Barack Obama or John McCain

[J. Raymond Carroll]

Many Undecideds in the SHOW ME state still undecided after the debate, according to one focus group

the group thought Obama "won" the debate (38 to 27%, with 36% saying that neither candidate walked away with a clear win). But that judgment didn't necessarily mean the Democrat won more support from the voters. At the beginning, they were all undecided; after the debate, half still weren't sure who'd they vote for and the remainder split evenly between the two candidates

http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/09...undecideds.html

It was interesting to hear John Grisham, author of A TIME TO KILL and THE INNOCENT MAN on TV before the debate. Grisham believes that RACISM is the hidden factor that makes the race so close. Given the disastrous presidency of George W. Bush, the democratic candidate SHOULD be leading by a clear 15 points in the polls, Grisham believes, and he also pointed out that in a number of Southern elections in recent years black candidates received far fewer votes than pre-election polling had predicted, suggesting that people with racist views often give misleading answers to opinion pollsters.

http://www.truveo.com/John-Grisham-preview...e/id/2492380534

Racism is the wild card that could send America hurtling backwards, and McCain appealed to that audience by treating his Senate colleague Obama with a measure of contempt throughout the debate -- he was unable to bring himself to address Obama directly when asked to by the moderator. He reminded me of the attitude of white South Africans back in the days of apartheid.

Edited September 27, 2008 by J. Raymond Carroll

[J. Raymond Carroll]

According to this survey of independent voters, Young Barry really kicked Old grump McCain's butt down at Ole Miss.

http://mediacurves.com/

[Mark Stapleton]

Racism is the wild card that could send America hurtling backwards, and McCain appealed to that audience by treating his Senate colleague Obama with a measure of contempt throughout the debate -- he was unable to bring himself to address Obama directly when asked to by the moderator. He reminded me of the attitude of white South Africans back in the days of apartheid.

Yes, I noticed this too. While Obama often turned to face McCain, the latter rarely reciprocated.

Also, McCain's tone was condescending, regularly implying that Obama 'didn't understand' or 'shows naivete'. It was quite a dismissive and insulting display from McCain, imo.

For me the most nauseating part was when McCain cited Reagan as some kind of role model for great Presidency. What an astonishingly inappropriate comment, holding up the pinup boy of Wall Street at the same time as Wall Street was in the process of bringing America to its knees.

McCain lavished praise on all the usual groups, appeared to defend the absurd orthodoxy of 'not speaking to our enemies' and made me sick with his teary-eyed declaration that he loves all veterans.

McCain was pathetic.

Edited September 27, 2008 by Mark Stapleton

[J. Raymond Carroll]

Conservatives consider gambling a character flaw, so gambling stories like this one are not exactly what the old grouch needs right now. People might get the impression that he has a reckless tendency to roll the dice.

For much of his adult life, Mr. McCain has gambled as often as once a month, friends and associates said, traveling to Las Vegas for weekend betting marathons. Former senior campaign officials said they worried about Mr. McCain’s patronage of casinos, given the power he wields over the industry. The officials, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/us/polit...ing-web.html?hp

[J. Raymond Carroll]

GERALD POSNER on MCCAIN's GAMBLING PROBLEM

some reporter should ask McCain, directly, if he has ever had a gambling debt that his wife had to pay off. American voters have a right to know.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gerald-posne...a_b_130277.html

[Len Colby]

If the most recent polls can be believed if the election were held now the election would go 348 - 190 in Obama's favor. A total of about 10 states with 126 electoral votes are considered too close to call but Obama only needs to win 20 to win if he carries all the states currently considered learning or solid in his favor. Currently he is leading in 7 of those states who total 99 electoral votes. I.E. he only need about 1/5 of the electoral votes of states where he is currently ahead by a slim margin

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...bama_vs_mccain/

[Len Colby]

The numbers have shifted even more in Obama’s favor. Real Clear Politics now shows him with states that total 259 electoral votes solid or learning for him, he needs 269 to win. Nine states totaling 116 electoral votes are considered toss ups. Obama has a narrow lead (0.3 – 4.6 %) in 7 of them totaling 94 electoral votes. He only needs to win any one of the four states where his lead is 2.0 – 4.6%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...bama_vs_mccain/

[John Simkin]

The numbers have shifted even more in Obama’s favor. Real Clear Politics now shows him with states that total 259 electoral votes solid or learning for him, he needs 269 to win. Nine states totaling 116 electoral votes are considered toss ups. Obama has a narrow lead (0.3 – 4.6 %) in 7 of them totaling 94 electoral votes. He only needs to win any one of the four states where his lead is 2.0 – 4.6%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...bama_vs_mccain/

It has been claimed that the result of these polls are unreliable. There is past evidence that white voters will lie about voting intentions when the candidate is black. They have a fear of being seen as a racist in a one-to-one interview but do not worry about this when they are voting in secret.

[Len Colby]

The numbers have shifted even more in Obama’s favor. Real Clear Politics now shows him with states that total 259 electoral votes solid or learning for him, he needs 269 to win. Nine states totaling 116 electoral votes are considered toss ups. Obama has a narrow lead (0.3 – 4.6 %) in 7 of them totaling 94 electoral votes. He only needs to win any one of the four states where his lead is 2.0 – 4.6%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...bama_vs_mccain/

It has been claimed that the result of these polls are unreliable. There is past evidence that white voters will lie about voting intentions when the candidate is black. They have a fear of being seen as a racist in a one-to-one interview but do not worry about this when they are voting in secret.

I’m cautiously optimistic. As I noted Obama only needs to win one of four of the states where his lead is 2 - 5% and the current trend is for his lead to grow. According to AP even some McCain and other GOP strategists/advisors are privately conceding things looks bleak for their candidate.

[…]

Several GOP strategists close to McCain's campaign privately fret that his chances for victory are starting to slip away.

These Republicans, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering the campaign, point to several factors: Obama's gains nationally and in traditionally GOP states, no McCain boost from the first debate, McCain's struggles with economic issues as the financial crisis has unfolded and deepening public skepticism about his running mate, Sarah Palin.

They said McCain's options for shaking up the race are essentially limited to game-changing performances in the final presidential debates or in Palin's vice presidential debate Thursday night with Joe Biden. Short of that, they said, McCain can do little but hope Obama stumbles or an outside event breaks the GOP nominee's way.

[…]

Obama's failure to achieve a double-digit lead and maintain it "has given a lot of hope to Republicans," GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. Yet he also allowed, "You can't have a playing field that leans this heavily toward the Democrats and not be nervous."

[…]

Outwardly, McCain's campaign expresses optimism, and aides say they expect the race to reset itself several more times.

But privately some advisers acknowledge the difficult seas he is trying to navigate as the economy dominates the race.

[…]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081002/ap_on_...esidential_race

[J. Raymond Carroll]

It has been claimed that the result of these polls are unreliable. There is past evidence that white voters will lie about voting intentions when the candidate is black. They have a fear of being seen as a racist in a one-to-one interview but do not worry about this when they are voting in secret.

Two white people I know have told me they will not vote for a black candidate, but since both live in New York State it is a safe bet that their votes will not influence the electoral college outcome.

But if McCain and Palin win this election, I fully expect that the world will interpret that result as nothing more than a reflection of the level of racism in American society, and America's politics will become an even greater object of world ridicule and resentment than it has been under Bush.

[J. Raymond Carroll]

Will he be remembered as Ole Snake-Eyes McCain?

Here's how Esther Dyson put it: "It's pretty clear that Biden spent decades getting ready for this debate, learning from experience; Palin spent a couple of weeks, learning from handlers and speech coaches."

Not only does she want more power for herself than the Constitution grants -- or than Cheney took for himself -- but she is so obviously not equipped to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, it takes your breath away that McCain picked her. He claims to be putting his country first, but the debate proved beyond any doubt that he has actually chosen to put his country on the betting line and roll the dice. And they've come up snake eyes.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huff...m_b_131489.html

[Len Colby]

RCP now shows Obama with a 5.8% lead and 264 electoral voted solid or leaning towards him. He only needs to win any one of the 8 states considered toss-ups. He is ahead in 6 of them by margins ranging from 0.5 - 4.4%. These numbers aren't based on single polls but rather the average of several.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...bama_vs_mccain/

CNN's Poll of Polls shows much the same thing Obama 6 points in front and with 250 electoral votes and 99 considered toss ups.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

If the result is a 269 - 269 tie the President would be chosen by the House which obviously would pick Obama.

[J. Raymond Carroll]

All the girls say John McCain is such a handsome devil. Surely it's time we had a song about him:

HANDSOME JOHNNY

(Lou Gossett / Richie Havens)

Hey, look yonder, tell me what's that you see

Marching to the fields of Concord?

It looks like Handsome Johnny with a musket in his hand,

Marching to the Concord war, hey marching to the Concord war.

Hey, look yonder, tell me what you see

Marching to the fields of Gettysburg?

It looks like Handsome Johnny with a flintlock in his hand,

Marching to the Gettysburg war, hey marching to the Gettysburg war.

Hey, look yonder, tell me what's that you see

Marching to the fields of Dunkirk?

It looks like Handsome Johnny with a carbine in his hand,

Marching to the Dunkirk war, hey marching to the Dunkirk war.

Hey, look yonder, tell me what you see

Marching to the fields of Korea?

It looks like Handsome Johnny with an M1 in his hand,

Marching to the Korean war, hey marching to the Korean war.

Hey, look yonder, tell me what you see

Marching to the fields of Vietnam?

It looks like Handsome Johnny with an M15,

Marching to the Vietnam war, hey marching to the Vietnam war.

Hey, look yonder, tell me what you see

Marching to the fields of Birmingham?

It looks like Handsome Johnny with his hand rolled in a fist,

Marching to the Birmingham war, hey marching to the Birmingham war.

Hey, it's a long hard road, it's a long hard road,

It's a long hard road, before we'll be free.

Hey, what's the use of singing this song, some of you are not even listening.

Tell me what it is we've got to do: wait for our fields to start glistening,

Wait for the bullets to start whistling.

Here comes a hydrogen bomb, here comes a guided missile,

Here comes a hydrogen bomb: I can almost hear its whistle.

[Ron Ecker]

The other night, NBC's multimillion-dollar news anchor man Brian Williams was on the Letterman show. He compared the debates between the young Obama and the old McCain with the Eisenhower-Kennedy debates. Does anyone remember those?

[John Simkin]

Last night the BBC broadcast a report by Greg Palast that featured Bobby Kennedy Jr. on how the Republicans stole the election in 2000 and 2004 and explained the different strategies that are being used to ensure McCain's victory in November. The report made the US look like a Banana Republic.