Public Policy Correlates of COVID-19 Death Rates in the U.S.

[W. Niederhut]

From Kevin Drum's blog this week...

What worked to stop the spread of COVID-19?

A recent paper by Christopher Ruhm of the University of Virginia quantifies the value of various efforts to combat COVID-19 in the US. The headline result is a composite score for different states based on what kinds of restrictions they imposed, but I found the detailed national breakdown more interesting. Here are his estimates of how various interventions affected death rates:

By comparing excess death rates in different states with different restrictions in place, Ruhm estimates how effective each one was. The results are pretty simple:

• Vaccines work great.
• Mask mandates work OK.
• Prohibitions on mask and vaccine mandates are terrible.

Nothing else has much impact. The effects are all fairly small and in many cases aren't even statistically significant. Restaurant closures are minimally effective, but probably not worth it (though it's almost certainly a good idea for wait staff to wear masks).

This is one study, and its results are hardly the last word. Still, it's striking that an awful lot of research has now been done and it mostly finds that hardly anything makes much of a difference. Masks help a little bit, but aside from that it's vaccines or nothing.

Note, however, that there are several interventions that weren't measured in this study: social distancing, better ventilation, UV light, and remote work. All of these are things that likely have some impact.

What worked to stop the spread of COVID-19? – Kevin Drum (jabberwocking.com)

Edited 2 hours ago by W. Niederhut