Douglas Caddy Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) · This is DJT's new running mate JD Vance. Vance posted this photo of himself to showcase his macho working class chops, but it warrants a closer look .... First of all, wtf is this guy looking at? Why is he holding the weapon in this manner, which goes against everything they teach you on Day 1 of rifle safety training. Why are his work boots made of suede and not have a single smudge on them? Why is he sitting in front of firewood implying he just chopped it when it's clearly been milled by a machine, kiln dried, and delivered via pallet. Why do his blue jeans not have a Cophenhagen chewing tobacco ring on the front pocket. Why is he pretending he works with his hands when he actually worked for RW billionaire Peter Thiel. Why is he DJT's running mate when he said the man is 'noxious' 'dangerous' an 'idiot', and compared him to Richard Nixon and Adolf Hitler... Edited July 16 by Douglas Caddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 From anti-Trump to vice-president nominee: JD Vance in his own words | JD Vance | The Guardian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Schiff warns of a wipeout if Biden is the nominee in November. Schiff is right on this. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/politics/schiff-biden-democrats.html?unlocked_article_code=1.7k0.birM.CVHocjOSrna_&smid=url-share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Remember when the Democrats were accused of wanting to implement death panels with Health Care Legislation? Well Quote Republicans Just Handed Down a Death Sentence to the Nation's Coal Miners As black lung continues to kill coal miners, House Republicans moved to block enforcement of a life-saving safety rule. It’s clear that the Republican committee members are determined to slash and burn away whatever “excesses” they can find, and nowhere is that more apparent than in their disgusting betrayal of the coal miners their party loves so dearly to pretend to respect. Section 123 of the bill reads, “None of the funds made available by this Act may be used to administer, implement, or enforce the proposed rule entitled ‘Lowering Miners’ Exposure to Respirable Crystalline Silica and Improving Respiratory Protection,’ published by the Department of Labor in the Federal Register on April 18, 2024.” The language is bloodless, but the intent is utterly vicious: These highly paid, pampered modern aristocrats sat back in their padded chairs and casually handed down a potential death sentence to 44,000 people. That’s how many coal miners currently work in the U.S. as of June 2024. One in 5 of those miners — those who have spent more than 20 years underground — is suffering from coal miner’s pneumoconiosis, the dreadful degenerative lung disease known more colloquially as black lung. Link to In These Times My grandmother and her friends were all widows on Black Lung allowances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) - With respect to Donald Trump: "You know, it almost seems to me, I think that the investigation is necessary at this point within Congress, not just the FBI, not just others," said Mills. "You know, I look back at — I'm thinking all right, you know, for an individual, if you looked at the escalations and how they are trying to approach him. Let's just say that it was like, okay, first we want to censor and silence you, then we want to indict and imprison you, now are attempting to kill you—" I knew it. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Eric Trump 07/15/24 - “They have tried to impeach him. Gone after us, gone after me… They have done everything to strip him of his wealth and his fame. They literally tried to kill him this week.” Ah yes. The all-powerful “They” The same people who tried to impeach Donald Trump, then tried to kill him. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Gallaway Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 4 hours ago, Bill Fite said: ok - So it's Lichtman. Yes his famous 13 keys to the Whitehouse. Have you read them? Only 1 key refers to the current situation w Biden specifically - #12: Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. and I would say that's negative for the incumbent party. Nominating a charismatic candidate would change it to positive. Also - None of the 13 keys deal with poll numbers. In fact, as I re-read them there are only 4 of the 13 points that deal with the candidates and not the parties: No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. So if a charismatic candidate replaces Biden the Democrats lose the Incumbent key but gain the charismatic one. Is the primary one is irrelevant? probably have to ask Lichtman to know. So this was the "13 keys" guy? I was going to say to "Sandy, fine as long as it's not the 13 keys guy!" They weren't called "variables" Sandy, that's too clinical, this guys really commercial! Think "Keys." He's certainly the most commercial guy here. I think I've seen clips of him 4 times now, at least 2 softball CNN interviews. Should there be that much exposure to one pundit here? But I saw a Chris Cuomo interview with Lichtman disputing rumors of Biden's being in decline, to which Cuomo said that he has seen Biden over the last few years and he definitely is in decline! Cuomo then went into another solo segment later where he lambasted that this was the only alternative the 2 parties could have given us? Starts at 3:45. https://youtu.be/yKdqEK4T97U Well done Bill! The guy's methodology is so static, It's based solely on the number of keys and weighs each key exactly the same! Any one can back test and come up with a formula. With all this certainty, he doesn't make a prediction, which is ok. But as you say Bill, he doesn't really take in account some unique variables. There's not adequate polling on the other major Democratic candidates because they are not in the race. So none of those more youthful 4 couldn't beat Trump? Why do you think despite being a lame VP candidate that Trump picked a 39 year old, and wants Biden to stay in the race?? *I see in Melania's call for de escalation, she talked about Donald's love for music! They must know each other very intimately! heh heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Senator Menendez is convicted. This will reduce the slim Democratic majority in the Senate. https://apnews.com/article/menendez-bribery-trial-jury-deliberations-bab89b99a77fc6ce95531c88ab26cc4d?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 8 hours ago, Kirk Gallaway said: Kirk: The quick answer is any one of a few but Biden. They would all do better There’s just no evidence for this, Kirk; at least not with 4 months left till the election. Americans like to get to know who their President will be and become comfortable with them. FWIW, there are some deadlines with delegates so that the switch is pretty much not even possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) Has anyone here read Vance's memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, or seen the movie? I think I need to check it out, now that Vance has emerged as Trump's VP candidate. Apparently, the guy grew up in poverty in Ohio and was raised by his maternal grandparents-- due to his parents' divorce and mother's drug addiction. He served as a Marine Corps correspondent in Iraq, then graduated summa cum laude from Ohio State, then Yale Law School, before working for Peter Thiel and becoming a venture capitalist. Quite a story. But is he a sociopath? We, certainly, have to wonder about his professed willingness to block the certification of U.S. elections for Trump. Edited July 16 by W. Niederhut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 As for as polls, predictions, etc.... I find the pollyvote approach the most interesting. Here a hierarchical approach is used (1) polling data is averaged on a daily basis (2) predictions from political science models are averaged on a daily basis (3) predictions from betting markets are averaged Then the predictions from the averages of (1) (2) and (3) are averaged to get the final prediction. Seems to have outperformed 538 and RCP in predicting share of the popular vote since 2004. https://www.pollyvote.com article on how it works for those interested https://www.wuwf.org/local-politics/2020-12-03/pollyvote-proves-accurate-again btw - averaging forecasts is a really good idea if you have to generate a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 The JD Vance we see today was wholly created in Peter Thiel's lab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of the Presidential election every time since 1980; he doesn't count his pick of Gore as incorrect, as he justifiably believes the SC stole it for Bush. His method can applied to elections prior to 1980 as well. He has has picked Biden to win this year. Incumbency and a roaring economy are a powerful combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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