Bill Fite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said: He thinks the best course of action is to stick with Biden... Hi Paul - zero is a pretty small sample to base a prediction on. IMO it's only as good as anyone else's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Bacon Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: Hi Paul - zero is a pretty small sample to base a prediction on. IMO it's only as good as anyone else's guess. I don't know what you mean Bill. Was this meant to say he's done no polling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Paul Bacon said: Was this meant to say he's done no polling? No, sorry, - I mean that there hasn't been a situation in the past where a party's incumbent president with high unfavorable polling is showing significant signs of not being able to function to the entire country / world after that president has sewn up the delegates needed to nominate him/her. This is a unique situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago (edited) 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: 3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: I take it from your non-answer that you really don't know who would do better than Biden 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: My god! Sandy, so you lost me in my first 2 sentences?. Kirk: The quick answer is any one of a few but Biden. They would all do better. Yeah, sorry that. I forgot your "quick answer." But my doing so made no difference in my response, since my response was to your detailed answer. 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: 3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: What your response tells me is that if your judgement is that Biden had any chance at all, no matter how small, the best bet would be for Biden to continue running. 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: No, I'm going to break it to you gently Sandy. I want Biden out! Aha, just as I suspected! You're not using your electoral system/path to show why Biden should get out. You're doing the opposite. You want Biden out, and so you're making up an electoral count/path to justify his getting out. LOL, nice move Kirk! 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: 3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: I mean, how could you possibly know that any of a few potential candidates you have in mind would beat Biden? Because Biden and Trump are the least popular 2 Presidential candidates in history! Okay, well at least that makes sense. On the other hand, when polled up against Trump, your candidates do mostly worse than Trump! I know the reason for this seeming incongruity. It is this: When voting time comes, almost all those Democrats who gave Biden an unfavorable vote will come back and vote FOR him. They don't like him, but Trump is much worse. You know this. 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: By all means name drop Allan Lichton, I even tried googling him and couldn't find anything... Sorry, I misspelled his name. It is Allan Lichtman. After the disastrous debate he said it would be a mistake to change the Biden ticket. But that prediction could change post assassination-attempt. Edited 2 hours ago by Sandy Larsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said: It is Allan Lichtin Lichtin or Lichtman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago (edited) 20 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: No, sorry, - I mean that there hasn't been a situation in the past where a party's incumbent president with high unfavorable polling is showing significant signs of not being able to function to the entire country / world after that president has sewn up the delegates needed to nominate him/her. Lichtman factors in 13 variables to make his prediction. 20 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: This is a unique situation. Every situation is unique, one way or another. Edited 2 hours ago by Sandy Larsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Bill Fite said: Lichtin or Lichtman? Oops again! I mean Lichtman. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago (edited) 1 hour ago, Sandy Larsen said: Lichtin factors in 13 variables to make his prediction. ok - So it's Lichtman. Yes his famous 13 keys to the Whitehouse. Have you read them? Only 1 key refers to the current situation w Biden specifically - #12: Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. and I would say that's negative for the incumbent party. Nominating a charismatic candidate would change it to positive. Also - None of the 13 keys deal with poll numbers. In fact, as I re-read them there are only 4 of the 13 points that deal with the candidates and not the parties: No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. So if a charismatic candidate replaces Biden the Democrats lose the Incumbent key but gain the charismatic one. Is the primary one is irrelevant? probably have to ask Lichtman to know. Edited 48 minutes ago by Bill Fite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 hours ago, Matt Allison said: When it comes to worrying about Trump being elected, recall that Trump won in 2016 with 46.1% of the vote. In 2020 he lost when he received 46.6% of the vote. I consider that to be the height of his electoral popularity; his ceiling. This election I expect him to get approx 38-42% of the vote, Can he win with that? There is only one way: If this were the case Wouldn't Trump be calling for RFKjr, Jill Stein and Cornel West to be included in the debates? Shouldn't the Democratic Party explore a tactical voting campaign, i.e., in states where RFKjr's vote is thought to be deciding in swinging the state to Trump, urge Democratic voters to vote for RFKjr ceding the state to him and then hope for the best in the Electoral College? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted 46 minutes ago Author Share Posted 46 minutes ago Why Joe Biden Should Stay in the Race Election predictor says Democrats' prospects would worsen if incumbent stepped aside https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/why-joe-biden-should-stay-race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said: Why Joe Biden Should Stay in the Race Election predictor says Democrats' prospects would worsen if incumbent stepped aside https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/why-joe-biden-should-stay-race Interesting read thanks. He shares the frustration with the Democratic Party's incompetence in the last 2 sentences: " I've been screaming about the Democratic deficit in messaging for years. They don't seem to hear it. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now