The Three Magic Bullets

[Pat Speer]

here's a check on scaling using a photo of a 60's wheel with a lead weight.

The various images of the curb damaged are generally misrepresenting the damage by such things as presenting it upside down (see A) and roatated incorrectly. The FBI exhibit shows the whole curb cut out photographed upside down. It seems all aimed at supporting the idea that a shot came from the rear of the limousine. In fact as this shows a wheel balance weight and its steel clip neatly explains the damage and the lead smear. There was never a Tague fragment to consider at all. It needs to be dropped from all considerations.

You're kidding me. Because the curb cut MAY have been caused by a metal rim, we are supposed to ignore Tague's statements that he felt a sting during the shooting, not to mention the actual blood on his cheek? There was no traffic at the time to send an unseen rim flying towards the curb. The only way for your theory to hold true is for Tague to be a xxxx, or at least severely misguided. You may want to at least read his book before you make such claims.

[John Dolva]

You're kidding me. Because the curb cut MAY have been caused by a metal rim, we are supposed to ignore Tague's statements that he felt a sting during the shooting, not to mention the actual blood on his cheek?

No kidding, Pat. You're rather conveniently ignoring the bulk of the argument on the previous page.

There was no traffic at the time to send an unseen rim flying towards the curb.

Never said there should be. Besides, unseen rims, apart from not existing don't fly. There are rational scenarios. The wheel could have hit there at any time in previous days.

The only way for your theory to hold true is for Tague to be a xxxx, or at least severely misguided. You may want to at least read his book before you make such claims.

You say he would have to be a xxxx or severely misguided, I don't. You may want to read the previous posts before making such claims.

Look, Pat, I've no interest in getting into this sort of stupid headbutting arguments. I've dealt with all those points in the revious posts. I've also asked for (hopefully rational) arguments that demolish it. Let's have an exchange like that?

[Thomas H. Purvis]

Ok, I'm looking at it. I wonder if Tom could post the elevation above sea level for the curb strike position? I think one should be able to do a calculation ackwards from there tosee what velocity a fragment would have had to have to rise from Kennedys head over obstacles and descend to the curb at that point. I imagine it would be possible to be quite precise about that. Maybe not? If so one can then speculate about if that would be sufficiet to tangentially strike concrete, cause the damage it did and chips break skin 20 feet away.

Elevation: 406.2

[Thomas H. Purvis]

EDIT:: *the wheel size, sine waves etc are merely illustrative of a sinewave scribed by a point on a circle as it rolls along. I suspect the tyre was flat and various parts of the hubcap and rim scratched the concrete and that a similar event caused the 'curb strike'. Perhaps Tague was a bit attracted to center stage and once the ball was rolling didn't back out. In the mean time he became convinced that what was theorised as happening actually was what did happen.

Subtract the Tague fragment/wounding/shot whatever, gone is a recurring 'but, what about the Tague shot'.... simple: It never happened. There's nothing in it to bother explaining.

John, the Tague strike almost certainly occurred. It was reported at the time. The FBI ignored it, the WC ignored it, and then Tague himself brought attention to it, and the WC had to take notice. He initially thought the shots came from the fence, so he wasn't pushing the lone-gunman from the TSBD angle. After the WC report came out, like most Americans, he believed it. Later, as he read more about it, and befriended Harold Weisberg, he came to believe there was a conspiracy. Tague was a successful businessman, and, until recent years, never sought to capitalize on his unique connection to history. If he and Walthers faked the strike for attention, it would be quite a coincidence that Tague just so happened to have been stuck in traffic and just so happened to have been in a direct line with the limousine and TSBD at 313. As a result I find him quite credible. As you said, the missing fragment could very well have been as large as a .22. A .22 traveling at 4-500 fps in a stiff breeze will be deflected quite a bit, the fragment even more so since it wasn't completely round. BUT the amount of this deflection would be in the order of yards. If I remember correctly the Tague location was several yards to the right of the 313 trajectory. As a result his location lines up perfectly if one assumes the fragment striking the curb came from the head shot bullet. If one tries to state the shot came at any other time, and was a miss, one is forced to submit that either the assassin/assassins were horrible shots, or something totally idiotic like Posner's "twig" theory occurred, in which a metal-jacketed bullet fired sharply downwards from above struck a twig and separated, with the bulk of its lead interior drastically changing course and striking the ground some 400 feet away.

1. Distance, Z313 to concrete curb removal section: Approximately 257 feet.

2. Elevation at concrete curb removal section: 406.2

3. Horizontal deviation from TSDB to Z313 impact point: Curb removal section approximately 41 to 42 feet right of straight line alignment from 6th floor window of TSDB across impact point of Z313 and continuation in this alignment until directly lateral to curb impact point.

4. Street elevation at Z313: 418.48

5. Top of JFK's head at Z313: 422.58

[Frank Agbat]

John,

What you are describing is mathematically called a "Trochoid." Specifically, for a wheel weight scratching the curb, the trace that will result is called a "curtate cycloid".

Check out the following link, as it includes the parametric equations that describe this:

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/CurtateCycloid.html

Although I'm not necessarily ready to dismiss the Tague curb strike without more research, I do find your theory interesting, especially since there are stratches AND a lack of copper...

[John Dolva]

Thank you Frank and Tom.

That's a nice gif illustrating the curtate cycloid. There can be no doubt that this is what caused the scratches. The pairs exhibit exactly the nature of the trachoid depending on distance from the centre of the wheel. The bottom gets pointier the further away from the centre. So there are two pairs which means that there are two parts scratching along two radii. That's that.

The lead weight on the rim mounted on to the rim with a steel clip needs some more thinking to fit it into the scenario. It need not necessarily be part of that set of scratchings. But it does prove it as something that does happen, and given statistical possibilties, that it should happen just on that section and not be related is low, or that it is a common occurance and therefore likely.

Tom that's excellent,thank you, there is enough there to apply some simple ballistics to see how a 46 grain fragment should behave over that range.

If one looks at this photo it seems that the fragment would most likely either have to pass over the crossbar, or, if under the crossbar, then it would have to pass between the sunshades. Maybe it slipped under the crossbar and just over the sunshades. However, lets assume the most favourable trajectory to achieve the necessary drop over the distance, ie between the sunshades and over the windscreen and under the crossbar, ie straight ahead.

[John Dolva]

My maths is twenty year old 1st year university memory. IE. a vague idea of how to do it with a fair amount of doubt regarding comprehension, so here is a suggestion in the hope that someone can confirm, direct, correct etc.

Gravitational acceleration is 32.17fps per second.

Here the drop is 16.38 feet

Therefore the 46 grain fragment will have travelled for 0.51 seconds over 257.52 feet.

Therefore the average velocity of the 46 grain fragment is 504.94 feet per second.

Force is ma vertical and ? horizontal: ie 0.029 Newton from gravity in the vertical + ?

momentum is mass times velocity. 0.003 x 153.91 = 0.15 N

ie the 3 grams fragment hits the curb with 0.157 N of force.

This is considerably less than the others calculations which assumes a muzzle velocity of almost 1000fps required to cause the damage. Here I think I show that such a velocity could not EVER given the atmospheric conditions drop the required amount to strike the curb over this distance.

Edited October 26, 2006 by John Dolva

[John Dolva]

Following on from above with an assumption it's essentially correct re trajectory, force etc.

Considerations of Weathered Concrete Surface Hardness.

Here we have

A steel wheel rim on a vehicle of perhaps 1 ton striking concrete and leaving scratches.

This gives an idea of the surface hardness.

A 46 grain hot soft lead fragment striking with 0.157 N force and gouging out a deeper wider hole than the steel wheel rim. Makes sense?

Edited October 26, 2006 by John Dolva

[Thomas H. Purvis]

Thank you Frank and Tom.

That's a nice gif illustrating the curtate cycloid. There can be no doubt that this is what caused the scratches. The pairs exhibit exactly the nature of the trachoid depending on distance from the centre of the wheel. The bottom gets pointier the further away from the centre. So there are two pairs which means that there are two parts scratching along two radii. That's that.

The lead weight on the rim mounted on to the rim with a steel clip needs some more thinking to fit it into the scenario. It need not necessarily be part of that set of scratchings. But it does prove it as something that does happen, and given statistical possibilties, that it should happen just on that section and not be related is low, or that it is a common occurance and therefore likely.

Tom that's excellent,thank you, there is enough there to apply some simple ballistics to see how a 46 grain fragment should behave over that range.

If one looks at this photo it seems that the fragment would most likely either have to pass over the crossbar, or, if under the crossbar, then it would have to pass between the sunshades. Maybe it slipped under the crossbar and just over the sunshades. However, lets assume the most favourable trajectory to achieve the necessary drop over the distance, ie between the sunshades and over the windscreen and under the crossbar, ie straight ahead.

John;

Perhaps some personal experience is of benefit in this hypothesis.

Having worked at a service station after school was out during high school, it was not uncommon to get cars in to fix flats, on which the rims had scatches around the entire circumference of the outer edge of the rim as a result of having come in contact with a concrete curb.

Have personally done this myself in my old 55 chevy. (which I certainly wish that I still had)

It was certainly not that uncommon.

Secondly, my uncle was a mechanic, as are his two sons, and they did considerable amounts of front end alignment, brake work, and wheel balancing. Therefore, as a fact, your hypothesis has considerable backing as it is an absolute that balancing weights often had to be re-enstalled on vehicles as a result of curb impact in which the steel clip caught the curb and it resulted in the balancing weight being forceably removed from the rim of the vehicle as a result of the curb impact.

And although I personally have never examined the concrete curb of where such an incident occurred, it takes little imagination to resolve exactly what the steel clip portion of the balancing weight can do.

Your hypothesis has far more credibility and basis in fact than the limited possibility that the curb damage was caused by a lead projectile of limited velocity and limited weight.

Which in no way detracts from the fact that Mr. Tague was, beyond any doubt hit in the cheek by something of extremely limited velocity.

Lastly, as regards the rim. In today's tires we have those "wide" radial tires in which it would be considerably more difficult to achieve any such damage to the rim (without damaging the tire also).

However, in 1963, most of us were running those narrow "non-radial"/non-wide tread tires and the outer side of the tire frequently protruded only slightly wider than the outer edge of the tire rim.

Thanks for an enlightening and most probably correct "alternative answer".

Tom

[Thomas H. Purvis]

Ok, I'm looking at it. I wonder if Tom could post the elevation above sea level for the curb strike position? I think one should be able to do a calculation ackwards from there tosee what velocity a fragment would have had to have to rise from Kennedys head over obstacles and descend to the curb at that point. I imagine it would be possible to be quite precise about that. Maybe not? If so one can then speculate about if that would be sufficiet to tangentially strike concrete, cause the damage it did and chips break skin 20 feet away.

Elevation: 406.2

John;

Certainly would not want you to think that I just made up that elevation.

Tom

Ok, I'm looking at it. I wonder if Tom could post the elevation above sea level for the curb strike position? I think one should be able to do a calculation ackwards from there tosee what velocity a fragment would have had to have to rise from Kennedys head over obstacles and descend to the curb at that point. I imagine it would be possible to be quite precise about that. Maybe not? If so one can then speculate about if that would be sufficiet to tangentially strike concrete, cause the damage it did and chips break skin 20 feet away.

Elevation: 406.2

John;

Certainly would not want you to think that I just made up that elevation.

Tom

[Cliff Varnell]

John, the Tague fragment is not nearly the mystery it seems to be, once one realizes that it was a fragment from the head shot and not a sepaqate bullet strike. Sturdivan and Rahn have a whole section on this on Rahn's website. Sturdivan maintains that fragments exit skulls at hundreds of feet per second and that a large enough fragment--more than a third of the head shot bullet was never found--would have enough energy to travel to Tague and damage the curb. He performs a series of calculations demonstrating this. It made sense to me at the time. If you take a look and find something wrong with their thinking on this point please let me know.

A 3g frag can't maintain a near-straight-line trajectory into the teeth of a hard,

swirling wind over the course of 85 yards.

Rahn didn't accurately calculate the rise and run of his Tague Frag, as our friend

John Hunt proved back in 2002. Rahn acknowledged that the curb-impact velocity

would thus be reduced 30%. He promised to change the figures on his website,

but since he is a propagandist and not an educator he lacks the sufficient intellectual

honesty to maintain accuracy.

Rahn and Sturdivan are crackpots, Pat -- havent you figured that out?

Edited October 26, 2006 by Cliff Varnell

[John Dolva]

"A 3g frag can't maintain a near-straight-line trajectory into the teeth of a hard,

swirling wind over the course of 85 yards."

That's right, it would slow it and push it in the opposite direction to Tague and as it slows it drops and it is more subject to wind and drops and slows etc etc. It could start of confidently in the right direction but over the course of it's travel rapidly become more and more subject to this wind.

____________________

to Tagues cheek: again optimum trajectory for greatest end velocity

Gravitational acceleration is 32.17fps per second.

Here the drop is 11.38 feet

Therefore the 46 grain fragment will have travelled for 0.35seconds over 257 feet.

Therefore the average velocity of the 46 grain fragment is 726.51feet per second.

This is equivalent to an airgun. However, the trajectory of a pellet of this size at this muzzle velocity is much flatter. A drop in the order of a foot or so. IOW if it's a fragment from the headshot that hit Tague, it was not on a flat trajectory but very much up from the head. Unless its ballistics coefficient was very low, in which case it would by the end of travel be moving forward far less than the average. This then increases the time and reduces the velocity, as it approaches (and I'm not suggesting it even comes close) terminal velocity, the only force giving it speed is gravitation, and a pellet that size would probably just bounce off whatever it struck. Anyway, given where Tague was standing, the trajectory of the fragment would carry it DOWN in to or on to one of the cars, (not upwards as when assumed from the curb). There was no report of anything like that.

I still don't think that the case for a fragment hitting Tague is foolproof by any means.

[Thomas H. Purvis]

"A 3g frag can't maintain a near-straight-line trajectory into the teeth of a hard,

swirling wind over the course of 85 yards."

That's right, it would slow it and push it in the opposite direction to Tague and as it slows it drops and it is more subject to wind and drops and slows etc etc. It could start of confidently in the right direction but over the course of it's travel rapidly become more and more subject to this wind.

____________________

to Tagues cheek: again optimum trajectory for greatest end velocity

Gravitational acceleration is 32.17fps per second.

Here the drop is 11.38 feet

Therefore the 46 grain fragment will have travelled for 0.35seconds over 257 feet.

Therefore the average velocity of the 46 grain fragment is 726.51feet per second.

This is equivalent to an airgun. However, the trajectory of a pellet of this size at this muzzle velocity is much flatter. A drop in the order of a foot or so. IOW if it's a fragment from the headshot that hit Tague, it was not on a flat trajectory but very much up from the head. Unless its ballistics coefficient was very low, in which case it would by the end of travel be moving forward far less than the average. This then increases the time and reduces the velocity, as it approaches (and I'm not suggesting it even comes close) terminal velocity, the only force giving it speed is gravitation, and a pellet that size would probably just bounce off whatever it struck. Anyway, given where Tague was standing, the trajectory of the fragment would carry it DOWN in to or on to one of the cars, (not upwards as when assumed from the curb). There was no report of anything like that.

I still don't think that the case for a fragment hitting Tague is foolproof by any means.

John;

As you are now fully aware, those who come up with anything which goes "against the grain" of the theories which others have imprinted themselves with, are themselves frequently attacked.

Nevertheless, anyone who can not see the potential merit to your work on the curb strike is not likely to see anything of value in any research.

Your work has a variety of supporting "physical merit", which can not be overlooked if one wants the answers.

They may never find or resolve the complete answer, yet the potential validity of this solution makes it an item worth pursuit.

Nevertheless, we have ALL been responsible for "imprinted thinking" as regards this subject.

Those who think CT multilple assassin like to play on the importance of this "missed shot".

Those who think single assassin like to play on the probability of a fragment, and most of them blame it on a fragment from some mythological "SHOT THAT MISSED" and struck the pavement only to shatter.

The hypothesis that the Tague/concrete curb strike is from a fragment which came from the Z313 shot, has a variety of coincidental factors which in themselves may have completely guided us to an incorrect conclusion.

1. The curb strike is "downrange" and very near to the alignment from the window of the TSDB, across the top of JFK's head, thereafter to the curb damage.

Coincidental????????

2. The curb strike is located in an almost straight line from JFK's head, across the center of the windshield of the limo (between the sun visors) to the point of impact on the curb, and, a limited velocity fragment is known to have gone forward and fractured the windshield along this same trajectory.

Coincidental?????????

3. JBC received his wound to the wrist as a result of a fragment from the head shot at Z313. Therefore, fragments of lead escaped with sufficient mass and velocity to completely fracture the wrist bone of JBC and thereafter exit the wrist.

To assume that this was the ONLY fragment of lead which escaped the head of JFK with sufficient mass and velocity to do such damage, is to ignore the factual evidence .

4. There is no known ballistic coefficient for an irregular fragment of lead. It can easily "curve" one way or another, based strictly upon the resistance of the air through which it passes.

Therefore, one can neither prove nor disprove that such a fragment could or could not have curved the 40+ feet from the straight alignment from the TSDB across the top of JFK's head, and they can not calculate nor demonstate how such a fragment may curve left or right or up or down.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With all this, it has been a "general assumption" by those of us who have absolutely ZERO support for the multiple assassin theories, that the Tague/curb hit was a result of either the Z313 head shot or THE SHOT THAT MISSED.

And, since I have long known that there was no SHOT THAT MISSED, then it requires extremely little in the way of cerebral function to narrow down where the Tague/curb/cheek hit came from.

Your work has demonstated a complete fallacy in the reasoning that the concrete curb strike has any bearing on the nick/scratch to Tague's cheek.

It is "assumptive reasoning" based on completely circumstantial evidence, and just may have lead us all astray.

And although I would have some difficulty in accepting that a fragment from the Z313 headshot still maintained the altitude to strike Tague in the cheek and only scratch his face, I would have absolutely not problem in accepting that the fragment responsible for this scratch to his face encountered the pavement of Main St. directly out in front of Tague and thereafter richocheted upwards with only minimal velocity, striking Tague in the cheek.

http://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk...eport_0070b.htm

[John Dolva]

Tom, I've had a nagging doubt about the Tague story for some time. I've suggested as much a couple of times before. This time Tony's astute observations provided the necessary key. All the subsequent input, even nay-says help to clarify things.

I never doubted you were providing the correct data from the survey. Why wouldn't you, your scientific approach is well recognised. I may not agree with all your conclusions, partly from ignorance of the subject, partly from, as you aptly call 'imprints', and partly from choosing equally credible alternatives. I do take your input seriously. A number of issues are 'on the boil' (Che's 'failure' for example) and this one will take a bit more time. I don't feel under attack, it would be good to have someone double checking the ballistic reasoning and calculations. The Tague sting and Walthers drops of blood has other explanations. I wonder what the necessity of having it be from a fragment is?

a thought re cartridge ejection: are there concievably situations where a control of cartridge ejection or during normal ejection that can cause fragments of the cartridge to fly off unpredictably? Are there perhaps down and to the left areas of a rifle that are more dangerous as far as possible fragments from a firing? Alternatively is there situation where the force of ejection is sufficient to chip concrete? I'm thinking of the underpass balustrade.

[Pat Speer]

John, I didn't mean to come across as a nay-sayer. I interpreted your efforts as efforts designed to make people dismiss Tague's statements, so that they could convince themselves the shots came from the front. Something struck Tague. You are correct in pointing out that it has never been proven that whatever struck him first struck the curb.

I find it intriguing, nonetheless, that you seem to be arguing that the bullet drop from Kennedy's head to the curb was too great to have been created by a fragment from the head shot. This is the exact opposite of what most CTs have argued over the years. They claim that that there was no way a fragment could travel so far. I think they're wrong. A .22 caliber bullet traveling at subsonic speeds has an effective range of a hundred yards or more. The fragment in question was only slightly smaller and traveling only slightly slower. I find it hard to believe such a missile would NOT leave a mark after striking a curb.