Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) Why is the stock market soaring amid a pandemic? Because ... www.salon.com › 2020/07/14 › why-is-the-stock-mark... 16 hours ago - Donald Trump enjoying the stock market rising (Getty Images/Salon) ... He's also the host of "The Bob Cesca Show" podcast, and a weekly guest on ... Contribute through LaterPay to support Bob's Salon articles -- all money ... Edited July 15, 2020 by Joe Bauer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Bulman Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Great article from Salon Joe. I wonder if David Talbot might not approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ron Bulman said: Great article from Salon Joe. I wonder if David Talbot might not approve. The article is on other websites besides Salon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James DiEugenio Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 As I have said, this was Kudlow's idea. He told Trump that the only way he could win was if the economy came back. What do you expect from an economist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Gallaway Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) It's a pretty good article. Yes Trump is sacrificing lives to try to revive the only card he can play, which is the economy. But I don't agree with their story line completely. I use to watch Trump announcements swing the markets several hundred points. In late 2017, the markets had a downturn where they were down 10%. One day where it was feared the market would break through critical support levels. The market opened substantially higher, then after a half hour, started selling off. Trump almost to the minute came in with a tweet about some hopeful progress, (which was bullsh-t) about trade negotiations with China. And then market turned around until someone talked to either Kudlow or Navarro who wasn't apprised of Trump's tweets, who said no progress with China has been made. For the last, I'd say a year and half, the markets see Trump for the bullshi-ter he is, that he doesn't possess any real knowledge about the markets, and pay no attention to him. I would say in the last 2 weeks, the markets are coming to accept Biden will be the next President, and for now, they're not freaking about it. But things have gone up so fast, and the long term economic outlook is so poor. It's due to have some air come out of the balloon. Edited July 15, 2020 by Kirk Gallaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 As I've been saying for the past few months, stock prices in 2020, generally, have been completely disconnected from economic fundamentals-- GDP growth rates, earnings, etc. Even in 2019, (and 2018) during the so-called "booming Trump economy," GDP growth rates in the U.S. were nothing to write home about-- only 2.1% in the 4th quarter of 2019, with record high market capitalization! The situation is so bizarre that, at times, I've doubted my own sanity-- although it's reassuring to know that the greatest stock picker on the planet, Warren Buffet, has also been sitting on the sidelines in 2020, waiting for this absurdly inflated Trump Stock Bubble to finally burst. The last time I checked, the "Buffet Index"-- market capitalization divided by GDP-- was at an all-time high. Historically, this may be somewhat similar to what happened on Wall Street after the Great Crash in October of 1929. After the Crash, the markets experienced some brief surges before completely bottoming out in the early 1930s. Like every bally hoo-ed "success" in Trump's career, his "booming economy" is largely an illusion-- and that was true even before the COVID disaster of 2020, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawrence Schnapf Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 it's because the "stock market" is not reflective of the entire US economy. Tech stocks dominate the NASDAQ and S&P. there is nothing suspicious hete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) Yesterday's 500+ point gain was explained as being fed by news of some progress in the Virus drug studies. Still, I have been watching the Dow Jones daily since it started crashing and then constantly rising 8,000 points since and I see a pattern of market infusion explanation that seems suspiciously illogical. The traditional market effecting economic factors are not applying to this market's record breaking swing back gains and I simply disagree with LS that the dominantly tech driven NASDAQ and S&P are primarily keeping this market boom going. Corporate sales and profits, consumer spending and confidence, budget deficits, international trade deals, manufacturing orders and output, commodities futures, unemployment figures often cited as market enhancers, new home sales and construction, etc.etc. These areas have collapsed to record, almost depression era levels and most importantly, most experts are saying these economic collapses will take years to come back to anything close to pre-pandemic levels. The huge daily gains ( 400, 500 points and more ) since the market bottoming out most often are explained as reactions to news other than the foundational real number economic ones I just cited. Talk of some nebulous or over-hyped trade deal progress. Virus drug studies. Lifted lockdowns and reinstated business openings and re-allowed recreational public social activity which have tragically resulted in explosive record breaking infection chaos and panic warning nationwide stress in the emergency care field. So, these other less economy effecting Dow capital gain infusion reasons don't hold any true economic improvement water weight versus the traditional ones, hence suspicion in their being touted as valid justification for individuals or groups pumping billions into the stock market in the middle of this record economic stress reality. This year, the question we're all asking is why the hell the markets are doing so well in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, not to mention the existence of a recession and a record-high budget deficit. As I write this on Monday, July 13, the Dow is up 452 points despite everything else collapsing around us. (At the end of the day, the Dow closed up just 10 points, due to bad news about the virus. More on this presently.) Astonishingly, the Dow has climbed 8,000 points since its pandemic low point on March 23. Why? Trump desperately wants to be re-elected this fall to avoid being prosecuted, not to mention getting crushed under an avalanche of incoming lawsuits. The presidency serves as his last best shield against true accountability. He knows as well as anyone that the economy is the only thing keeping him from an approval poll average in the low 20s, and a landslide victory for Joe Biden in November, similar to Barack Obama's resounding victory in 2008. Consequently, Trump's returning to some of his old tricks to try to keep the major market indexes happy, at the very least. Only this time, his tricks are exacerbating the pandemic and literally killing Americans, all for the sake of his re-election. Last year, Vanity Fair's William Cohan published a mind-blowing item that closely examined several "chaos trades" and the linkage between Trump's blurts and the movement of the S&P 500. Sure enough, someone — or a connected group of someones — was making colossal trades just prior to Trump's announcements about the trade war. When I say "colossal," I'm understating the magnitude of the windfalls these trades produced. Edited July 15, 2020 by Joe Bauer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) Does anyone honestly believe there isn't massive manipulation efforts going on with the illogically booming stock market? The 3 year long market surge is Trump's main ace-in-the-hole job performance touting card by a factor of 10X over any other and that he has been playing and falling back on since he took office. The Trump machine will do anything to keep popping this card out of his sleeve when the game's final biggest jackpot is on the line. Edited July 15, 2020 by Joe Bauer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Investors see the federal government throwing stimulus money at everything in order to keep the economy going. It's not like back in the day of the last recession, when Republican members of Congress didn't want to help Obama accomplish anything, thus making it hard for the Dems to pass a stimulus package. This time the Republicans need to save the economy, and Trump needs to save the economy. Unlike the Republicans under Obama, Democratic members of Congress want to do what's right for the country, even if it means helping out the Republicans and Trump. So there is no opposition to stimulus spending. Investors like that, and I believe it -- along with the irrational exuberance of investors who are Trump followers -- is the reason the markets keep rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 36 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said: Investors see the federal government throwing stimulus money at everything in order to keep the economy going. It's not like back in the day of the last recession, when Republican members of Congress didn't want to help Obama accomplish anything, thus making it hard for the Dems to pass a stimulus package. This time the Republicans need to save the economy, and Trump needs to save the economy. Unlike the Republicans under Obama, Democratic members of Congress want to do what's right for the country, even if it means helping out the Republicans and Trump. So there is no opposition to stimulus spending. Investors like that, and I believe it -- along with the irrational exuberance of investors who are Trump followers -- is the reason the markets keep rising. Indeed. Who can forget Paul Ryan, John Boehner, and the Koch's Tea Party House turning down Obama's "Mother of All No Brainers" debt ceiling deal in July of 2011? Now these guys are pouring trillions into Wall Street to keep asset bubbles inflated for Trump's 2020 re-election. A related issue is that Trump's Treasurer and Fed are printing and borrowing money hand over fist, deflating the value of the dollar, (and bonds) and rendering over-priced stocks more attractive, in comparison to cash and bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 38 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said: Investors see the federal government throwing stimulus money at everything in order to keep the economy going. Sandy, so far the only stimulus money thrown at average citizens has been the "one" $1,200 check they received 3 months ago. That's it! How far could that amount go over a three month period of bills due and a million other expenses for tens of millions of working class and poorer Americans? Yes, unemployment compensation collecting Americans have been receiving extra funds on a bi-monthly basis and that has really helped them ( ending just two weeks from now ) but most Americans suffering under this pandemic economic crash are not even collecting unemployment. And those business loans haven't done much to keep workers employed by the recipients and we are finding out many recipients of these funds are favored Trump supporters? 500 million dollar rich Tom Brady got what ... $300,000! Billionaire Floyd Mayweather Jr. got 1 million? ... along with the irrational exuberance of investors who are Trump followers -- is the reason the markets keep rising. That's exactly the point here with this article. The exuberant infusion of funds in the billions of dollars is irrational based on the reality of the economy crashing all around us. Naturally, you must consider an alternate reason for this irrational investment activity. And the most obvious one is to keep Trump's number 1 personal self-promoting bragging point he has always touted as his biggest accomplishment while in office...his so-called booming economy. Without this one bragging point, he has nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, W. Niederhut said: Indeed. Who can forget Paul Ryan, John Boehner, and the Koch's Tea Party House turning down Obama's "Mother of All No Brainers" debt ceiling deal in July of 2011? Now these guys are pouring trillions into Wall Street to keep asset bubbles inflated for Trump's 2020 re-election. A related issue is that Trump's Treasurer and Fed are printing and borrowing money hand over fist, deflating the value of the dollar, (and bonds) and rendering over-priced stocks more attractive, in comparison to cash and bonds. Exactly WN, exactly. Thanks for making the manipulated stock market gain scam clear and easy to understand in a simple short posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) Oh, the thread's been moved out of the general forum. Too non-JFK related. It's the death knell for it. Not arguing against this death knell move. I understand the main topic integrity reasoning. At least we got some decent input and feedback before it was kicked over. Edited July 15, 2020 by Joe Bauer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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