Taking seriously Oswald's front steps alibi claim

[Greg Doudna]

Apart from a disputable interpretation of the scoop-neckline-appearing neckline as the neckline of a dress instead of as an old gray wool-like or flannel-like jacket worn loosely over a white T-shirt with sleeves rolled up there is no other positive argument it is a woman, and the receding hairline at the temple says it is a man. And the main reason everyone has supposed the “fat” idea was an optical illusion all along, after realization of the head of the dark-clothed woman in front of the figure up to about mid-chest level.

But ideas once established persist even when underlying reasons which gave rise to them are known and acknowledged by persons to have been in error. Many studies on this phenomenon. It’s called “persistence of belief”. Google that term and there is a rich literature of studies on that phenomenon in human psychology.

In this case, persistence of belief the figure is fat even (for some) following conscious acknowledgement of removal of the reason that was supposed in the first place.

All the other TSBD women’s locations are known at other locations than the figure’s. The argument for possibility comes down to either Pauline Sanders, at the far east end of the steps, having moved over to the other end to the west end of the steps, or Sarah Stanton, immediately to Frazier’s left (viewer’s right), having moved over to Frazier’s right.

But it wasn’t Sarah Stanton. Buell Frazier said the extremely heavyset Sarah was to his left and talked with her; she is visible to Frazier’s left as the very broad, extremely wide figure to the left of Frazier in Darnell where Frazier and others said she was; and Frazier who is living today says he does not know who Prayer Man was and does not identify the figure as Sarah Stanton which he would be expected to do so if it were her (that argument does not apply equally to Oswald however unless it is certain Frazier was aware at the time of Oswald’s presence on the steps which he says he was not and it is believable that he was not).

As for could be a non-TSBD unidentified person, hypothetically possible but no one else there was, and why then all the other agreements with Oswald by coincidence.

Frazier has repeatedly said in recent years he doesn’t know who Prayer Man was, even though the figure is seen in the photo in the shadow to Frazier’s right, consistent with Frazier literally did not notice.

Frazier said it is not Oswald, but according to his explanation he did not say that negative rejection of an Oswald identification was on grounds of he would have noticed, but on grounds of the person looked to him too fat in the photo to be Oswald, ie a photo interpretation conclusion. From the optical illusion.

The critical and significant point about Frazier’s comments expressing absolute lack of personal memory or knowledge of who that was that day near him, is that even he cannot identify that figure as someone other than Oswald.

Edited yesterday at 02:23 PM by Greg Doudna

[Greg Doudna]

BUELL FRAZIER ON WHAT OSWALD WAS WEARING THAT DAY

Mr. BALL - On that day you did notice one article of clothing, that is, he had a jacket? 
Mr. FRAZIER - Yes, sir. 
Mr. BALL - What color was the jacket? 
Mr. FRAZIER - It was a gray, more or less flannel, wool-looking type of jacket that I had seen him wear and that is the type of jacket he had on that morning. 

(...)

Mr. BALL - Did he have a jacket or coat on him? 
Mr. FRAZIER - Yes, sir. 
Mr. BALL - What kind of a jacket or coat did he have? 
Mr. FRAZIER - That, you know, like I say gray jacket. 
Mr. BALL - That same gray jacket? 
Mr. FRAZIER - Yes, sir. Now, I can be frank with you, I had seen him wear that jacket several times, because it is cool type like when you keep a jacket on all day, if you are working on outside or something like that, you wouldn't go outside with just a plain shirt on.  

(...)

Mr. FRAZIER - Some boys hang their jackets up in there in that little domino room where they were going to play dominoes. But here lately, I have been wondering, you know, most of us wear our jackets, what we have on, because if you are going out there on a dock in the cold air we usually keep them on. 

(Earlier)

Mr. BALL - Did you ever see Lee Oswald wear this jacket [CE 163, blue]? 
Mr. FRAZIER - No, sir; I don't believe I have. Mr. BALL. Commission Exhibit No. 162 [off-white light tan], which can be described for the record as a gray jacket with zipper, have you seen Lee Oswald wear this jacket? Mr. FRAZIER. No, sir; I haven't.

 

OTHER TSBD FELLOW EMPLOYEES OF OSWALD

Givens: "He never changed clothes the whole time he worked there, and he would wear a grey looking jacket." (WC testimony)

Williams: "[T]o the best of his recollection, Lee Harvey Oswald was wearing a grey corduroy pair of pants and a greyish looking sport shirt with long sleeves on November 22, 1963." (FBI, 12/5/63)

[Greg Doudna]

How could Buell Frazier possibly not have noticed when Oswald quietly slipped in through the glass door behind and came out to the west of Frazier and stood quietly in shadow against the west wall, was there for about 35 seconds at the height of adrenalin stress and focus of eyes and attention of those on the steps over hearing shots and a woman out front running and screaming "they shot him!", before quietly slipping back into the building again, not a word spoken to anyone?

Mr. BALL - In the picture that would show you about there, would it? 
Mr. FRAZIER - Yes, sir; you can see, just see, the top, about the top rail there, was standing right in there. 
Mr. BALL - Right in there? 
Mr. FRAZIER - To be frank with you, I say, shadow from the roof there knocked the sun from out our eyes, you wouldn't have any glare in the eyes standing there.  

Edited yesterday at 01:09 PM by Greg Doudna

[Paul Bacon]

5 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

Mr. FRAZIER - To be frank with you, I say, shadow from the roof there knocked the sun from out our eyes, you wouldn't have any glare in the eyes standing there. 

This, right here, adds to the many reasons why Oswald was not noticed by people on the landing.  How hard is it to see into shadow after having been looking at an extremely bright scene?  We've all experienced that.

[Roger Odisio]

9 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

 

It is easy to see why  both the CIA and the U.S. government would both INDEPENDENTLY want to set Oswald up.

The CIA set Oswald up because they needed someone along the motorcade route to be blamed for the assassination. That way the investigation would be deflected from the real perps toward Oswald. And -- thanks to the Mexico City incident -- toward Cuba and Russia.

The U.S. government bought the ruse, only later to discover that Oswald was telling the truth when he said that he  was a patsy. By then, the government was so heavily invested in that (incorrect) conclusion that they decided to go with it in order to cover up the communist conspiracy angle.

This effectively made the government complicit in making Oswald a patsy.

 

I agree with much of your take here, Sandy.  But am puzzled by the dichotomy you establish between the perps, i.e., the planners of the murder, and the government.  Kennedy was murdered by the top echelons of his own government.  See Salandria. The official investigation of the murder, the WC, was controlled by those planners.

[Greg Doudna]

54 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said:

This, right here, adds to the many reasons why Oswald was not noticed by people on the landing.  How hard is it to see into shadow after having been looking at an extremely bright scene?  We've all experienced that.

Exactly! Off to the side in shadow, late arrival and short duration of ca 35 seconds, and not speaking to anyone. Very believable no one on the steps, blinded by looking into sunlight, would have known he had been there. 

Only a minority of TSBD employees even knew Oswald to recognize him, and Oswald was so unremarkable appearing that one witness who met Oswald just after he went back in behind the glass doors and was in that vestibule, reporter Pierce Allman—he didn’t remember meeting anyone matching a photograph of Oswald and he met him there!

I am convinced from reconstruction of Allman’s movements that Allman arrived before Oswald left the front steps to go up to the second floor, not after, and I believe Allman running toward the front steps may be visible in the Darnell and Couch film clips at ca 25-30 seconds after the final shot just before Allman arrived. Allman asked a man standing there to Allman’s left in the vestibule as Allman rushed in, Allman said, to direct him to a phone and Oswald pointed to a phone inside, apparently without speaking (sounds like Oswald). The identification of that man as Oswald is based on Oswald in his final interrogation telling of an incident of a man with a crewcut at the front steps asking him to direct him to a phone, and Pierce Allman, whose encounter asking a man for a phone was witnessed by his reporter partner as well as himself, had a crewcut.

The Secret Service put those two stories together (Oswald’s, and Allman’s) and concluded it was a match, that the man who pointed Allman to a phone had been Oswald.

Edited yesterday at 02:14 PM by Greg Doudna

[Paul Bacon]

Just so you know Greg, your arguments throughout this thread have been completely persuasive--I would think many on this forum, feel as I do.  For all of the reasons you have argued in the thread, and the rationale for it, it is most likely that Oswald is PrayerMan.

I think Pat and DVP's rebuttals cannot hold water.  They are stretching, and, I think, are lacking in common sense.

Edited yesterday at 02:17 PM by Paul Bacon
add word

[Greg Doudna]

1 minute ago, Paul Bacon said:

Just so you know Greg, your arguments throughout this thread have been completely persuasive--I would think many on this forum, feel as I do.  For all of the reasons you have argued in the thread, and the rationale for it, it is most likely that Oswald is PrayerMan.

I think Pat and DVP's rebuttals cannot hold water.  They are stretching, and, I think, are lacking in common sense.

Thank you Paul.

[Roger Odisio]

12 hours ago, Greg Doudna said:

Nonsense. Fritz, Bookhout, and Hosty did not do Oswald any favor by failing to disclose his alibi claim.

Oswald debatably missed an opportunity. Lots of wouldas and shouldas sometimes. Oswald showed no sign of making his defense or trying his case to reporters on either Tippit or JFK (JFK which he seems not to have been aware he was even being accused of until near midnight Friday), apart from strenuously claiming he was not guilty, claiming he was a patsy, and claiming he was not being told what was going on. 

It has been argued, and there is an argument, that Oswald could have been slipped word to hang tight, intervention would be happening to get him out of the trouble he was in (in light of previous history of a covert nature with US agencies). That is one way of accounting for Oswald's telling Marina "don't worry, everything's gonna be OK, now tell me about Junie's shoes...". 

Another point: was Oswald aware that going out to see the parade was an alibi claim? Or was it just answering a question among many others not recognized as of significance until--until when would that change, exactly? 

US Postal Inspector Holmes:

"As the questioning gradually led up to Kennedy, he just acted like he couldn't imagine anybody thinking that he might have shot Kennedy. He never worried about going to jail or being put to death. He just denied that he ever shot the President and acted like it never entered his head that it was possible that you could charge him with shooting the President." (in Sneed, No More Silence, 361)

Don't talk to the cops without first seeing a lawyer and having one present is conventional wisdom for a reason.  Anything you say may be used against you. Oswald had been continually asking for a lawyer, but he violated that principle in his first interrogation.

Why?   Early on in one of his trips thru the hallway, he declares "I don't know what this is all about."  When asked if he killed the president, he says "No, they're taking me in because of the fact that I lived in the Soviet Union". But he ends that episode by blurting "I'm just a patsy", indicating he has at least a rudimentary understanding that they think he was involved in the murder. It's likely, however, that at that point he did not feel threatened about being charged with the JFK murder.  That is indicated by your quote from postal inspector Holmes.

https://www.google.com/search?q=i'm+just+a+patsy&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS926US927&oq=I'm+just+a+patsy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgAEAAYgAQyBwgAEAAYgAQyBwgBEAAYgAQyBwgCEAAYgAQyCAgDEAAYFhgeMgsIBBAAGBYYHhjHAzIICAUQABgWGB4yCggGEAAYgAQYogTSAQkxMDkxNmowajeoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:f06fa9af,vid:NR7JJHqD7_c,st:0.

We don't have a tape of the first interrogation.  We don't know the sequence of questions asked.  However, if Oswald was asked where he was when Kennedy was murdered he must have taken that as a request for his alibi.

He didn't know he would be murdered less than 2 days later.  Before he could tell his alibi to a lawyer.  We're lucky he violated that conventional wisdom.

 

[Greg Doudna]

Well many TSBD employees were asked where they were and what they heard and saw when the president passed by, however he might have realized it was an alibi issue even if they were asking everyone the “where were you?” question.

One possibility is when he told them he was on the first floor and had (of course!) gone out to see the parade, they immediately want names of who was there or might have seen him, whether or not they told him why. They intended to check that out. 

Then he gave them names, Shelley, Frazier, Lovelady. Those were standing the nearest to him when he was out there. Those would be the ones he would likely name, I can’t think of any other obvious names he might have mentioned, possibly Molina if he noticed him at the other end of the steps but unlikely Molina would have seen him. Possibly Williams if he saw him at the back. I doubt if Oswald knew Sarah Stanton to Frazier’s left.

But the problem is in an alibi issue it’s not good enough for him to say he was there, he needs someone who saw him there. They would ask him, did you speak to anyone out front? No. Did any of these three names standing near you see you? (e.g. Shelley, Frazier, or Lovelady) Answer: Well I don’t know, I’m not sure if they did. (Interrogators thinking to themselves, convinced he’s lying from the getgo, well that’s convenient.) 

But they check out every name Oswald gave them, probably asking in such way that the real question of interest, the steps, is not realized by the three questioned. Just did you see Oswald that morning, when did you last see him, were you out front watching the parade, who was near you, OK, OK, thanks. 

Now imagine they get back to Oswald about that. Mr. Oswald, we checked those three names you gave and none of them say they saw you there.

Oswald now gives them another possible person who could vouch for him if they could find him, the man who asked him to direct him to a phone. Was Oswald telling that as an attempt to come up with someone who could verify he was there when he said he was? (We haven’t realized it because it was interpreted as safely 3 minutes later?) 

If so that one did check out, the Secret Service found Pierce Allman. But it did Oswald no good. First, by then Oswald was dead, there would be no trial. Second, Allman said he couldn’t say who it was, he didn’t remember (even though it really was Oswald). And third, the Secret Service decided from the timeline of their theory of the case it had to be 3 minutes (when actually it was at ca 40 seconds), and Allman got that from the Secret Service. So although that possible alibi claim of a witness of Oswald was found and did check out, by re-timing it its force was lost. Maybe. 

Edited 23 hours ago by Greg Doudna

[Sandy Larsen]

6 hours ago, Benjamin Cole said:

 

IMHO, LHO wittingly participated in what he thought was a false flag event to be blamed on Castro. Likely, LHO fired and missed intentionally (interestingly, a replay of the Walker shooting). 

 

 

I just can't see any intelligent person willing to put theirself in such a precarious position.

 

[Sandy Larsen]

7 hours ago, Benjamin Cole said:

LHO appeared to have owned the rifle found in TSBD6 and not one witness ever said they saw LHO when shots rang out. 

 

There are a number of things indicating that the rifle wasn't  Oswald's and that Oswald didn't fire it. You really should familiarize yourself with these things.

 

7 hours ago, Benjamin Cole said:

LHO, post-JFKA immediately went home and armed himself in the aftermath of the JFKA, went to watch movies (?), and drew his gun when approached by DPD'ers.

 

I believe that the CIA perps instructed Oswald to meet someone at the theater at a specific time, thus ensuring he could be found and arrested by the police shortly after the assassination.

I believe there is reason to believe that the gun was planted by the officer who confronted Oswald. I don't know if this is credible because I haven't studied it.

 

[Jonathan Cohen]

9 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

I believe there is reason to believe that the gun was planted by the officer who confronted Oswald. I don't know if this is credible because I haven't studied it.

The notion of "believing something despite not knowing if it's credible and not studying it" speaks volumes.

[Roger Odisio]

1 hour ago, Greg Doudna said:

Well many TSBD employees were asked where they were and what they heard and saw when the president passed by, however he might have realized it was an alibi issue even if they were asking everyone the “where were you?” question.

One possibility is when he told them he was on the first floor and had (of course!) gone out to see the parade, they immediately want names of who was there or might have seen him, whether or not they told him why. They intended to check that out. 

Then he gave them names, Shelley, Frazier, Lovelady. Those were standing the nearest to him when he was out there. Those would be the ones he would likely name, I can’t think of any other obvious names he might have mentioned, possibly Molina if he noticed him at the other end of the steps but unlikely Molina would have seen him. Possibly Williams if he saw him at the back. I doubt if Oswald knew Sarah Stanton to Frazier’s left.

But the problem is in an alibi issue it’s not good enough for him to say he was there, he needs someone who saw him there. They would ask him, did you speak to anyone out front? No. Did any of these three names standing near you see you? (e.g. Shelley, Frazier, or Lovelady) Answer: Well I don’t know, I’m not sure if they did. (Interrogators thinking to themselves, convinced he’s lying from the getgo, well that’s convenient.) 

But they check out every name Oswald gave them, probably asking in such way that the real question of interest, the steps, is not realized by the three questioned. Just did you see Oswald that morning, when did you last see him, were you out front watching the parade, who was near you, OK, OK, thanks. 

Now imagine they get back to Oswald about that. Mr. Oswald, we checked those three names you gave and none of them say they saw you there.

Oswald now gives them another possible person who could vouch for him if they could find him, the man who asked him to direct him to a phone. Was Oswald telling that as an attempt to come up with someone who could verify he was there when he said he was? (We haven’t realized it because it was interpreted as safely 3 minutes later?) 

If so that one did check out, the Secret Service found Pierce Allman. But it did Oswald no good. First, by then Oswald was dead, there would be no trial. Second, Allman said he couldn’t say who it was, he didn’t remember (even though it really was Oswald). And third, the Secret Service decided from the timeline of their theory of the case it had to be 3 minutes (when actually it was at ca 40 seconds), and Allman got that from the Secret Service. So although that possible alibi claim of a witness of Oswald was found and did check out, by re-timing it its force was lost. Maybe. 

Consider this.  Oswald was the designated patsy as planned before the murder.  Soon after the murder they caught him in the theater (how did they know he was there and why were they looking for him?), roughed him up, and arrested him.  As he said in the hallway that day, he didn't know why he was arrested, but by blurting out he was just a patsy, he sensed they thought he was involved in the murder.  The next day, he said he hadn't been charged with the murder, nobody had said to him yet, in response to another did you kill the president question. 

As he was being led away a reporter said, yes, you have been charged.  It's a brief moment, but the look on Oswald's face indicates, oh dooky!  That may have been the moment he fully realized the trouble he was in.

If Oswald was already the designated patsy, as I believe and he sensed, that first  interrogation was not to find out if he did it.  They knew he didn't.  Rather the questioning was to gather information about his alibi so they could set about destroying as much of it as they could.  As fast as they could, while planning to silence him to eliminate a trial.  They could then frame him by an "official" investigation. 

That was the main purpose of the set of questions you suggest.  Who saw you there?.  Who can verify your story?  We're going to make sure these people don't interfere with the frame.

Of the names you suggest he gave them, that same day they went after Frazier and Lovelady for different purposes. They sat Frazier down and told him he was going to be charged as an accessory to Oswald for the murder if he didn't tell him what they wanted to hear. That night they visited Lovelady with a copy of Altgens 6 to ask if that was him on the front of the steps, because he resembled Oswald.

On the general question of witnesses to Oswald's whereabouts, you must consider the atmosphere that was quickly established after the murder.  Oswald was swiftly designated as the murderer and killed two days later.  Intimidation was everywhere not just used on Frazier.  Who among us would have stepped forward to say they saw Oswald somewhere at the time?

The fourth floor women contradicted the official story.  Vicki Adams was said to be confused, an unreliable witness in the WR, and Dorothy Garner, whose testimony proves Oswald was not on the 6th floor,  and Sandra Styles were ignored, buried until Barry Ernest tracked them down decades later and got their story.  Roger Craig suffered a worse fate. 

In short the lack of witnesses to verify Oswald's alibi tells us nothing about its veracity.

[Jonathan Cohen]

7 minutes ago, Roger Odisio said:

The next day, he said he hadn't been charged with the murder, nobody had said to him yet, in response to another did you kill the president question.

Roger, technically it was the next day because it was at midnight, but you're making it sound like it was a full day after the assassination, which it wasn't.

8 minutes ago, Roger Odisio said:

In short the lack of witnesses to verify Oswald's alibi tells us nothing about its veracity.

That interpretation is no more valid than the notion that, quite simply, nobody said Oswald was in front of the Book Depository or saw him because... he wasn't there.