Bill Fite Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 hour ago, Douglas Caddy said: Model shows Kamala winning every swing state Thanks Douglas I tracked down the Forbes article on this - very interesting reading about how the model works. Basically, it takes the bets on Predictit.org as a better estimate for who is going to win - not the who will you vote for question polls ask - then seems to use that data to predict the outcomes in states & EC votes. The contract price for a Dem win is currently 59¢ which translates to a whopping 59% of the popular vote for the Data Scientist at Northwestern Univ. His site -> https://virtualtout.com has the best explanation of his model for those interested. Currently, he predicts a these numbers for the EC vote count. It's an interesting and short (<5 mins) read. September 17: Harris/Walz (438), Trump/Vance (100) and here's the betting site the predictions are based on: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 I'd prefer that the polls remain tight right up until election day; it takes a fair amount of motivation to get young people to the polls, and a tight race helps with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 As it's obvious Trump's chances of winning are sliding towards zero, I will be shocked if we don't see an act of terrorism on U.S. soil in the next 40-some days. Trump's foreign backers know such an event could then be blamed on terrorists coming through the southern border, and they believe that will give his campaign the necessary boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 hour ago, Bill Fite said: I tracked down the Forbes article on this - very interesting reading about how the model works. It's from data scientist Thomas Miller, who works out of Northwestern University, just north of the city here, in Evanston, IL. Great city. Anyway, here is his personal site which gives updates on his model: https://virtualtout.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 The lowdown on Leonard Leo https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/opinion/leonard-leo-fundraising-supreme-court-irs.html?smid=url-share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 2 hours ago, Bill Fite said: Thanks Douglas I tracked down the Forbes article on this - very interesting reading about how the model works. Basically, it takes the bets on Predictit.org as a better estimate for who is going to win - not the who will you vote for question polls ask - then seems to use that data to predict the outcomes in states & EC votes. The contract price for a Dem win is currently 59¢ which translates to a whopping 59% of the popular vote for the Data Scientist at Northwestern Univ. His site -> https://virtualtout.com has the best explanation of his model for those interested. Currently, he predicts a these numbers for the EC vote count. It's an interesting and short (<5 mins) read. September 17: Harris/Walz (438), Trump/Vance (100) and here's the betting site the predictions are based on: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election Bill: Glad to learn about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 - Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AR) - "The Fed’s drastic rate cut is shamelessly political. Our nation’s central bank has no business moving rates this close to an election and is clearly trying to tip the balance in favor of Kamala Harris." Ummm... Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is a Republican who was appointed by Trump in 2018. He knows all that stuff. He needs to go back to proving how much he supports the military and military families by holding up hundreds of promotions. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Bulman Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 37 minutes ago, Matt Allison said: This should go over like a lead balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Bulman Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 Producers had to heavily edit The Apprentice to stop Trump from looking like a ‘complete moron’, authors claim (msn.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Bulman Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 (edited) 11 hours ago, Ron Bulman said: Producers had to heavily edit The Apprentice to stop Trump from looking like a ‘complete moron’, authors claim (msn.com) I'd never heard of the book this article comes from. Sounds very interesting. Pulitzer Prize winning authors is noted. Amazon.com: Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father's Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success: 9780593298640: Buettner, Russ, Craig, Susanne: Books Edited September 19 by Ron Bulman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 1 hour ago, Ron Bulman said: This should go over like a lead balloon. Yep. Exactly. It's instructive though, watching these insane things Trump and Vance are doing with this particular fable, as it demonstrates how desperate they are to attach a crisis, ANY crisis, to people that are immigrants. They don't care about the truthfulness of it because they're basing their entire run for the White House on the subject of immigration. They want something bad to happen that they can associate with immigrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Gallaway Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 Government watchdogs are investigating Biden's weapons transfers to Israel after federal worker complaints, The Post has learned Inspectors general with jurisdiction over the State Department and Pentagon are preparing to publish the results of multiple investigations scrutinizing the Biden administration’s provision of U.S. weapons to Israel for its military campaign in Gaza, and “several” related inquiries are either underway or planned, their offices told The Washington Post. The forthcoming reports follow complaints from government employees who contend the export of billions of dollars in arms has violated U.S. and international law and received far too little oversight from watchdogs. **** I think this will end up being Biden's greatest failure. In fairness, his only excuse is that there little resistance in Congress and IMO, the images of suffering and death in Gaza just became commonplace to the American public, and they reached their limit in empathy,which I think is unconscionable. Biden would have to stepped up as a leader and try to mobilize the public conscience but we can see now that was never something he was cut out to do. So we're left with a lot of whining and complaining and eventually giving into top dog Netanyahu, and now it appears he is giving in more and supplying Netanyahu more than we realized. Unfortunately as long as the public mood is the same, I don't see any difference from Harris. ****** The inspectors general offices disclosed to The Post their plans to publish these reports while also acknowledging receipt of a letter from dozens of federal employees spanning more than 30 agencies who accused the watchdogs of failing to conduct proper oversight of Washington’s arms policy. The employee coalition, Feds United for Peace, said it was aware that the inspectors general had received information from government whistleblowers indicating U.S. officials “are knowingly violating domestic and international law, as well as Administration policies and procedures, in order to continue providing U.S. weapons to Israel for its war on Gaza,” according to a copy of the undated letter obtained by The Post. **** The United States has delivered more than 50,000 tons of missiles, bombs, artillery and other military equipment to Israel since Oct. 7, Israel’s Defense Ministry said last month. In late June, U.S. officials told The Post that Washington had transferred at least 14,000 of the highly devastating MK-84 2,000-pound bombs and 6,500 500-pound bombs. A month earlier, Biden decided to pause one shipment of 2,000- and 500-pound bombs — less than 1 percent of the weapons sent to Israel since the war began. The administration has since resumed shipment of 500-pound bombs. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/09/18/us-weapons-israel-inspectors-general/?location=alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-will-visit-springfield-ohio-two-weeks-rcna171758 “Former President Donald Trump said at a rally Wednesday that he would travel to Springfield, Ohio, the focal point of unsubstantiated claims targeting Haitian migrants, "in the next two weeks." "I’m going to go there in the next two weeks. I’m going to Springfield, and I’m going to Aurora" in Colorado, Trump said at a rally in Uniondale, New York. "You may never see me again, but that’s OK. Got to do what I got to do," Trump added. "'Whatever happened to Trump?' 'Well, he never got out of Springfield.'" Well, you know what those Haitians are like. As long as Donald doesn't use the litter box that are in one of the schools, he should be alright. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 There's now a website for the poor souls that would buy this. LeavingMAGA.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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