Fake Assassination and the minimal effort theory

[Guest Eugene B. Connolly]

Surely if one wants to fake an assassination attempt then

all that is required is for someone

to loose off a few shots into the air.

No intricate convoluted planning

is needed.

In a fake assassination attempt no one has to be shot.

What other instances of fake presidential assassination

attempts are there on record?

EBC

[Tim Gratz]

Not quite sure of your point here, Eugene.

Oswald could have been told by a real (or pretend) intelligence officer that there was to be a fake assassination attempt (for whatever reason he might have been told); that it was so secretive he should not tell his regular handler; and that his only job was to smuggle the rifle into the TSBD. That is fairly simple, is it not? This is assuming there was never an actual fake plot but it was only a ruse to draw Oswald in as the patsy.

If the fake plot was for real and was hijacked, the fakers presumably wanted to link Oswald to Castro and to tie the plot to Cuba. Oswald might even have been told he was to be the designated patsy. He would be told he would one day be a hero.

Either scenario does not seem complicated to me.

[Mark Stapleton]

Surely if one wants to fake an assassination attempt then

all that is required is for someone

to loose off a few shots into the air.

No intricate convoluted planning

is needed.

In a fake assassination attempt no one has to be shot.

What other instances of fake presidential assassination

attempts are there on record?

EBC

Eugene,

If you consider the fake assassination attempt hypothesis, it's not really a fake. There never was a fake--it was just an artifice used by the conspirators to entice others to assist them in some of the preparations, while not being aware of the full consequences of their participation. It's just speculation of course, but it's not impossible. (So presumably even Sherlock Holmes wouldn't dismiss it.)

[Tim Carroll]

Surely if one wants to fake an assassination attempt then all that is required is for someone to loose off a few shots into the air.

No intricate convoluted planning is needed. In a fake assassination attempt no one has to be shot. What other instances of fake presidential assassination attempts are there on record?

Firing a "few shots into the air" wouldn't be convincing. However, if Oswald were the only shooter, then there would be the question of how he could have missed so wildly as to hit the curb next to Tague. Getting the ballistics evidence into the car would be necessary. Historically, the attempt against FDR which resulted in the death of Anton Cermak would be a prototype of a fake Dallas plan, regardless of what Cermak's shooter actually intended.

Oswald could have been told by a real (or pretend) intelligence officer that there was to be a fake assassination attempt (for whatever reason he might have been told); that it was so secretive he should not tell his regular handler; and that his only job was to smuggle the rifle into the TSBD. That is fairly simple, is it not? This is assuming there was never an actual fake plot but it was only a ruse to draw Oswald in as the patsy. If the fake plot was for real and was hijacked, the fakers presumably wanted to link Oswald to Castro and to tie the plot to Cuba. Oswald might even have been told he was to be the designated patsy. He would be told he would one day be a hero.

An agent who is told that something is "so secretive he should not tell his regular handler" has been shown not to work. The Watergate story demonstrates that by using CIA assets, the burglars' handlers at the agency were reporting everything the White House was planning and doing. If Oswald's handler in Dallas was also being manipulated (Hosty, Phillips,...), the strange directions to stay by the lunchroom phone during a presidential motorcade make more sense.

Having Oswald distibute pro-Castro leaflets that were printed in Banister's building, having him make a supposed attempt against General Walker (how did Walker know it was Oswald's so soon after the JFK assassination?), and generally assigning Oswald to perform actions to would make him appear pro-Castro would make the case that the rifle led to Oswald and that Oswald's involvement implicated Castro. The concept of a fake assassination attempt still has many variations. Oswald could have been the only person believing the fake plot" story. More than just leaving the rifle in place, some people have taken notice of Oswald's personal animosity toward Connally over the military discharge issue, and so they postulate that Oswald deliberately shot Connally. I have dismissed this personal motive on the grounds that LBJ and Connally tried too hard to keep it from being Connally in the limo; it was supposed to be George H. W. Bush's 1964 Senatorial opponent, hated by both LBJ and Connally, Ralph Yarbrough riding with Kennedy in the limo.

If you consider the fake assassination attempt hypothesis, it's not really a fake. There never was a fake--it was just an artifice used by the conspirators to entice others to assist them in some of the preparations, while not being aware of the full consequences of their participation. It's just speculation of course, but it's not impossible. (So presumably even Sherlock Holmes wouldn't dismiss it.)

This is an important point: people who argue that conspiracy theorists include too large a cast of characters are correct. But many individuals and instutional entities were either implicated in such a manner as to cover-up for contrived reasons, or to actually participate in some misrepresented operation. Some have discussed a fake attempt as intending to convince JFK to be more compliant with his security people. Not that I believe that, but it does serve as an example of what the Secret Service might have told. There certainly was some security-stripping that day and the last minute change of motorcade sequence and follow-up car occupants implies that something was up. H. L. Hunt worried that the fake attempt would be used to discredit the ultra-right in Dallas and ensure JFK's reelection, but examining Oswald's movements and associations makes it pretty clear that the intent was to have an incident which could be blamed on Castro.

Tim