Bill Fite Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Prof Lichtman's model was cited by some as a reason that Biden should run for re-election. Here - right here - the Prof goes through and explains his 11 keys. Interestingly, he says that Biden should now resign so that Kamala Harris could run as the incumbent turning one of the red keys blue. Should Biden resign? Is Biden not quite as deserving of all the praise he's received since his decision not to run? IOW, is he being selfish and not self-sacrificing? Or Is the Prof a little to enamoured with his keys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Harris/Walz rally in Glendale, AZ Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Report: Trump calls Harris a "bitch" (axios.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 (edited) Another view of the Harris-/Walz rally in Arizona yesterday: Edited August 10 by Douglas Caddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Gallaway Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 (edited) 4 hours ago, Bill Fite said: Prof Lichtman's model was cited by some as a reason that Biden should run for re-election. Here - right here - the Prof goes through and explains his 11 keys. Interestingly, he says that Biden should now resign so that Kamala Harris could run as the incumbent turning one of the red keys blue. Should Biden resign? Is Biden not quite as deserving of all the praise he's received since his decision not to run? IOW, is he being selfish and not self-sacrificing? Or Is the Prof a little to enamoured with his keys? I agree Bill. You'd think he'd be hiding his head after his prediction of Democrat demise unless they keep Biden on the ticket. Right now we'd be restlessly thrashing about losing one by one the battleground states in the polls, then losing Virginia, New Hampshire, New Jersey!, and shaking in our boots at the thought of the next debate, but being reassured here that a Dem victory was in the bag! But now the the guy is back, claims that polls don't matter anymore, but somehow his keys still do! Now he boldly does a double reverse and proclaims that Biden should now resign? He's tweaking his keys so that he can try to milk it all the way to the election! Edited August 10 by Kirk Gallaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Maureen Dowd on "Trump by the Numbers." https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/opinion/trump-race-numbers-ratings.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B04.Pfya.e1x_9DRaXVfu&smid=url-share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 59 minutes ago, Douglas Caddy said: Maureen Dowd on "Trump by the Numbers." https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/opinion/trump-race-numbers-ratings.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B04.Pfya.e1x_9DRaXVfu&smid=url-share "like a blender going at full speed with the top off" - what a great description of Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Caddy Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 (edited) Never been a fan of Nate Silver. But I am a huge fan of Carl Allen. Like myself, he believes Trump was always going to lose this election; the only question is by how much. https://realcarlallen.substack.com/p/the-snapshot-analogy Edited August 10 by Matt Allison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 35 minutes ago, Matt Allison said: https://realcarlallen.substack.com/p/the-snapshot-analogy Quote This is not because polls are predictions, but because they are, properly understood, the best tools we have for informing those predictions. Not sure I understand the meaning of this sentence. I lean towards the Pollyvote approach - average predictions from models, polls and online betting markets, etc... Averages of model predictions usually work pretty well. In data science they renamed this approach 'ensemble of models'. They renamed everything to make people think that there was this new thing 'Data Science' when in fact it was just programming, stats and operations research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 27 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: I lean towards the Pollyvote approach - average predictions from models, polls and online betting markets, etc... It's always a subjective exercise. While I wish it could be purely driven by only factual data, the reality is that there has been an effort to pollute the dataset by partisan pollsters (like Rasmussen for example) because it is now a given that polls are basically the primary drivers of political narratives. So if you want an accurate picture, a person has to do a lot of digging on what datasets these aggregators are using. Trump is without question a dummy in the general sense, but he does have generally good political instincts (or at least he used to before the dementia took hold), and understands optics better than most because that is the way his simple brain functions; aesthetics are everything to him. https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/michael-cohen-poll-rigging/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 An example of what traitor Clarence Thomas' tie-breaking vote in Citizens United did to this country: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Ah yes. The perfect metaphor. Trump's campaign is a sinking ship. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 If the US wants to put unemployed miners back to work - don't build skyscrapers for this - just use the mine shafts of the mines that have been closed. The next world’s tallest building could be a 3,000-feet-high battery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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