Joker is going to have to rest on its nominations, because the Academy can't be seen supporting gun violence. There'll be technical and design award wins, but they'll have to be split with 1917, which will cop Best Cinematography.
Scorsese is getting Best Director, as that has been in the payola cards all along. Irishman is probably getting Best Adapted Screenplay, because the gun violence is historical and is spread over several characters, as also in 1917. I'm surprised there was no sentimental Best Actor nomination for De Niro, though only the last 45 minutes of Irishman merited it. Though Joe Pesci deserves it, they'll give Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actor on sentimental grounds, mostly for taking off his shirt at 50.
This may be a year where they'll throw a lot of bronze at women's films and family films: Marriage Story, Little Women, Parasite. Parasite has violence issues, but they'll judge that OK, because it's not American, and there's no accounting for foreigners in the American mind. (Compared to Joker's lone-gunman scenario, this is violence you wouldn't see in an American Oscar nominee: if they rebooted Parasite in America, they'd stick Jennifer Aniston in it.) One signal of the women-family win axis is that Zellweger's a shoo-in for Judy. Another is that, in years of violent nominees, and blah nominees, the Academy has gone all distaff-pastoral on us before.
There's an internet legend that the payola is in for Leo's second Oscar, and that this was the only reason he agreed to play an actor on the skids in OUATIH. On merit, it should go to Joaquin Phoenix, whose #metoo problems haven't quite surfaced yet. However, if Joker wins Best Picture, the end of civilization is signaled, and our next president will be the Emperor Heliogabalus.