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Cognitive Bias in the Formulation of Theories


W. Niederhut
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Matt,  I absolutely hold that up as an option,  just wrestling with a more detailed scenario for it myself.  We do know a couple of things that might support the idea of him being used to radicalize local protests and that such protests were being discussed inside the exile community. 

In the follow up to the Echeveria FBI investigation in Chicago, they did get some statements from local DRE members that a protest was being planned against Chicago during the visit.  The FBI did not pursue that or collect any details, just recorded it.

In Dallas we know there were Cuban exiles addressing meetings and speaking out bitterly about JFK, calling for something to be done when he came to Dallas.  The FBI recorded that and did not investigate it either.  Of course none of the local exiles wanted to elaborate on anything like that after the assassinations - and nobody pressed some who were reported, like the pair with the bumper sticker on their station wagon that said "kill Kennedy" ...

I'd really like to hear some discussion of that possibility - and the question would be how would that involve Oswald, what would his role be...and  what type of protest would have enough "fireworks" to fall under a False Flag scenario.  Perhaps he was to turn an exile protest as violent as possible and then "flee" persecution as an innocent victim in the process...that would certainly fit his "legend".

I think its really worth discussing, just have not been able to wrap my own head around a workable scenario of that sort but I'm certainly open to a dialog - it would be consistent, it would be an easier sell to Oswald and that actually might be a deal that could be pitched as a  way to bring him deeper into undercover work wile garnering him some fame and even glory inside Cuba.

 

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I could be wrong but doesn’t LHO have to do just two things to help in his framing?

- bring the Carcano to work that has a paper trail or give the rifle to someone who is part of the conspiracy 

- make sure he’s out of sight during the shooting 

Seems like if he was listening to a handler in NO, which seems obvious on its face to me, he would abide by these requests without pushback or questions.

Then when Truly and the DPD officer show up in the lunch room (and Truly tells him the president has been shot), it’s not hard to put two and two together considering the supposed company he had been keeping.
 

If I had nothing to say that would make a lick of sense to police and knew my gun was in the building, I’d get the hell outta there too. And I’d be even be more afraid of those who framed me so yes I’d get home fast to get a gun, ensuring the taxi stops before my house to see what’s up, and then skedaddle to… wherever LHO was heading.

Priscilla Johnson once claimed that LHO was perfectly capable of accomplishing the assassination on his own. OK if you buy that then you have to ask - wasn’t he also capable enough to have an escape plan in mind? Or use a weapon that could not be traced back to him? Or not carry the ID that ties you to the rifle you used to kill the president?

A deranged assassin probably would’ve stayed where he was and bunkered down well-armed, probably shooting others in the motorcade as well and ready to die by cop.

A clever assassin would’ve had a game plan after pulling it off. LHO didn’t act like a guy on a suicide mission following the crime. He acted like a guy with no clue what to do next and running scared.

Edited by Michaleen Kilroy
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23 minutes ago, Michaleen Kilroy said:

I could be wrong but doesn’t LHO have to do just two things to help in his framing?

- bring the Carcano to work that has a paper trail or give the rifle to someone who is part of the conspiracy 

- make sure he’s out of sight during the shooting 

It sure seems that way. In fact isn't that pretty much the entirety of the evidence? Everything else is pretty suspect; the ballistics are shabby, etc.

I remember John McAdams once replied to me in a thread saying he believed Oswald used the iron sights to shoot JFK. I found that ridiculous because the Z313 shot is one of incredible accuracy; accuracy to the right side of JFK's head that was absolutely necessary when Jackie had her face inches away from the left side of his skull. In a moving limo. C'mon

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1 hour ago, Larry Hancock said:

So Ben,  if I understand it, in that view Oswald was made an offer by somebody he trusts inside the agency to join in a False Flag attack,  shoot at the president,  not hit him, and then be taken away to go into seclusion with a ton of money in the bank and just enjoy the next few decades living a great life without working.  Certainly he would have to buy into being a total recluse to protect himself and the Agency as part of such an agreement - or is there something else that would come into play afterwards? 

He brings in his own weapon, knowing that he will be the symbol of the attack, it will all point towards Cuba and in retribution JFK will be forced to take some strong action against the threat Cuba represents - perhaps not invasion if Oswald was just a lone nut and only influenced by Castro.  Or was he supposed to be part of a Castro hit team in which case a military response would be fully justified?

So Oswald is totally duped, guilty of shooting but not trying to kill JFK and after being taken into custody and charged with murder - certainly knowing he is going down because of what he left in the TSBD -  he stays calm, plays ball, and accepts what's coming for him probably due to what - fear of being assassinated if he talked.  But of course that didn't work out for him, he would have to at least consider he was too great a risk to the Agency to let live anyway?  

Just interested in seeing a fleshed out version of the False Flag/Oswald totally involved scenario that you are thinking about...its an option that has always intrigued me.

 

 

Larry--

My LHO scenarios always sound silly when re-phrased by someone smart and sensible, which you are. :)

1. Not sure whether LHO stayed calm after being arrested. By most accounts he drew a weapon upon arresting Texas Theater officers, even though outnumbered with no chance of escape. In my native Los Angeles, that would be suicide. That the Dallas Police Department arrested him alive is still remarkable. 

2. After arrest, perhaps LHO is playing for time, not confessing, but seeing if the next shoe will drop. He really doesn't have any options except to wait, and then speak through a lawyer, who would deliver secretly a message to his handlers seeking instructions, but unless they can fix matters, LHO will come clean. Evidently, LHO did try to call a "cut out" in Raleigh, although that is sketchy. James Leavelle indicated LHO did not indicate he himself feared being shot.  We do not know LHO's true inner turmoils, before or after being arrested, if any. 

3. As stated, perhaps the LHO handlers indicated to LHO that they had waiting a dead body, an "Alek Hiddel" and the Mannlicher-Carcano would be traced back to the fictitious Hiddel, who would be found a couple days later (Nov. 24) dead from suicide. Surely, the CIA can manufacture scenarios for public consumption, that is what they do. I do not know who was LHO's handler or contact. Could even be talking to Clay Shaw through untraceable telephone-booth conversations.  

The key is, LHO wanted to believe the fake false-flag JFKA plan would work, as his options in life otherwise were somewhat grim (from the perspective of a 24-year-old with no education and a dishonorable discharge, and a record of being in USSR as a commie lover, but living in Cold War USA, and whose wife is leaving due in part to money problems). LHO's only prospects for better things in life involved working with US intel. Really, what were his options?  

4. The problem on Nov. 22 emerged when LHO heard additional gunshots (not his own) during the JFKA, and figured out something had gone wrong, and he had participated in it. Or...there was supposed to be a ride for LHO, but the ride did not show up. In either case, LHO then bolted. 

......

The fake false-flag JFKA makes sense from the viewpoint of the CIA and military intel. Would sensible person participate in such a plan? No. 

But we are positing some individuals from the CIA and CIA assets participated in a real JFKA. Would a sensible person participate in a real JFKA?  Of course not. It is too horrible to even contemplate, on multiple levels, from humane, to ethical, to moral, to the principles of democracy, etc. But people did it anyway. 

Whatever the true explanation of the JFKA, it is laced with insane actions. Maybe LHO was duped, so to speak, or maybe plans went awry, and he was hung out to dry.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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If Oswald participated in the event, yet wasn't guilty of killing the President, I feel like he would behave exactly as he did while in custody: Claiming innocence while refusing to cooperate, since there were still major problems with his behavior that day. Guilty of one thing but not the other thing. A no-win situation.

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Ben, I'd say that pretty well defines a basic False Flag pitch which literally entraps Lee Oswald - with him accepting because he is frustrated, financially desperate,  no prospects, has a strong "will to believe" and for that matter an acceptance of leaving  not just Marina but his two  young daughters behind pretty much forever. Plus leaving them with the legacy of Dad being either some sort of nut or part of a Commie conspiracy - both of which failed since JFK is not supposed to be killed.  Or was he sucked in far enough to shoot to hit?

That sort of attitude/motive would explain, his using his own gun, his firing the shots.  Of course if he was totally willing to participate in a false flag operation pointing at Cuba  he could have done a more to sell it - like leave a note taking the blame and saying he was working for the revolution, motivated by a Castro speech or even by Cuban propaganda. In SWHT I lay out about a few things he could have done to really point the attack towards Castro if he had been a willing participant, but which he did not do.  But that may be too complex, perhaps the deal was just bring your gun and fire some shots and we will get you out and make it worth the risk

I wonder if anyone else has another version of how a false flag with a cooperative Oswald would have worked?

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Larry Hancock said:

Ben, I'd say that pretty well defines a basic False Flag pitch which literally entraps Lee Oswald - with him accepting because he is frustrated, financially desperate,  no prospects, has a strong "will to believe" and for that matter an acceptance of leaving  not just Marina but his two  young daughters behind pretty much forever. Plus leaving them with the legacy of Dad being either some sort of nut or part of a Commie conspiracy - both of which failed since JFK is not supposed to be killed.  Or was he sucked in far enough to shoot to hit?

That sort of attitude/motive would explain, his using his own gun, his firing the shots.  Of course if he was totally willing to participate in a false flag operation pointing at Cuba  he could have done a more to sell it - like leave a note taking the blame and saying he was working for the revolution, motivated by a Castro speech or even by Cuban propaganda. In SWHT I lay out about a few things he could have done to really point the attack towards Castro if he had been a willing participant, but which he did not do.  But that may be too complex, perhaps the deal was just bring your gun and fire some shots and we will get you out and make it worth the risk

I wonder if anyone else has another version of how a false flag with a cooperative Oswald would have worked?

 

 

 

Maybe a couple of thoughts at least.  First regarding Michaels thoughts, between Stan Dane and others in the UK I don't believe there was a lunch room encounter after all.  Then if we believe "Fritz" (Hostys) notes Oswald said he was out front with Shelly. 

What if his role was to turn off the electricity, guard the freight elevator and back door.  To keep him out of site while the assassination happened, and from realizing initially that it really happened.  I've long wondered if he even knew about the rifle, if it might have been brought in the night before and hidden by others.

He still would have realized when he heard JFK had actually been shot that he had been betrayed and would be a suspect, to possibly be eliminated.  So he made a beeline to the Texas Theater with half of a dollar bill.

Out of the box?   

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1 hour ago, Larry Hancock said:

Ben, I'd say that pretty well defines a basic False Flag pitch which literally entraps Lee Oswald - with him accepting because he is frustrated, financially desperate,  no prospects, has a strong "will to believe" and for that matter an acceptance of leaving  not just Marina but his two  young daughters behind pretty much forever. Plus leaving them with the legacy of Dad being either some sort of nut or part of a Commie conspiracy - both of which failed since JFK is not supposed to be killed.  Or was he sucked in far enough to shoot to hit?

That sort of attitude/motive would explain, his using his own gun, his firing the shots.  Of course if he was totally willing to participate in a false flag operation pointing at Cuba  he could have done a more to sell it - like leave a note taking the blame and saying he was working for the revolution, motivated by a Castro speech or even by Cuban propaganda. In SWHT I lay out about a few things he could have done to really point the attack towards Castro if he had been a willing participant, but which he did not do.  But that may be too complex, perhaps the deal was just bring your gun and fire some shots and we will get you out and make it worth the risk

I wonder if anyone else has another version of how a false flag with a cooperative Oswald would have worked?

 

 

 

Larry--

1. Well, there is the option that LHO was sold on the idea that the JFKA fake attempt would be pinned on "Alek Hiddel," who had ordered the rifle. As I said, a body would be found, dead by suicide, with paper records indicating it was a true Alek Hiddel. Ergo, then LHO would not be subject to lifelong manhunts. 

David Josephs presents reasonable evidence a lot of paperwork was faked anyway. So the CIA gins up a paper back history on an Alek Hiddel, pre-JFKA.

2. You ask sensible questions on how to inveigle LHO into any plot regarding the JFKA. A fugitive life beckons thereafter at best, unless superior counter-measures are taken, pre-JFKA.

But by the same token, you are positing that several people participated in a real JFKA, with the same or worse risks. An intense investigation post-JFKA can be assumed, possible discovery, and then lifelong oblivion, either in a jail or on the run. 

How were the actual participants in the real JFKA reassured they "would get away with it"? 

My guess is the actual participants were told, "We have a fall guy, a patsy."  Then could that same enticement have been used to lure in LHO? He was told the patsy would be "Alek Hiddel?" 

Edited by Benjamin Cole
typo
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5 hours ago, Matt Allison said:

Good stuff.

I'll add that if you're going to have a patsy, that patsy can't have an alibi that could exonerate him. That would not be a negotiable risk. So that must be reconciled.

I never thought about this before, but if we all conclude LHO was a patsy, witting or otherwise, that means others conducted a real JFKA and took enormous risks. 

Larry Hancock has posited the real JFKA assassins did not even care if people knew about multiple shots from different directions, or fired too quickly---they wanted to start a US war or serious action on Cuba. 

OK, then what assurance would the real assassins have they would "get away with it" and not be hunted down for the rest of their days? Does this indicate the true assassins were foreign mercenaries quickly airlifted offshore to never be seen again (echoes of Prouty).  

Or the Miami team was "true believers" and willing to die for a cause? 

Were the true assassins confident the "World War III virus" would kill any real investigation? That means they were clued into CIA HQ in some way. 

But if the real assassins could be assured no real investigation would take place, why could not that same courtesy be extended to LHO? 

The jigsaw puzzle does not fit together....

 

 

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Good point, Ben. I think my assumption on this was always that if the heat got too strong, and LHO's links were exposed, the exiles would be the ones to take the fall next. The JMWAVE characters would claim they had either had no connection to them or had "cut off ties with them because they were uncontrollable."

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33 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

Good point, Ben. I think my assumption on this was always that if the heat got too strong, and LHO's links were exposed, the exiles would be the ones to take the fall next. The JMWAVE characters would claim they had either had no connection to them or had "cut off ties with them because they were uncontrollable."

That seems like the plan...though I suspect there was no way the federal government could ever reveal CIA assets, even former and disavowed assets, perpetrated the JFKA.  Hence, as we know, the WC. 

And from the get-go, Blakey's HSCA agreed the CIA had nothing to do with the JFKA. I suspect that was a condition of Blakey's employment. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Benjamin Cole said:

That seems like the plan...though I suspect there was no way the federal government could ever reveal CIA assets, even former and disavowed assets, perpetrated the JFKA.  Hence, as we know, the WC. 

And from the get-go, Blakey's HSCA agreed the CIA had nothing to do with the JFKA. I suspect that was a condition of Blakey's employment. 

Yes, one that he later on greatly regretted.

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If Oswald was intended to be the single most important element in this professional false flag operation, why was he not in position at the time Kennedy's motorcade was scheduled to pass by?

Addendum: Would a shooter who was not just a key element in the entire scheme, but THE single most important element, not only be in position at the time Kennedy's motorcade was scheduled to pass, but wouldn't the shooter's readiness have also been confirmed by someone else in the operation?

Edited by Denny Zartman
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