Mark Tyler

17 hours ago, Joseph McBride said:

From my book INTO THE NIGHTMARE:

In the front seat were the driver from the Texas Highway Patrol, Hurchel Jacks, and the VP’s Secret Service agent, Rufus Youngblood. LBJ sat directly behind Youngblood, and Lady Bird between her husband and [Sen. Ralph] Yarborough. Directly ahead of their car was the Secret Service presidential followup car, the “Queen Mary.”

Senator Yarborough, who had “a lifetime of handling arms,” described for me his reactions to the shots fired in Dealey Plaza, giving an eyewitness and earwitness account that matched that of numerous other witnesses but is, like theirs, at odds over some details with what can now be seen in the altered Zapruder film:

"The first shot I heard I thought was a rifle shot. The second shot, the motorcade almost came to a halt. They said later that the president‘s car slowed to something like five miles an hour. I wondered what the hell they were stopping for when somebody is shooting. People were jumping out of the car in front of me [the Secret Service followup car] and running to the president‘s car. I thought maybe somebody had thrown a bomb in there. The third shot I heard was a rifle shot."

Thanks for sharing the quote from Yarborough Joseph; he does seem to be a good witness.  The slowing of the Presidential limo after the first shot is real, and there was indeed "jumping out of the car" by the Secret Service agents which is partially visible on the right hand frame of the Nix film.

Apart from witnesses saying the limo stopped, what other discrepancies between the film and the witness accounts troubles you the most?

On 1/12/2020 at 5:18 PM, Eddy Bainbridge said:

I would like to make a couple of points. I have watched Mark's video and wonder whether there is a flaw around Z312 and after. We know the presidential limo braked(brake lights), but this is not really perceptible on the animation , firstly there is no clearly noticeable coming together of limo and the following car, and secondly if I try to imagine watching this 'live' from a rear or side vantage point then I fail to see anyone reporting a stop or virtual stop (which significant numbers did).

My second point is that I contend there has been a removal of around 9 frames from Zapruder after Z312 (or around 0.5 seconds of film). I suspect this has masked a deceleration (to a near stop) and a rapid acceleration. The result on the extant film (and the animation) looks like a fairly constant speed over this period. This gives an explanation for the overly rapid head lurch, and the evidence suggesting a missing  rear head blowout (probably whilst Kennedy was facing downwards, causing mainly vertical blowout)

 

 

I agree that the limo braked, as the brake light on the right hand side is on briefly in the Muchmore film just before the head shot.  Sadly it's only a partial view, and the Muchmore film only started circa Z280 so we don't know how long it was braking for before that.  However, we do know the average speed went down from about 12 MPH to 8 MPH between Z224 and Z313, which means it was more like 13 MPH down to 7 MPH due to the time taken to accelerate and decelerate.

It's very difficult for bystanders to accurately gauge speed changes in the vehicles.  What we can do though is judge speed by comparing how other vehicles are moving.  In this case we see from the Zapruder film and the Nix film that the bikes are gaining on the limo up to about Z325-Z330 before they start braking and stopping and then the limo accelerates away.  This is evidence of the limo decelerating noticeably, rather than the limo stopping as such, but it does create an optical illusion which might explain why some people think the limo stopped on the day (i.e. brake lights combined with bikes catching up).

Anything is possible Eddy, and I can't rule out tampering with the films to hide something.  However, having looked very closely at the films for this project I have not discovered any obvious glitches or contradictions.  The Zapruder film wasn't published in full for over a decade which has always fuelled suspicions that something was being hidden.  Coupled with known evidence destruction such as Oswald's note to James Hosty being flushed down the toilet, I understand why trust in the authorities in the case has dwindled somewhat.

However, in the case of the Zapruder film certain frames were published by Life magazine within a week or two, with numbers of frames being quoted in the article text.  This means that any tampering would have had to be done extremely rapidly before Life got hold of the film.  This seems somewhat implausible to me given the circumstances.

Here is the latest release of Motorcade 63 (version 1.8):

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

As well as some fine tuning, I added the paths of: Rosemary Willis; Jay Skaggs; Emmett Hudson; and the man who ran up the knoll steps (I call him "Knoll Runner" in the animation).

Here are the new photos I added:

Bond 1
Grant
Moorman 4
Rickerby 0,1,2
Skaggs 4,5,6
Stoughton

A lot of people have mentioned the dictabelt evidence to me in recent weeks, so I added a large circle to show the time and place that the microphone is calculated to be by the HSCA scientists.  It's quite nice to see in real time where this needs to be.

I had the chance to review Dale Myers work regarding the Towner film frame rate.  Just to recap, in his 2007-2010 paper Myers said that the Towner film was recorded at 22.8 FPS, which is somewhat higher than was to be expected for a camera of that type.  In the end my estimate of the frame rate was very close to his, so I favour his measurements much more than those suggesting that the camera was recording at 18-20 FPS.  The full details of my workings are in appendix C.2 of the handbook:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

The animation has been adjusted to account for this higher frame rate which speeds up the Presidential limo as it turns the corner onto Elm Street.

As always, thanks to everyone who has contacted me to help improve the animation.  Cheers!

On 11/28/2019 at 2:41 PM, David Josephs said:

As you mention, Towner “looks” smooth but the anomaly I show might be what accounts for that.... Furthermore, if you search this forum for the MATH RULES thread, we determine quite a few things about that turn, Towner (whose camera had to be set to the ridiculous 22+FPS when it ran at 16 just like zapruder), and Zapruder....

I got hold of Tina Towner's book, but alas it didn't contain any details about the zoom feature.  Just for reference this is how it would have worked, with the zoom triggered by the buttons on the top:

Hopefully I will get enough time over the next few days to study the Towner and Hughes films in more detail so I can know what speed it was being recorded at.  It has a big impact on the animation so its important I get this done to establish the speed of the Limo turning the bend onto Elm Street.

On 10/7/2019 at 6:17 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Mark,

One of the most important elements in a study such as yours is the inclusion of distance traveled. imo

I agree Chris, which is why I added total distance travelled to the latest test version of the program:

You can calculate the distance travelled between two points by subtracting one number from the other to get the distance travelled in feet.  This is especially handy for vehicles going round a corner as calculating that manually would be somewhat cumbersome and error prone.

I put the number of feet travelled after the actor name, which I think is the only way to display things without clogging up the main animation area.  Hopefully this addition to the next version of the animation will enable more detailed analysis of the crime scene.

On 11/29/2019 at 2:19 AM, David Josephs said:

Nice work Mark... kudos....

Thanks David, its hard work but I think I'm making progress.  The only snag at the moment is that my to do list seems to be growing faster than I am able to tick the items off!

On 11/29/2019 at 2:19 AM, David Josephs said:

how many frames would think are missing between 132 and 133?
 

That's a very interesting composite image between the two Zapruder film sequences.  It reminds me somewhat of the composite images found between the sprocket holes which seem to blend adjacent frames.

The gap between Z132 and Z133 measured by time in the animation is about 22.7 seconds.  At the official 18.3 FPS that's roughly 415 Zapruder film frames.

Dale Myers uses a faster frame rate for the Towner film than I do (22.8 FPS versus ~18 FPS), which could slice off a couple of seconds from my estimate down to about 20.7 secs (or 379 frames).

I haven't had time to fully check Dale's synchronizations so I don't really know whether his 22.8 FPS is correct for the Towner film, or whether the Sixth Floor Museum is correct when they say 18 FPS is the rate.  Another item for my to do list I think!

The key to this comparison is the 4.8 second overlap between a segment of the Hughes film and the Towner film showing the Limo turning from Houston Street onto Elm Street.  I should be able to check this using the same geometric tools as with the previous Muchmore/Hughes/Zapruder film comparison, so this looks like a solvable problem.  Once I have done this we should know whether the Towner film was running at the same speed as the Hughes film, or faster (i.e. ~18 FPS or 22.8 FPS).

Here is the latest release of Motorcade 63 (version 1.7):

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

As well as general tweaking to improve the accuracy (thanks to everyone who helped out this time!), I added a yellow triangle for the Dillard 2 photo (just seconds after the final shot was fired).

Perhaps more importantly, I added the Jack Weaver photo which I calculate as happening at the same time as Zapruder frame Z035 based on the triangulated position of the motorbike turning the corner:

If you look closely, you can see JFK's crooked elbow in Muchmore frame 267 as he pushes his hair back:

The full details are in appendix D.2 of the updated handbook.  Crucially this spell of the Zapruder film was recorded while the Hughes and Muchmore films were also being recorded, which means I have been able to calculate the relative speeds that the films were all recorded at.  For example if the Hughes film was recorded at 18 FPS, then the Zapruder and Muchmore film rates were 18.4 FPS.  If the Hughes film was recorded at 19 FPS, then Zapruder and Muchmore were recording at 19.4 FPS.  We can never know the exact rates, only the numerical relationships between them.

This correlation of different films was possible by matching unique events that were recorded in each of the films, and by doing split second comparisons.  For example I was able to calculate the relative speeds of the Muchmore film and the Hughes film using the front blinking lights on the Presidential Limo.  These observations prove that the Muchmore film was recorded fractionally faster than the Hughes film.

As always, if anyone disagrees with the animation, my calculations, or methodology, please let me know as I am keen to make the work as accurate as possible.

15 hours ago, Ian Lloyd said:

Did the SS do a practice run of the motorcade route before the 22nd?

That's an interesting question Ian, I'm not sure what the answer is regarding the Secret Service.  I recall reading in the Warren Commission volumes about the Dallas Police Department (DPD) organising the route, and which officers would be responsible for different parts of the escort.  I would assume that the local authorities like the DPD would have the on the ground expertise.

7 hours ago, David Josephs said:

Which tools Mark?  Math is math...

Indeed!  The historical angle of my comment is useful because it reminds us all how primitive the tools were back in the 1960's.  My computer program uses Bézier curves and does millions of calculations to create the final animation frames, which in 1963 would have taken a very long time to do.  Even a cheap smartphone today has more computational power than a supercomputer from that era.  We really are spoilt nowadays.

7 hours ago, David Josephs said:

Mark, with the original survey we learn Shaneyfelt and the FBI altered the data to make it impossible to place the limo correctly within Zapruder... these were deliberate moves of the limo path to account for 3 and only 3 shots fired....

this suggests they saw shots in 6 different frames, or simply calculated shot frames using reverse engineering and not the visual record. Life’s scenario seems closest to auditory evidence yet the big Q about that is how they determined the first and second shots and why use 18fps instead of the camera’s 16fps natural setting?

Thanks for mentioning Life magazine David, this is a useful historical benchmark and gives us an insight into the days following the assassination.  I found an online version of the December 20, 1963 edition here:

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ZlIEAAAAMBAJ

The Paul Mandel article referenced is near the end of the magazine.  There are also links to the other editions which are also worth reading.  The type written notes from Paul Mandel are here from Dec. 6, 1963:

http://jfk.hood.edu/Collection/White Materials/White Assassination Clippings Folders/Oswald Family Folders/Oswald/Osw-03.pdf

These notes are exactly two weeks after the assassination so its a useful reference to the early official theory about the 3 shots:

1. Hits JFK
2. Hits JBC
3. Hits JFK

J. Edgar Hoover mentioned this scenario in a telephone call to LBJ a week after the assassination:

Its also interesting how quickly Life magazine was discussing the 16/18 FPS issues just days after the assassination.  The general observation I am making here is that Life Magazine and the FBI were singing from the same song-sheet (publicly and privately), which I think answers your question about where they got the info about the first shot at Z190 and the second shot at Z242-Z264.

22 hours ago, David Josephs said:

If she did, everything in frame gets larger, even vehicles moving away....  

Indeed, all other things being equal everything in the frame should get larger.  However a moving object will get smaller if the zooming is not fast enough to compensate for the vehicle moving away from the camera.  The effects of the perspective are especially pronounced in this case because the car was so close to the camera and was therefore very large in the frame at first.

Judging from the animation the limo was accelerating out of the corner at around 8 MPH, which while not especially fast was probably enough to trigger Tina Towner to try and compensate with the zoom to keep the subject in view.  Its just a theory at this stage, but it may be possible to find out if this happened so I shall try and get hold of a copy of her book to find out.

22 hours ago, David Josephs said:

The spot involves that crazy wide turn Truly said the limo made... and Position A... which FBI states the limo does pass thru, just not on film.

There seem to have been a reasonable number of people on that corner, did anyone else mention the wide turn?

Position A as depicted in the re-enactment photo is not consistent with the Towner film, which shows a smooth turn from Houston Street onto Elm Street (except for a brief gap Dale Myers suggests is a 7 frame splice).  Logically this means either that either the film is wrong (as you suggest), or that Truly and the FBI made some kind of mistake in placing the car wider.

For the animation I measured the Limo positions at the beginning and end of the Towner film, as well as after a few seconds of the Zapruder film restarting.  The Limo speed seems to decelerate coming into the corner, and then accelerate out in a logical and smooth pattern, including matching the photos taken by: Phil Willis at Z133; Robert Croft at Z161; Hugh Betzner at Z186; and Phil Willis at Z202.

Of course the smoothness of the animation doesn't itself prove this is what happened in 1963, but the bigger point is that the known films, photos, and eyewitness accounts do all seem to corroborate each other (with the odd minor exception like the Truly statement).  This reflects how I judge "the weight of the evidence", i.e. in total how much evidence supports the animation view, versus how much evidence supports alternative theories of events.

The mistakes that the FBI made are rather unfortunate, and should be filed in a box called "Red Herrings" alongside anything that relies on the work such as the Warren Commission report.  As always in historical or technical research, its best to use the primary evidence and not the flawed secondary analysis such as CE 884.

If I was to be charitable to the Warren Commission and the FBI I could point out that the mathematical and computational tools I use didn't exist in 1963.  As a result their primitive hand made calculations will have more errors than anything done by more sophisticated and automated tools today.

17 hours ago, David Josephs said:

How about for this then Mark...

As the limo moves away from TOWNER the column in the background gets larger while the rear tire of the limo in the foreground gets smaller....

I added a gif over here as I've run out of room here.... https://deeppoliticsforum.com/forums/showthread.php?17196-Manipulation-of-TOWNER-film&p=126353#post126353

Both Zapruder and Towner needed "fixing" to account for how badly they represent what actually happened.

This is a really interesting detail you have noticed David, thanks for sharing it.  I have measured the pillar width from the Sixth Floor Museum version of the film, and as you say it does seem to enlarge (in the region of 20% I would say).  I also measured the Pergola in the distance and the vertical height seems to increase by a further 5% after the pillar starts to disappear off the right hand frame.  The gap between the sprocket holes remains within about 1%, so that's a useful physical benchmark, assuming no digital retouching was done!

The simplest explanation is that the camera was zoomed during recording.  I've not studied the camera in too much detail so I'm not sure if this was possible, but the model is called the "Varizoom" so I suspect this could be the explanation:

https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/43383/tower-varizoom-8mm-movie-camera

If Towner did zoom the camera lens in back in 1963, the car would have been moving away, which explains its shrinking size.  By contrast the zooming in of the lens would slightly enlarge the fixed objects such as the pillar and pergola by the 20-30% I measured.  If she didn't zoom, its hard to think of an innocent explanation for this change in size while the sprocket holes remain the same.

Alas I haven't read Tina Towner's 2013 book (My Story as the Youngest Photographer at the Kennedy Assassination), where she may go into this detail about whether she zoomed the lens during her filming or not.  Has anyone on the forum read this book?  It may be able to shed some light on this rather interesting observation that David has made.

On 11/16/2019 at 6:16 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Yes, the speed of the limo is very important, as was known by the entity with unlimited resources.

I hope you don't truly believe your comment about incompetence related to the WC work.

The only people I know of that refer to CE884(both versions) as "junk data" are those that don't understand its intrinsic value.

There are many possible explanations for CE 884:

1. Incompetent behaviour, e.g. clerical error writing up the tables, surveying error, bungled frame numbers, using a car that was different to the Presidential Limo, and putting the Limo in the wrong place in the road lanes, etc.
2. Deceit (i.e. fiddling the figures to avoid the public knowing the real Limo speed).
3. The surveyors using a different film to the extant ones we see.

Me not understanding the intrinsic value of the table is possible, so I'm quite happy to reflect on that over the coming months as the animation develops.  There are only so many sources of photos and films so once I have encoded this data into the project, I will get a chance to review everything at the end to see if the loose ends and anomalies need further work to sort them out.

On 11/16/2019 at 6:16 PM, Chris Davidson said:

I wish you well with the animation, but I've shown you have a problem with the limo speed and until you realize what's needed to resolve it, my input is complete.

I call it "thinking outside the box"

Indeed, and I'm all in favour of original and creative ideas if they help people understand the events more clearly.  The animation is currently at version 1.6 and will hopefully see many more improved versions as my knowledge increases over the coming months.  I am constantly reviewing and updating the work as I get more information, so my door is always open to anyone correcting my mistakes or misunderstandings.

By the way, do the issues you have identified with the Zapruder film Z133-Z486 also affect Z001-Z132?  In other words do you think that section was recorded at 18 FPS, or 48 FPS with frames removed?  If frames were removed, was it downgraded to 24 FPS or 16 FPS?

On 11/16/2019 at 6:16 PM, Chris Davidson said:

P.S. Something to ponder/review: How does this lead back into the initial timing problems you had with the Z/Bell/Wiegman sync.

The original "Wiegman Timing Anomaly" I identified is that its impossible for all of these to be true:

1. The Zapruder film was recorded at 18.3 FPS.
2. The Zapruder film Z295-Z447 is a complete record of the events.
3. The Wiegman film was recorded at 24 FPS.
4. The Wiegman film started recording at Z295.

I solve the puzzle by challenging 3), i.e. bumping up the Wiegman film to 27-31 FPS which enables the other items to be approximately correct.  The support for this action is my observation that parts of the Wiegman film look too slow to the human eye when played back at 24 FPS, but look better at 27-31 FPS.

You are challenging 1), 2), and 4) and you use the Bell film and CE 884 as parts of the explanation.

Dale Myers challenges 4) by putting the start point as Z246, but I think this is wrong based on the Altgens photo which proves that the Mayors car is nowhere near the traffic lights at Z246.

As the animation becomes more complete I'm sure the problems will all be resolved.

On 11/14/2019 at 11:38 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Backtracking to z133:

The graphic consists of Sprague/Cutler scaled/layered over the May 1964 WC plat.

Look closely(3+00) and you’ll find that Sprague plots z133 at Station# 2+99.

CE884 lists z161@Station#3+29.2

329.2 - 299 = 30.2ft.

The WC shorted the distance from z161-z166.

The dreaded CE 884 rears it ugly head again!  As is commonly accepted the table is basically junk data, but the question is then: Is it junk through incompetence; or a deliberate act to mislead and distract?  Or both!

I did come across this work from way back in 2001 which explores the issue of CE 884:

http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/ngarchive/Altered_Evidence.pdf

I believe Thomas Purvis has posted on this forum many times, and had discussions with you Chris.

Because I'm busy with the animation at the moment, I haven't really got the time to dissect this angle properly (even though I think it is a study worth doing).  However, after reading about James Hosty being ordered to destroy Oswald's note to the FBI, nothing would surprise me regarding incompetence and deceit in this case.  Over the years in my working life I have found that incompetence and deceit often walk hand in hand as people try to avoid responsibility for their mistakes.

On 11/11/2019 at 4:53 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Generally speaking, you are following along very well.

Great!  Its very easy to get the wrong end of the stick, so the sooner that gets spotted, the sooner I can rewind and try again.

On 11/11/2019 at 4:53 PM, Chris Davidson said:

The beauty of your animation(among other aspects) is the instantaneous speeds created.

The speeds are crucial to sanity check the animation, and also to properly understand the events from 1963 (e.g. the Limo slowing between Z224 and Z313).  If anything is too fast or too slow, or accelerates or decelerates too much, I have made a mistake (or something else is wrong).  Its a bit like the proverbial canary in a coal mine to warn me of danger.

On 11/11/2019 at 4:53 PM, Chris Davidson said:

If you follow, I'll move on.

Sure.

16 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Mark,

When a 48fps slo-mo has 1/2 the frames removed, it gives you a variation of 24fps.

 

OK, I think I follow your logic:

Zapruder films the motorcade with the camera in slow motion mode at 48 FPS.

In the year following, half of these frames disappeared (removing alternate frames to reduce the viewed rate down to 24 FPS), possibly including scenes that need to be censored.  The so called "extant film" is the 486 frames as named by the Warren Commission.

Presumably the Muchmore and Nix films will also need to be adjusted, as I have found them to be roughly equivalent frame rate wise.  Or maybe the Zapruder frame removals were simply fiddled to fit in with those without any censoring of these other films?  i.e. those two films were really shot using the 18 FPS mode as declared.

If I have got the wrong end of the stick, feel free to let me know!

2 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Working backwards some more, let's move Myers back to Z133:

246-133 = 113

113/24 = 4.7sec (close enough, you get the picture)

113/18.3 = 6.174

6.174 - 4.7 = 1.474sec

That's why I said pretend in adding the time to the Bell gap, way after the fact.

Does anyone see the difference in making this sync occur?

Think in terms of frame rates if you missed it.

By doing 113/24 FPS, are you saying that the true Zapruder frame rate is 24 FPS?

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

After Mark's latest presentation, I have nothing more to say about his simulation.

Fair enough John, I understand.  Thanks for helping out and enabling me to make the animation more consistent with the documented facts (e.g. the Pilot Car), and making other useful suggestions too.

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

Any of the images in this series showing vehicles, tires, or hub caps are to blurry to say conclusively that is what is being seen.  It could equally be the payment or if black the shadow of someone.  To blurry to say anything.

If these frames were taken in isolation I would agree with you John.  However, the point I was making was that the Mayors car will need to be within a few feet of this point as there is a big gap between it and the VP SS follow up car ahead, and the Press Pool car behind was level with the tall concrete pillar as per Z193:

In other words, the Mayors car was probably within 10 feet of the edge of the end wall of the reflecting pool and the sighting of the front wheel at exactly Z180 is merely pinpointing this more accurately in space and time.  The mathematics in the animation suggests this is a good estimate as the speed of the car is relatively consistent.

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

It doesn't make any sense for me to point this out again and again.  Mark has his way of looking at things and it is his simulation.  He will have to stand behind whatever he has his simulation doing.

The purpose of the animation is to get as close to the facts as possible, and see where that leads us.  If anyone points out errors I will correct them without fear or favour, which is why I am versioning the videos to show that its work in progress.  Its an open ended project with no singular pre-conceived destination: I welcome assistance from anyone, whatever their views.

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

Zapruder 133 shows the p. limo at about 50 feet from the Stemmons sign and at the southwest corner of the TSBD.  This is about 9.8 or 10 seconds from the fatal head shot according to Zapruder.    Z 313- Z 133 - 180 frames by 18.3 and you have 9.8 seconds.  Add about 14 seconds for the Gap, 10 seconds to the fatal shooting, and whatever time the motorcade is still on Houston, perhaps just a few seconds, and add the time the Mayor's Car is stopped in the turn, 6 to 8 seconds, and you have what?  14.5 seconds for the Gap, 10 seconds from Z 133 to Z 313, 6 to 8 seconds for the Mayors Car to stop and hear the first shot you have a period of about 30+ seconds.  This would be Zapruder timing plus Dearie's effort to say what was needed for the cover up.  Other people say other things.  And, this is the reason I do not trust the Zapruder film.   

Thanks for explaining why you don't trust the Zapruder film.

Part of the purpose of me assuming that the Zapruder film is correct, is that it may reveal inconsistencies in the animation.  If that happens I will be very happy to say that I too do not trust that film.  My work hasn't yet revealed any inconsistencies other than the Wiegman film timing issues (which could have a fairly benign frame rate explanation).  Time will tell whether my theory regarding frame rates is correct or not.  The jury is out as they say!

3 hours ago, John Butler said:

She clearly says the "first shot rang out".  And she clearly says "we were making the turn" and was at the "top of the hill".

I agree with this John: she hears the shot, looks up, and sees the gun in the window while the car is making the turn from Houston to Elm Street during the 2-3 seconds Z180-Z224.

3 hours ago, John Butler said:

I did not say the Mayor's Car stopped on Houston Street.

Thanks for clarifying this, I now understand what you mean.  Further in her interview she said:

"It was in just a fleeting second that I jerked my head up and I saw something in that window, and I turned around to say to Earle, “Earle, it is a shot”, and before I got the words out, just as I got the words out, he said, “Oh, no; it must have been a-” the second two shots rang out.  After that, there is a certain amount of confusion in my mind, I was acutely aware of the odor of gunpowder. I was aware that the motorcade stopped dead still. There was no question about that."

Just for emphasis she said in order: "the second two shots rang out" and "the motorcade stopped dead still".  I have interpreted this as meaning the Mayors car stopped after the third shot.  Did you interpret this as meaning after the first shot?

Source: Warren Commission Volume 7 pages 486-487:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/pdf/WH7_MrsEarleCabell.pdf

Just for context this is what the driver of the car (Milton Wright) said this on November 28, 1963:

"The car I was driving had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30 feet from the intersection when I heard the first shot.  When the second shot was fired I noticed a number of people running away from the motorcade and I saw several Dallas motorcycle policemen had their guns drawn. Then the motorcade speeded up and we went toward the hospital."

Source: Warren Commission Volume 18 Page 802:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh18/html/WH_Vol18_0408b.htm

From a letter written in 1998 (Source: Vincent  Palamara "JFK:  The  Medical  Evidence  Reference") Milton Wright adds some info about the third and final shot:

"As we were turning in front of the book depository, the first shot was fired.  When the second shot was fired I believed that it came from the book building.  I stopped and was looking at the building when the third shot was fired."

Here is the online reference:

http://www.patspeer.com/chapter6:piecesontheroad

My interpretation of the above witness statements is that the car stopped just once on Elm Street, just past the TSBD, but not in front of it.  Naturally I am happy to be persuaded otherwise if I have overlooked anything.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Cherry picking data is what people usually do once they fall afoul of the conflicting, contrary events of Dealey Plaza.  Mrs. Dearie Cabell clearly stated where her vehicle stopped.  You are misreading her testimony.

I have re-read these Cabell quotes several times, including the original testimony here:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/html/WC_Vol7_0247b.htm

However I cannot see where she says the car stopped on Houston Street.  She says the car stopped for a few seconds after the third shot on Elm Street, but nothing else.  If I have missed the quote, please cite the sentence where she said they stopped on Houston Street.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Where you have her she would have to turn to see the TSBD.

Have a look at this frame from the animation at Z210 and the purple triangle shows her view of the TSBD which is straight ahead:

She said:

Mr. HUBERT : Actually, you were facing―
Mrs. CABELL : The building.
Mr. HUBERT : The Texas Depository Building?
Mrs. CABELL : I was actually facing it.
Mr. HUBERT: What was the first thing you noticed of an extraordinary nature, or heard?
Mrs. CABELL: I heard the shot, and without having to turn my head, I jerked my head up.

I interpret this as matching the above animation frame.

Source: Warren Commission Volume 7 Page 486:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/html/WC_Vol7_0247b.htm

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

The first shot that she heard probably took place somewhere between Z180 and about Z225.  Many people think that the shot occurred while the p. limo was behind the Stemmons sign.

I agree with this timeframe.  There was definitely at least one shot in that range, possibly two as some witnesses reported a double bang such as Jean Hill and Gayle Newman (both reported this on the day of the assassination so it is reliable).  We can speculate whether the two noises were echoes from a single shot, or two different gunshots from two gunmen firing within a second or two of each other.  Either of these interpretations seems plausible to me.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Weigman/Couch shows that the Camera Cars were held up on Houston Street for about 30 seconds, 28. or 29 seconds if you follow Chris Davidson. 

Strictly speaking the camera cars were held up on the turn from Houston to Elm, but otherwise I agree that they were held up.  In the animation the delay is about 20 seconds but we cannot be precise so it could have been longer.  Camera Car #1 had to stop because the Mayors car and the Press Pool car stopped, which is when Wiegman jumped out and caught this frame while he was running down Elm Street:

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Weigman clearly said he heard 3 shots while he was on Houston Street.  And, the car was slowing and stopping there.  He hit the pavement on the third shot and ran for the intersection.

I think he heard 2 shots on Houston Street (one before he started filming, and one just after starting), and the third shot 2-3 seconds before the above Wiegman film frame was taken when he started his run at the top of Elm Street.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

If you believe that the third shot occurred at Zapruder 313 then your timing is wrong on Zapruder or Weigman or Darnell/Couch or Weigman and others are false witnesses.

No I don't believe Z313 is the third shot, I believe it is the second shot.  This is confirmed by the witnesses who describe it as the second shot like Zapruder, Sitzman, Bill Newman, and Charles Brehm.  The third shot is 5 seconds later at Z400 when Wiegman is just about out of his car on the turn into Elm Street.

To be clear, based on the witnesses I identify audible shots being fired at:

Z185

Z310

Z400

I don't rule out extra shots fired very quickly around these points, e.g. Z215, Z330, or Z420 because some witnesses may have assumed the two shots were simply the echoes from a single shot.  About a dozen witnesses did mention four or more shots, which is why I remain on the fence regarding more shots and a possible conspiracy.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

A mere 6 seconds is about the time the Mayor's Car stopped "on the turn" while turning into the intersection.  They were facing the TSBD directly according to Dearie Cabell.  A mere 6-8 seconds is about the time the alleged Oswald shooter fired his weapon from the sixth floor.  A mere 6 seconds changed history forever.

The 6 seconds is the time between positions recorded in the films, so I said "merely" because its not enough time to stop the car, wait a few seconds, restart it, and then travel the 70 feet or so between the points on the turn from Houston to Elm.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

If you are correct the Mayor's car should be making the turn at Zapruder 180.  Frame 180 or frames 180-208 do not show that.  They show the Johnson security vehicle  And, the turn can not be seen after those frames.  This frame, Z295  shows at least one shot was fired according to the magic bullet theory.  The one that struck Kennedy and Connally.  295 -180= 115 frames and about 6.3 seconds.  The Mayor's Car is still facing the TSBD.

Just for context, here is the Mayors car and the following National Press Pool car on Houston Street as depicted in a Hughes frame, circa 14 seconds before the fatal shot:

At about Z133, or 10 seconds before the fatal shot Hughes catches the two cars again:

Notice the VP SS follow up turning in the background as visible in Z133 behind the crowd which places the wall in line with the turning point on Houston Street:

The Mayors car at Z180 (7 seconds before the fatal shot) is hard to see because it is mostly concealed by the crowd.  The front left wheel becomes visible very briefly.  Here is the gap between the spectators at Z176:

Here is the front of the black wheel arch area coming into view in Z179:

Lastly here is the hub cap in Z180, along with the black tyre (or tire if you prefer the US spelling!):

The Z180 sighting is somewhat hard to see, but is proven to be correct due to the National Press Pool car being visible to the right of the tall pillar in Z193:

The Mayors car is not visible in the Elm Street as we both agree (and as seen in the above image), but it must be in front of the Press Pool car.  Therefore the wheel we see behind the crowd at Z180 must be the Mayors car by logical deduction (it can't be any other vehicle).  The animation proves this is correct as the vehicle is travelling a relatively constant 8-9 MPH at this time.  Everything fits perfectly between Z180 and Z295 as the car turns the corner in those 6 seconds with no time to stop, then: Wiegman starts his filming; the second fatal shot is fired; the Mayors car continues for a fews seconds onto Elm Street before stopping when the third shot is fired.

Here is the first clear Wiegman frame showing the two cars which I calculate to be less than a second before the fatal shot was fired:

The Mayors car at this point is at the beginning of Elm Street near the traffic lights, and about 5 seconds later stops due to the chaos ahead in the aftermath of the fatal shot.  This Wiegman frame is clear enough to even see the occupants of the Mayors car!

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Can you explain what the arrow points to?  Where is the Mayor's Car?

This is frame Z 165 and it clearly shows which vehicle is making the turn:

It is not significantly different than Z 180 less than a second later.

The red arrow seems to be pointing to where the low wall meets the tall concrete block.  This looks to be frame Z176 so the Mayors car is still hidden behind the crowd and the wall with the holes at the end of the reflecting pool.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Witness statements with all their problems are generally more reliable than any Dealey Plaza photo or film.  Which would be preferred in a court?

The witnesses are hugely important, but sadly too many researchers discard their evidence.  I think the correct approach is to exhaustively go through each statement and look for useful information.  The best example of this is Pat Speer's work in chapters 5-8 of his online book:

http://www.patspeer.com/

The great thing about Pat's work is that you can compare and contrast the earliest statements with the later statements which sadly shows many witnesses change their views over time.  What I have tried to do with my work is focus on the earliest possible statements to avoid this problem (preferably taken on the day in written statements or TV interviews).

Sadly Wiegman didn't give a statement until many years after the event, but his story is quite unique: he was running along Elm Street, he heard a shot fired, and he felt it on his face.  The timing of this is supported by the driver of the Mayors car who said he had just stopped when the final shot was fired, and also Lee Bowers who saw the Limo emerge from behind the Pergola around the time of the final shot.  About a dozen or so witnesses are also adamant that there was at least one shot after the fatal head shot.

Therefore I conclude the final shot was fired at circa Z400.  Its an unpopular view in the research community, but it does seem to explain the witness testimony, including the James Tague injury.

If readers need more info, have a look at the technical details with witness statements, etc in chapter 6 of my handbook:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

4 hours ago, John Butler said:

Mark,

Weigman said in his testimony that the motorcade stopped, at least his part, stopped on Houston.  He exited his vehicle and ran to Elm Street.  For a brief period of time the Mayor's Car was stopped in the turn where it was directly facing the TSBD not further down the street.  That is what Mrs. Cabell said.  I estimate that it took Weigman at least 3 to 5 seconds to reach the Mayor's Car and the intersection.  It could be more.  If my memory serves Weigman heard shots or a shot before he exited his vehicle.  Weigman said: 

“We were in that straight-a-way heading down to what I now know as the Book Depository, (Houston Street comment added) and I heard the first report and I thought like everybody that it was a good size firecracker—a cherry bomb .Then when I heard the second one, the adrenaline really started pumping because there was a reaction in the motorcade, I was sitting on the edge of the (car door) frame, which I sometimes did. I keenly remember right after the incident that my feet were on the ground during one of the reports.
I don’t think I was fast enough to react to the second, but I think on the third one I was running. The car had slowed down enough for me to jump out. I swung my leg over and jumped while the car was still moving, but it was very slow. I jumped and I remember running and I remember the third shot.  When I got out I knew I better get around the corner. The car was  stopping. I’d better run around there and see what was happening."

 

I disagree John, there is no evidence of Camera car #1 or the Mayors car stopping on Houston Street in the witness testimony or photos and films.  Both Cabell and Wiegman made comments indicating that the cars only stopped once both had reached Elm Street.

At Z180 the Zapruder film shows the Mayors car just about to start the turn from Houston Street to Elm Street.  A mere 6 seconds later Wiegman starts his film at Z295 and we see the Mayors car just passing the TSBD onto Elm Street.  This means that it was travelling continuously at 7-9 MPH in the 6 seconds between Z180 and Z295 to get from A to B on the map.  Therefore there is not the time for any vehicles to stop in the sequence.

21 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

The conversion of the original Wiegman film from 24 to 30 fps involved one or the other process.

The second process not included in the graphic involved adding one repeat frame with four progressive ones.

The end result is the same in terms of total frames created.

The total frame count for the Wiegman 36.5sec version = 1096 frames (see graphic-red box).

If you want to convert this back to total frames for a 24fps progressive movie, multiply total frames by (24/30) = .8

1096 x .8 = 876.8 total progressive frames

876.8/ 36.5sec = 24.02 fps

Unfortunately unpicking the broadcast frames to get the original Wiegman frames is a messy affair for the reasons you mention.  The best approach would be to use the original film frames, but I'm not aware of any published source for this.  In fact, even if we did have the original frames we still would not know what the correct frame rate the film was recorded at, so we would have to simply replay the frames at different rates and make a judgement.

The most accurate method to judge film speeds is to compare directly to other films and get a relative speed, which is what you are doing.  Sadly with the gaps in the Bell film, its a rather patchy comparison which may affect the accuracy of the final judgement.

On 11/4/2019 at 6:38 PM, John Butler said:

At first I didn't think much of your project however,  it is coming along well.  Your doing good work and keep it up. 

It will take a bit of time to get everything right, but eventually all of the photos and films should slot into place in the animation sequence.  Once this is done hopefully some of the odd mysteries in the case can be solved, such as how I resolved the timing of the missed shot by synchronizing the witness statements with the positions of the cars in the motorcade.

On 11/4/2019 at 6:38 PM, John Butler said:

The Vice Presidential security vehicle looks like it has just made the turn onto Elm Street and is in the intersection of Elm and Houston.  If it is further down the road as you have placed it then the people on the side walk should appear smaller.  The Vice Presidential vehicle is at best one or at most two white stripes from the SS security vehicle.  It and the VP car is perhaps 2 car lengths from the SS vehicle.  You have it placed further down the street.  This maybe just a matter of visual interpretation on camera angles.  You have it passing the first tree on Elm or more correctly the little island whereas Altgens shows the vehicle before it reaches the tree.

I think this is an optical illusion in the photo which has the effect of compressing the distance on Elm Street.  However the position of the Vice President car and Secret Service follow up car is known at Z133 in the Zapruder film and then Z313 in the Bronson film:

The key to accurate position measurements is having a view perpendicular to the subject and fixed positions to compare to.  Once we have the positions in space, and time we can then measure the average speed.  Finally we can calculate the actor position at any point in time Z133-Z313 using mathematical calculations, such as Z255 when the Altgens photo was taken.

The more films we can measure from, the more accurate the final animation will be.  I'm fairly confident that the animation is correct here due to the exact measurements taken from the above photos and the smooth changes in the car speeds that we see in the video as they accelerated out of the corner.

On 11/4/2019 at 6:38 PM, John Butler said:

You have omitted the Mayor's Car which has Mrs. Dearie Cabell in it.  You have these vehicles, 19 and 20,  stopping in front of the TSBD on Elm Street.  Read Mrs. Cabell's WC testimony and she says exactly where her vehicle stopped.  She said her vehicle stopped in the turn and she was looking directly at the TSBD.

The animation screenshot above is just after David Wiegman has started his run down Elm Street which places it around Z430, by which time the Mayors car has indeed stopped as was mentioned by some of the people in the car.  The confirmation of this is a Wiegman film frame at about Z447 showing the brake lights of the Press Pool car which was forced to stop:

In your animation screenshot above you correctly note that there is no reference to the Mayors car.  This is because the animation only shows references to moving objects which is why "19" does not appear.

Elizabeth Cabell is a very reliable and useful witness.  In the animation I depicted her looking at the TSBD at Z210 with a purple triangle, just after the first shot at Z185.  The Zapruder film tells us exactly where the Mayors car is at Z180 (i.e. beginning its turn onto Elm Street) so we know this position very accurately and as a result we can reject any shot being fired before Z185 (i.e. the mythical early missed shot) because the car hadn't started the turn before this time.

In her testimony she didn't say that the car stopped on the corner, she said that the car was in the process of turning.  The stop didn't happen until they were well onto Elm Street which is proven by the above Wiegman frame.  The cars which did stop on the corner were the 3 camera cars, which is when this photo was taken by Dillard:

https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/22812/photograph-of-the-texas-school-book-depository-shortly-after

As you can tell by the angle of view, its almost exactly in line with the east side of the TSBD facing the Daltex building.  I have just added this Dillard photo to the animation as per this frame:

In the text box by the clock I mention Jarman, Williams, and Norman as they are in view in the photo blow ups.  Here are two of the three people mentioned:

The important point about this is the timing, as according to his testimony Dillard took this photo in the seconds following the final shot when his car stopped on the corner.  By my calculations this photo was taken about 5 seconds after the third shot (which missed), and 10 seconds after the second shot (the fatal head shot).  In other words he was just a second or two too late catching the assassin making his getaway.

Thanks for raising these questions John, as it proves how useful the animation is in confirming when photos were taken, and also matching witness statements.  This is a very complex crime scene, so having a single point of reference to replay events makes the job of researching this case much easier.