza.  This was corroborated by other witnesses so I consider this to be a major challenge to the dictabelt evidence:

How could the microphone pick up gunshots but not a siren?  We know that the microphone picked up sirens 2 minutes later on Stemmons freeway, so why not in Dealey Plaza as well?

More detail of this work is in the handbook section 9.1.1:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

The audio from the dictabelt recordings has been added to the video along with some other sounds that the witnesses reported.  Back in 1963 every witness would have heard each of these noises in a slightly different way.  For example the siren would have been loud and dominant to those closest to Secret Service car.  This might explain why the Secret Service agents and James Altgens didn't hear the final shot whereas those by the TSBD heard "three well spaced reverberating shots".  The final gunshot would have been louder to them as it was closer, and the siren was further away so it was quieter.

I have updated the handbook regarding the timings of the shots (section 6).  I have concluded that while most witnesses say they heard three shots, they are not talking about the same three shots: 

 

Hi Mark, I am delighted you have continued your research but intrigued by what I perceive is a change in your perceptions. Please could you confirm : You believe the evidence suggests more than three shots (six shots)? You believe the Dictabelt recording is indeed recorded around the right time, and within the location of the assassination but doesn't match the films? 

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