The Motorcade Puzzle

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/22/2019 at 5:42 PM, Robin Unger said:

Thanks Mark

Zapruder GIF showing the two running men.

 

On 10/22/2019 at 5:47 PM, Robin Unger said:

Life Magazine Paschall frame.

This is a rather nice juxtaposition Robin, because it suggests that the man in the light shirt runs across Main Street towards the pickup truck stopped on Commerce Street, while the dark shirted "Duck Man" runs straight up the grass.

About 35 seconds after Z405 Cancellare takes his first photo:

If you look closely behind the same pickup truck, you see a light shirted man, who may well be the same person.  Its just a guess of course, but the timing seems a good match as he would have had enough time to take cover as he watched the unfolding chaos on Elm Street.

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/22/2019 at 6:37 PM, John Butler said:

10 railroad men are nowhere near him.  He is not on the railroad bridge.  And, they are not either.  Great photo / frame.  It gives the lie to this:

 

The Altgens 7 photo is rather interesting John, thanks for sharing the version showing the people on top of the overpass (it often gets cropped off).  Not only do we see Sam Holland and his friends who saw the puff of smoke on the knoll, there are a number of other useful witnesses visible.

If you look closely you can see the outline of Bill Decker in the rear left of the police lead car looking back towards the action.  He said he saw a spray of water come from the presidential limo (presumably Z313), and a bullet bouncing off the concrete, which I think was the final shot around Z400 (roughly when this photo was taken coincidentally).  Royce Skelton and Austin Miller are visible on the top of the underpass, and they both reported a bullet hitting the road too.  All of this testimony was reported independently on the day of the assassination, so I feel it can be trusted.

If anyone needs more details and references, I explain this shot in section 6.3 and appendix D.8 of my book here:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

I think there is a strong chance this final shot was the one that disintegrated and created the shrapnel that hit James Tague as the trajectory is a straight line from the sixth floor, as shown in the animation.

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/23/2019 at 2:10 AM, Chris Davidson said:

There are a couple of sync points for Bell/Wiegman.

I used Charles Hester and his entry into the colonnade shadow as my sync point.

I lightened him as he appears in the background (just behind the foreground lamp post).

The other sync point is Beatrice moving her left hand/arm off the ground and backwards, if one desires to use this as a sync.

Difference from the Charles sync to the Beatrice sync = 7 Bell to 11 Wiegman frames

The Charles sync span equals 32 Bell frames = 32/15.6 = 2.05 sec.

Yes Chris, it looks like Charles Hester jumping into the colonnade is a good synchronization point between the Bell and Wiegman films.  I hadn't seen this detail before as I have been viewing poor quality versions of the Bell film, so thanks for sharing it.

Wiegman stops filming here, and dashes down the lawn to film the Newman family as I recall.  This run is partially captured by the Couch film, which is crucial as this syncs what is going on on Elm Street, and Baker dashing towards the TSBD.

The film jigsaw pieces are falling neatly into place!

[Chris Davidson]

On 10/22/2019 at 6:58 AM, Mark Tyler said:

I think this is correct Chris.

That few seconds of the Paschall film is rather interesting, not just for the car but also you can see Zapruder and Sitzman walking away from their position on their perch, which means they took just 5-10 seconds to get down after Zapruder stopped filming.  If the animation timings are correct, then it also means that Paschall filmed the knoll area 18.5 seconds after Z313 and the fatal shot.

Greg Jaynes suggests that there was some movement behind the picket fence at that time, and he calculated this to be 16.45 seconds after the fatal shot at Z313:

http://jfk.hood.edu/Collection/Weisberg Subject Index Files/P Disk/P Letter/Item 55.pdf

I've only viewed poor quality versions of this film so I've not seen this movement in detail, only a flicker of light which could simply be tree foliage moving in the breeze.  Has anyone else seen the original film?

This looks about right Chris.  I have tweaked the timing of my "Bell 3" and Paschell yellow flashes to match your triangulation as it makes things a little easier to understand in the animation.  Thanks for the idea!  The Paschall flash also syncs the bus turning the corner onto Houston St - its amazing how much useful detail is contained in that few seconds of grainy old film.

This helps match the Paschell and Bell films as we see Zapruder walking in both.  Also, the Wiegman and Bell films due to Charles Hester jumping up soon after Altgens 8 was taken.

It looks like I included 2 extra interlaced frames in the Paschall span. 

The span is 21 frames (21/18.3 = 1.14sec), instead of the original 23. Sorry about that.

Updating the running time count when Paschall and Bell are added after the Bell stop is 18.5 + 1.14 + 2.05 = 21.69sec from extant z313.

[Chris Davidson]

The total time from Wiegman's start to the Bell/Wiegman sync (frame after the sunlight on Charles' hand) = 26.83 seconds     Seconds Counter = 25/30 = .83

This allows you (deductive reasoning) to compare the sync from "front to back" and "back to front"

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/25/2019 at 4:41 PM, Chris Davidson said:

It looks like I included 2 extra interlaced frames in the Paschall span. 

The span is 21 frames (21/18.3 = 1.14sec), instead of the original 23. Sorry about that.

Updating the running time count when Paschall and Bell are added after the Bell stop is 18.5 + 1.14 + 2.05 = 21.69sec from extant z313.

So if the gap from Z313 to Hester jumping into the colonnade is 21.69 seconds, then the gap from Z295 (the start of Wiegman filming) is 22.67 seconds.

18 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

The total time from Wiegman's start to the Bell/Wiegman sync (frame after the sunlight on Charles' hand) = 26.83 seconds     Seconds Counter = 25/30 = .83

This allows you (deductive reasoning) to compare the sync from "front to back" and "back to front"

This timing seems about right as it was towards the end of the 27.2 second segment of the Wiegman film which was broadcast on the day of the assassination.

Next, we need to solve the problem that I call the "Wiegman timing anomaly" which I outline in appendix C of my book:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

In short, there is 2-3 second missing gap between the Wiegman film and the Zapruder film between Z295 and Z447 (if you assume the expected frame rates of 18.3 FPS and 24 FPS for the respective cameras).  I solve this issue by changing the recorded frame rate for the Wiegman film from 24 FPS, and moving it higher to match 18.3 FPS between Z295 and Z447.  The calculations in this thread (and my animation) use a Zapruder frame rate of 18.3 FPS, which means the early section of the Wiegman film would need to average 31.9 FPS to sync with Z295 to Z447 (see table 4 in the book).

To exactly match the 22.67 seconds mentioned at the beginning of this post we would need to use an average Wiegman rate of about 28.37 FPS, i.e. 24 * (26.8 / 22.67).  Ergo:

22.67 = 26.8 * (24 / 28.37)

i.e. Real time = Broadcast time * (FPS factor)

Both 28.37 FPS (total average) and 31.9 FPS (early average Z295-Z447) are in the approximately correct range which I tested in my book using various checks, so this all feels about right to me [1] (given the usual margins for error, etc).

QED

Note [1]: As I explain in the book, cameras of this era were relatively primitive and didn't maintain a constant frame rate, so by Z295-Z447 the Zapruder film was probably running a little slower (the FBI measured Zapruder's camera recording film at an average of 18.3 FPS for the first 30 seconds, and then 17.6 FPS for the final 30 seconds, so the device slowed down as a scene was filmed).  In other words, in 1963 the Zapruder camera was probably running slower than 18.3 FPS at that point, and the Wiegman camera was running faster than its usual rate, which is the logic behind pushing the rate up so much at the beginning to 31.9 FPS, which would then fall to 28.4 or lower by the end of the Wiegman film clip being studied.

Caveat:  This all assumes the cause of the "Wiegman timing anomaly" was a higher than expected frame rate.  Readers may disagree with this, in which case a new interpretation of the 2-3 second gap in the Wiegman/Zapruder films Z295-Z447 will be required.  Dale Myers avoids this problem by saying Wiegman started filming at Z246, but this can be proven to be false via the Altgens 6 photo which fails to show the Mayors car in the correct place turning onto Elm Street.

For a good explanation of this problem and the geometry involved, readers should have a look at Pat Speer's online book:

http://www.patspeer.com/chapter6:piecesontheroad

See the section "Where’s Dearie?".

[Chris Davidson]

On 10/25/2019 at 5:33 PM, Chris Davidson said:

This allows you (deductive reasoning) to compare the sync from "front to back" and "back to front"

Moving forward slowly.

I was trying to point out that the next logical step (imo) is inputting the sync times into an equation such as:

The time from Point A to Point C (26.83sec) minus the time from Point B to Point C (21.69sec) = the time from Point A to Point B (5.14 sec)

Convert that difference into Z frames and subtract from extant Z313.

 

[Chris Davidson]

On 10/27/2019 at 8:58 AM, Chris Davidson said:

Moving forward slowly.

I was trying to point out that the next logical step (imo) is inputting the sync times into an equation such as:

The time from Point A to Point C (26.83sec) minus the time from Point B to Point C (21.69sec) = the time from Point A to Point B (5.14 sec)

Convert that difference into Z frames and subtract from extant Z313.

 

Z313 - 94.06 (5.14 x 18.3) = Z219 = Starting sync for the Wiegman film, which is deduced from the previous sync point work started at extant Z435 counting backwards to extant Z313.

It may not be the true sync point for Z/Wiegman. And please, don't equate it to my belief that it is.

Eventually, it should fall into place.

The Z/Wiegman gap is created long before either z219 or z246 arrives.

Meyer's in his multi sync film project starts the Wiegman film at Z246. This also is not the true sync point for Z/Wiegman.

This becomes apparent when comparing it to where Myers plots his Wiegman frame 15 in relationship to Altgen's 6.

The difference between these two different Wiegman starting points in relationship to the extant Zfilm = 27 Zframes /18.3fps = 1.475sec

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

On 10/27/2019 at 8:58 AM, Chris Davidson said:

Moving forward slowly.

I was trying to point out that the next logical step (imo) is inputting the sync times into an equation such as:

The time from Point A to Point C (26.83sec) minus the time from Point B to Point C (21.69sec) = the time from Point A to Point B (5.14 sec)

Convert that difference into Z frames and subtract from extant Z313.

 

Take the 1.475 sec difference and add it to my sync of 21.69 sec.

1.475 + 21.69 = 23.165sec.

Now subtract that total from 26.83 sec.

26.83 - 23.165 = 3.665sec.

Once again, multiply 3.665 sec x 18.3fps = 67.06 frames

Once again, subtract from Z313

Z313- 67 = Z246 = Myers placement for the Wiegman film start.

Pretend we added that 1.475sec to the Bell gap.

 

[Mark Tyler]

15 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

It may not be the true sync point for Z/Wiegman. And please, don't equate it to my belief that it is.

Eventually, it should fall into place.

Fair enough Chris, I shall go with the flow and reserve judgement until the conclusion of your ideas.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Mark Tyler

[Chris Davidson]

Any input moving forward is welcome.

I'll try to address it as I go forward.

First, let's sync Myers starting point for Wiegman/Z246 after we added the 1.475sec Bell gap filler to the back end.

Another common sync point between Wiegman/Z, according to Myers is Z447.

I used an original version(36.5 sec) of Wiegman for its running time in this next graphic. Sorry about the quality.

Mark, you also list this (inset - z447.5) close enough, as  a sync point between Wiegman/Z.

Previously, it's 3.665 sec from the Wiegman start to Z313.

The difference between 11sec - 3.665 sec = 7.335sec x 18.3 = 134.23z frames

z313 + 134.23 = z447.23

 

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

Myers initial frame rate for Wiegman's camera(start to Z447sync) can be obtained 2 ways.

264 Wiegman frames / 24fps = 11 sec.

The second method I used was the conversion of the NFV version to a progressive frame version.

The red box in the lower left corner is the frame count (minus missing frames from the start and the first splice).

If you compare this with the 36.5sec version, there are a total of 20 frames missing from the start and splice.

This yields a total of 263 frames or 263 / 11sec = 23.9fps

 

[Chris Davidson]

The time span from the Z447 sync point to the Wiegman "Hester in shadow" Bell sync = 26.83 - 11 sec = 15.83sec.

Applying the same process of progressive frames between sync points, the Wiegman NFV version shows frame 561.

That's a total of 318 Wiegman frames between the sync points.

Remember though, there are 3.47sec (36.5 - 33.03sec) total, missing from the NFV version.

I have already accounted for 20 of those from the previous posting. 20/24 = .83sec

That leaves 3.47 - .83 = 2.64sec missing Wiegman frames between the z447 sync point to the Wiegman "Hester in shadow" Bell sync, which gets added to the existing 318 frames.

Without the missing frames 318/15.83 sec = 20.08 fps 

Since the initial Wiegman frame rate up to z447 averages 24fps, I'll use that as the rate for the missing 2.64 sec.

2.64 x 24fps = 63.36 =64 frames

318 + 64 = 382 frames

382/15.83sec = 24.13fps

 

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

The last Wiegman NFV progressive frame is 793.

Along with 84 (20 + 64) missing frames this completes the whole 36.5sec Wiegman film. imo

793 + 84 = 877 total Wiegman frames.

877/36.5sec = 24.02 fps

[Mark Tyler]

21 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

The time span from the Z447 sync point to the Wiegman "Hester in shadow" Bell sync = 26.83 - 11 sec = 15.83sec.

Applying the same process of progressive frames between sync points, the Wiegman NFV version shows frame 561.

That's a total of 318 Wiegman frames between the sync points.

Remember though, there are 3.47sec (36.5 - 33.03sec) total, missing from the NFV version.

I have already accounted for 20 of those from the previous posting. 20/24 = .83sec

That leaves 3.47 - .83 = 2.64sec missing Wiegman frames between the z447 sync point to the Wiegman "Hester in shadow" Bell sync, which gets added to the existing 318 frames.

Without the missing frames 318/15.83 sec = 20.08 fps 

Since the initial Wiegman frame rate up to z447 averages 24fps, I'll use that as the rate for the missing 2.64 sec.

2.64 x 24fps = 63.36 =64 frames

318 + 64 = 382 frames

382/15.83sec = 24.13fps

 

 

 

 

I believe I'm right in saying that the NFV logo means this is the so called "Groden" version of the Wiegman film.  The quality looks good, but as you say there are a few frames missing at the beginning.

On the subject of Wiegman frame rates, it may be useful for readers to see the Wiegman film replayed at various different speeds relative to 24 FPS:

24.0 FPS (100% speed as broadcast on the day of the assassination)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y-Z6gvsWCEUhNd6Zk9-r49F0fAXXZodx/preview

28.0 FPS (116.7%)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1x40-EjFCeJPde9X7vySoHgCJOnQSbdqO/preview

29.6 FPS (123.3%)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BGA2utyAUFyEuOcAXCv6mGi6Gf81CYeV/preview

32.0 FPS (133.3%)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sRb3tRblP6yEmv2ri_EzRzjclwz4gqRM/preview

The best place to use as a visual reference is towards the end with Hester jumping to his feet and the people running across the grass at the end.

I judge 24 FPS to be too slow, 32 FPS feels too fast, and 27-30 FPS feels correct in terms of my eyes.  Readers may agree or disagree, feel free to let me know either way!