The inevitable end result of our last 56 years

[Ron Ecker]

27 minutes ago, W. Niederhut said:

      Speaking of Trump wearing a ball and chain on the links, this is one of the funniest things I've seen during the past miserable week-- and, Lord knows, we could all use a little comic relief... 🤪

Video captures Trump’s profane Thanksgiving Day rant as he hits his golf ball into a pond

www.rawstory.com/2020/11/watch-video-captures-trumps-profane-rant-as-he-hits-golf-ball-into-a-pond/

 

 

I'm surprised that he admitted hitting the ball into a pond. Why didn't he claim the ball was actually a remotely controlled device planted by Democrats? He could say he gave it to Giuliani as evidence to present in a lawsuit, but Gugliani lost the ball along with his marbles.

 

 

 

[Steve Thomas]

32 minutes ago, Ron Ecker said:

I'm surprised that he admitted hitting the ball into a pond. Why didn't he claim the ball was actually a remotely controlled device planted by Democrats? He could say he gave it to Giuliani as evidence to present in a lawsuit, but Gugliani lost the ball along with his marbles.

Ron,

You mean somebody interrupted the ball in mid-flight using a computer program invented by a dead guy in Venezuela and it actually landed in Germany? What fraud! Somebody should investigate!

We'll use that "Statistician to the Stars" expert that that Powell lady is using.

Steve Thomas

[Chris Davidson]

10 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Only two counties in Wisconsin(Dane+Milwaukee) with enough voters to cover the concern above.

Wisconsin- 25,163 + 143,379 = 168,542           143,379/168,542 = 85% Biden  15% Trump

Start feeding the Dane county mail in ballots.

85% x 190,000 = 161,500 Biden  Trump 28,500

The remaining votes in Dane county would have split approx 66% to 33% in Biden's favor.

 

 

Right idea above, wrong county.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/nov/04/fact-checking-avalanche-wisconsin-election-misinfo/

Excerpt below from link:

"So, predictably, the mail-in results from that area led to a spike in the number of Democratic votes when the Associated Press added that count -- reported all at once -- to its vote tally about 3:30 a.m.

From 3:26 to 3:44 a.m. in the Associated Press election reporting stream, the vote for former Vice President Joe Biden jumped by 149,520 (9.2% of Biden's total votes) and Trump's vote jumped by 31,803 votes (2% of his total votes). Milwaukee County accounted for most but not all of that jump.

These votes were all reported together because Milwaukee and 38 other communities used a central count location. Other communities counted absentee ballots at the polling places, and reported them along with their in-person vote totals."

[Douglas Caddy]

60 Minutes: 

Chris Krebs, a lifelong Republican, was put in charge of the agency handling election security by President Trump two years ago. When Krebs said the election was the country's most secure ever, Mr. Trump fired him. Now, Krebs speaks to Scott Pelley.

 

Chris Krebs explains why President Trump's claims of election interference are false - CBS News

[Sandy Larsen]

 

11 hours ago, Robert Wheeler said:

Re: Michigan - In other words, only 4.0536% of total votes in this "batch" went to Trump.

If you are not a numbers person, that 4% number is the equivalent of flipping a coin 26 times and having it land heads 25 times (Biden) and tails 1 time (Trump).

 

If you're not a number's person, you certainly shouldn't be looking to Wheeler for number problems and their solutions. For starters, 4% isn't equivalent to 1 out of 26 flips. It is equivalent to 1 out of 25 flips. 

(1 / 25) x 100% = 4%

But more seriously, modeling the number of Trump supporters with coin flips makes no sense given that this is not a probability problem. It is a problem of which voting district(s) the ballots came from. It doesn't surprise me that a district might have only 4% Trump supporters.

 

Quote

Niederhut says he is a psychiatrist. He should have a solid understanding of the level of improbability of flipping a coin 26 times and only getting tails once. 

The odds are about 1 in 15,511,210,043,330,985,984,000,000.

 

 

Here we see Wheeler actually using a coin-flip probability model to understand the odds of the ballots being only 4% for Trump. In doing so he makes two enormous mistakes and one minor one. The minor one is that he has the coin being flipped 26 times. As I showed above, 26 should be 25.

The next error is that he miscalculated the "1 in 15,511,210,043,330,985,984,000,000" odds/probability number. The odds of "flipping a coin 26 times and only getting tails once" is calculated as follows:

1  in  (2^26 / 26) =  1 in 2,581,110

Large, but not that enormous number Wheeler calculated.

But both of these mistake are moot given the fact that Wheeler is trying to use a probability model (coin flips) to solve a non-probability problem. Which is a serious mistake. (Either that or he is trying to solve a probability problem, but is doing so in a very simplistic, incorrect way.)

 

[Douglas Caddy]

Commentary of the brilliant Professor Juan Cole whose posts I read everyday:

 

Lesson of Biden victory for Republicans: There aren’t enough poorly educated White People to win with a Politics of Racial Grievance Any More

 

https://www.juancole.com/2020/11/republicans-educated-grievance.html

[Jeff Carter]

The article shared by Rob W provides a sharp statistical analysis without making unsubstantiated claims. It is similar to analysis I had read in the past regarding vote count anomalies in Ohio in 2004 and in Mexico in 2006. The paper identifies anomalies relevant to the Biden's status as president-elect, and carefully explains why they are anomalous and worthy of inquiry.

Anomalies In Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020

A “fact-checking” site like Politifact tends to be satisfied debunking claims made on Twitter by people who obviously don’t know what they are talking about. The votepatternanalysis paper makes a good case that, for example, the Wisconsin district anomalies are odd because of the voting margin and the size of the sample. And that it is one of four identified anomalous districts most crucial to the Biden win, which also appear as four of the top seven most anomalous districts in the entire country. That’s very curious.

Of course, the presence of anomalies does not necessarily indicate a fraudulent process. Last year’s federal election in Bolivia was annulled and the incumbent chased out of the country after election monitors from the OAS raised an alarm over what they perceived as unexplainable vote spikes. However, the OAS position was challenged within days by another election monitoring group, who were able to itemize the methodological flaws which informed the OAS analysis. Subsequent peer reviews established that the OAS position was indeed entirely flawed, as was ultimately confirmed by the long-delayed replay of the election which resulted in an even larger win for the incumbent MAS Party. But Bolivia suffered through an entire year of unrest due to this flawed report.

[Bob Ness]

1 hour ago, Douglas Caddy said:

Commentary of the brilliant Professor Juan Cole whose posts I read everyday:

 

Lesson of Biden victory for Republicans: There aren’t enough poorly educated White People to win with a Politics of Racial Grievance Any More

 

https://www.juancole.com/2020/11/republicans-educated-grievance.html

The republicans have been going for this vote for decades, although I don't necessarily identify them as the "Racial Grievance" block. More along the lines of the almost equally condescending "low information voter" who have been encouraged to ignore academics and journalists who have been replaced to a great degree by disgruntled influencers who ring an emotionally potent message that replaces considered information.

It's so much easier to move people with "Mexican rapist" as opposed to "Guatemalan refugee", the latter of which requires understanding circumstances outside the experience or awareness of somebody who has little time to investigate such issues. They're low hanging fruit if they can be encouraged to vote and the republicans have been successful mobilizing them to a great degree.

Unfortunately, as time goes on, it appears the extent they have to move these people means they also have to continue with more and more extreme arguments to fuel the anger. It's rigged! Fraud! DoJ, FBI corrupt! These are easy messages to bleet out and require no actual evidence; just the faith and/or cynicism of the people they're trying to influence.

[Chris Davidson]

Unfortunately for the Trumpsters, a requested hand recount has been completed at a cost of 3 million dollars in both Dane/Milwaukee counties.

The end result was a slightly larger gain in the voting lead for Biden.

Here is a random selection of total votes in some of the Milwaukee wards.

It is not a difficult concept to comprehend.

This ratio is Biden 87% Trump 13%.

Compare it to Politifact or RW's  claims or whomever you desire, it's just different dressing with the same results.

 

 

[David Andrews]

2 hours ago, Douglas Caddy said:

Commentary of the brilliant Professor Juan Cole whose posts I read everyday:

 

Lesson of Biden victory for Republicans: There aren’t enough poorly educated White People to win with a Politics of Racial Grievance Any More

 

https://www.juancole.com/2020/11/republicans-educated-grievance.html

Yes, but still too many. all believing that they'd be as rich and liberated as Trump if only a vast conspiracy weren't holding them down and giving their rights to "undeserving" peoples.  Again, very much like the poor whites of the antebellum South and the Reconstruction years.

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/29/we-will-exterminate-you-proud-boys-and-trump-diehards-confront-counter-protesters-in-raleigh_partner/

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by David Andrews

[Joe Bauer]

9 hours ago, Bob Ness said:

The republicans have been going for this vote for decades, although I don't necessarily identify them as the "Racial Grievance" block. More along the lines of the almost equally condescending "low information voter" who have been encouraged to ignore academics and journalists who have been replaced to a great degree by disgruntled influencers who ring an emotionally potent message that replaces considered information.

It's so much easier to move people with "Mexican rapist" as opposed to "Guatemalan refugee", the latter of which requires understanding circumstances outside the experience or awareness of somebody who has little time to investigate such issues. They're low hanging fruit if they can be encouraged to vote and the republicans have been successful mobilizing them to a great degree.

Unfortunately, as time goes on, it appears the extent they have to move these people means they also have to continue with more and more extreme arguments to fuel the anger. It's rigged! Fraud! DoJ, FBI corrupt! These are easy messages to bleet out and require no actual evidence; just the faith and/or cynicism of the people they're trying to influence.

True in all these respects imo.

Trump killed Hillary and Biden in most all of the rural areas of the country. 

The percentage of white and poor white people is much higher in this part of the U.S.

However, the large urban areas contain most of our population now and the ethnic make up is often majority non-white.

California is over 51+% Hispanic now. With whites, blacks, asians, native Americans and others filling in the other 48%.

It's true that the traditional California family dinner meal is no longer mom's home cooked meat loaf, mashed potatoes, peas and carrots, but more often enchiladas, tacos, beans and rice.   Which (after eating both for years now as a California resident) I am a lover of both!

I am getting used to Spanish language and music radio stations too and which are half the radio stations now as well. You have to learn the basics of Spanish because every day you interact with non-english/spanish speaking only people everywhere. 

It's a strange language and cultural shift in just two generations but you can't change it back. The ethnic influx numbers have long ago surpassed a line to a "no return" degree imo.                    

The Repubs have been playing the race card for decades now to the rest of the country. Angering and scaring white Americans every day 24/7 mostly through massive and incessant right wing political radio talk show propaganda ( Limbaugh, Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingram, Mark Levin, Michael Savage, etc. etc. ) that our country is no longer a mostly European lineage and culture Caucasion one with millions of illegals flooding in unstopped for decades now.

Bush and especially Trump were all in  - in this racial boogieman political fear propaganda campaign tactic.

Yes, it is a numbers game.  White Americans are not reproducing near as much as the other ethnic groups are. Black Americans are not really increasing in numbers as much as the new immigrant wave either.

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Joe Bauer

[Chuck Schwartz]

Lock him up..NY Attorney General Letitia James has 67 indictments on trump ready to be unsealed on January 21, 2021

[W. Niederhut]

32 minutes ago, Chuck Schwartz said:

Lock him up..NY Attorney General Letitia James has 67 indictments on trump ready to be unsealed on January 21, 2021

    Reasons to be cheerful, indeed.

    Two important reasons Trump should be prosecuted, in my opinion;

1)  No one should be above the law in our society.

2)  His cult must be confronted with reality, to circumvent their idealization of a sociopath.

[Cliff Varnell]

4 hours ago, Jeff Carter said:

The article shared by Rob W provides a sharp statistical analysis without making unsubstantiated claims. It is similar to analysis I had read in the past regarding vote count anomalies in Ohio in 2004 and in Mexico in 2006. The paper identifies anomalies relevant to the Biden's status as president-elect, and carefully explains why they are anomalous and worthy of inquiry.

Anomalies In Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020

A “fact-checking” site like Politifact tends to be satisfied debunking claims made on Twitter by people who obviously don’t know what they are talking about.

Like the guy on the Ed Forum (Jeff Carter) who claimed Americans don't vote on paper ballots?

All the votes in these spikes were hand-marked mail-in ballots.  There is a paper trail.  That's why Republican election officials have signed off on the fairness of the election.

4 hours ago, Jeff Carter said:

The votepatternanalysis paper makes a good case that, for example, the Wisconsin district anomalies are odd because of the voting margin and the size of the sample.

Those hand-marked mail-in ballots were recounted.  Biden added votes.  Trump apologists ignore the historic unpopularity of Trump in inner-city black precincts.

4 hours ago, Jeff Carter said:

And that it is one of four identified anomalous districts most crucial to the Biden win, which also appear as four of the top seven most anomalous districts in the entire country. That’s very curious.

Only for those who don't know a damn thing about American politics (Jeff Carter et al).

4 hours ago, Jeff Carter said:

Of course, the presence of anomalies does not necessarily indicate a fraudulent process.

There are no anomalies.

It's a narrative the Trumpistas feel compelled to push.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dennis Berube]

9 hours ago, Kirk Gallaway said:

You know Dennis,  you and couple of other guys here could benefit from actually attending a Poly/sci class at you Community College. I see from you some of your statements that you  have good intentions, you express sympathy with FDR, you're hep to the decades long attempted marginalization to privatization scam of the USPS, though curiously silent by what Trump tried to do with his De Joy appointment.

Thanks for the suggestion Kirk, I have a degree in Political Science from a university (I'm not boasting about it, merely correcting your false assumption). His de joy appointment was terrible, as is just about every Biden appointment revealed thus far. Biden has already made it clear he is the corporate cheerleader, not a president. Was trump a great friend of the CFR like Hillary? "I'm glad you moved across the street so I don't have to walk as far for you guys to tell me what to do." (Paraphrased) Does it get worse than that? I view Biden as a continuation of the Clinton version of the Democrat party, right wing corporatists, especially dangerous due to its docile supporters. As Robert said, some of us are looking past the election because there is seemingly an intent to enact the great reset, bringing a reduction of rights, increased surveillance, censorship and destruction of the remainder of the new deal ideology through neo-liberal economics. 

 

9 hours ago, Kirk Gallaway said:

There was another such silly statement made here that Trump was the "best Democrat since FDR and JFK" that you also probably subscribe to.

I did not say that or "subscribe" to it at any point. I disagree with most of what trump has done and believes in, but not to the point where I am emotionally blinded and unable to be objective in my political analysis, it's kind of polisci101. If the election was indeed stolen, I much prefer the legal candidate to the non-legal. I believe that is more important to the long term viability of our country as trump will be a non political factor within 4 years no matter what happens. Also, national election fraud indicates a major systemic backing from all of the corporate powers you claim to despise that have been censoring people left and right if they speak out of line. And none of those companies supported trump, major understatement there.

A quick summary of vote issues...

https://spectator.us/reasons-why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-deeply-puzzling/