Impossible: The Case Against Lee Harvey Oswald

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #11: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

In fact, this is the minimum criterion to be deployed. From a probability assessment perspective, the correct procedure is to actually multiply the confidence level of the elements to arrive at the ultimate confidence level of the proposition. Thus, the Supreme Court directive would posit a necessary, but not a sufficient condition. This point will be discussed at length further in this book when we analyze Element One of Proposition One in detail.

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #12: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

With this critical protocol of due process in mind, let us look at the factual elements comprising Proposition One.

PROPOSITION ONE

There was one and only one gunman in Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963, and that gunman was neither aided nor abetted by any person or group.

ELEMENT ONE

Exactly three shots were fired from the sixth-floor southeast window of the Texas School Book Depository at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963 — no more, no less — and the three shells found on the floor of the Depository — in the possession of the Warren Commission — were fired from Lee Harvey Oswald’s rifle, to the exclusion of all other weapons in the world.

ELEMENT TWO

All of the shots fired at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963 were fired from the sixth-floor southeast window of the Texas School Book Depository, and from no other location.

ELEMENT THREE

Lee Harvey Oswald was the only person on the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository at 12:30 p.m. on November 22, 1963.

ELEMENT FOUR

The shots fired at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963 were fired from no other weapons besides Lee Harvey Oswald’s Mannlicher-Carcano.

ELEMENT FIVE

A rifleman could plausibly have fired 3 separate shots from the Mannlicher-Carcano within the elapsed time of the shooting and corresponding with the keyframes of the Zapruder film.

ELEMENT SIX

There was one and only one bullet which struck Governor Connally, and that bullet (identified as CE 399) first passed through the body of President Kennedy.

Remember, these factual elements are all necessary — they must be true for the proposition to be true. For most, the necessity of these elements will be obvious, but there is no harm in a little analytical redundancy to achieve clarity.

Edited June 11, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #13: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT ONE

Exactly three shots were fired from the sixth-floor southeast window of the Texas School Book Depository at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963 — no more, no less — and the three shells found on the floor of the Depository — in the possession of the Warren Commission — were fired from Lee Harvey Oswald’s rifle, to the exclusion of all other weapons in the world.

Edited June 11, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Gene Kelly]

Barry,

I've just listened to your spot on Black Op Radio, recorded yesterday. Your 'deductive proof' seems to require that five shots were fired in Dealey Plaza on that day.

You talk of the one-in-a-million chance of flipping an unbiased coin 20 times and getting 20 heads. What are the odds then, in your opinion, of three quarters of witnesses hearing three shots when there were in fact five?

Kind Regards,

Paul.

You do realize there is a HUGE difference between HEARING 3 shots and there actually being more shots fired, right?

And I'm not talking silencers which, on rifles in 1963, were r4eally supression devices, not silencing ones...

In any case.. 3 teams, all with Collins Radios..

FIRE is spoken into the radio

3 shooters fire at the same time

1 SOUND = 3 SHOTS

A FLURRY of shells enter the limo....

THREE shots cannot account for all the damage done in DP in those few seconds....

let alone that one bullet can account for what the autopsy said happened to his head and one more for his back and throat...

Why do you suppose Homer McMahon, a photo anlysis EXPERT, would say he saw 6-8 shots from 3 directions... if he didn't? When at the same time the FBI/SS is INSISTING to witnesses and government analysist alike that there was only 3 shots, and there will always only ever be THREE shots..

David:

Your analysis of shots fired, sounds, and later testimony is right on, in my humble opinion. I also agree with Chris Newton's points... going simply upon who "heard" what is a red herring. One shooter (behind) with that alleged weapon does not compute. Ample evidence exists for several teams of sophisticated shooters (Canyon Shot, silencers, simultaneity, sweepers, sabot rounds). The Homer McMahon interview is quite telling. The ambush location and planning (with distractions) is telling. The conflicting eyewitness testimony (and intimidation thereof) is telling. The scarce and embarrasing ballistic evidence is telling. The autopsy and wound dichodemies is telling.

Some day I'll put my finger on the precise logical argument to be made... but in the pursuit of investigative truth, the facts don't always neatly stack up. One draws a box around the possibilities, and eliminates them systematically... especially in the case of something intentionally obsfucated. But back to Barry's post... an interesting approach, "Impossible Case". I plan to read this, because it feels right.

Gene

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #14: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

The Warren Commission stated that only three shots were fired in Dealey Plaza. Indeed, no more than three cartridges were ever claimed to have been found on the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository. However, if there is other evidence that demonstrates that there were more than three shots fired, or evidence that Oswald fired fewer than three shots, then obviously there was more than one gunman, and the proposition is disproven.

Edited June 13, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #15: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

Vincent Bugliosi, in Reclaiming History, agreed with the logic of this line of analysis in his discussion of the assassination of Robert Kennedy, and noted the importance of ancillary evidence in making a determination regarding the number of shots fired, such as additional bullet holes. As he stated in relation to that case (RH Endnotes 551):

[A]ny bullet holes observed in addition to those accounted for. . . would constitute evidence of a second gun being fired.

Bugliosi reiterated the point regarding statements he received on the number of bullets fired (including one from Thomas Noguchi, the coroner of Los Angeles) (RH Endnotes 551):

n the absence of a logical explanation, these statements, by simple arithmetic, add up to too many bullets and therefore, the probability of a second gun.

Edited June 13, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #16: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

He then discussed his conclusion as he stated to the media at the time, first indicating that if he was “forced to the wall” he would conclude that there was no conspiracy because bullet holes could be explained with an alternative hypothesis (even though this contradicts the first statement quoted above), but on the other hand, that that conclusion would not necessarily be the final word (RH Endnotes 551):

If I were forced to the wall, I’d say there was no conspiracy, that the additional bullets and bullet holes can be accounted for by the existence of fragments and ricochets . . . I reiterated that in the absence of official contravening evidence, we were talking about too many bullets for Sirhan to have fired them all.

Edited June 13, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #17: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

While Bugliosi most likely did not believe in a conspiracy in the assassination of Robert Kennedy (notwithstanding his contradictory statements), his central point stands: if the evidence demonstrates that more bullets were fired than could have been fired by the assassin — and there is no plausible alternative explanation or evidence to the contrary — then this would be proof of conspiracy, and one’s beliefs should be modified accordingly.

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #18: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT TWO

All of the shots fired at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963 were fired from the sixth-floor southeast window of the Texas School Book Depository, and from no other location.

The Warren Commission claimed that at the time of the assassination, Oswald was at the sixth floor southeast window of the Texas School Book Depository. Since Oswald could not be in two places at one time, if there were shots fired from another location, the element would positively be disproven, and likewise the Lone Gunman proposition with which it is irrevocably associated.

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #19: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT THREE

Lee Harvey Oswald was the

only

person on the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository at 12:30 p.m. on November 22, 1963.

The Warren Commission claimed that Oswald was the only person on the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository at the time of the assassination. If another person was on the southern side of the sixth floor, this individual could have aided Oswald, and also could have fired the shots. An accomplice = conspiracy.

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #20: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT FOUR

The shots fired at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963 were fired from no other weapons besides Lee Harvey Oswald’s Mannlicher-Carcano.

According to the Warren Commission, Oswald had one and only one weapon, a 40” Mannlicher-Carcano. Even if Oswald had more than one weapon, he would not have had time (and obviously no inclination) to switch back and forth between weapons in the time within which the shots were fired. Accordingly, if there is evidence to show that other weapons besides Oswald’s Mannlicher-Carcano were used, the element would be positively disproven, and so would the proposition.

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #21: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT FIVE

A rifleman could plausibly have fired 3 separate shots from the Mannlicher-Carcano within the elapsed time of the shooting and corresponding with the keyframes of the Zapruder film.

The Mannlicher-Carcano allegedly owned and used by Oswald was not a rapid-fire machine gun. Before a bullet could be fired, the bolt had to be manually operated to place the bullet in the chamber before firing. This could only be done at a certain speed.

The Warren Commission estimated that the rifle could be fired no faster than 2.3 seconds between shots. Accordingly, all the shots that Oswald allegedly made had to be physically possible within the beginning and end of the shooting sequence. Moreover, the Zapruder film shows the relative timings of the shots to President Kennedy and Governor Connally. If Kennedy and Connally were struck by separate bullets faster than the 2.3 seconds, the element, and therefore the proposition, would be positively disproven.

Edited June 19, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #22: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT SIX

There was one and only one bullet which struck Governor Connally, and that bullet (identified as CE 399) first passed through the body of President Kennedy.

The Warren Commission created a concept known as the Single Bullet Theory because it was not physically possible (based on the Zapruder film) for Oswald to make two separate shots in the time frame established by the film. The bullet which ostensibly achieved this feat was allegedly found on a stretcher at Parkland Hospital, and was identified by the Warren Commission as Commission Exhibit 399, abbreviated as CE399. If it can be shown that the Single Bullet Theory is invalid because no bullet passed through the body of President Kennedy, subsequently striking Governor Connally, the proposition would positively be disproven.

The foregoing analysis has demonstrated why these elements of the Proposition One are necessary. Now let’s move to the elements of the Proposition Two.

Edited June 20, 2012 by Barry Krusch

[Thomas Graves]

EXCERPT #21: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

ELEMENT FIVE

A rifleman could plausibly have fired 3 separate shots from the Mannlicher-Carcano within the elapsed time of the shooting and corresponding with the keyframes of the Zapruder film.

The Mannlicher-Carcano allegedly owned and used by Oswald was not a rapid-fire machine gun. Before a bullet could be fired, the bolt had to be manually operated to place the bullet in the chamber before firing. This could only be done at a certain speed.

The Warren Commission estimated that the rifle could be fired no faster than 2.3 seconds between shots. Accordingly, all the shots that Oswald allegedly made had to be physically possible within the beginning and end of the shooting sequence. Moreover, the Zapruder film shows the relative timings of the shots to President Kennedy and Governor Connally. If Kennedy and Connally were struck by separate bullets faster than the 2.3 seconds, the element, and therefore the proposition, would be positively disproven.

The first round was (obviously) already chambered before the firing began.

Therefore:

Time elapsed for the firing of 1st round: 0.00 seconds.

2.3 seconds was required to eject the 1st round's casing and to chamber the 2nd round, and to fire it. Total elapsed time so far is only 2.3 seconds.

Another 2.3 seconds was required to eject the second round's casing and to chamber the 3rd round and to fire it.

Total elapsed time required to fire all three rounds: 4.6 seconds.

The "problem" is the apparent "grouped" timing of the 2nd and 3rd shots and the extra time needed for the re-acquisition of the target between shots 1 and 2, and then again between shots 2 and 3.....

--Tommy

Edited June 20, 2012 by Thomas Graves

[Barry Krusch]

EXCERPT #23: FROM IMPOSSIBLE: THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD, VOLUME ONE, CHAPTER 8, "ELEMENTS OF THE CASE AGAINST LEE HARVEY OSWALD"

PROPOSITION TWO

Lee Harvey Oswald was the lone gunman in Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963.

ELEMENT ONE

The key evidence in the case actually connects Lee Harvey Oswald to the assassination.

ELEMENT TWO

Lee Harvey Oswald, at the time of the assassination, was present at the window from which it was alleged that the shots were fired (the sixth floor of the southeast window of the Texas School Book Depository), and the weapon purported to be Oswald’s Mannlicher-Carcano 6.5 mm Italian rifle was in Oswald’s possession at the time it was fired.

ELEMENT THREE

A rifleman of Lee Harvey Oswald’s capabilities could plausibly have fired 3 separate shots using the Mannlicher-Carcano within the elapsed time of the shooting and with the requisite accuracy required.

ELEMENT FOUR

Lee Harvey Oswald was not framed for the murder of President John F. Kennedy.

Edited June 21, 2012 by Barry Krusch