Dealey Plaza Witness Survey

[Mark Tyler]

I've become quite interested in the witness statements from Royce Skelton and Virgie Baker.  They both remarked that something bounced off the road to the south of the Presidential limo at the time of the first shot.  Of particular interest is Baker whose position can be known fairly accurately thanks to her being in the Wiegman, Bell, and Towner films.  Several people have already identified her position here, which I agree with:

Baker identified the bullet impact area in her Warren Commission testimony at (2) on this map:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh16/pdf/WH16_CE_354.pdf

I put these positions into my animation and was able to deduce when she was able to see this area.  Interestingly it was only visible for about 2 seconds from Z175 to Z215.  Before and after this time the cars blocked her view:

In other words the first shot must have been after Z175 and before Z215 (give or take a few frames for margin of error).  This ties in very neatly with Gloria Calvery and Karen Westbrook who said that the limo was in front of them when the first shot was fired which was circa Z200 as per this frame:

John Connally also mentioned he heard the first shot 2 seconds before he was hit:

He is seemingly hit at Z225 of the Zapruder film, so 2 seconds before this is Z188.  Then there is the noticeable blurring of the Zapruder film Z190-Z210, which is consistent with a startle reaction to an unexpected gunshot noise.  Finally we have the Willis 5 photo which was taken at Z202, which he said was taken as a reflex reaction to the first shot.

This all is consistent with the first shot being fired around Z180-Z190, and I'm struggling to think of a reason to discount it.  One witness can easily be mistaken but when so many people independently report evidence consistent with the same half of a second I feel obliged to accept it all at face value.

With two shots fired in two seconds at Z185 and Z220 it is impossible for the gun in the TSBD to have fired both: there must have been a second gun!

[John Butler]

55 minutes ago, Mark Tyler said:

I've become quite interested in the witness statements from Royce Skelton and Virgie Baker.

Hi Mark,

You haven't posted in a while.  Glad to see you back with your simulation.  Although, I have argued against a thing or two in your work, overall I find it admirable.  A couple of things here:

1.     Royce Skelton (on top of the triple overpass), November 22, 1963: “We saw the motorcade come around the corner and I heard something which I thought was fireworks.” [Sheriff’s Department affidavit: 19H496]

2.     Virgie Baker- FBI Report 11 25 63- “…went out the south door of Texas School Book Depository to watch the motor cade pass.  She was standing across the street immediately in front of this building…She observed President KENNEDY’S pass her point of observation and almost immediately thereafter her 3 explosions.  Immediately thereafter is in front of the TSBD.

These are two of 105 witnesses that most say the same thing.  There are a several oddball witnesses that say they heard shooting while the p. limo was on Main Street, or that the president was shot in the head in the intersection turn, or basically things that most people won't believe.

Chris Bristow has done amazingly good work on the hole in the p. limo windshield.  He lines up the trajectory from the president's throat wound to the windshield hole to the South Knoll parking lot.  You may want to check that out.  He puts the shot at Z frame 225.  I think earlier and would like to see the same calculations for Z 160, Z 133, and now since you mentioned it Z 190.  Z 190 that is in accord with your thinking.

Secondly,

This photo is for the learned, those who have studied this in detail.  However, folks like me don't have a clue as to what the numbers and letters mean.  Can you provide information on what these numbers and letters mean?

Thanks,

 

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by John Butler

[John Butler]

1 hour ago, John Butler said:

Chris Bristow has done amazingly good work on the hole in the p. limo windshield.  He lines up the trajectory from the president's throat wound to the windshield hole to the South Knoll parking lot.  You may want to check that out.  He puts the shot at Z frame 225.  I think earlier and would like to see the same calculations for Z 160, Z 133, and now since you mentioned it Z 190.  Z 190 that is in accord with your thinking.

Not mentioned above is Chris' reasoning that the trajectory of the shot is at an angle of 15 degrees.  Here is my humble attempt to draw 15 degree angles for the p. limo to be in front of the TSBD.  This needs to be checked.  

This is pretty much what I thought if you move the p.limo/throat/windshield shot back up the street from Z frame 225 to an earlier frame such as Z 160 and whatever would match the Elm/Houston intersection and one that covers the front of the TSBD, you would have an area that covers the Triple Underpass.

Well, Well, Well.... Chauncy Holt shooting from a Triple Underpass boxcar may not be as a wild-eyed speculation as one would think.   Now, If I am not wrong, there is a tad, I say a tad, of factual evidence to support claims like that. 
 

*don't pay attention to this below.  It is something this stupid editor won't let me delete!!!

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by John Butler

[Mark Tyler]

4 hours ago, John Butler said:

Hi Mark,

You haven't posted in a while.  Glad to see you back with your simulation.  Although, I have argued against a thing or two in your work, overall I find it admirable.  A couple of things here:

1.     Royce Skelton (on top of the triple overpass), November 22, 1963: “We saw the motorcade come around the corner and I heard something which I thought was fireworks.” [Sheriff’s Department affidavit: 19H496]

This statement from Skelton is correct but somewhat vague in detail.  Helpfully he gave more info when he was interviewed by the FBI a few weeks later:

"Mr. Skelton noticed that as an open limousine turned on Elm Street, it had moved approximately one hundred feet at which time he noticed dust spray up from the street in front of the car on the driver’s side. This dust spray came from the direction of the Texas School Book Depository building."

https://www.history-matters.com/analysis/witness/witnessMap/documents/wcd/wcd_0087a.gif

What I find fascinating about this statement is that if the Z180-Z190 shot came from the TSBD, and hit the road then this proves that the shot that hit the victims Z220-Z230 must have come from another location as the TSBD gun couldn't be operated that quickly.

The most important aspect of me comparing Skelton and Baker is that they see the same event but from a completely different angle which helps us confirm things.  To be honest, if it was just one witness saying this I wouldn't be certain whether it really happened as described, but these two people were hundreds of feet apart so I feel we can accept this as fact.  The animation proves that there was a gap between the cars at that point so there is nothing to stop Baker seeing what she claims.  With nothing contradicting what either witness says I feel it's safe to say that the first shot hit the road.

 

[Mark Tyler]

4 hours ago, John Butler said:

2.     Virgie Baker- FBI Report 11 25 63- “…went out the south door of Texas School Book Depository to watch the motor cade pass.  She was standing across the street immediately in front of this building…She observed President KENNEDY’S pass her point of observation and almost immediately thereafter her 3 explosions.  Immediately thereafter is in front of the TSBD.

Baker gave a clearer account of how far the car had passed her position in her 1964 interview:

Mr. LIEBELER. Can you tell me approximately how far down the street it had gone when you heard the first shot?
Mrs. BAKER. I don’t know exactly---I could still see the back of the car---I can’t judge distance so I really couldn’t tell you.
Mr. LIEBELER. It hadn’t gone out of sight in your opinion?
Mrs. BAKER. No, sir. 
Mr. LIEBELER. Could you still see the President?
Mrs. BAKER. Not too well.
Mr. LIEBELER. There is a gradual curve on Elm Street and the car had already started slightly into the curve by the time it had gone by you?
Mrs. BAKER. Yes.

This is consistent with Z180-Z200 in the animation frame above as the car would indeed have started to curve around Elm Street and go down the hill, with her looking at the back of the cars.

[Mark Tyler]

4 hours ago, John Butler said:

This photo is for the learned, those who have studied this in detail.  However, folks like me don't have a clue as to what the numbers and letters mean.  Can you provide information on what these numbers and letters mean?

Thanks,

The numbers seem to come from different witness interviews.  For example (4), (A), (1) were used to help locate the policemen on the corner of Elm/Houston: Joe Marshall Smith, Edgar Smith, and Welcome Barnett.

(5) is where JM Smith said he ran soon after the shooting:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/pdf/WH7_JoeSmith.pdf

(7) is referenced in the Edgar Smith interview (he said the shots came from the concrete structure to the north, i.e. the pergola):

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/pdf/WH7_EdgarSmith.pdf

(1) is reference in the Welcome Barnett interview:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/pdf/WH7_Barnett.pdf

[John Butler]

17 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

This statement from Skelton is correct but somewhat vague in detail.  Helpfully he gave more info when he was interviewed by the FBI a few weeks later:

I prefer first day witness statements made at the Sheriff's Office or the Dallas Police.  Later statements, particularly if they change what was said earlier, in IMO suffer from FBI or Secret Service corruption, intimidation, and witness tampering.

A blatant example is the 4 statements of Bonnie Ray Williams.  Virgie Baker's change in testimony, in IMO, reflects FBI witness tampering.

Skelton's statement is not at all vague.  He heard firecrackers (shooting) when the p. limo turned into the intersection in front of the TSBD.  

Where I fault Skelton and the other railroad workers is they were not on the railroad bridge as the p. limo approached as seen in the phony Altgens 7 photo.  My best guess they were off to the side just off the railroad bridge.  There are 5 film frames and photos showing they were not on the bridge contrary to Altgens 7.

They lied to Mark Lane and he ate it up with filmed interviews.  My speculation is these men were told by their employers, the owners of the railroad yards and trains, to make those statements of seeing smoke on the Grassy Knoll to divert attention away from the railroad bridge, any train on the bridge, and the one in the railroad yards filmed by Hughes..

[Mark Tyler]

9 hours ago, John Butler said:

I prefer first day witness statements made at the Sheriff's Office or the Dallas Police.  Later statements, particularly if they change what was said earlier, in IMO suffer from FBI or Secret Service corruption, intimidation, and witness tampering.

For the work that I have done I always favour the earlier statements, but if more details are given later such as in 1964 then I accept those details as long as they aren't contradicted elsewhere by stronger evidence.

9 hours ago, John Butler said:

A blatant example is the 4 statements of Bonnie Ray Williams.  Virgie Baker's change in testimony, in IMO, reflects FBI witness tampering.

Skelton's statement is not at all vague.  He heard firecrackers (shooting) when the p. limo turned into the intersection in front of the TSBD.  

When evaluating evidence I'm always looking for things that witnesses say that can nail down exactly the time when shots were fired.  For example Mary Moorman said that the first shot she heard was exactly at the time she took her photo at Z315.  This means she must have missed the earlier shots and so gives us useful information about how easy it is for witnesses to miss things during a noisy parade (hence my interest in corroborating multiple witness statements to determine all shot events).  When Skelton said the limo turned the corner and he heard shots this is not as clear as when he said the car had turned the corner and then travelled 100 feet before the shooting started.  Technically both statements are consistent but the later one is clearer which is why I find it more useful in understanding events.  The only time I disregard a later statement from a witness is if it is contradicted by other stronger evidence.

9 hours ago, John Butler said:

Where I fault Skelton and the other railroad workers is they were not on the railroad bridge as the p. limo approached as seen in the phony Altgens 7 photo.  My best guess they were off to the side just off the railroad bridge.  There are 5 film frames and photos showing they were not on the bridge contrary to Altgens 7.

They lied to Mark Lane and he ate it up with filmed interviews.  My speculation is these men were told by their employers, the owners of the railroad yards and trains, to make those statements of seeing smoke on the Grassy Knoll to divert attention away from the railroad bridge, any train on the bridge, and the one in the railroad yards filmed by Hughes..

The behaviour of the interviewer is crucial in determining the value of the witness statements.  The Warren Commission staff and Mark Lane did some very good interviews back in the 1960's, but they were also responsible for some slightly one sided affairs that merely pushed a preconceived agenda.