Paul Baker
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Posts posted by Paul Baker
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54 minutes ago, Chris Barnard said:
Or just hate Posner. 🙂
Apologies, I didn't realise this was purely about discrediting Posner, as if that somehow augments any notion of a conspiracy. Another logical fallacy. Proper debate shouldn't stray into the land of puerile ad hominem attacks. A very common scenario in this forum of 'debate'.
54 minutes ago, Chris Barnard said:What would you estimate the public percentage in America that believe it was a conspiracy is? Which variables would take precedent in collating that data?
When anyone creates a poll, in which the question is along the lines of 'Do you believe that the assassination of JFK was the result of a conspiracy?', there is a single variable with three possible values: Yes, No, Not sure. Fairly basic. Most people, I believe, don't know enough about the subject matter to form a considered opinion. So what's the point?
54 minutes ago, Chris Barnard said:Do you think people here who believe a conspiracy took place are deluded?
Yes, I do. That's my opinion. Because I don't believe there was one. The fact that there is absolutely no hard, reliable evidence to suggest, let alone prove, that there was a conspiracy cements that opinion. But I'm open minded and I don't care. In fact, if anyone could prove there was a conspiracy, I'd find that genuinely fascinating.
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To place any significance on the result of any such poll represents a fundamental logical fallacy. This poll, like any other, proves approximately nothing. If you asked any one person of that 80% why they believe there was a conspiracy, in all likelihood you'll get the answer: 'Because there just had to be', or 'Have you seen JFK?', or both.
A preponderance of conspiracy-oriented thinking, literature and media will guarantee similar results for years to come. Of course, it won't stop these polls being held, and it won't stop most conspiracy theorists quoting their results in the mistaken belief that they prove something.
This madness will never end!
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3 hours ago, Cliff Varnell said:
The Lone Nut is a cult. It requires a true belief impervious to obvious fact.
😂
Nothing changes here, does it?
If you find the obvious is still just out of reach, visit John McAdams' website, or read JFK Assassination Logic. It's one of the very few JFK assassination books that makes sense.
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On 4/17/2021 at 3:52 PM, Joe Bauer said:
Is this debate one we can be linked to? If so, can you provide this?
Here's a link to the debate on David Von Pein's JFK Archives website. This includes links to DVP's own opinions about the debate, which are well worth a read after you've listened.
http://jfk-archives.blogspot.com/2010/10/radio-debates-featuring-john-mcadams.html
It's a little cringeworthy at times, but McAdams' responses are sensible and robust.
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A bastion of common sense. RIP.
I still like to listen to his debate with Jim DiEugenio on Black Op Radio.
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5 hours ago, Bart Kamp said:
In the picture above Oswald is seen drinking his coke which he got for his lunch
With a little bit of imagination, you can see almost anything in this picture. I've highlighted Hitler. Plain as day. He's saluting The Pope, I think.
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11 hours ago, Denny Zartman said:
LN's: The conspiracy theorists aren't moving the needle of history one iota!
Jim Hargrove: We don't need to. The majority of people already believe there was a conspiracy, and always have since 1963.
LN's: The number of Americans who think there was a conspiracy is completely, utterly irrelevant!
lol.
When you've stopped lolling, could you explain to me why you consider the fact that 'most people believe there was a conspiracy' is relevant? It doesn't add any weight at all to the largely vacuous arguments posited by many conspiracy theorists. Indeed, if you ask one of these people whether or not there was a conspiracy, the conversation would typically go like this:
'Do you think there was a conspiracy to kill JFK?'
'Of course there was.'
'Why do you think that?'
'Well, it's obvious isn't it?'
'Why is it obvious?'
'It just is.'
I've had many such conversations (that die fairly quickly). Anytime anything big happens, it's impossible for there to be a simple, straightforward answer. Most people's initial reaction to the news of JFK's death was in all likelihood to jump to the 'obvious' conclusion that the crime was an organised conspiracy. It's instinctive, right? 'They're going to kill us all!'
The JFK assassination is only an obvious conspiracy to the uninformed.
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10 hours ago, Jim Hargrove said:
To understand Mr. Payette's "needle of history" .... See what Americans have thought about the Kennedy Assassination for the last half century....
Now let's see a graph of 'The proportion of Americans who know enough about the JFK assassination to form a considered opinion'.
The number of Americans who think there was a conspiracy is completely, utterly irrelevant.
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22 hours ago, Denny Zartman said:
The Warren Commission's explanation for the assassination isn't coherent because the Commission could not determine Oswald's motive, nor would or could it demonstrate that he was mentally unbalanced.
Is motive and mental state required to prove that Oswald did it? I would have thought that it was sufficient that it was his gun, the same one he snuck into the TSBD that morning, that he was seen shooting at the President from the sixth floor of the TSBD, that he ran off in the wake of the assassination (that was the full extent of his escape plan, if indeed he had one. I'm not sure he expected he would escape), that he murdered a policeman shortly afterwards, etc ... etc ... etc ... etc ... etc ... etc ...
... It's all in the report.
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22 hours ago, Denny Zartman said:
Even Lyndon Johnson didn't believe it.
Why is that relevant? Even my mum thinks there was a conspiracy. I wonder what Donald Trump thinks.
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22 hours ago, Denny Zartman said:
Yes, there is credible physical evidence. It's the police dictabelt. It was so credible that the current official position of the United States government is that JFK was probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy.
The dictabelt 'evidence' has been thoroughly debunked. It came in at the eleventh hour of the HSCA proceedings, and was tenuous to say the least, and was the only justification for the 'probably assassinated as the result of a conspiracy' outcome. (Note: 'probably'). Credible? Far from it. In any case, no other actual physical evidence or reliable witness testimony supports the notion of another shooter.
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On 8/17/2019 at 7:29 PM, Denny Zartman said:
It always amazes me that any grown adult with even the most basic knowledge of the JFK assassination can conclude that Oswald acted alone, much less anyone who has studied the events in depth.
This amazes you? Considering that:
- There is no credible, physical evidence that connects any suspect other than Lee Harvey Oswald to the assassination of JFK.
- There is not a single viable, coherent explanation for the assassination other than that given by the Warren Commission.
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21 hours ago, James DiEugenio said:
LOL, 😃
ROTF as I endure spasms of uncontrollable laughter.😁
This accusation of bias comes from a scientist who will not even admit that the CBLA was smelly from the start.
By the way, from what I have been able to dig up, it was first originated in the JFK case. But the FBI did not think it was ready for prime time. Guinn perfected the hoax.
Baker, the scientist, cannot bring himself to admit that. VIncent Guinn made a lot of money covering up the facts in the JFK case.
I certainly can't compete with your level of scientific reasoning, Jim. I just hope I don't get so desperate that I resort to logical fallacy in an attempt to claw back at least some semblence of credibility.
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18 hours ago, Lance Payette said:
As I've said repeatedly, every conspiracy theory stumbles over (1) Lee Harvey Oswald, the actual man and his actual life, and (2) the actual events in Dealey Plaza. Every conspiracy theory is forced to posit a Lee Harvey Oswald who bears little if any resemblance to the actual LHO and a sequence of events in Dealey Plaza that bears little resemblance to the actual events. You can posit grand and even plausible-sounding theories involving hordes of Dark Forces until you are forced to deal with the actual Oswald and the actual events of Dealey Plaza.
How refreshing.
Of course, if a conspiracy theory stumbles over LHO (the actual man and his actual life), a duplicate can be spawned out of thin air, with his own duplicate rifle (because there were also two of those). Magic!
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I've never been a fan of censorship, but a few of the bugliosers here probably need to be filtered.
It's the most effective way of maintaining bias.
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7 hours ago, James DiEugenio said:
How you can work on a book for about 20 years, with two assistant writers, and not come up with anything new is amazing.
Nothing new was required to prove what amounts to an open-and-shut case. All of the salient facts were established many years before, in the aftermath of the assassination.
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16 hours ago, James DiEugenio said:
Paul Baker is the DVP from across the pond. Except in some respects he is even worse. He says he is a scientist yet he will not admit that the CBLA test has been completely vitiated and can never be used forensically again. He actually said he saw merits on both sides!!
That is not a reasonable comparison. I lack motivation when it comes to leading the blinkered into the land of the bleeding obvious.
NAA, CBLA? Let it go Jim. It's junk science anyway! Stay well within your comfort zone, in a world where gun shops don't sell individual bullets, there were no shots from the sixth floor, etc.
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4 hours ago, James DiEugenio said:
Does the Wiki entry include his stalking of his milkman because he thought the guy impregnated his wife and was the real father of his son? This was false and his wife thought he was sick and should go to a doctor. Bugliosi was forced to settle a lawsuit by the plaintiffs.
Does it include him impregnating his girlfriend and then giving her money for an abortion? When she did not get it, he went to her apartment and beat her up. He then tried to get her to lie about what happened in order to cover up what he had done. Is that there?
Is this part of your systematic, step-by-step demolition of Vincent Bugliosi's fraudulent defense of the Warren Commission? Typical DiEugenio fare.
When are you going to get your own wiki page, Jim? I'd love to make a contribution. I'll write the section on the debate you had with John McAdams.
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14 hours ago, W. Niederhut said:
Geez, Paul... You, obviously, haven't studied James DiEugenio's systematic, step-by-step demolition of Vincent Bugliosi's fraudulent defense of the Warren Commission.
I've read it. It is far from a systematic, step-by-step demolition. Mostly nit-picking and fallacious argument as far as I recall, whilst largely ignoring the pertinent evidence. Typical DiEugenio fare. Reading it makes you itch. Distil off the flimflam and you're left with nothing. He gets obsessed about Oswald not being able to post a mail order within a certain timeframe (as I recall). I remember the time that Jim reasoned on here that Oswald couldn't have done it because he only had four bullets, and gun shops don't sell bullets in that quantity. Jeez, it wouldn't take much of an attorney to undermine that particular argument, would it?
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On 8/2/2019 at 12:26 AM, David Von Pein said:
Just think "Mark Lane" and "Jim Garrison" and "Jim Fetzer", for starters. Three of the greatest bamboozlers of all-time.
For starters, sure.
Their combined contribution to a sensible, coherent and cohesive explanation for the events of 22 November 1963 that differs from 'The Bleeding Obvious' theory (as tend to call it) amounts to nothing. Absolutely nothing. Paradoxically, these people garner a great deal of respect in the conspiracy community. How come? 🤔
Vincent Bugliosi, as far as I can tell, and certainly with respect to the JFK assassination, allowed the facts to lead to an inescapable conclusion, much as the Warren Commission did. If you watch The Trial Of Lee Harvey Oswald, you can really appreciate this rather straightforward and common-sense technique. Gerry Spence, bereft of facts and hard physical evidence to support his stance, had no choice but to resort to conjecture, supposition and a warping of basic physical law to attempt to sway the jury. There, in a nutshell, is the difference between a 'lone nutter' and a conspiracy theorist.
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12 hours ago, James DiEugenio said:
And Baker, in the face of all this, still insists he is right and somehow CBLA is not junk science.
Jim, I'm not sure if you're aware, or if I've mentioned this before, but I've already read all of that, and understand it. Nevertheless (one last time), NAA/CBLA cannot be described as junk science, simply because you (and others) don't understand it. Furthermore, you know nothing about the scientific process. That is patently obvious. The key phrase is highlighted below.
"Although it has since been abandoned because the results of the technique have been wrongly interpreted in legal cases and have led to wrongful convictions."
What was this thread supposed to about again? Before Jim went off on his tangent about CBLA (that tends to happen on the rare occasions that I bother to post here).
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1 hour ago, Michael Clark said:
Comparative bullet-lead analysis (CBLA), also known as compositional bullet-lead analysis, is a now discredited and abandoned[1] forensic technique which used chemistry to link crime scene bullets to ones possessed by suspects on the theory that each batch of lead had a unique elemental makeup.[2]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_bullet-lead_analysis
as for NAA, we have the Supreme Court that says you are wrong, Paul
I've read all of that stuff, and more besides. That it is has been discredited is due to the interpretation of the results it provides, and has nothing to do with its inherent credibility. NAA is real. It is being used. It works. Jim DiEugenio, as usual, discards it as 'junk science', primarily because he doesn't understand it, just like he discards anything that doesn't fit in with his warped world view.
27 minutes ago, Cliff Varnell said:The NAA discussion is fake debate kept alive by cognitively impaired Lone Nutters and VichyCTs who can't absorb the fact that JFK was shot in the back at T3, rendering the whole phony "controversy" moot.
Yes, this is why I tend to avoid this forum these days. I'm cognitively impaired, am I? People like you worry me.
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6 hours ago, James DiEugenio said:
Baker, can you read?
I just said Single Bullet Fantasy. In reference to you!
You buy it because you have to. So who is living a fantasy?
And yes, unless you have new information that somehow CBLA is going to be used by the FBI again in court, its junk science.
Do you have such information that the FBI is going to do so? I doubt it. Know why? Because when Randich testified the last time, after he was done, the judge threatened to charge the FBI witness with perjury.
Since then, the FBI has not used it. They don't want to go to jail.
Again, if you have different info, please come up with it. If not, I will consider this more of the same from you: gaseous drivel.
Hello Jim,
I really can't abide your ranting, raving tone. You've demonstrated time and time again that you cannot be reasoned or argued with, even in the face of the bleeding obvious. Black Op Radio, John McAdams? Case closed.
You're not qualified to describe NAA and CBLA as 'junk science', because it isn't. I don't care that the FBI won't use it in court. It is a viable, proven analytical technique, and just because you - and others - are incapable of interpreting its results doesn't make it invalid.
Stick to what you know, not what you think you know, Jim. And please, please, please, don't reply. I can't tolerate any more of your nonsense, ever.
Paul.
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On 4/19/2019 at 2:05 AM, James DiEugenio said:
I am not a theorist.
OTOH, someone who buys the Single Bullet Fantasy, Brennan, and cannot decide if Randich and Grant showed that CBLA is a fraud--which even Blakey and the FBI have admitted--that person is living in a world of denial and junk science.
A fantasist then?
And that term 'junk science' ... again.
Gerald Posner ROASTED in JFK poll
in JFK Assassination Debate
Posted
Thank you, Chris, for your polite, measured response.
As I said, I believe I may have misinterpreted the intent of the original post here. I get irritated whenever someone implies that the result of yet another poll somehow lends weight to the idea that there was a conspiracy. It doesn't. That is a logical fallacy. Appeal to popularity (or whatever its Latin equivalent is).
Conspiracy thinking with respect to the JFK assassination (and in general), tends to focus on and exaggerate both real and perceived anomalies as if those undermine the wealth of reliable evidence that points to the lone shooter scenario. Oswald's whereabouts at the time of the shooting. If someone could conclusively demonstrate that he wasn't on the sixth floor while JFK was being murdered, that would tear the entire official story into tiny pieces, which is why conspiracy theorists would like to prove that. (Though that would simultaneously undermine any idea that Oswald was set up, since the conspirators would never allow him to be anywhere else when the shots were fired). But if Oswald was entirely innocent (as some believe), why did he abscond in the wake of the assassination and murder a policeman, and attempt to murder another, before being arrested? And why did he make an unscheduled visit to Irving the day before, where he kept his rifle? And what was in that package he took into work the following morning? It wasn't curtain rods, he didn't need them, and if he did, he'd have achieved the same result if he'd collected them during his normal Friday visit. Etc, etc...
The Zapruder film show us that Kennedy was shot from behind. Never mind the interpretation of the perceived back-and-to-the-left movement: Basic Newtonian physics coupled with a high contrast rendering of Z313 tells us that the shot that blew a hole in JFK's head came from behind. The vast majority of witnesses heard three shots. No other shooters were seen. Again, if the conspirators wanted to set up Oswald, they would have ensured that the shots did come from behind, rather than plant another shooter (or, as some seem to believe, other teams of shooters!) in Dealey Plaza and risk the entire plot being exposed. They also wouldn't have had to work out how to adjust the outcome of the autopsy. Isn't that latter idea ridiculous? You've got clever conspirators (clever, presumably, because they've managed to conceal the truth for nearly 60 years) who are also very, very stupid.
Because I'm interested in conspiracy theories and theorists generally. When say I don't care whether or not there was a conspiracy, perhaps that isn't entirely accurate. What I mean is that I could be persuaded either way. I believe there wasn't one, because that's where the reliable, credible evidence points. Unequivocally, in my opinion.