Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 11:04 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:04 AM 15 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said: He thinks the best course of action is to stick with Biden... Hi Paul - zero is a pretty small sample to base a prediction on. IMO it's only as good as anyone else's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Bacon Posted Tuesday at 11:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:08 AM 2 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: Hi Paul - zero is a pretty small sample to base a prediction on. IMO it's only as good as anyone else's guess. I don't know what you mean Bill. Was this meant to say he's done no polling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 11:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:11 AM Just now, Paul Bacon said: Was this meant to say he's done no polling? No, sorry, - I mean that there hasn't been a situation in the past where a party's incumbent president with high unfavorable polling is showing significant signs of not being able to function to the entire country / world after that president has sewn up the delegates needed to nominate him/her. This is a unique situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted Tuesday at 11:12 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:12 AM (edited) 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: 3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: I take it from your non-answer that you really don't know who would do better than Biden 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: My god! Sandy, so you lost me in my first 2 sentences?. Kirk: The quick answer is any one of a few but Biden. They would all do better. Yeah, sorry that. I forgot your "quick answer." But my doing so made no difference in my response, since my response was to your detailed answer. 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: 3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: What your response tells me is that if your judgement is that Biden had any chance at all, no matter how small, the best bet would be for Biden to continue running. 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: No, I'm going to break it to you gently Sandy. I want Biden out! Aha, just as I suspected! You're not using your electoral system/path to show why Biden should get out. You're doing the opposite. You want Biden out, and so you're making up an electoral count/path to justify his getting out. LOL, nice move Kirk! 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: 3 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: I mean, how could you possibly know that any of a few potential candidates you have in mind would beat Biden? Because Biden and Trump are the least popular 2 Presidential candidates in history! Okay, well at least that makes sense. On the other hand, when polled up against Trump, your candidates do mostly worse than Trump! I know the reason for this seeming incongruity. It is this: When voting time comes, almost all those Democrats who gave Biden an unfavorable vote will come back and vote FOR him. They don't like him, but Trump is much worse. You know this. 1 hour ago, Kirk Gallaway said: By all means name drop Allan Lichton, I even tried googling him and couldn't find anything... Sorry, I misspelled his name. It is Allan Lichtman. After the disastrous debate he said it would be a mistake to change the Biden ticket. But that prediction could change post assassination-attempt. Edited Tuesday at 11:31 AM by Sandy Larsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 11:20 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:20 AM 7 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said: It is Allan Lichtin Lichtin or Lichtman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted Tuesday at 11:21 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:21 AM (edited) 20 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: No, sorry, - I mean that there hasn't been a situation in the past where a party's incumbent president with high unfavorable polling is showing significant signs of not being able to function to the entire country / world after that president has sewn up the delegates needed to nominate him/her. Lichtman factors in 13 variables to make his prediction. 20 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: This is a unique situation. Every situation is unique, one way or another. Edited Tuesday at 11:32 AM by Sandy Larsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted Tuesday at 11:22 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:22 AM 1 minute ago, Bill Fite said: Lichtin or Lichtman? Oops again! I mean Lichtman. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 11:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:34 AM (edited) 1 hour ago, Sandy Larsen said: Lichtin factors in 13 variables to make his prediction. ok - So it's Lichtman. Yes his famous 13 keys to the Whitehouse. Have you read them? Only 1 key refers to the current situation w Biden specifically - #12: Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. and I would say that's negative for the incumbent party. Nominating a charismatic candidate would change it to positive. Also - None of the 13 keys deal with poll numbers. In fact, as I re-read them there are only 4 of the 13 points that deal with the candidates and not the parties: No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. So if a charismatic candidate replaces Biden the Democrats lose the Incumbent key but gain the charismatic one. Is the primary one is irrelevant? probably have to ask Lichtman to know. Edited Tuesday at 12:47 PM by Bill Fite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:23 PM 6 hours ago, Matt Allison said: When it comes to worrying about Trump being elected, recall that Trump won in 2016 with 46.1% of the vote. In 2020 he lost when he received 46.6% of the vote. I consider that to be the height of his electoral popularity; his ceiling. This election I expect him to get approx 38-42% of the vote, Can he win with that? There is only one way: If this were the case Wouldn't Trump be calling for RFKjr, Jill Stein and Cornel West to be included in the debates? Shouldn't the Democratic Party explore a tactical voting campaign, i.e., in states where RFKjr's vote is thought to be deciding in swinging the state to Trump, urge Democratic voters to vote for RFKjr ceding the state to him and then hope for the best in the Electoral College? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted Tuesday at 12:48 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:48 PM Why Joe Biden Should Stay in the Race Election predictor says Democrats' prospects would worsen if incumbent stepped aside https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/why-joe-biden-should-stay-race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:56 PM 5 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said: Why Joe Biden Should Stay in the Race Election predictor says Democrats' prospects would worsen if incumbent stepped aside https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/why-joe-biden-should-stay-race Interesting read thanks. He shares the frustration with the Democratic Party's incompetence in the last 2 sentences: " I've been screaming about the Democratic deficit in messaging for years. They don't seem to hear it. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM I spoke to one of my nephews at another nephew's wedding last weekend. The guy is an exec at a local utility company, and he was raving about his new electric car. I told him that I should get an electric car, but that I would never buy a Tesla, because I can't stand Elon Musk. He deadpanned, "That's why I bought a Kia." So, how screwed up is Elon Musk? He's donating millions to the candidate who wants to sabotage clean energy in the U.S. Elon Musk to donate $45 million a month to new Donald Trump super PAC: Report Source: USA Today X CEO Elon Musk said he will donate $45 million a month to a new super political-action committee backing former president Donald Trump's reelection campaign, according to the Wall Street Journal. Despite reportedly donating to the political-action committee, the Tesla founder was not listed on a Monday filing from America PAC that revealed it has raised over $8 million. Other donors in this group include capital firm 8VC co-founder Joe Lonsdale, former U.S. ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft as well as investor twins Cameron and Tyler Winklesvoss, the Journal reported Monday citing a person familiar with the matter. As of the first day of the Republican National Convention, Musk remains the only Fortune 100 CEO to fully endorse a candidate in the 2024 presidential race. Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/15/elon-musk-45-million-donation-trump-super-pac/74418715007/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM My younger brother lives in Houston and his house has been without electricity since the storm hit. It is a total Texas mess. Centerpoint Energy has enjoyed a monopoly on serving Houston for 100 years. It is a decayed institution. ‘This Storm Has Broken People’: After Beryl, Some Consider Leaving – DNyuz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost - Newsweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM The MAGA Plan to End Free Weather Reports Project 2025 would all but dissolve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By Zoë Schlanger https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/07/noaa-project-2025-weather/678987/ “In the United States, as in most other countries, weather forecasts are a freely accessible government amenity. The National Weather Service issues alerts and predictions, warning of hurricanes and excessive heat and rainfall, all at the total cost to American taxpayers of roughly $4 per person per year. Anyone with a TV, smartphone, radio, or newspaper can know what tomorrow’s weather will look like, whether a hurricane is heading toward their town, or if a drought has been forecast for the next season. Even if they get that news from a privately owned app or TV station, much of the underlying weather data are courtesy of meteorologists working for the federal government.” “Charging for popular services that were previously free isn’t generally a winning political strategy. But hard-right policy makers appear poised to try to do just that should Republicans gain power in the next term. Project 2025—a nearly 900-page book of policy proposals published by the conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation—states that an incoming administration should all but dissolve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.” No more tornado warnings. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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