Gerry Simone

It's a mystery why nobody said they saw him out front. Is there any possibility that Oswald was out in front but sometime after the assassination, such that nobody made a fuss about it? IOW, not at 12:30 when the shots rang out but soon thereafter. Could Oswald have meant that "out with Bill Shelley", meant moments after the assassination? Didn't Oswald also bump into a news reporter who was looking for a phone, as he was leaving the TSBD? You'd think people would've seen him out front then. I don't know why nobody at the JFK Lancer NID Conference asked Frazier back in 2015 who Prayer-Man was. I didn't know about Prayer Man back then, otherwise I would've asked him.

Alistair, why would 5'-8" BL be 6" taller on the landing if PM could be a 5'-9" LHO on that landing too?

Hmmm. You make the DPD sound like a sordid, corrupt bunch (reminds me of a movie in which guests to a small town later find out that the charming locals are all devil worshipers). With the way Roger Craig was treated, maybe a few top cops were extremists. As for that twist of a phone conversation to make Michael Paine look like a plotter, I recall that my early foray in this forum was debating you on that. To me, from the evidence presented in Barry Krusch's, Impossible: The Case Against Lee Harvey Oswald, the phone bill presented in the WC exhibits was fudged and the original, unaltered record placed the call between Michael and Ruth Paine before Oswald's arrest. The conversation overheard by the operator and reported to the FBI seemed like they had foreknowledge. But that's the topic of another thread. As for the pointy bullet notion, that might have been insurance for the plotters that another bullet/gunman would be suspected, because they knew the MC would be found in the TSBD. Then again, it's possible the plotters' rep screwed up and put the wrong round (maybe from the Mauser ha ha). I think I read about that 7.62 mm round in one of the volumes by Barry Krusch, but I can't recall right now. I have the e-books and can do a search when I have time.

Hi Paul, I doubt that the DPD were interested in framing Oswald for the purpose of having the assassination blamed on the Soviets or Cubans. The DPD might have been pressured to find a scapegoat, especially after a cop was murdered. Recall that Frazier said that Fritz also accused him of assassinating the President, per his presentation at the JFK Lancer conference in 2015. However, the point I was trying to make, which might bolster your theory that the Lone Gunman scenario was concocted if not just implemented post-assassination by Hoover, was that the original or pointy bullet found on that stretcher was intended to be different than the kind fired from the Mannlicher-Carcano, being the WCC bullet later known as CE 399. In other words, maybe the bullet first seen at Parkland was supposed to be introduced as evidence for a different shooter, but Hoover et al could not allow this, otherwise they would be forced to admit that a second shooter using different ammo was involved, ergo conspiracy, and that meant a conspiracy probably involving Communists due to Oswald's incriminated profile. (The plotters might have done this because they didn't have a second patsy like Oswald). In the alternative, it's also possible that the pointy bullet was the wrong* one chosen by the plotters to make the case against Oswald a solid one, whether you assume a LG or Multi-Shooter scenario from the outset. * being another example of a bungled conspiracy P.S. I thought I read somewhere that an empty evidence envelope marked 7.62 mm round found on the roof of the TSBD building (or elsewhere) was later found in the archives many years later. Could this be obstruction of justice by Hoover and the boys to cover-up a multi-shooter scenario too, in favour of a lone gunman story line?

Technically-speaking, Occam's Razor is a heuristic tool for settling on an appropriate hypothesis between competing choices for a given prediction. Prayer Man vs. Someone Else involves two predictions or occurrences, so the debate doesn't fit the strict definition. However, you're still applying sound logic to eliminate one of the choices and I think that involves that Rule of Parsimony more so than OR. Not saying you're thinking is wrong. The loose or evolved definition of Occam's Razor is what you're referring to. (Sorry for my philosophical O.R. rant but I've seen it quoted too often to rationalize an argument as superior when it's not necessarily the case).

Unbelievable. (You did good research btw).

I was going to say the same thing about PM standing more towards the corner and in the shadows (attributable to your earlier explanation to me he he), but Andrej's post is still astounding. If PM was standing on the step, he's be out of the shadows or more so, no? (If only that was the case to help us positively I.D. him).

No problem Paul. I understand where you're coming from. Now that I'm thinking about the planted bullet at the hospital (which I previously stated was CE 399, which would mean advanced planning to frame Oswald), I realize that the original or actual bullet observed at Parkland Hospital was NOT CE 399. It morphed into that WCC bullet much later according to testimonies and interviews (evidence destroying the chain of possession). Maybe the original bullet (pointed) that was hastily planted, was meant to show that another gunman was involved, because it could not have matched the MC (incompatible with the expelled hulls on the 6th floor), but that perhaps Hoover's boys made the switch to an MC bullet to destroy the evidence for different ammo and another shooter? Hmmmmm.

Not sure if you're applying your definition of OR to your example for Prayer Man. I think what you're referring to, is the evolved version of OR, which is the Law of Parsimony. See => http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html => the law of parsimony, or the rule of simplicity. To begin with, we used Occam's razor to separate theories that would predict the same result for all experiments. Now we are trying to choose between theories that make different predictions. This is not what Occam intended. What OR should be => The most useful statement of the principle for scientists is "when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better." Example for OR: Prediction or result => The wounding of JFK & JBC Competing Hypotheses => SBT or Conspiracy Choice using OR => Conspiracy (or separate shooters) However, when explaining Prayer Man, I can't apply OR but I think I can use the Law of Parsimony: "The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations." "The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct." Example for Law of Parsimony or Rule of Simplicity: Phenomenon or Explanation 1. => Prayer Man is Lee Harvey Oswald. Assumption or explanation => A bunch of people are lying or equally coerced into silence forever, that only the photo blur makes him look bigger and shorter, that when he said he was out with Shelley at the front, it meant the same time as the extant films or photo, etc., etc. Phenomenon or Explanation 2. => Prayer Man is not Lee Harvey Oswald. Assumption or explanation => Nobody saw him there because he was elsewhere. Correct Answer under the LOP => Prayer Man is someone else other than LHO. P.S. I'm not arguing against Prayer Man above (I haven't ruled out PM as Oswald yet).

Hi Paul, I meant that Oswald was PURPORTED to be a Communist sympathizer that marched to the beat of his own drum, ergo the lone nut. They made him out to be a "wannabe" comrade of the Soviet Union, etc. etc. Therefore, and under this premise, the plotters did not want a confrontation with the Soviets per se, but merely a regime change and new U.S. foreign policy to their liking, which didn't preclude an invasion of or coup d'etat in Cuba.

Just as a lone wolf terrorist (not a member of ISIS but a fanatic that espouses extremist views). IOW, Oswald was a malcontent and Communist-sympathizer. However, I can't rule out that Oswald was framed as the fall guy for a multi-shooter conspiracy, that was not acknowledged or promoted by LBJ and Hoover, who forced a LN scenario.

I read Best Evidence in the early eighties. I think I bought the second edition too, years later. I remember watching Marina's Story aka Fatal Deception too. Robert Picardo (of ST Voyager fame) played David Lifton. Never forget the ending scene on the GK of him holding hands with Marina listening to a recording of JFK's Peace Speech at American University. I'm sure I have it on VHS somewhere.

That's how I understood that too, gentlemen.

Didn't Oswald fail at getting a VISA? Wasn't he outraged and made a scene? That wouldn't seem like he was working for the Soviets, but him simply being a Communist wannabe. This still reinforces the image of the lone nut malcontent. The Feds didn't believe it was Oswald and they didn't know for sure if it was the Soviets or Castro behind the shenanigans. https://www.history-matters.com/frameup.htm

Point 5 is a very plausible if not justifiable excuse, regardless of Texas State law. I posted a link to a letter or memo transcribing Hoover's phone call of November 24th at 4 pm about positing the LGT, which may be Wrone's source. Another gent posted that McBundy mentions it the day before. Cheers.

Exactly. (BTW, I liked the sequential photographic evidence in that ORJFK website. A researcher mentor of mine presented Willis Slide #5 at least 20 years ago, that JFK's shirt cuff was visible from the rear view).

They tried to make the LN scenario stick, but it wasn't quite a perfect fit.

I think Ron Ecker meant an ambush involving more than one shooter, but that they didn't have to be pro-Castro; only the hope or plan that Castro would be blamed in the aftermath. As for other shooters (and I'm sure you're aware of this), there's plenty of circumstantial evidence for multiple shooters from concealed or protected positions: a) at the GK as well as a fake SSA to shoo people and police away; b ) possibly from south knoll too a la Sherry Fiester; c) TSBD 6th floor (shooters at both ends were seen by witnesses and even the HSCA confirmed a movement of boxes in the SN when Oswald had supposedly left it but before the arrival of the police or Truly, indicating that others were there) d) Dal-Tex Building (trajectory of other bullet strikes) e) County Records Building (trajectory of other bullet strikes) Although I do concede that there could've been a plan for a lone nut from the outset, whether primary or as a contingency.

And I don't think that Mrs. Kennedy was in a position to get involved in an argument. And yes, after what happened, she probably wanted to get the hell out of "nut country" (No disrespect intended to any Texans. I have visited several times and love the hospitality and the people.).

I agree 100%, as too many assumptions or conditions are required. (BTW, Occams Razor is not a legal principle nor is it a substitute for evidence).

Oswald didn't have to know anything important with respect to the assassination per se (especially if he was a low-level agent and on a need-to-know basis), except that he could establish an alibi or provide a credible defense at trial. That was bad for the plotters. However on second thought, maybe you're right too since he seemed to be afraid for his life when he went home to change and get his hand gun.

You make a good case for a lone assassin patsy and pre-autopsy case Mr. Lifton (as well as remind us about a few key common sense points). Another problem with the multiple shooter angle is could an after-the-fact cover-up team come up with a CE 399 plant so early in the game (let alone last minute plans to conduct a pre-autopsy)? Also, if we are to believe that CIA assets also exist in the news media, they sure didn't help to promote or put out a multi-party conspiracy.

You could be right for the 1st point, but the MC incident could've PRIMARILY meant to show's Oswald's plan to get a VISA for his escape. But Oswald or his impostor was denied one and made a scene.. There were other "diplomats" there in MC too, and Kostikov was one of them. That doesn't make it a Russian plot. (Many diplomats were KGB or CIA). Just a case for an idealistic Commie-nut like Oswald who ostensibly was trying to appease Mother Russia like he tried to do when he defected to the USSR. As for the second point, I don't think it was a complex plan to snatch Kennedy's body either in Dallas or between Dallas/Andrews AF Base and Bethesda, due to the power of the new President, the Secret Service and the military, with plausibly good intentions.

Thank you, but I don't think this is a case about Occam's Razor since we aren't talking about two competing theories for the same explanation here (sometimes Occam's Razor is stated for the Rule of Parsimony as in the simplest explanation or solution to a problem is the correct one). Occam's Razor can be applied to the SBT (to me, it takes too any assumptions to make it viable such that the alternative explanation that CE 399 was likely a plant is more plausible).

Ha ha. Thank you for being so gracious in your time to respond so eloquently and with great detail. And injecting humor too.