Bill Fite
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Posts posted by Bill Fite
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1 hour ago, Joe Bauer said:
Thank you Bill Fite.
As much as Jim Di clearly exposes the false and falsely manipulated CBS conclusions, your above post greatly enhances his truth deception research and findings including the contrary bullet deformation and grain loss variation after firing into a goat carcass and cadaver wrist bones, gunpowder residue present on "all" 7 Carcano MC test firing subjects but none on Oswald, etc.
My little add on that I have posted before regards the physical and mental stress conditions on a JFK shooter ( allegedly Oswald ) versus anyone trying to duplicate the shooting scenario is this:
One must consider how much stress was on the shooter of JFK.
He has one opportunity and about 6 seconds ( less after he misses his first shot completely!) to hit his target ... the President of the United States!
In broad daylight and in front of hundreds of bystanders and security just 100 to 300 feet away, who he knows will probably be looking up in his direction, especially by the time of his third super loud cannon boom shot.
Making bulls-eye hits with his crap rifle on an 8 to 10 inch wide moving target almost a football field away is an extremely difficult challenge on it's own, but doing this under fear of your own immediate death might tend to makes one hands a little more sweaty and shaky than shooters replicating the shots under extremely relaxed and less extreme life and death worry and rushed conditions.
He knows he is in the most extreme life and death risk situation, perhaps just seconds away. He has an escape plan but it is so simple ( RUN AND THROW THE GUN DOWN) between some boxes, that he fears it is as risky as the actual shooting.
If the shooter isn't hyper-anxious and scared during this whole episode, he must be either drugged with Valium or Manchurian Candidate hypnotized.
These psychological dynamics put upon such a shooter are real.
They must be considered in any replicated setting of trial shooters versus the real experience of the actual shooter imo.
The hyped up gun aiming Marion Baker reported scene of Oswald casually sipping a soda pop in the 2nd floor TXSBD lunch room also begs the suspicious question of improbable calmness considering what Oswald allegedly pulled off just a very few minutes before.
If Oswald was the shooter, his calmness and coolness under the most heightened life and death risk that could befall him any second all around him in his ridiculously simple running and walking away escape plan is so incongruous it's almost unbelievable.
Just my 2 cents worth.
Yeah..... we're not talking about an anti-Castro Cuban trained to assassinate Fidel, or a mafia hit man, or an assassin for hire from Marseille, or a military trained assassin, etc. but a hypothesized guy with a junk weapon and no experience or training other than Marine basic training (assumption). So, I agree his probability was probably lower, but the above is a conservative estimate w/o that assumption.
btw - the prob(success) on the deformed bullets should have been
total successes, likewise on the prob(failure) .... sorry about that.
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On 8/29/2020 at 3:41 AM, James DiEugenio said:
In other words, after Crossman failed to do what CBS wanted him to do, they dumped him and kept his failure secret.
With an enlarged target the marksman were allowed to make at least three runs apiece. And they practice to their heart's content before. Roger was not sure how much the target was broadened, but he said it was probably at least twice as much as the real target would have been, and probably even more.
Another lie--which I did not know about at the time-- is what I wrote about the show dumping 17 runs because of mechanical failure. Tink Thompson communicated with one of the producers. He told Tink that was not accurate. Most of those were simply failures of marksmanship, not mechanical. And it was not just 17.
In other words, no one has ever done what the Commission says Oswald did in a real and accurate reconstruction of the crime. And just remember: there is no credible evidence of any practice by Oswald. And every person, including the FBI, said that his alleged rifle was just about inoperable. This is why Craig had to use a completely different model in every way.
CBS was lying and they knew they were lying. And they fired Roger for exposing their lies.
On 8/29/2020 at 3:29 AM, James DiEugenio said:"Why did Rather and Wyckoff have to stoop this low? Because of the results of their rifle firing tests. As the critics of the Warren Report had pointed out, the Commission had used two tests to see if Oswald could have gotten off three shots in the allotted 5.6 seconds revealed in the Warren Commission, through the indications on the Zapruder film. These tests ended up failing to prove Oswald could have performed this feat of marksmanship. What made it worse is that the Commission had used very proficient rifleman to try to duplicate what the Commission said Oswald had done. (See Sylvia Meagher, Accessories After the Fact, p. 108)
So CBS tried again. This time they set up a track with a sled on it to simulate the back of Kennedy’s head. They then elevated a firing point to simulate the sixth floor “sniper’s nest”, released the target on its sled and had a marksman fire his three shots.
In watching the program, a question most naturally arises. CBS had permission to enter the depository building for a significant length of time, because Rather was running around on the sixth floor and down the stairs. In the exterior shots of Rather, it appears that the traffic in Dealey Plaza was roped off. So why didn’t CBS just do the tests right then and there under the exact same circumstances? It would appear to be for two reasons. First, the oak tree would have created an initial obstruction for the first shot. Second, there was a rise on Elm Street that curved the pavement. This was not simulated by CBS.
CBS first tried their experiment in January of 1967. They used a man named Ed Crossman. Crossman had written several books on the subject and many articles. He had a considerable reputation in the field. But his results were not up to snuff—even though CBS had enlarged the target size! And even though they gave him a week to practice with their version of the Mannlicher Carcano rifle. (Again, CBS could not get the actual rifle the Warren Report said was used by Oswald.) In a report filed by Midgley, he related that Crossman never broke 6.25 seconds, and even with the enlarged target, he only got 2 of 3 hits in about 50% of his attempts. Crossman stated that the rifle had a sticky bolt action, and a faulty viewing scope. What the professional sniper did not know is that the actual rifle in evidence was even harder to work. Crossman said that to perform such a feat on the first time out would require a lot of luck.
Since this did not fit the show’s agenda, it was discarded: both the test and the comments. To solve the problem, CBS now decided to call upon an actual football team full of expert riflemen—that is, 11 professional marksmen—who were first allowed to go to an indoor firing range and practice to their heart’s content. Again, this was a major discrepancy with the Warren Report, since there is no such practice time that the Commission could find for Oswald.
The eleven men then took 37 runs at duplicating what Oswald was supposed to have done. There were three instances where 2 out of 3 hits were recorded in 5.6 seconds. The best time was achieved by Howard Donahue—on his third attempt. His first two attempts were complete failures. It is hard to believe, but CBS claimed that their average recorded time was 5.6 seconds. But this did not include the 17 attempts CBS had to throw out because of mechanical failure. And they did not tell the public the surviving average was 1.2 hits out of 3, and with an enlarged target. The truly striking characteristic of these trials was the number of instances where the shooter could not get any result at all. More often than not, once the clip was loaded, the bolt action jammed. The sniper had to realign the target and fire again. According to the Warren Report, that could not have happened with Oswald."
Maybe this should be looked at in terms of probability models.
If we take a simple Bayesian coin-tossing model we could start from the unbiased position that the odds are 50:50 on making the shot in the allotted time.
This is modeled as 1 Success and 1 Failure. The probability of success = 1 / (1+1) = 0.5.
If I am understanding correctly:
Taking the results of the experiment described above and starting with S=1 & F=1 we would get
probability of success = (3+1) / (3 + 34 + 1 + 1) = 0.1025 or about a 10% chance of success.
However, that only looks at one of the experiments that have been run. For the lone nut hypothesis to be true all would have to occur so the probabilities of success have to be multiplied together to get the probability of lone nut success.
Another experimental result that is known is shown in the WC exhibit of MC bullets fired into goat carcasses and human cadaver wrists. I believe there were 3 shown all of which were deformed.
So following the same logic as above
prob(success) = 1 + 0 bullets tested that were not deformed
prob failure = 1 + 3 bullets that were deformed
prob of success = 1 / 5 = 0.2
So after just those 2 experiments the probability of a lone assassin is now
prob(make shot = success) * prob(bullet will not be deformed) = 0.0205 or 1 in 50 successes
The list of other evidence that could be estimated by experiments might include but not be limited to:
* how many times in a number of trials an object (for example a watermelon) suspended from above by strings or below by a spring goes back in the direction of the shooter when shot by a MC rifle & ammo.
* how many times in a shot from the angles between the TSBD window & JFK exits the side of the skull instead of the right front face
* other experiments
Another experimental result that could be included is the Neutron Activation Analysis on the paraffin test from LHO's cheek. The paraffin test was negative for gunpowder residues. So the FBI went to the next step and ran a chemical spectroscopy test. It was also negative. The FBI then sent it off to Oak Ridge Labs for NAA. It turned out negative again. (Note this is a test for any presence and not to be confused with the test for distribution of chemicals that failed to show statistical significance that the bullet fragments all came from the same bullet batch)
The FBI then had 7 agents fire the MC rifle, took their paraffin tests and had NAA tests done. All 7 were positive for gunpowder chemicals.
So that would be a prob(lone nut) = 1 / (1+1+7) = 0.1111 again factoring in the 1:1 50:50 starting probability.
Multiplying that by the previous result gives approximately a 0.002 probability of a lone assassin passing all 3 tests successfully.
Of course any evidence that would make the hypothesis of a loan assassin impossible would reduce the final probability to 0. Back and to the left and the larger bullet fragments being in the back of the skull and smaller in the front in the autopsy x-rays accomplish this for some based on the law of conservation of momentum.
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4 hours ago, Chris Barnard said:
I do have a serving member of the British special forces as a fishing buddy for a few years and discussions about such topics to come up. He is absolutely trained not to freeze in very perilous situations, he is a door kicker.
I had some emergency training years ago -- airplane crashes / flight attendant training.
We were told that until the crash landing one would not know what people would do in such a stressful situation:
* positive panic - move to help others and save as many as possible
* freeze - self explanatory
* negative panic - panic and get in the way, possibly negatively panicking others.
I have no idea if this is valid or not.... but that is what they told us.
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Interesting video.
Just as "experiments can prove a theory" they can also disprove one as the video demonstrates.
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3 hours ago, George Govus said:
Jimmy Dale Gilmore had something to say about that.
So did Jimmy Buffet
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14 minutes ago, Karl Hilliard said:
What particular issue/& section/page is this?
Oh... sorry - that was from:
QuoteThe Dallas Morning News reported that a man had run alongside Kennedy’s limousine a few minutes before the assassination, shouting a warning before being tackled by Secret Service agents from the followup car to Vice President Johnson’s vehicle, three car lengths behind the president.
McBride, Joseph. Into the Nightmare: My Search for the Killers of President John F. Kennedy and Officer J. D. Tippit (p. 524). Hightower Press. Kindle Edition.
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I started reading about the murder of JFK leading up to its 50th anniversary.
Like the account in the Dallas Morning News of the man who tried to warn the motorcade just before it reached Dealey Plaza and was tackled by the Secret Service, this was the other item I read that most surprised me. It refers to the morning of the 22nd in Ft Worth outside the hotel when JFK addressed the crowds.
Quote“ [Norm] Bradford had found a spectacular location for creating an overview photo. “I went to the top of the Hotel Texas and made a shot [poor choice of words, considering the totality of Bradford’s comment] down on the parking lot across the street from the 14 th floor of the Hotel. I’m still wondering why I wasn’t shot off the side of the building at that time.
When I got up there and was shooting down, I just happened to glance around, and all I could see on all the roofs of the buildings around were yellow raincoats with people with high-powered rifles . There I was, standing on the 14 th floor of the Hotel Texas, and not a soul, it was not protected, and it was not sealed off . I was very surprised.” (Richard Trask, Pictures of the Pain: Photography and the Assassination of President Kennedy , p. 329)
Brown Ph.D, Walt. Master Chronology of JFK Assassination Book II: Death (Kindle Locations 858-862). Kindle Edition.
Has anyone ever run across any other information concerning / corroborating this?
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27 minutes ago, Joe Bauer said:
We are covered in ash last three days. Air is so thick and heavy with smoke and ash. Hurts the eyes and lungs. Sky is orange and yellow and hazy grey.
With all that's going on...it seems almost apocalyptic.
I was living in Denver when the huge forest fire south of the city struck. I got up the morning it hit not knowing what it was and thought that the orange hazy sky was an indication that the world was ending. Strangely I didn't feel fear, just curiosity.
Hope it rains.
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On 8/7/2020 at 8:00 AM, Joseph McBride said:
I do mention it in INTO THE NIGHTMARE. I don't have an electronic copy
of the article to post. It used to be online but it no longer is. I'd have
to look through my research files.
I think this is it, it was one of the most surprising things I've read when I started reading books on the murder of JFK.
"The Dallas Morning News reported that a man had run alongside Kennedy’s limousine a few minutes before the assassination, shouting a warning before being tackled by Secret Service agents from the followup car to Vice President Johnson’s vehicle, three car lengths behind the president."
McBride, Joseph. Into the Nightmare: My Search for the Killers of President John F. Kennedy and Officer J. D. Tippit (p. 524). Hightower Press. Kindle Edition.
Carlos Hathcock
in JFK Assassination Debate
Posted
Yes, I agree w you... sorry. I was just trying to say that LHO was not a professional assassin so would have had lower probability of success as you said.