Chris Davidson

My conversion for 1mph is and always has been 1.47ft per sec.

We're done Butler.

Take a surveying class.

Once you're done with that, come back and explain this distance for everyone.

It should be quite an event.

You were given the pieces to "skin the cat" and you gave it an awful haircut instead.

3 hours ago, John Butler said:

This puts the presidential limousine in almost the exact area of Altgens 5 or as you shown in a Muchmore scene (I believe Muchmore) at the same time the Advance Motorcycle Officer is at Z frame 132.  Once again this is fascinating stuff.  With this statement one can time almost exactly the length of the Zapruder Gap.

 

Actually,  the limo in Altgen's is approx 7.5ft further up Houston St than where it is in the Hughes frame from the previous gif.

Just misses the white lead car because of the camera angle.

Based on this reasoning, the frames 132 and 133 show the Advance Motorcyle Officer in Z frame 132 in about the same position as the presidential limousine in Z frame 133.

The cycle cop at z132 is approx 20ft farther down Elm than JFK's position in the limo at z133.

The red line in each frame goes to the two Ladies in Black.  They are in almost exactly the same positions unless the ladies have moved slightly in Z frame 133.

If we assume this to be true then at 287.5 feet distance between the two divided by the average speed of 9.3 mph / 13.67 feet per sec we have 21.03 seconds.

You say:

“157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec + 7.21 sec = approx 18.71sec at least, ahead of the limo”

Where did I go wrong in my thinking of about 3 seconds?  You seem to have nailed this down well.  Either way is a good estimate in my opinion.

Is the difference in time involved with the 20 ft and -10 feet involved first calculation?

The 10ft difference between starting the turn onto Elm St at the crosswalk (lead white car) and where JFK in the limo is at the beginning of Towner.

The 20ft difference is the farthest distance back I can plot on Houston St knowing the white lead car hasn't made it to that spot yet and where the cycle cop aligns with the signal light post in the background (Stationary Objects) Have to have them for distance measurements.

I guess I will have to give up the Joseph,s estimate of 14 seconds.  And, either go back to my crude estimate and use yours also with perhaps 18-21 seconds for the Zapruder Gap.  18-21 seconds is a good timing of the Gap.

This allows a little more time for various people to get to the SW corner in Z frame 133. 

15 hours ago, John Butler said:

This is interesting work calculating the speed of the presidential vehicle in the turn in the intersection.  It could help in a problem I've always wondered about.  Your analysis would be appreciated if you find this interesting enough to work on.

That is not my work. It is Dale Myers. Instead of using JFK's location within the limo as his measuring marker, he used the driver's side rear tire. When you round the Elm St turn and you're on the inside radius, you're not going to travel as far as if you're on the outside radius.

This is one of the reasons why his frame rate for Towner (8mm camera) was 22.8fps, which is absurd.

I don't think you can sync the Elsie Dorman film with the after the Zapruder Gap Zapruder film, Martin, and Bell.  Elsie said she quit filming when the limousine turned into intersection. 

I don't care who's film it is, there is a common sync point between the two.

This occurs before Zapruder, post gap, and before Martin and Bell film the area.  All this is sort of background. 

No, it is a most important part of syncing films.

What I am really interested in is where is the presidential limousine in Z frame 132 and where is the p. limo in Z frame 133?

Too many variables. Not enough film overlapping/sync points from what I've found.

Your analysis above can greatly help in figuring this out.  Where is the limo on Houston St. in Z 132?  And, where is the limo on Elm in Z 133?

Can help only to a certain extent. Limited by the films themselves.

I think figuring out where the limo in Z 133 is in relation to the SW corner of the TSBD would be helpful and then you could work backward to where the limo is on Houston St. in Z 132.

I know where the limo is at Z133, I pointed it out on one of the previous plat graphics.

I once calculated the time in the Zapruder Gap to be abound 21-22 seconds.  David Josephs explained how he calculated it at 14 seconds and I thought that was a more reasonable effort.  My crude estimate was based on the Advance Motorcycle Officer taking 7 seconds / 18 frames per second to get to frame 132.  That is an average speed for the 7 seconds.  So, I thought the other elements of the motorcade would on the average do about the same in passing through the intersection before Z 133.

Best estimate I can supply is below.

Obviously, one can't do that based on the slowing down of the p. limo in the turn.  You have nicely figured the speed in the turn.  You can see that the limo has not passed the lamppost and the R L Thornton sign.  So, it must be about even with the SW corner of the TSBD.

I've done my own plotting of the Towner film at 18.3 frames per sec and the limo averaged approx 8.3mph throughout the entire film discounting anything more than seven frames for the TSBD splice.

If this is interesting, can you work back from there to where the limo would be on Houston St. in Z 132?  And, tie down where it really is in z 133? 

Best estimate I can supply is below.

 

The cycle cop travels approx 120ft @7.21sec@18.3fps = 11.3mph average.

The best distances I arrive at for the rest are in the graphic.

Since the white car doesn't appear in the last frame of z1-132 (big variable) the limo is at least :

120 + 20 + 157.5 - 10ft overlap = 287.5ft behind the cycle cop at z132 within the graphic.

I don't see a problem with Myers applied average speed to the limo on Houston St at 9.3mph.

Someone can check that if so inclined.

9.3mph = 13.67 ft per sec

157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec + 7.21 sec = approx 18.71sec at least, ahead of the limo.

If there is more detailed info then you can add/subtract what you need to.

Added on edit: Towner film( Myers adding 7 frames at TSBD splice):

(167/18.3 = 9.125sec) +(157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec) = 20.625sec

20.625sec - 18.71 sec = 1.91sec

Difference in Myers frame rate for Towner at 22.8 and 18.3fps over 167 frames = 1.8 sec.

34 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Did he cross the street?

Initially, I thought it possible.

There is a ghost image of someone (dark suit) who appears under the Stemmons sign from Z's perspective.

But, since the ghost image appears at extant z215 about the time of Willis/Betzner similar photos circa z200, the only logical candidate (imo) for the ghost image is:

John Chism.

Can anyone find "bald spot shadow man" in Willis or Betzner?

If there is any interest in other aspects (imo) related to this ghost image, I further expanded on it here:

http://forum.assassinationofjfk.net/index.php/topic/1407-secret-service-and-fbi-made-reenactment-films-why/?p=8995

David Healy's excellent "Technical Aspects of Film Alteration" and Dr.John Costella's expertise along with David Josephs (voluminous mind boggling research) and many others, carry on.

John Butler, there are many ways to "skin a cat",  we choose different methods.

I couldn't find him or his shadow in Altgen's along the curb sides either.

Did he cross the street?

Initially, I thought it possible.

There is a ghost image of someone (dark suit) who appears under the Stemmons sign from Z's perspective.

But, since the ghost image appears at extant z215 about the time of Willis/Betzner similar photos circa z200, the only logical candidate (imo) for the ghost image is:

John Chism.

Can anyone find "bald spot shadow man" in Willis or Betzner?

5 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Which leads to the obvious question: What happened to "Bald Spot Man" aka "Shadowman" in Z?

It's 54ft between Croft and these gentlemen on the same side of the street.

Neither of which strikes me as "bald spot shadow man".

Which leads to the obvious question: What happened to "Bald Spot Man" aka "Shadowman" in Z?

4 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Next, sync Martin with Dorman (close enough-different frame rates) using the girl at the top, heading down the stairs around the corner.

Photoshop doesn't like the Martin film, so I'm supplying a little cleaner version at the link provided, besides the gif.

The last Martin frame in the gif, Jackie red boxed at Z133. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KBbfyTCtsVk35wEQYyP9QTu6ZYz1UAcj/view?usp=sharing

 

 

 

 

 

 

Via process of elimination when we arrive at extant Z133.

Willis was the first to round the concrete structure.

Bald spot man was the second.

Croft was already in position.

We know where Willis and Croft are in extant Z133.

There is another person in Dorman who continues on, who I discovered and believe labeled many years ago as "Shadowman".

It's reasonable to assume this is actually "bald spot man" continuing on, from around the concrete structure.

For many years, we couldn't prove "Shadowman" wasn't Croft because of some missing elements.

Next, sync Martin with Dorman (close enough-different frame rates) using the girl at the top, heading down the stairs around the corner.

Photoshop doesn't like the Martin film, so I'm supplying a little cleaner version at the link provided, besides the gif.

The last Martin frame in the gif, Jackie red boxed at Z133. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KBbfyTCtsVk35wEQYyP9QTu6ZYz1UAcj/view?usp=sharing

2 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

A few more pieces.

Does anybody believe "now" that Robert Croft is bald spot man?

I don't.

 

If bald spot man is neither Willis or Croft, then according to the previous Martin/Bell gifs with Willis #1 leading the way, then Croft is already in or close to his camera position at Z133.

Martin's LOS dictates that Jackie is at approx Station# 3+00.0 (2nd frame in the gif) when JFK is at Station# 2+99.0.

Robert West's plat designation for Station# 3+00.0 provided.

JFK'S position in the limo at Z133 = Station# 2+99.0

A few more pieces.

Does anybody believe "now" that Robert Croft is bald spot man?

I don't.

30 minutes ago, John Butler said:

Mitcham,

Why should I re-read Davidson's post?  I didn't agree with it in the first place. 

I think I will add another content problem is the list of content problems in Z 157.

 

Ray's quote: "In the post above, in answer to your question,  I suggest you re-read Chris Davidson's post where you will see he said "The alteration you are looking for is there, you just have to put the right pieces together."

Butler's response above that he doesn't agree with it in the first place.

Your response would lead me to believe that you don't believe in zfilm alteration.

Which is exactly how you are trying to portray the "gangs" beliefs.

6 hours ago, John Butler said:

We are still on topic.  The topic is whether or not the Zapruder film is a fake.  John Costella used the leaning lamppost as an indicator of the falseness of the Zapruder film.  Chris was out to debunk that.  I suggested there was better material to debate the falseness of the Zapruder film.  Other films/photos either back up or confound the Zapruder film and need to be discussed.  That's what we are doing.  Do you understand now? 

 

The topic was the leaning lamppost.

You followed an entry after David Healy brought up some valid points along with the link to Dr. John Costella's research.

Chris replied "I will have to reproduce the situation in miniature and see if I can duplicate the change of angle. ( I usually do that before posting, oh well)If I can't reproduce it I will consider that I made a mistake, and the change in vanishing point perspective I theorized would cause the change of angle is not enough to even measure. Thanks for the input." and left off with revisiting an aspect of his results.

I am still waiting for Chris' update, but since you turned this into other Z film alterations, instead of starting a new topic, we are where we're at.

The alteration you are looking for is there, you just have to put the right pieces together.

As it stands right now, you've made quite a good argument for the film not being altered.

P.S. I'm sorry Chris/David for inadvertently hijacking this thread.

On 6/1/2019 at 4:51 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Willis runs across the plaza and towards Elm St where Hughes captures him.

Willis had to run 192.5ft 200ft to his location on Elm St and the limo had to travel 229.8ft  219.8ft from Willis' last photo.

This is measured to z133(Station 2+99.0) since this is the first frame we see Willis in Z.

Since the limo is just rounding the corner of the TSBD, 

Willis is the larger figure viewed first (red box) than the latter (red box) seen down the stairs. imo

The time equals 17.84 seconds discounting any delay(missing frames) created by the Towner and Z133 splice.

192.5ft/17.84 sec = 7.34mph  200ft/17.84 sec = 7.62 mph

229.8/17.84sec = 8.76 mph  219.8ft/17.84 sec = 8.38mph

Added on Edit: The limo started turning from the crosswalk not the County Records Building corner. This is a difference of 10 ft reflected in the corrected distance above.

Added on 2nd Edit: Bald spot man is not Willis. Phil was approx 7.5ft closer to the Main/Houston St corner.

Willis is the latter (red box) and bald spot man is in the former (red box).

 

Thanks Michael/Ron,

If so inclined, take a look at Hughes above and the Robin/Gerda gif I previously labeled with #1,2,3 and 4 and match up Willis rounding the corner first in both, while bald spot man runs second.

Then look at the position of the limo in the full Bell frame gif I just provided, with Rosemary in the red box.

These are very close sync points, within a few frames, because of the difference in camera angles between Bell and Hughes.

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

 

Your presentation of Phil and Linda running down the walk to the SW corner defeats your whole argument.  If you show the whole frame or do one of questionable gifs based on data from 4 or 5 seconds or 70 frames of the Martin film you will see the limo is there when your version of Phil Willis is on the walkway.  You will see the limousine is already on Elm past the TSBD doorway approaching the SW corner of the TSBD when you have Phil and Linda still running for the SW corner on the walkway.  Dorman shows both Linda and Rosemary arriving long before that. 

 

You don't understand what is being presented.

I told you Phil Willis was figure#1( Robin/Gerda gif) in Bell. The first person down the steps rounding the corner. 

Figure #2 is bald spot man.

Figure #3 and #4 who you appear to believe are Phil Willis and Linda, are not.

Rosemary and Linda went up the Houston St sidewalk to Elm St.

All one has to do is look at the beginning of Bell, spot Rosemary, then look to the other side and locate bald spot man and realize Phil has just rounded the corner before him and is ahead of the approaching limo.

11 hours ago, John Butler said:

Davidson,

"Start with this path first.

He's 200ft away.

200ft/17.84 sec = 7.62mph

I would think that the latter part of Bronson would show him running towards the steps, but I don't see anyone over there.

The only person we see down this corridor is bald spot man in other films."

 

If he ran at 7.62 mph and the limousine was moving at 11 mph (most everyone's estimate) and the limousine had at least a 60 + feet head start who got there first?  Some witnesses estimated the speed of the limo could have been as high as 20-40 mph. 

 

 

 

 

I'm quite sure the limo wasn't traveling 20-40 mph around the Elm St turn.

This is what happens when you base your speed conclusions on "(most everyone's estimate)".

Eventually, someone will create a graphic that is more reflective of the true speed traveled for the span we are talking about.

Although there are other deceptions(distance traveled/frame rate) created by this graphic, the overall speed is within 1/2mph of what it should be.

I suggest you add up the speeds within the graphic and come up with the average, then combine that with a 9.3mph average for Houston St.

Once you have that, you can then compare running speeds/distances vs limo speeds/distances.

3 hours ago, Keyvan Shahrdar said:

Yes, it is the ghost image area that it seems to be capturing images from another area.  Do you know what it captures there?

If it's actually part of the image within the frame, it would occur at the bottom of the frame.

In other words, this example provided is just the reverse(ghost image above bottom sprocket hole) in that it's actually part of the building above what you see in the main frame.

You will notice how I used some of the main frame image (white horiz/vert lines from the background building)  to align where it approx would be.

1 hour ago, Robin Unger said:

Gerda Dunckel Bell GIF ( men running )

Outstanding Robin/Gerda.

I didn't have the early Bell frames.

Chronologically Bell will occur a little before Martin.

#1 would be the prime candidate for Willis. imo

#2 bald spot man.

33 minutes ago, Robin Unger said:

Nice work Chris.

When you did the small Bronson GIF, it showed Marylin Willis's parents standing next to the white column.

Is that Phil Willis standing in front of Linda Willis ?

Robin,

That depends on whether the Bronson photo you showed, with Phil's wife commenting that those were her parents, is true.

If that is the case, the person I have red boxed in the small Bronson gif is Marilyn's father, not Phil.

The only picture I have is from Life Magazine 1967.

33 minutes ago, Robin Unger said:

Nice work Chris.

When you did the small Bronson GIF, it showed Marylin Willis's parents standing next to the white column.

Is that Phil Willis standing in front of Linda Willis ?

Robin,

1 hour ago, John Butler said:

Davidson,

Are you saying Zapruder and Bronson are correct rather than Willis and Betzner?  Has Willis and Betzner been faked?  I can't see any signs of photo editing in Willis or Betzner.

I don't see any signs of photo editing in Bronson either.  But, I see plenty in Zapruder.  And, so do others. 

Above, your angle of Zapruder's filming doesn't match Betzner or Willis.  It seems extreme with Zapruder placed to far to the west. 

These distances are about dead on with what I originally thought.

"Lateral distance from Stemmons sign to scarf lady = 32.5ft

Lateral distance from Stemmons sign to light post = 73.75ft"

I have to change my original estimate of 70 feet for the distance from the Stemmons sign to the lamppost to approximately 60 feet in the Bronson frame.  30 feet for Mannequin Row and 30 feet for the gap to the Stemmons sign in Bronson.  This was based on measuring shoulder widths.  See above.

My first question would be.

Who overlaps in the background of Betzner and Willis?

Discount the overlaps and come up with a total.

Something like this:

39 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

 

Start with this path first.

He's 200ft away.

200ft/17.84 sec = 7.62mph

I would think that the latter part of Bronson would show him running towards the steps, but I don't see anyone over there.

The only person we see down this corridor is bald spot man in other films.

 

Willis testimony from the Clay Shaw trial.

It's too bad we don't have the exhibits from the trial.

41 minutes ago, John Butler said:

"Lateral distance from Stemmons sign to scarf lady = 32.5ft

Lateral distance from Stemmons sign to light post = 73.75ft"

 

Drommer/West plats layered.

5 hours ago, Robin Unger said:

Phil Willis path ?

 

 

 

Start with this path first.

He's 200ft away.

200ft/17.84 sec = 7.62mph

I would think that the latter part of Bronson would show him running towards the steps, but I don't see anyone over there.

The only person we see down this corridor is bald spot man in other films.