Jump to content
The Education Forum

The inevitable end result of our last 56 years


Recommended Posts

I completely agree Jim.  But I don't know if I trust Beto to run the DNC, and I wonder if he has the skill set. But it's true, he's not doing anything, and he probably should have been!

The Dems in the past have won when they have a dynamic younger looking figure. JFK, Clinton, Obama who promises change. Even Jimmy Carter was not a fossil, 51 when he was elected.

It was a disappointment  for the Dems with state legislatures and of course the Senate, where now their only hope is to win both sides of the elections in January in Georgia to just tie, and get the advantage through VP Kamala Harris.

The most positive thing you can say about Trump is he got people to become more informed and more  involved as citizens.

Edited by Kirk Gallaway
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 5.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

47 minutes ago, David Andrews said:

Rudy: "Trump won't concede."

It's going to be like the end of Goldfinger, where we find out Trumpfinger didn't perish at Fort Knox, and is piloting Bond's escape plane.

 

hqdefault.jpg

Goldfinger:  I never lose, Mr. Bond.  That would be about as likely as a grown ass man being sucked through a tiny bullet hole in a jet fuselage!

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, James DiEugenio said:

First of all, I am glad that Biden won.  Whatever faults in his record, he is a decent man who will not pollute the political airwaves with flotsam as Trump did.  And although I do not like Harris very much, its good that a woman minority member is there as an exemplar. (But I will say, this would have all been over in 24 hours if not for the GOP legislatures who refused early counting of absentee ballots.)

But it bothers me that Biden did not win by a larger margin.  And in several states in the Rust Belt it was close, and in fact he lost Ohio.  This tells me that the whole GOP strategy of polarization had four years to work its alchemy and it did.  I really hope, but I do not think, that someone besides Perez will  run the DNC in order to try and stem that venom.  I think Beto would be good there, or maybe return Howard Dean.  The problem is, Biden owes a lot to Obama and Perez is Obama's guy.

One last point, something has to be done about polling.  I mean this is now twice in a row that major errors were made.  Trump's strength was seriously underestimated.

 

837428601_Screenshot2020-11-07152519.jpg.1005da9b74f368baa05dc26cda20b6e1.jpg

Do you really think Biden won?

I'm going to assume you know how the process works better than most Americans. In 2000 we did not know until December 12 when the Supreme Court gave their decision.

This is going to be 2000 on Steroids. Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada are all going to court.

This graph below shows the problem with just the Michigan count.

See where the Biden count increases vertically (after the 3rd vertical line in the graph below.)?

That is 138,000 votes for Biden.

It is the equivalent of tossing a coin and having it land on "heads" 138,000 times in a row.

The probability of tossing a coin 138,000 times and having it land on its head is 1 / 4.1 ^690,000.

Also expressible as 1 divided by 4.1 raised to the 690,000 power.

Also expressible as 1 / 410000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 + 689,950 more zeros.

The estimated number of atoms in the observable universe is 10^80.

Wisconsin has the same observable problem

1665808892_Screenshot2020-11-05112406.jpg.74db6f13b9e67dee28201900c06a6e42.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a look at the count from a completely different angle.

Benford's law, also called the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading digit is likely to be small. For example, in sets that obey the law, the number 1 appears as the leading significant digit about 30% of the time, while 9 appears as the leading significant digit less than 5% of the time.

image.png.c978a4bff488f355418762afc9f72172.png

For the statistically challenged, the Trump Data follows the natural pattern under Benford's law. All fraud free elections with a sufficiently large data set (like a Presidential election, not 30 fourth graders electing class president) follow the curve shown in the Trump Data.

Clearly something is wrong with the Biden data.

Benford's law has all kinds of applications. It is usually used as an early warning that something is anomalous in a data set. Accountants and auditors will use it as a test to determine if a large sample of transactions are potentially fraudulent. (Also sports betting fixing and scientific testing.)

In the United States, evidence based on Benford's law has been admitted in criminal cases at the federal, state, and local levels.

If a sample of 30,000 checks looks like the Trump Curve, then the sample can go on to the next "test."

If a sample of 30,000 checks looks like the  Biden curve, then the sample needs to be looked at more closely.

Here is the best part. It is possible to commit fraud and "hide" it from the Benford Law test. A fraudster in a company could steal dollar amounts that conform to Benford Law expectations. The fraudster would simply steal money in 10 increments of $1,000; then 9 increments of $2,000; then 8 increments of $3,000 ...... and 1 increment of $9,000.

Biden was losing so bad in the states he needed to win, they did not have time to make sure their ballot fraud would be hidden in a Benford's Law test.

It's Science!

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wheeler deserves an A for effort with his "statistical" play.

Biden got 6 flips -- Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Omaha.  I predicted them all.

Somebody ask Wheeler to contact me so I can tell him where to send my trophy...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Dead people voting is also an issue that "President Elect Biden" will have to contend with in the coming weeks.

World Champion Boxer Joe Frazier Voted this Year in Pennsylvania — But He Skipped Campaigning for Joe Biden Because He’s Been Dead Since 2011

Pennsylvania is a problem for a number of reasons. Judge Alito's order to segregate ballots that arrived after 8:00PM was ignored twice.

The PA legislature (Republican controlled) is ultimately responsible for certifying the electors. If fraud was involved in the count, they don't have to certify.

Each state has similar rules but the devil is in the details. For example, it is not clear what happens in a state house is "split" D & R. It all depends on the laws of each state.

For reference though.

  • Arizona, Repubs. control both houses.
  • Georgia Repubs. both houses.
  • Michigan Repubs. both houses.
  • Nevada Dems. both houses.
  • N. Carolina Repubs. both houses.
  • Penn. Repubs. both houses.
  • Wisconsin Repubs. both houses.

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

They won't lift an actual finger for him in Arizona, because he acted like a sociopath when John McCain died.  Cindy still has influence.

Help in Michigan will be half-hearted.  He'll be perceived as a liability well rid of because of the Whitmer kidnap plot and his refusal to outright condemn it.

No contested presidential election has ever been won by the contestor.

Edited by David Andrews
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bob,

I know the RWers are all trying to say this is Florida 2000.  And I know they are hard at work manufacturing visuals and pics etc trying to say Gore was declared president etc.

The problem with this is that its a Rudy G rewrite of what happened.

Gore was originally declared the winner in Florida. Early in the night. Since the exit polls did not realize what Harris had done in expunging voters and what the state police were doing to keep them from the polls.  But that call changed during the night, before any  national announcement was made. Florida was then declared undecided.  Jack Welch, then called Fox News and pushed them to declare it for W. Which they did.  That started a bandwagon effect and W was declared the winner in Florida, and the election.  To the point that Gore called W and conceded.  Gore  was about to go on TV and concede in public.  But his Florida manager called him at the last minute and said, hold it, you are only down by 545 votes. Don't concede to the media.  So Gore then called W back and said he was retracting.  HIs Florida manager then told him to demand a recount.  As that recount began to show Gore was going to win, Scalia stepped in and stopped it.  The Supreme Court then made one of its worst decisions ever, right down there with Plessy v Ferguson and the Dred Scott case. And it was that decision, which Scalia himself called a POS, that appointed W to the presidency.  In an election he lost both in the popular vote and in the EC.

Believe me, I know all about what happened in Florida.  And so should you. What Jeb Bush did to get his brother elected should have put him and Harris in prison. And that would have saved the lives of 600,000 innocent Iraquis.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Robert Wheeler said:

Uh oh.

Cliff and Doug got the "Wheeler is posting alert." Ron, Steve and Kirk, wake up.

I picked all 6 Biden flips in YOUR contest, Wheeler. 

Where's my trophy, bey-otch?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey what about a trophy for me? I got 49 out of 50!, and Biden at 291! The one miss is Georgia but that really hasn't been called yet, right? I just put Maine for Biden, I guess there's a split thing in Maine? Actually that is a pretty  good idea for all the states to do. It's more equitable, at least short of abolishing the electoral outright!

I see Wheeler with his calculations still wasn't aware of the "red mirage". That's what you get with one  sided sources. Everyone was warned for weeks. As Jim said, because some of the Republican state legislatures didn't let them count the early mail in ballots ahead of time. They counted them at the end, and everybody knew weeks in advance that the early mail in votes were largely for Biden! No amount of math and probability have anything to with it!  Trump himself, all but prohibited his voters from doing mail in ballots.   Hello!

election_map.png.4d68989a92371bfe6c44b064eca854bb.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

Everybody's out today!

Honestly, I'm almost bored of Joe Biden already. He'll talk about unity. I don't expect him to say anything he hasn't been saying..

But that's ok, I'm not so empty that I expect a promotional seminar everyday, telling me what to think,  who to love and who to hate, like I have everyday the last 4 years! It's been like a campaign year EVERY YEAR FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS!!!

But even then, so much of it was  publicly so stupid, just designed to relieve some  perpetual desperate boredom factor.

I'm more self sufficient, and for the whole of my life, I've  got along quite well without depending on a fix from some  politician every day. Thank You!

I'd be more happy with someone who took their job seriously  and just quietly went about doing it!

 

Edited by Kirk Gallaway
Link to post
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...