The inevitable end result of our last 56 years

[Benjamin Cole]

1 hour ago, Jeff Carter said:

Bob - I do not wish to deny or disrespect the experiences of your friend, but my understanding of the 2014 Ukraine coup and the instrumental role of a far-right “nationalist” cadre in facilitating the coup at the ground level has relied on the published accounts of multiple reporters/ journalists also on the scene. That these accounts are consistent with each other in observing the same events directed by the same persons leads me to accept these accounts as materially objectively factual.

Describing the events as a “revolt”, an “uprising”, or a “revolution”, does not overcome the most salient fact that a democratically elected government was removed by unconstitutional means. This is civics class stuff but… democracies have constitutions which establish the functioning methodology of the a political system, and establish the legal frameworks by which governments can be impeached or removed before the end of their mandate. A mob storming the legislature, in most instances and certainly not in Ukraine’s constitution, does not have legal standing - as most posters on this thread seem to understand when it comes to Jan 6/21.

The mantra - “did you get it in writing?” - usually applies when someone has been taken in by some sort of shyster/ fraud artist.  But as a legalistic alibi, it doesn’t hold up in the field of geopolitics and it doesn’t excuse a pattern of deceit. In fact, following through with broken promises harms the integrity of an organization or polity, and may serve to reduce the “space” of negotiation in the future. That is, it may lead to unintended consequences with negative effect. In this case, senior political-diplomatic-military persons associated with NATO’s membership long warned of approaching and then crossing Russia’s red lines, which has now occurred. NATO’s response over the past months has doubled down on the error, insisting that Russia has no legitimate regional security concerns and that NATO will not acknowledge Russia’s identified red lines. This approach was at one time feasible, due to an obvious imbalance in relative strength (military and political), but those metrics seem to have since evened out. NATO members have responded with a cascade of economic penalties over the last few days, but it is far from clear that the consequence of these were properly “gamed” out. Tomorrow (Monday Feb 28) may kick off one of the craziest days in financial markets and exchanges in modern history.

On financial markets--

S&P 500 futures off marginally, Nasdaq futures down 1% 

Nikkei 225 down 0.3% mid-session in Tokyo

Looks like a down day on Monday but not by much. 

In truth, Ukraine is not important to Western prosperity, and Russia only because they sell oil and gas. 

Since Westerners are unwilling to block Russian oil and gas...the market seems to be saying "meh." 

Remember, before the Russian invasion, the markets "discounted" prospects.

The reality, sad as it is, is not a wider conflagration, or a ban of Russian oil and gas. 

Unlike China, Russia is not important in the global economy, and does not have extensive ties that bind America's elites. 

 

[Jeff Carter]

2 hours ago, W. Niederhut said:

P.S.  I'm still waiting for Jeff Carter and the Putin apologists to tell us what they think about Vladimir Sorokin's article in The Guardian today.  Why the silence?

Vladimir Putin sits atop a crumbling pyramid of power | Vladimir Sorokin | The Guardian

        Is Sorokin's perspective on the history of Putin and the Russian Federation during the past 20 years accurate?

        How about Gary Kasparov's perspective, which I posted here a week or so ago?  (Greeted by silence.)

        Is it possible that Kasparov and Sorokin know more about the modern Russian Federation than we do?  🤥

Sorokin’s perspective is based on a strained Lord of the Rings metaphor and a series of subjective opinions and adjective-laden surmises without direct referent to actual events or policies. He obviously dislikes Putin and the contemporary Russian political scene, but his psychoanalytical conceptions of the same appear more as a personal rant extemporizing his animosity rather than an intellectual framework by which to promote concern. That said, his literary works sound quite interesting.

In turn, your partisan version of schisms within the Russian Orthodox Church appear entirely weighted to positions developed during the time of the Soviet Union, arriving at conclusions which are also dependent on attitudes formed at the time of the Soviet Union - which no longer exists.

[W. Niederhut]

13 hours ago, Jeff Carter said:

Sorokin’s perspective is based on a strained Lord of the Rings metaphor and a series of subjective opinions and adjective-laden surmises without direct referent to actual events or policies. He obviously dislikes Putin and the contemporary Russian political scene, but his psychoanalytical conceptions of the same appear more as a personal rant extemporizing his animosity rather than an intellectual framework by which to promote concern. That said, his literary works sound quite interesting.

In turn, your partisan version of schisms within the Russian Orthodox Church appear entirely weighted to positions developed during the time of the Soviet Union, arriving at conclusions which are also dependent on attitudes formed at the time of the Soviet Union - which no longer exists.

          Vladimir Sorokin's vivid, detailed description of Putin's reign of terror and the Russian Federation's descent into totalitarianism is historically accurate, literary metaphors aside.   You strike out, once again.

         As for the history of the Russian Orthodox Church during the past century, I'm guessing that you are as clueless as most Western intellectuals.  At most you have possibly read Solzhenitsyn or the Mitrokhin archival material (published at Cambridge as The Sword and the Shield) about the infiltration and control of the ROC by the NKVD/KGB after 1917.  I doubt that you have read the more detailed historical writings of I.M. Andreyev on the subject.

       (You won't learn anything accurate on Wikipedia.  It has been systematically edited since 2007.)

       "Partisan schisms?"  As in Communist Party?  Are you kidding? The exiled ROCOR heirarchs had anathematized the KGB-controlled Moscow Patriarch for nearly a century, following the murder of Moscow Patriarch Tikhon by the NKVD in 1921.  There was no "schism" in the exiled ROCOR until it was seized by Putin and his FSB in 2007.  I should know, because a dear friend of mine published a book on the subject many years ago.

       Putin's first Moscow Patriarch Alexey II (Ridiger) was a known KGB agent with the code name, "Drozhdov."  The MP was a tool of the Soviet/Russian Federation state for the past century, managed by the KGB/FSB.  After 2000, Putin used his FSB-controlled MP to infiltrate and seize the ROCOR in Western Europe and North America, through an internal political coup.  (See Konstantin Preobrazhensky's 2009 book on that subject.)

https://www.amazon.com/KGB-FSBs-New-Trojan-Horse/dp/0615249086/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2EO3WG3UXC57K&keywords=Konstantin+Preobrazhensky&qid=1646019918&sprefix=konstantin+preobrazhensky%2Caps%2C122&sr=8-1

        Putin cynically viewed the (White) Russian Church Outside of Russia (ROCOR) as a mere international espionage tool for his fascist, totalitarian police state.   It was the same process that the NKVD/KGB/FSB had used to infiltrate and control the Russian Orthodox Church in the Soviet Union after 1917 -- a complete sacrilege. 

        Don't be fooled by Putin making a show of lighting an occasional candle in the Orthodox Church.  I've seen Russian mafia guys do that much on religious holidays. 

       Sadly, some delusional, right wing Republicans in the U.S. currently seem to think Putin is a "Christian nationalist."  It's an act.  He's no Christian.  He's a murderer and a thief.

Edited February 28, 2022 by W. Niederhut

[Matt Allison]

Ben- U.S. markets have priced in what has happened so far, as long as the situation doesn't dissolve into world war.

WRT the oil and gas: Biden isn't concerned about a problem for the U.S. when it comes to Russian oil and gas, but it's a completely different story for the European nations. They need it, and Biden is working with them, so when they say leave the oil and gas alone for now, that's what he's gonna do.

[Benjamin Cole]

4 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

Ben- U.S. markets have priced in what has happened so far, as long as the situation doesn't dissolve into world war.

WRT the oil and gas: Biden isn't concerned about a problem for the U.S. when it comes to Russian oil and gas, but it's a completely different story for the European nations. They need it, and Biden is working with them, so when they say leave the oil and gas alone for now, that's what he's gonna do.

Well...somewhat.

Oil and gas are, to large extent, fungible commodities in a globalized market. 

That is, sure the US can supply itself, but if global oil goes to $150 a barrel, then you can bet WTI (Texas crude) goes to $150 a barrel too.  It might take some time, but US oil and gas would flow more heavily offshore to make up for "lost" Russian production. 

In any event, Western governments have not chosen to hit Putin where it hurts, just as they have refused to hit Xi where it hurts. 

We can hope the Ukrainians manage to evict Russia without too much bloodshed, but that looks like a null set. 

All said and done, my guess (and everything is a guess) Putin has erred. The Ukrainians, the Poles, and who knows who else will not forget this. Like so many wars of occupation, the costs exceed the benefits.

Putin seems to have aged quite a bit in the last year. I wonder if he is healthy. 

 

 

[Ron Bulman]

I found this interesting this evening given other reports I've read about the failure he speaks of regarding the initial shock and awe attempt. 

Russia Stumbles in Biggest Test of Its Military Force (msn.com)

I understand the Russians can bring much more force to bear.  But can they sustain it, then sustain the occupation necessary to control the country?  With the sanctions imposed and more coming?

If Ukraine is provided with weaponry and other supplies how long can they resist?  This is not Iraq or Afghanistan, flat or treeless.  Conducive to guerilla operations.  The populace seems inspired to resistance initially at least.    

[Karl Hilliard]

15 minutes ago, Ron Bulman said:

 I understand the Russians can bring much more force to bear.  But can they sustain it, then sustain the occupation necessary to control the country? 

 

Like what happened in Afghanistan?

[James DiEugenio]

The Russians have not committed the other half of their forces yet.

What you do in an invasion like this is you send in the first wave and you then assess what needs to be done after.

 

 

[Benjamin Cole]

For those who care, the Nikkei 225 finished generally flat on Monday. 

I dare say, at this point the West might offer Putin a face-saving way to withdraw.

Remember, there were Americans who did not want to leave Afghanistan (or any other horrible, boondoggle occupation) for fear there would be a loss of face and people would not fear the US, or trust Washington as an ally. 

Putin will be told if he does not prevail in Ukraine, then Poland, the Nordics and everyone else will treat him as a paper tiger, a huge treat to Moscow. 

As a practical matter, how to let Putin "win" and leave? 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Benjamin Cole

[Joseph McBride]

VLAD CALLING VLAD: It is quickly apparent that economic sanctions against the Russian economy are causing devastating effects. The New York Times quotes Lenin himself as having once remarked, "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.” This reminds me of how President Eisenhower brilliantly ended the Suez Crisis in 1956, which he feared would spiral into a nuclear war, by threatening to ruin the British economy (see David A. Nichols's 2011 book EISENHOWER 1956: THE PRESIDENT'S YEAR OF CRISIS -- SUEZ AND THE BRINK OF WAR). We'll see if that can happen in this case.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Joseph McBride

[Steve Thomas]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/business/exxon-bp-shell-russia-oil/index.html

 

New York CNN Business —

“BP (BP) is cutting ties with Rosneft in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The British company said in a statement Sunday that it would exit its 19.75% stake in the Russian state oil giant, describing Moscow’s decision to attack its neighbor as “an act of aggression which is having tragic consequences across the region.”

BP CEO Bernard Looney and former CEO Bob Dudley will also stand down with immediate effect from Rosneft’s board, where they had served alongside Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

BP, which had called itself “one of the biggest foreign investors in Russia,” said the changes would lead to the company taking a “material” charge in its first quarter earnings. Its operating profit in 2025 would be about $2 billion lower than forecast as a result of the accounting changes, it added.

How Exxon, BP and Shell help Russia pump oil and gas

BP chair Helge Lund said that the company had operated in Russia for over 30 years and worked with “brilliant” colleagues there.

“However, this military action represents a fundamental change,” Lund said in a statement. “It has led the BP board to conclude, after a thorough process, that our involvement with Rosneft, a state-owned enterprise, simply cannot continue.””

 

Steve Thomas

[Matt Allison]

This is an extremely dangerous situation right now. I hope people realize that.

[Steve Thomas]

Russia State-Owned News Site Tass Hacked With ‘Putin Makes Us Lie’ Message

‘STOP THIS MADNESS’

by Jamie Ross Feb. 28, 2022

https://www.thedailybeast.com/tass-site-hacked-with-putin-makes-us-lie-message?ref=home?ref=home

“People logging on to Russian state-owned news agency Tass to get the Kremlin’s version of events in Ukraine got a shock early Monday. Instead of the latest lines from the Kremlin, the site showed an anti-war message that condemned President Vladimir Putin for forcing Russian journalists to lie. “Dear citizens. We urge you to stop this madness, do not send your sons and husbands to certain death. Putin makes us lie and puts us in danger,” the hacked site read. “In a few years we will live like in North Korea. What is it for us? To put Putin in the textbooks? This is not our war, let’s stop it!” It’s not clear who changed the site, but an Anonymous logo followed the message and it ended with the sign-off: “This message will be deleted, and some of us will be fired or even jailed. But we can’t take it anymore... Indifferent journalists of Russia.” After the hack was noticed on social media, the Tass website became unavailable."

Steve Thomas

[Benjamin Cole]

13 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

This is an extremely dangerous situation right now. I hope people realize that.

That's why I say there should be consideration of giving Putin a face-saving way out.  

I hope for a bloodless coup in Russia and new leadership. 

 

 

[Steve Thomas]

First Capitol riot trial opens in D.C.

“This is the first test of the Justice Department’s effort to transform its Jan. 6 manhunt into convincing arguments.”

By By Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney 02/28/2022

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/first-january6-trial-reffitt-00012216

“Nearly 14 months after a mob stormed the Capitol and threatened the certification of Joe Biden’s win in the presidential race, jury selection opened Monday for the first trial of one of the more than 750 people charged in connection with the attack.

A little after 9:30 a.m., potential jurors began filing into the cavernous ceremonial courtroom at U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, where Guy Reffitt, 49, a Texas oil rig worker, is set to face five felony counts, including civil disorder, seeking to obstruct the Electoral College count, carrying a firearm into a restricted area and obstruction of justice.”

We’ll have to see how this goes.

Steve Thomas