Dealey Plaza - No grand unified theory

[Eddy Bainbridge]

Jiggle analysis seems a highly plausible piece of evidence that is correlated over several studies. It seems to prove the Z313 shot did not come from the TBSD:

 

1. Zapruder reacted to the Z313 shot sound.

2. His reaction is recorded by a 'jiggle' of the camera seen on the film as a blurring.

3. The jiggle and the Z313 frame are too close together in time for a shot sound to reach Zapruder's ear from a TBSD shot.

4. The events are so close together that the shot must have come from somewhere close, like the Grassy Knoll.

 

My own doubt about this logic is not that the jiggle analysis is flawed, but I believe the Z film may be.

[Mark Tyler]

On 5/7/2021 at 11:08 AM, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Jiggle analysis seems a highly plausible piece of evidence that is correlated over several studies. It seems to prove the Z313 shot did not come from the TBSD:

 

1. Zapruder reacted to the Z313 shot sound.

2. His reaction is recorded by a 'jiggle' of the camera seen on the film as a blurring.

3. The jiggle and the Z313 frame are too close together in time for a shot sound to reach Zapruder's ear from a TBSD shot.

4. The events are so close together that the shot must have come from somewhere close, like the Grassy Knoll.

If Z313 and Z314 are part of a startle reaction then Zapruder must have heard the shot 3-4 frames before because that is the human reaction time of 150-200 ms.  You also have to add the time for the sound wave to reach Zapruder (a shot from the TSBD hitting JFK just after Z312, visible in Z313, would have been fired at Z310, but not heard by Zapruder until after Z314 as the bullet travels twice as fast as the speed of sound).  This means that the Z318 jiggles are consistent with a shot from the TSBD at Z310 as those 8 frames include both the time the sound takes to go from the TSBD to Zapruder and also the 3-4 frames of human reaction time.

Using this 8 frame gap on the earlier jiggles reveals possible shots at Z182 and Z219 (if another gunman was closer to Zapruder than the TSBD gunman it might be 6-7 frames gap between the shot and the jiggle, and if another gunman was further away from the TSBD it might be a 9-10 frame gap).  Bearing in mind the victims react to being injured at Z225, a shot at Z219 is the most obvious point for the so called single bullet theory, and the shot at Z182 is the one John Connally said he heard about 2 seconds before he was injured (Z182-Z219 = 2.0 secs).

The other thing to do with the jiggle analysis of the Z-film is to couple it with Zapruder's earliest interview:

Zapruder said he only heard one shot just before JFK reacted with his arms, and then heard one or two shots around the head shot.  Firstly, this seems to eliminate the very earliest jiggle at Z155-Z160 as being a shot because Zapruder clearly only heard one shot at the beginning, and if Z155-Z160 wasn't a shot then the jiggle is a false alarm.  As Zapruder only mentioned one early shot, this also challenges the statement that Connally made, but was the shot that Zapruder heard at the Z190-Z210 jiggle or the Z227-Z235 jiggle?  Maybe he heard a shot at Z190-Z210 but he simply didn't register the second noise?  Or maybe the Z190-Z210 jiggle is a false alarm and the real shot was the one at the Z227-Z235 jiggle?

The possible double bang at the head shot was widely reported by the witnesses, and Zapruder is a good example.  On the other hand, the witnesses could have been confused by echoes and other noises, such as the bullet hitting things (e.g. the shrapnel hitting other parts of the limo).  This is a fair point and is probably the dividing line regarding how people interpret the witnesses reports:

General Lone Nut Theory

Three bursts of gunfire noise = three shots with echoes and other associated noise.

General Conspiracy Theory

Three bursts of gunfire noise = three pairs of synchronized shots from two gunmen.

Both theories closely approximate the witness statements, so the truth is buried inside one of these general patterns.  Any theory involving just two bursts, or four, is contradicted by a large body of witness reports and is almost certainly wrong.

On 5/7/2021 at 11:08 AM, Eddy Bainbridge said:

My own doubt about this logic is not that the jiggle analysis is flawed, but I believe the Z film may be.

Aside from the issues of authenticity, I think the Zapruder film is flawed in the sense that it promises more than it delivers.  When we watch the film we have a sense of seeing everything, but this is of course a delusion as we miss crucial information regarding what really happened.  This is why I think the witness evidence is so important as it gives us a perspective on the sounds of shots, which helps establish other things like whether a jiggle in the film is a shot or a mere panning error.

[Tony Krome]

On 5/4/2021 at 3:29 AM, Tony Krome said:

Hickey discerned between the two rapid fire shots, he said the first of the rapid shots disturbed JFK's hair, the second impacted his head.

Hickey: The first shot of the second two seemed as if it missed because the hair on the right side of his head flew forward and there didn't seem to be any impact against his head

Brehm: [Regarding the final shot he heard]There was the hair, seemed to go flying [When Brehm states this, he waves his right hand forward from behind the right rear of his own head]

Brehm only heard 2 shots, which probably means, he, like others, heard the flurry as one shot.

My take on this, is that Hickey and Brehm saw the very same thing, and that the first flurry shot moved through the right side of JFK's hair. An instant later, the second flurry shot impacted his head.

Interestingly, both Brehm and Hickey have the hair flying forward, which is a quandary, for none of the SS agents reported the supersonic crack that a bullet makes before the shot sound.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Tony Krome

[Mark Tyler]

6 hours ago, Tony Krome said:

Hickey: The first shot of the second two seemed as if it missed because the hair on the right side of his head flew forward and there didn't seem to be any impact against his head

Hickey's statements on Nov 22 & Nov 30 are interesting and well worth studying:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh18/html/WH_Vol18_0390a.htm

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh18/html/WH_Vol18_0388b.htm

6 hours ago, Tony Krome said:

Brehm: [Regarding the final shot he heard]There was the hair, seemed to go flying [When Brehm states this, he waves his right hand forward from behind the right rear of his own head]

Brehm only heard 2 shots, which probably means, he, like others, heard the flurry as one shot.

In Brehm's TV interview on the day he only mentioned two shots (6 mins into video), but he mentioned a third via a telephone interview (7 mins into video):

Two days later he gave a full statement where he mentioned a third shot after the head shot, and said that the shots were spaced out enough for a bolt action gun to have fired them all:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh22/html/WH_Vol22_0434a.htm

The clearest explanation came later in 1986 when he expanded on his 1963 statement (about a minute into the video):

As you say, if there were two shots near Z313 he probably merged the pair together.  Of course other researchers say there was only one shot, so those witnesses who heard two in rapid succession merely heard echoes or reverberations.

6 hours ago, Tony Krome said:

My take on this, is that Hickey and Brehm saw the very same thing, and that the first flurry shot moved through the right side of JFK's hair. An instant later, the second flurry shot impacted his head.

Interestingly, both Brehm and Hickey have the hair flying forward, which is a quandary, for none of the SS agents reported the supersonic crack that a bullet makes before the shot sound.

My interpretation is that the hair moving statements relate to what we see in the Zapruder film at Z313 (I don't see hair moving before this), and the head impact relates to the back and to the left movement we see Z317-Z323 which is a short gap of just 0.25-0.5 of a second which the human eye should be able to detect as two different events.  Alternatively Josiah Thompson's theory is that JFK's head was struct around Z328-Z330 which is another candidate for JFK being struck by a bullet as he seems to slump forward at that time.  Both of these two shot theories indicate a gap of less than a second which is consistent with the witnesses referring to shots fired almost simultaneously.

It's very tricky to know for certain about whether each burst of noise had a single shot or double shots.  As I mentioned earlier the thread the massive Z-film jiggle at Z190-Z210 indicates one shot about two seconds before the victims react at Z225, and I don't think such grievous injuries would have a two second delay before the victims reacted.  Naturally some researchers tell me that the Z190-Z210 jiggle is a false alarm and not a shot, but the Phil Willis photo taken at Z202 proves it was a shot (he said the first shot was fired just before he took the photo).  If this if correct then two shots in two seconds must have been fired, indicating Oswald couldn't have fired both.

[Tony Krome]

4 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

Two days later he gave a full statement where he mentioned a third shot after the head shot

Brehm's 2nd shot "absolutely destroyed the President's head". Anything after that may well relate to extra shots heard by Jean Hill. and may not concern the sequence of shots related to JFK. If Brehm said the shots were evenly spaced, it follows he heard the flurry as one shot, and then you would have to add many seconds to any 3rd shot. 

Brehm's 2nd shot is the same as Landis' 2nd shot;

Landis: "It was at this moment that I heard a second report and it appeared that the President's head split open with a muffled exploding sound."

They both heard the flurry as one shot

[Mark Tyler]

On 5/10/2021 at 10:37 PM, Tony Krome said:

Brehm's 2nd shot "absolutely destroyed the President's head". Anything after that may well relate to extra shots heard by Jean Hill. and may not concern the sequence of shots related to JFK. If Brehm said the shots were evenly spaced, it follows he heard the flurry as one shot, and then you would have to add many seconds to any 3rd shot. 

Brehm's 2nd shot is the same as Landis' 2nd shot;

Landis: "It was at this moment that I heard a second report and it appeared that the President's head split open with a muffled exploding sound."

They both heard the flurry as one shot

I agree with this logic Tony.  The way to resolve most of the witness contradictions is to understand that some witnesses missed the first burst of gunfire, and other witnesses missed the last burst.  Once that confusion gets cleared up it makes the witness statements much easier to understand.  The Zapruder film helpfully shows us when two of the bursts were fired as we see the victim reactions, but the final burst that Brehm and others mentioned was hidden by the chaotic nature of the Z-film after Z318.

The only remaining area of uncertainty is whether one or two shots were fired in each burst, and to get some objective proof of both shots (if that's what happened).  The closest I have managed so far is the jiggle at Z190-Z210 (possibly a missed shot), and then the victim reactions 2 seconds later at Z225 which must presumably have been a different gunman firing another shot.

[Eddy Bainbridge]

On 5/12/2021 at 8:35 PM, Mark Tyler said:

I agree with this logic Tony.  The way to resolve most of the witness contradictions is to understand that some witnesses missed the first burst of gunfire, and other witnesses missed the last burst.  Once that confusion gets cleared up it makes the witness statements much easier to understand.  The Zapruder film helpfully shows us when two of the bursts were fired as we see the victim reactions, but the final burst that Brehm and others mentioned was hidden by the chaotic nature of the Z-film after Z318.

The only remaining area of uncertainty is whether one or two shots were fired in each burst, and to get some objective proof of both shots (if that's what happened).  The closest I have managed so far is the jiggle at Z190-Z210 (possibly a missed shot), and then the victim reactions 2 seconds later at Z225 which must presumably have been a different gunman firing another shot.

Proof of two shots in the second burst comes from the Harper fragment.