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The inevitable end result of our last 56 years


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"We no longer have that luxury. The West must complete the project that began in 1991. It must seek to fully decolonize Russia."

The Atlantic 

 

Decolonize Russia

To avoid more senseless bloodshed, the Kremlin must lose what empire it still retains.

By Casey Michel. 5/27/2022

This is what passes for the left side of the aisle. The liberal Atlantic not only wants Russia out of Ukraine, but all its other "colonies" as well, Chechnya, Georgia, Armenia and some other places.

The Atlantic author does mention China, and suggests getting Han China out of the eastern half of the country, but he skirts the issue of how the US supposed to beat down not only Russia but China.

I happen support pushing Russia out of Ukraine quickly as a humanitarian measure. Not sure on the Crimea. 

But it looks like the left-wing is fully embracing another 30-year-long (and more) expensive set of Cold and Hot Wars. The China stuff could be tricky---Wall Street, media, Silicon Valley are deep into bed with the CCP. 

But it looks like perma-war for as far as the eye can see.  The Donks and 'Phants...or is it the 'Phants and the Donks? 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Benjamin Cole said:

Chris--Yes, the Federal Reserve has been buying US Treasuries through the pandemic, and did also during and after the 2007-9 Global Financial Crisis. This is called quantitative easing. 

BTW, the Bank of Japan (their central bank) owns about one-half of all Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) outstanding. The Japan government debt to GDP ratio is far higher than that of the US. 

But is the Japanese public "heavily leveraged" or in debt? Well, the Bank of Japan is owned by the publics, and remaining government debt is owned by Japanese. You tell me. 

This is entirely a fascinating topic, which books could and have been written about.  

My own interpretation is this activity is relatively benign, and that the tight-money crowd would rather suffocate an economy than "endure" prosperity with 2% to 3% inflation. 

There are two topics I have studied for 50 years: macroeconomics and the JFKA. 

And my conclusions? "If you are not confused, then maybe you do not understand the situation." 

I am sort of surprised that nobody else has commented on this. I can feel your enthusiasm and passion for the topic. You'll run rings around me on this subject. I understand fractional reserve banking well and I do remember Gordon Brown rolling out the QE in Britain, during that period of austerity after 2008. 

One of my German pals has a more pessimistic outlook. 
He said: 
What's the health of your state when the central bank that issues the money also holds 40% if the longterm debt? 
Companies, banks, countries are not demanding/trusting US treasuries, which are regarded as the best in the world still. 

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1 hour ago, Chris Barnard said:

I am sort of surprised that nobody else has commented on this. I can feel your enthusiasm and passion for the topic. You'll run rings around me on this subject. I understand fractional reserve banking well and I do remember Gordon Brown rolling out the QE in Britain, during that period of austerity after 2008. 

One of my German pals has a more pessimistic outlook. 
He said: 
What's the health of your state when the central bank that issues the money also holds 40% if the longterm debt? 
Companies, banks, countries are not demanding/trusting US treasuries, which are regarded as the best in the world still. 

Your Teutonic friend...well, not sure. There is actually quite a bit of "flight to safety" in the US Treasuries. Investors are willing to own 10-year Treasuries that pay about as much as the rate of inflation. Even more so with Japanese Government bonds. 

The US is running up debts. The day may come when Treasuries fall out of favor. Not yet. 

 

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Ben's actually right Chris, your German pal's full of it. The U.S. 10 year treasuries are a flight to safety, and people have been forecasting it's demise for decades. But the dollar and the yen are flights to safety despite the fact their debt to gdp ratios are among the highest. That's in part because their relative positions to the rest of the developed world hasn't greatly changed.

All countries have taken on additional debt because of covid , and Japan has taken on the most.Almost double the share per GDP of the United States.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/

They have sunk recently. And if you've seen their history, and the figures below, it's another of those anamolies  I can't explain why it hasn't happened sooner.

 

Name National Debt to GDP Ratio
Population
Japan 237.54% 125,584,838
Venezuela 214.45% 29,266,991
Sudan 177.87%  
Greece 174.15% 10,316,637
Lebanon 157.81% 6,684,849
Italy 133.43% 60,262,770
Eritrea 127.34% 3,662,244
Cape Verde 125.29% 567,678
Mozambique 124.46% 33,089,461
Portugal 119.46% 10,140,570
Barbados 117.27% 288,023
Singapore 109.37% 5,943,546
United States 106.70% 334,805,269
Bhutan 103.85% 787,941
Cyprus 101.04% 1,223,387
Bahrain 100.19% 1,783,983
Belgium 99.57% 11,668,278
France 99.20% 65,584,518
Spain 95.96% 46,719,142
Jordan 94.83% 10,300,869
Jamaica 94.13% 2,985,094
Belize 92.64% 412,190
Angola 90.46% 35,027,343
Brazil 90.36% 215,353,593
Republic of the Congo 90.19% 5,797,805
Antigua And Barbuda 88.35% 99,509
Canada 88.01% 38,388,419
Egypt 86.93% 106,156,692
United Kingdom 85.67&    
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2 hours ago, Benjamin Cole said:

Your Teutonic friend...well, not sure. There is actually quite a bit of "flight to safety" in the US Treasuries. Investors are willing to own 10-year Treasuries that pay about as much as the rate of inflation. Even more so with Japanese Government bonds. 

The US is running up debts. The day may come when Treasuries fall out of favor. Not yet. 

 

 

15 minutes ago, Kirk Gallaway said:

Ben's actually right Chris, your German pal's full of it. The U.S. 10 year treasuries are a flight to safety, and people have been forecasting it's demise for decades. But the dollar and the yen are flights to safety despite the fact their debt to gdp ratios are among the highest. That's in part because their relative positions to the rest of the developed world hasn't greatly changed.

All countries have taken on additional debt because of covid , and Japan has taken on the most.Almost double the share per GDP of the United States.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/

They have sunk recently. And if you've seen their history, and the figures below, it's another of those anamolies  I can't explain why it hasn't happened sooner.

 

Name National Debt to GDP Ratio
Population
Japan 237.54% 125,584,838
Venezuela 214.45% 29,266,991
Sudan 177.87%  
Greece 174.15% 10,316,637
Lebanon 157.81% 6,684,849
Italy 133.43% 60,262,770
Eritrea 127.34% 3,662,244
Cape Verde 125.29% 567,678
Mozambique 124.46% 33,089,461
Portugal 119.46% 10,140,570
Barbados 117.27% 288,023
Singapore 109.37% 5,943,546
United States 106.70% 334,805,269
Bhutan 103.85% 787,941
Cyprus 101.04% 1,223,387
Bahrain 100.19% 1,783,983
Belgium 99.57% 11,668,278
France 99.20% 65,584,518
Spain 95.96% 46,719,142
Jordan 94.83% 10,300,869
Jamaica 94.13% 2,985,094
Belize 92.64% 412,190
Angola 90.46% 35,027,343
Brazil 90.36% 215,353,593
Republic of the Congo 90.19% 5,797,805
Antigua And Barbuda 88.35% 99,509
Canada 88.01% 38,388,419
Egypt 86.93% 106,156,692
United Kingdom 85.67&    


Seb is a data scientist. I am open to the idea that he’s spending too much time in the sun in Mexico. 🙂 

There does seem to be a general consensus amongst a fair few traders that I know that a big crash is imminent.

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5 hours ago, Matt Allison said:

"Narrator: And in the end, it seemed, the jury did agree."

Durham's sham case has ended in a Not Guilty verdict.

 

 

John Durham Tried to Prove Trump's Russiagate Theory.

Instead, He Debunked It.

Trump's Prosecutor Faceplants.

John Durham Accidentally Debunked Trump’s Russiagate Theory (archive.ph)

 

Trump’s prosecutor face-plants.

 

Trump’s prosecutor face-plants.

Edited by W. Niederhut
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7 hours ago, Matt Allison said:

"Narrator: And in the end, it seemed, the jury did agree."

Durham's sham case has ended in a Not Guilty verdict.

 

 

I regarded Sussman as innocent until proven guilty, and the jury has ruled. I happily accept the jury's ruling. 

Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law is a necessary standard for a civil society. 

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2 minutes ago, Benjamin Cole said:

I regarded Sussman as innocent until proven guilty, and the jury has ruled. I happily accept the jury's ruling. 

Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law is a necessary standard for a civil society. 

Good news all around. Of course the Trump and his acolytes will spin it anyway by claiming the judge was biased and the jury rigged. 

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2 minutes ago, Paul Brancato said:

Good news all around. Of course the Trump and his acolytes will spin it anyway by claiming the judge was biased and the jury rigged. 

And, in fact, a DC judge and jury might be biased. But we still must accept the jury's finding, and happily so. 

The alternative to a strict "innocent until proven guilty in a court of law" is witch hunts. 

There is quite a bit of Salem in this corner of the internet. 

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9 hours ago, Chris Barnard said:

 


Seb is a data scientist. I am open to the idea that he’s spending too much time in the sun in Mexico. 🙂 

There does seem to be a general consensus amongst a fair few traders that I know that a big crash is imminent.

I love it - the Nasdaq loses 30% and that’s not a big crash. I’m tempted to take your comment as a bullish signal. It does look like markets are reacting to real world problems when they go down like that. I spend an hour a day looking at the markets and reading commentary and advice. Experts are so often wrong in their predictions. I’ve tried to use fundamental analysis for years. I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s a poor predictor. In its simplest terms, stock prices rise when people and institutions buy more than they sell. So there are actual investors who do just that - invest in the future of a company. But most trading is just the herd following the herd. It’s self reinforcing. The well known Wall Street saying that the markets ‘climb the wall of worry’ seems to be a way of explaining this contrarian price action. Chris is surely correct when he says that inside information is rampant. George Carlin said “ Its a big club, and you ain’t in it”.

 

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