Taking seriously Oswald's front steps alibi claim

[Greg Doudna]

 

2 hours ago, David Von Pein said:

In Summary....

The sum total of all the evidence in both the JFK and Tippit murder cases most certainly indicates that Lee Oswald was (beyond reasonable doubt, IMO) guilty of shooting both of those men with his own guns.

An issue of evidence

Just to get this straight, you cite three reasons which "certainly", "beyond reasonable doubt" establish the sixth floor shooter was Oswald:

• more likely Oswald would shoot a rifle that belonged to him than someone else.
• Brennan.
• no positive evidence it was someone else.

Brennan, who was about the only positive identification claim of a witness that the sixth floor shooter was Oswald, saw the sixth floor shooter from Elm Street at street level. Brennan's distance from the shooter's face I am going to guess at maybe 80-90 feet or ca. 25-30 meters, based upon six-story buildings are roughly 60 feet from the ground.

According to this 2019 study (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311908.2019.1632047#abstract), eyewitness accuracy at 20 meters was found to be:

• in bright lighting witnesses get the right person out of an 8-person lineup 53% of the time;
• in medium lighting witnesses get the right person out of an 8-person lineup 41% of the time;
• and in poor lighting witnesses get the right person out of an 8-person lineup 11% of the time which is not better than chance.

Which lighting description and percentage of accuracy confidence would best describe the shooter's face Brennan saw at the sixth floor?

On the rifle, Oswald took that rifle out of Ruth Paine's garage on Nov 11, 1963 and there is no evidence it was returned to Ruth Paine's garage that day or after, and no evidence of its possession or whereabouts for the next 11 days until the day of the assassination, Nov 22, 1963 (https://www.scrollery.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Irving-Sport-Shop-109-pdf.pdf).

That's an 11-day black hole gap in information of where that rifle was before the assassination. That is so serious evidentially that nothing should be assumed that is not clearly established about the rifle's movements and custody in those eleven days leading up to Nov 22.

There have always been issues with confidence that it was Oswald shooting from the 6th floor. None of this is new:

• no target practice
• lack of rifle cleaning supplies or rifle ammo found among his stuff
• history of being a bad shot
• paraffin tests came up clean for gunshot residue on his cheek
• no credible witness identification

To which may be added one more now which is new:

• He said he was on the front steps at the entrance of the Book Depository at the time of the shooting. A photo shows he was.  

[David Von Pein]

26 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

Just to get this straight, you cite three reasons which "certainly", "beyond reasonable doubt" establish the sixth floor shooter was Oswald...

You have not stated this correctly. When I utilized the words you placed in quotes ("certainly" and "beyond reasonable doubt"), I wasn't only referring to Brennan's testimony and Oswald's rifle. I was referring to "all the evidence in both the JFK and Tippit murder cases" (which certainly includes a lot more than just Brennan and the rifle). Here's the full quote:

"The sum total of all the evidence in both the JFK and Tippit murder cases most certainly indicates that Lee Oswald was (beyond reasonable doubt, IMO) guilty of shooting both of those men with his own guns." -- DVP

 

Edited 2 hours ago by David Von Pein

[Greg Doudna]

15 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

You have not stated this correctly. When I utilized the words you placed in quotes ("certainly" and "beyond reasonable doubt"), I was referring not just to Brennan's testimony and the fact that Oswald would probably be the murderer while using his own rifle. I was referring to "all the evidence in both the JFK and Tippit murder cases" (which certainly includes a lot more than just Brennan and the rifle). Here's the full quote:

"The sum total of all the evidence in both the JFK and Tippit murder cases most certainly indicates that Lee Oswald was (beyond reasonable doubt, IMO) guilty of shooting both of those men with his own guns." -- DVP

But what among that evidence makes him the shooter, specifically, as opposed to your arguments making him involved in a JFKA conspiracy not necessarily requiring him at the 6th floor?

That’s the issue here—how do you know his role in the assassination was 6th floor shooter, and not some other role?

Don’t pass this off with a hand wave. How do you know what you think you know?

Do you feel certain PM was not Oswald, and if so why do you think you know that? 

Edited 1 hour ago by Greg Doudna

[David Von Pein]

43 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

But what among that evidence makes him the shooter, specifically, as opposed to your arguments making him involved in a JFKA conspiracy not necessarily requiring him at the 6th floor?

As I stated earlier, it's ALL of the evidence in its entirety that convicts Oswald, IMO.

And there's the fact that no strangers were seen in the building by anyone on 11/22 (except for the old man using the bathroom on the 1st floor).

Do you really believe that Oswald gave some stranger his rifle, and the stranger then shot JFK with it? Plus, the stranger/assassin somehow managed to GET INTO and OUT OF the building totally unnoticed by anyone who worked in the TSBD? (Not an impossible task, I suppose, but does it sound very probable?)

Or, as an alternative to the "stranger" theory, do you perhaps think that Oswald handed off his Carcano to a fellow TSBD employee?

 

Edited 1 hour ago by David Von Pein