What are the chances?

[Tony Austin]

What are the chances?

Modern day defenders of the Warren Commission look at the assassination of President Kennedy and all of the associated events in a way that excludes the possibility of a conspiracy. They try to put forward explanations for what happened that are rational, plausible and convincing. However, for some events there is only one explanation they can put forward and that is to state that these events simply happened by chance.

For example, the Warren Commission tells us that Oswald was a marxist, a social misfit and a man with a rifle and that he fired a shot at Edwin Walker in April 1963. You could ask how did Oswald manage to get a job working in a tall building overlooking part of the presidential motorcade route, where passing cars could only travel slowly, just a few weeks before Kennedy's visit? Conspiracy theorists can speculate as to which hidden forces might have been at work to place Oswald in the School Book Depository when JFK visited Dallas. The defenders of the Warren Commission can only offer one explanation as to how this event happened and that is to say that it happened by chance. Of course this does not mean that the explanation is not valid as events do occur by chance all the time.

What I find striking about the Kennedy assassination and the associated events is that there were so many different events that can only be explained as a matter of chance if we are to believe the official version. For many of these happenings the probability of the event occurring by chance appears to be very small.

The greater the number of events that can only be explained as occurring by chance, according to the official version, the more suspect the official version looks. At the same time alternative explanations start to look rather more convincing as the combined probability of a number of improbable events occurring together becomes a very small probability indeed.

Here are just two examples:

Firstly, about twenty minutes after Kennedy was assassinated, officer J.D. Tippit was parked in a place where he could watch traffic coming over the Houston Street Viaduct to the Oak Cliff District. He had no orders to be there that morning and he was well out of the district he was supposed to be patrolling. Yet five witnesses saw him there intently watching the traffic. He then suddenly left in haste for some unknown reason.

Tippit could have seen Oswald in a taxi coming over the viaduct at this time. Within the following half an hour Tippit was shot dead and Oswald was blamed for his murder. However, the Warren Commission stated that the two men did not know each other. So, to explain what was going on, defenders of the official version can only account for Tippit's actions by saying that he must have been watching the traffic for some unknown reason that had nothing to do with Oswald. The fact that he could have seen Oswald in a taxi at that particular time was simply a matter of chance.

Secondly, Ruby had no plans to be at Dallas Police Headquarters the morning that he killed Oswald. He arrived at a Post Office near to the Headquarters late that morning and when he came out he decided, on impulse, to walk down a ramp into the basement of Police Headquarters just in time to encounter and shoot Oswald.

Jack Ruby testified that he had to go to the Post Office at Western Union because his employee 'little Lyne'

urgently needed him to send her some money. If she had not required this urgent loan Ruby would not have gone to the Post Office that morning and he would not have ended up going into the Police Headquarters as Oswald was being transferred.

How many Sundays in a year would Ruby get a request from and employee for an urgent loan and how often would such a request necessitate him going to the Post Office on a Sunday? Very rarely, I would imagine, and of all the Sundays that little Lyne could have phoned and asked Ruby to send her some money it just happened to be the Sunday when Oswald was being transferred from Dallas Police Headquarters.

To accept the official point of view we have to believe that this event happened on the Sunday in question simply by chance.

These are two examples but there are many others. I would like to invite other members to let us know what they consider to be interesting events that can only be explained as occurring by chance if we accept the findings of the Warren Commission.

[Guest Stephen Turner]

Sightings of other oswalds, at times when the real Oswald was known to be elsewhere(on a couple of occasions in the Soviet Union)put down to misunderstanding, confusion or plain lies.

That Oswald posed for a series of "backyard photo's"showing the rifle that killed Kennedy, the pistol that killed Tippit, and literature that proves he is a dissafected leftie, a mere 8 months before the assassination.

That he managed to miss Walker, from a few yards away because the bullet,by chance, struck a window mullion. etc etc etc.

[Antti Hynonen]

Tony Austin Posted Today, 10:24 AM

What are the chances?

Modern day defenders of the Warren Commission look at the assassination of President Kennedy and all of the associated events in a way that excludes the possibility of a conspiracy. They try to put forward explanations for what happened that are rational, plausible and convincing. However, for some events there is only one explanation they can put forward and that is to state that these events simply happened by chance.

For example, the Warren Commission tells us that Oswald was a marxist, a social misfit and a man with a rifle and that he fired a shot at Edwin Walker in April 1963. You could ask how did Oswald manage to get a job working in a tall building overlooking part of the presidential motorcade route, where passing cars could only travel slowly, just a few weeks before Kennedy's visit? Conspiracy theorists can speculate as to which hidden forces might have been at work to place Oswald in the School Book Depository when JFK visited Dallas. The defenders of the Warren Commission can only offer one explanation as to how this event happened and that is to say that it happened by chance. Of course this does not mean that the explanation is not valid as events do occur by chance all the time.

What I find striking about the Kennedy assassination and the associated events is that there were so many different events that can only be explained as a matter of chance if we are to believe the official version. For many of these happenings the probability of the event occurring by chance appears to be very small.

The greater the number of events that can only be explained as occurring by chance, according to the official version, the more suspect the official version looks. At the same time alternative explanations start to look rather more convincing as the combined probability of a number of improbable events occurring together becomes a very small probability indeed.

Here are just two examples:

Firstly, about twenty minutes after Kennedy was assassinated, officer J.D. Tippit was parked in a place where he could watch traffic coming over the Houston Street Viaduct to the Oak Cliff District. He had no orders to be there that morning and he was well out of the district he was supposed to be patrolling. Yet five witnesses saw him there intently watching the traffic. He then suddenly left in haste for some unknown reason.

Tippit could have seen Oswald in a taxi coming over the viaduct at this time. Within the following half an hour Tippit was shot dead and Oswald was blamed for his murder. However, the Warren Commission stated that the two men did not know each other. So, to explain what was going on, defenders of the official version can only account for Tippit's actions by saying that he must have been watching the traffic for some unknown reason that had nothing to do with Oswald. The fact that he could have seen Oswald in a taxi at that particular time was simply a matter of chance.

Secondly, Ruby had no plans to be at Dallas Police Headquarters the morning that he killed Oswald. He arrived at a Post Office near to the Headquarters late that morning and when he came out he decided, on impulse, to walk down a ramp into the basement of Police Headquarters just in time to encounter and shoot Oswald.

Jack Ruby testified that he had to go to the Post Office at Western Union because his employee 'little Lyne'

urgently needed him to send her some money. If she had not required this urgent loan Ruby would not have gone to the Post Office that morning and he would not have ended up going into the Police Headquarters as Oswald was being transferred.

How many Sundays in a year would Ruby get a request from and employee for an urgent loan and how often would such a request necessitate him going to the Post Office on a Sunday? Very rarely, I would imagine, and of all the Sundays that little Lyne could have phoned and asked Ruby to send her some money it just happened to be the Sunday when Oswald was being transferred from Dallas Police Headquarters.

To accept the official point of view we have to believe that this event happened on the Sunday in question simply by chance.

These are two examples but there are many others. I would like to invite other members to let us know what they consider to be interesting events that can only be explained as occurring by chance if we accept the findings of the Warren Commission.

Well put. The number of "coincidences" in this case is staggering. Yet the key evidence that would once and for all put all doubts regarding this issue aside, remains hidden or destroyed. Like so many others I'd love to see the true suspects tried and hanged (might be a bit late for that....)

Stephen Turner Posted Today, 10:47 AM

Sightings of other oswalds, at times when the real Oswald was known to be elsewhere(on a couple of occasions in the Soviet Union)put down to misunderstanding, confusion or plain lies.

That Oswald posed for a series of "backyard photo's"showing the rifle that killed Kennedy, the pistol that killed Tippit, and literature that proves he is a dissafected leftie, a mere 8 months before the assassination.

That he managed to miss Walker, from a few yards away because the bullet,by chance, struck a window mullion. etc etc etc.

But Stephen, this is before he had time to practise and become the most skilled shooter of all times. He sure was a straight shot on 11/22/63...

..or then he never shot anyobody.

Edited September 15, 2006 by Antti Hynonen

[J. William King]

One of the things that I've alway found hard to swallow is that LHO supposedly planned this at the very last minute. Now, would you have risked your job by taking a rifle to work one day on the off-chance that you may have the chance to take a shot at the president? How did he know the floor would be deserted at the proper moment? Would he have taken the shot if there had been other people on the floor at the time (as there were on the fifth, fourth, and other floors)? How did he expect to get away if there were people on the same floor? Would he have gone from floor to floor with the rifle at the last minute looking for an empty place to shoot from? Is it possible he already had his pistol with him to take care of any witnesses? And what about that other rifle that was brought to the TSBD just two days before?

It seems to me that if he really expected to do this, he would have found a hotel room, broom closet, deserted office or someplace more private to shoot from.

I don't have the answers to any of these questions, but offer them up as discussion fodder.

JWK

Edited September 15, 2006 by J. William King

[Tony Austin]

Thanks for your interesting comments guys.

Here are some more examples of events that must have happened by pure chance if you accept the conclusions of the Warren Commission:

The assassination of Kennedy

Extra protection to the motorcade was to be provided by the 112th Military Intelligence Group. If they had been operating on the day Kennedy came to Dallas they might have been able to prevent the assassination. However, by chance, this unit was ordered to stand down.

There could have been good quality photographs and TV pictures of the actual assassination. However, by chance the vehicle carrying press and TV cameramen had been put back several places in motorcade so this could not happen.

The murder of Tippit

About twenty minutes after Kennedy was shot, witnesses reported that Tippit was moving from one place to the next as if in a hurry. However, some time after 1pm he was driving his car very slowly down a street. Of all the streets in Oak Cliff area he could be driving along at walking pace it just happened to be the same one that Oswald was walking down.

Of all the hundreds of men in Oak Cliff that could match the vague description put out on police radio after the assassination Tippit just happened to stop one. By chance that man was Lee Harvey Oswald.

The murder of Oswald

Two days after Kennedy was killed, Jack Ruby had to go to the Post Office at Western Union. He came out and then decided to go down into the basement of Police Headquarters. By chance Police Officer Vaughn at the top of the ramp was distracted by a car at the very moment that Ruby wanted to go down the ramp so he was able to get past the officer without being seen.

Ruby then arrived in the basement within seconds of Oswald being brought out. Of all the different times that Ruby could have arrived in the basement that morning, by chance, he arrived at the moment that Oswald was brought out.

There are still lots of other events that can only have occurred by chance if the Warren Commission conclusions are correct. Nobody has mentioned the large group of individuals that had something happen to them in a greater number than you would expect by chance...

[John Dolva]

misnomer

Belin forgets to mention the banging on the door of the interrogation room that stopped the interview and set in motion the end game. Did JR stop off at the PO so someone there could phone ahead to let them know he was on the way?

Edited September 16, 2006 by John Dolva

[Jim Root]

Tony

I to have speculated on the probability of many events surrounding the assassination of JFK. I believe that I have found consistant answers for many of the events but to accept these answers one would have to leave open the possibility of a conspiracy at the highest levels of government to assassinate the President.

For example you stated:

"You could ask how did Oswald manage to get a job working in a tall building overlooking part of the presidential motorcade route, where passing cars could only travel slowly, just a few weeks before Kennedy's visit? Conspiracy theorists can speculate as to which hidden forces might have been at work to place Oswald in the School Book Depository when JFK visited Dallas. The defenders of the Warren Commission can only offer one explanation as to how this event happened and that is to say that it happened by chance. Of course this does not mean that the explanation is not valid as events do occur by chance all the time."

I discover that FBI Agent Hosty, in his testimony before the Warren Commission, stated that he had interviewed Mrs. Paine and didscovered that Oswald was working in the School Book Depository Building and reported this information in the normal manner that he had made a report about Oswald leaving the Dallas area for New Orleans. The difference between this report and the New Orleans report is that the New Orleans report was given an exhibit number and the report about Oswald's work address was never produced or given an exhibit number.

We have learned from the work of Jefferson Morley and John Newman that Hosty's New Orleans note made it to the office of Richard Helms within about a week of being written. We can assume that the "work address" note would have made it to Helms in about the same amount of time. This would put the information about where Oswald was working in the hands of the assisstant director of the CIA sometime around the 11th of November, 1963 (at or arround the same time that the motorcade route was being planned).

The probability of Oswald getting a job at the TSBD Building could well have been a chance occurance. The probability of the motorcade being directed past where Oswald worked (decission made in Washington) with the intention of an assassination event occurring was not, in my opinion, a chance occurance.

That Lee Harvey Oswald was traveling in Europe at the same time that Edwin Walker was traveling in Europe is perhaps a chance occurance. The fact that Lee Harvey Oswald used an extra travel day, showed up in Helsinki (the only embassy in Europe where a visa could be issued to enter Russia within days was located), went to the Soviet Union with First Class Intourist Vouchers in hand and followed the directions of a note that was written by Ambassador Hickerson (not produced until the HSCA) to the tee and that that note from Hickerson to the State Department was written on Oswald's "extra" travel day defies being a simple chance occurances. By chance could Walker have passed the information to Oswald? We will never know for sure because by chance the CIA never produced the flight records that showed how and with whom Oswald traveled from London to Helsinki (although this information was readily available at the time).

That John J. McCloy would pen a note to Edwin Walker some five months before the assassination of JFK could be a chance occurance just as the fact that Walker did at least two specific missions during WWII for John J. McCloy. That the subject of the note would center around the Sylvanus Thayer Award is interesting until one realizes that Nov. 22, 1818 is of great importance in the life of Thayer, the Military Accademy

at West Point and the beginning of military professionalism in America.

That the National Security Agency would assign Frank Rowlett and Meredith Gardner to research Oswald's personal effects for any intelligence connections could have been just by chance. That both of these men were associated with John B. Hurt (a man that shared, at minimum, a name with a person that Lee Harvey Oswald attempted to contact the night before his own death) is stranger than fiction. That the Warren Commission would leave this information out of the Warren Report (The Raleigh Call) is beyond being a simple chance occurance. That John J. McCloy would use information provided by John B. Hurt during some of the most important discussions of WWII again may be just a chance occurrance once again but when you add that Edwin Walker first became associated with the work done by the group that Hurt was involved with in 1935, you begin to question the possibility of simple chance coming into play.

I could go on and on! When we speak of chance occurances the only one who had no chance was Kennedy.

Jim Root