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Taking seriously Oswald's front steps alibi claim


Greg Doudna

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This continues a discussion with Pat Speer. (With thanks to the participants on Tony Krome's forum who contributed in discussions, and the work of the website of Bart Kamp for resources of photos and information, http://www.prayer-man.com.)

~ ~ ~

Handwritten notes either written in real-time during Oswald's interrogation or immediately after from memory, the earliest and most reliable written information concerning what Oswald told his interrogators

  • In handwritten notes of Hosty (FBI), Oswald told his interrogators he "went out to watch P Parade", that is, he went out to the front steps to watch the Presidential Parade.
  • In handwritten notes of Fritz (DPD), Oswald told his interrogators he went "out front with Shelly".
  • Shelley stood in front of the glass doors out front on the top landing as the presidential limousine passed the Book Depository (TSBD). Shelley left those steps almost immediately, and with Billy Lovelady ran west. Both Shelley and Lovelady testified they observed, from positions away from the front steps, officer Marrion Baker and Roy Truly at the front steps as they were entering the TSBD front entrance. The Darnell film at ca. 30 seconds after the final shot shows Shelley and Lovelady, both now missing from the persons on the front steps, running west and shows an east-running Marrion Baker arriving to the steps of the TSBD. Shelley did not return to the front steps, or anywhere in the front area, after running west less than 30 seconds after the final shot.
  • Therefore Oswald's claim that he was out front with Shelley was a claim to be out on the front steps at the time of the assassination, since Shelley was not in that front area at all later than ca. 5-10 seconds after the final shot in the assassination of JFK.

BUT

  • A written report of Secret Service Inspector Thomas Kelley says he asked Oswald if he had seen the parade and Oswald said no, he did not see the parade, even though he told Hosty he went out to see the presidential parade, and told Fritz he WAS out front when Shelley was there.
  • And, in his written typed reporting and testimony, Fritz said Oswald told him he was on the first floor eating his lunch in the domino room when the presidential parade passed by (the TSBD front steps).
  • This is best understood by reading for "presidential parade" the limousine of the president and First Lady passing by the TSBD visible from the TSBD front steps looking straight forward. That occurred ca. 12-15 seconds before the final shot. Oswald's statements indicate that he missed seeing the President and First Lady because he got out on the front steps too late, even though that is why he went out on the front steps, but he was out there when Shelley was, at the time of the shots when the limousine was further down Elm. 

WAS OSWALD TELLING THE TRUTH IN CLAIMING HE WAS OUT ON THE FRONT STEPS WITH SHELLEY AT THE TIME OF THE ASSASSINATION? 

  • There are photos of the front steps: Altgens 6 (= Z153-155), and two film clips of the TSBD front steps, Wiegman starting at 2 seconds before the final shot; Darnell ending ca. 30 seconds after the final shot.
  • These two films show TSBD employees standing on the front steps watching the parade.
  • Every person on the TSBD front steps, without exception, is a TSBD employee.
  • Practically every person in those photos is identified, with one notable exception: an unidentified figure in the northwest of the steps in the shade, who has not been securely identified as any other TSBD employee or person.
  • For convenience this unidentified TSBD employee has been referred to as "Prayer Man" (PM). 
  • This figure is only two persons removed from where Shelley was standing at the time of Wiegman (when the shots were fired killing JFK).
  • Oswald under arrest could not have known that Shelley was out on the front steps (as opposed to somewhere else, watching the parade somewhere on Elm Street). Does verification that Shelley was on the front steps, in agreement with Oswald's claim, support that the source of Oswald's knowledge was because he, Oswald, was there where he said he was, when he said he was, that his alibi could be true?

KEY POINTS OF THE UNIDENTIFIED FIGURE WHO IS WHERE OSWALD CLAIMED TO BE:

  • No facial recognition--photo quality too poor to see facial features.
  • White male because of hairline: early stage male pattern baldness present in ca. 25% of American young white men ages 20-30 (with thanks to Andrej Stancak calling this to attention), in agreement with the same early stage male pattern baldness as Oswald.
  • TSBD employee (because every other person without exception on the steps is).
  • But practically every other if not every other TSBD employee's whereabouts are accounted for.
  • What PM is wearing is in agreement with what Oswald was wearing that morning: two items of upper-body clothing that morning while working. A white T-shirt, and over that, worn almost like a shirt, a gray wool-like, flannel-like old work jacket worn over the white T-shirt. (Oswald wore a light maroon button-down dress shirt from Irving that morning, CE 151, but was not wearing that while working--it was hung up in the domino room.) PM's visible clothing is compatible with Oswald's old gray flannel-like work jacket in which Oswald worked, with sleeves rolled up to the elbows, worn loosely. PM shows visible white around a neckline of the upper-body garment, consistent with Oswald's white T-shirt underneath the old gray flannel-like work jacket Oswald was wearing. (For establishment of the flannel-like old gray work jacket Oswald was wearing that morning see: https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/30819-oswald-jacket-identification-question/#comments.) 
  • An unexplained but noticeable slightly darker apparent vertical line or splotch on PM's neck in the Darnell photos corresponds to and may reflect a distinctive elongated triangle-shaped darker birthmark spot on Oswald's skin on his throat or front of his neck area.
  • Height. Which step PM is standing on cannot be seen; it is either the top landing or first step down. By comparison with the known height of Buell Frazier who is standing on the top landing level of height 6'0.5": if PM's weight-bearing foot is on the first step down, PM's height is 5'9", in agreement with Oswald's height of 5'9".
  • Even though neither of PM's legs are visible, PM may be standing with his weight-bearing right leg on the first step down, with PM leaning against the west wall with the fleshy part of his right shoulder and the flannel-like work jacket for cushioning, and non-weight-bearing left foot resting lightly somewhere else, giving a 3-point balance support stance, of a manual-labor TSBD white male employee of the same height as Oswald, located where Oswald under arrest told his interrogators he was.
  • PM is holding a shiny reflective object in one hand, and between Wiegman and Darnell can be seen raising it to his mouth and back down again to chest level in front of him, suggesting the shiny reflective object may be a beverage such as a coke. Oswald told his interrogators that before he went out front to see the P Parade that he had gone to the second floor and bought a coke to have with his lunch on the first floor. The apparent coke in PM's hand--not true of any other figure on the steps--corresponds to Oswald telling his interrogators he had a coke in hand on the first floor at that time, before he stepped out to see the president and First Lady.
  • In contrast to these multiple points of similarity, there is no decisive or unequivocal falsification on photographic grounds of an identification of PM as Oswald, or as an identification of anyone else. There is no witness testimony identifying PM as anyone else. A longstanding visual perception seen by many that PM appears heavyset has been an optical illusion all along. This is new information not previously known. What has been seen as a wide lower body and a left leg stretched out of PM is not PM's body or left leg at all, but the back of a dark-colored or black shawl and dress of a woman walking up the steps toward PM which has illusorily been seen as Oswald's body. In fact the top of this woman's head comes up to the level of PM's wrist and is the explanation for what has appeared an unusually narrow wrist of PM in some frames. Nothing of PM's left side profile (viewer's right), and nothing of PM's left leg, is in fact visible at all--that is what we may call the back of a dark-dressed woman seen in front of PM from the viewer's point of view.
  • An objection that no witnesses testified to having seen Oswald at the front steps has no bearing on photographic analysis and is not to be considered a significant objection or cause to reject that reporter Pierce Allman asked Oswald for directions to a phone at that front steps area (no witness said they saw Oswald at the front steps, remember), or as a basis to reject that Oswald left the Book Depository building that afternoon (no witness identified Oswald as leaving the Book Depository by the front, and no witness at the time and only one witness years later, Buell Frazier, identified Oswald as having left from the rear of the building). If Oswald stepped out on to the front steps moments after the presidential limousine passed by the front steps and just moments before the final shot, in shadow, at the rear of and to the side of the others in shadow compared to the bright sunlight in everyone else's eyes and focused attention on the parade--and how briefly PM was there (ca. 40 seconds estimated before slipping out through the same glass doors again)--PM going unnoticed may be less surprising than it may seem, no more surprising than when PM pointed Pierce Allman to a phone from that location, or PM exiting one of the doors of the TSBD to walk away and leave the building without any witnesses at the time saying they saw Oswald. Even Pierce Allman himself, who did encounter Oswald at the front steps, did not identify the man he encountered as Oswald though he accepted from the Secret Service who told him it was--no one did, even though it was Oswald--illustrating how nondescript a non-speaking Oswald was that day at that location.
  • A reconstruction and tentative timing of Oswald's movements, if Oswald's alibi claim was correct and PM was him, can be developed and argued consistent with other facts and testimony: at ca. 30-35 seconds from the final shot, Oswald slipped back from the front steps behind the glass door into the vestibule. At ca. 35-40 seconds reporter Pierce Allman rushed in looking for a phone asked Oswald in that vestibule to direct him to a phone which Oswald did. At ca. 40 seconds Oswald began movement with intention to leave the building unnoticed and evasively by means of going up the SE stairwell by the front steps to the second floor, across, and back down the NW stairwell and out the rear door. However Oswald was interrupted in this by the encounter with Marrion Baker as he was about to go out to that rear stairwell. Baker saw him about to exit out to the rear stairwell and accosted him at gunpoint until Truly told Baker Oswald worked there and was OK, at ca. 90 seconds. After that encounter interrupting his intended exit, Oswald bought a second coke to support a deceptive appearance (not true) that his purpose had been to get a coke, took off his old gray work jacket and wearing only his white T-shirt walked past Mrs. Reid as if he was headed back down the SE stairwell again. But he did not go down the SE stairwell again but instead returned to retrieve his old gray work jacket and descended by the rear stairwell and then made his way out the rear of the TSBD, at perhaps ca. 120-140 seconds, following which he was witnessed by Buell Frazier on foot crossing Houston and headed east on Elm.
  • The points of agreement in physical description between Oswald, and the photographs of the otherwise-unidentified PM located where Oswald told his interrogators he was at the time of the shots, in a way Oswald could not possibly have known or arranged, combined with practically every other if not every other TSBD employee than Oswald being accounted for elsewhere, suggest serious consideration that Oswald's alibi claim could have been correct. If it was, Oswald might have been charged instead with conspiracy in the assassination, aiding and abetting, as well as face separate charges for the murder of officer Tippit, all charges which would be brought to trial and adjudicated if he had lived. But Oswald would be exonerated from having been the shooter at the sixth floor. And compared to what has always been thought, that would be big, opening up an Innocence Project genre investigation at the center of a pivotal moment in America's history.  
Edited by Greg Doudna
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Greg - An interesting and as per usual very thorough post. Was there in your view any particular reason Oswald exited the rear? Why go back in the building at all? 

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1 minute ago, Paul Brancato said:

Greg - An interesting and as per usual very thorough post. Was there in your view any particular reason Oswald exited the rear? Why go back in the building at all? 

Prior to the question of why is the fact: that he was on the second floor attested by Baker and Mrs. Reid. Then the second fact (although this is an argument), important, from Roffman and Wm Kelly, of the pneumatic door and Oswald seen by Baker as he was about to come out the door to the rear stairwell, not having gone into the second floor area FROM the rear stairs. With those facts, then the question of why. Well we know from every other of Oswald's movements from TSBD to bus to cab to rooming house, the changes in clothing etc. that Oswald was acting evasively, fact. Why can be debated, but he appears to want not to be tailed or make it easy to be traced if and when witnesses saw him were asked. His obtaining of a pistol at his rooming house, not his normal practice, can be interpreted not as intent to use it to kill anyone but simple being scared and for self-defense.

With those established, then the intended exit to the rear stairwell becomes an interpretation or conjecture as to why, that the reason was to go down the rear steps and exit to minimize being seen, compared to walking away from the front where there were gazillions of people who would see him, and Oswald might have seen one or two in particular who would recognize him if he did walk by out front. There could be additional reasons to make a last stop to the domino room first, to pick up his CE 151 maroon button-down dress shirt hanging there, perhaps a last restroom stop.

Finally, another fact: nobody saw him leave by the front, out of the gazillions of people out front. Whereas a credible and sound witness, Buell Frazier, did see Oswald leaving from the back (he saw Oswald walking on Houston after having come out of the back). So the known witness testimony supports Oswald having exited from the back, and the reason he would do so, is conjectured but makes excellent sense as the way he could do so with least attention drawn to his exit of thew building. So that is my answer to your question.

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3 minutes ago, Sean Coleman said:

What are your thoughts on Rambler Roger Craig? I quite like the guy…

My answer: studies cited by the Innocence Project show eyewitness identifications of persons they don’t already know are not reliable at over 50 feet. Craig was waaaaay over 50 feet away in his sighting and claim to identify Oswald as the man he saw running into that rambler. No corroboration or other reason to suppose that man was Oswald, none. Other witnesses and evidence locate Oswald elsewhere on foot other than being driven away in a rambler. (Compare to: witness Mary Bledsoe who already knew him saw him at ca 2 feet away; cabbie Whaley at distance 1-3 feet away.) Seems clear Craig was just mistaken. I am a little baffled why the Craig Oswald identification claim continues to have legs and belief in light of how weak its basis is.

However this issue is peripheral to and does not affect the Oswald alibi issue that I can see. 

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5 hours ago, Greg Doudna said:

This continues a discussion with Pat Speer. (With thanks to the participants on Tony Krome's forum who contributed in discussions, and the work of the website of Bart Kamp for resources of photos and information, http://www.prayer-man.com.)

~ ~ ~

Handwritten notes either written in real-time during Oswald's interrogation or immediately after from memory, the earliest and most reliable written information concerning what Oswald told his interrogators

  • In handwritten notes of Hosty (FBI), Oswald told his interrogators he "went out to watch P Parade", that is, he went out to the front steps to watch the Presidential Parade.
  • In handwritten notes of Fritz (DPD), Oswald told his interrogators he went "out front with Shelly".
  • Shelley stood in front of the glass doors out front on the top landing as the presidential limousine passed the Book Depository (TSBD). Shelley left those steps almost immediately, and with Billy Lovelady ran west. Both Shelley and Lovelady testified they observed, from positions away from the front steps, officer Marrion Baker and Roy Truly at the front steps as they were entering the TSBD front entrance. The Darnell film at ca. 30 seconds after the final shot shows Shelley and Lovelady, both now missing from the persons on the front steps, running west and shows an east-running Marrion Baker arriving to the steps of the TSBD. Shelley did not return to the front steps, or anywhere in the front area, after running west less than 30 seconds after the final shot.
  • Therefore Oswald's claim that he was out front with Shelley was a claim to be out on the front steps at the time of the assassination, since Shelley was not in that front area at all later than ca. 5-10 seconds after the final shot in the assassination of JFK.

BUT

  • A written report of Secret Service Inspector Thomas Kelley says he asked Oswald if he had seen the parade and Oswald said no, he did not see the parade, even though he told Hosty he went out to see the presidential parade, and told Fritz he WAS out front when Shelley was there.
  • And, in his written typed reporting and testimony, Fritz said Oswald told him he was on the first floor eating his lunch in the domino room when the presidential parade passed by (the TSBD front steps).
  • This is best understood by reading for "presidential parade" the limousine of the president and First Lady passing by the TSBD visible from the TSBD front steps looking straight forward. That occurred ca. 12-15 seconds before the final shot. Oswald's statements indicate that he missed seeing the President and First Lady because he got out on the front steps too late, even though that is why he went out on the front steps, but he was out there when Shelley was, at the time of the shots when the limousine was further down Elm. 

WAS OSWALD TELLING THE TRUTH IN CLAIMING HE WAS OUT ON THE FRONT STEPS WITH SHELLEY AT THE TIME OF THE ASSASSINATION? 

  • There are photos of the front steps: Altgens 6 (= Z153-155), and two film clips of the TSBD front steps, Wiegman starting at 2 seconds before the final shot; Darnell ending ca. 30 seconds after the final shot.
  • These two films show TSBD employees standing on the front steps watching the parade.
  • Every person on the TSBD front steps, without exception, is a TSBD employee.
  • Practically every person in those photos is identified, with one notable exception: an unidentified figure in the northwest of the steps in the shade, who has not been securely identified as any other TSBD employee or person.
  • For convenience this unidentified TSBD employee has been referred to as "Prayer Man" (PM). 
  • This figure is only two persons removed from where Shelley was standing at the time of Wiegman (when the shots were fired killing JFK).
  • Oswald under arrest could not have known that Shelley was out on the front steps (as opposed to somewhere else, watching the parade somewhere on Elm Street). Does verification that Shelley was on the front steps, in agreement with Oswald's claim, support that the source of Oswald's knowledge was because he, Oswald, was there where he said he was, when he said he was, that his alibi could be true?

KEY POINTS OF THE UNIDENTIFIED FIGURE WHO IS WHERE OSWALD CLAIMED TO BE:

  • No facial recognition--photo quality too poor to see facial features.
  • White male because of hairline: early stage male pattern baldness present in ca. 25% of American young white men ages 20-30 (with thanks to Andrej Stancak calling this to attention), in agreement with the same early stage male pattern baldness as Oswald.
  • TSBD employee (because every other person without exception on the steps is).
  • But practically every other if not every other TSBD employee's whereabouts are accounted for.
  • What PM is wearing is in agreement with what Oswald was wearing that morning: two items of upper-body clothing that morning while working. A white T-shirt, and over that, worn almost like a shirt, a gray wool-like, flannel-like old work jacket worn over the white T-shirt. (Oswald wore a light maroon button-down dress shirt from Irving that morning, CE 151, but was not wearing that while working--it was hung up in the domino room.) PM's visible clothing is compatible with Oswald's old gray flannel-like work jacket in which Oswald worked, with sleeves rolled up to the elbows, worn loosely. PM shows visible white around a neckline of the upper-body garment, consistent with Oswald's white T-shirt underneath the old gray flannel-like work jacket Oswald was wearing. (For establishment of the flannel-like old gray work jacket Oswald was wearing that morning see: https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/30819-oswald-jacket-identification-question/#comments.) 
  • An unexplained but noticeable slightly darker apparent vertical line or splotch on PM's neck in the Darnell photos corresponds to and may reflect a distinctive elongated triangle-shaped darker birthmark spot on Oswald's skin on his throat or front of his neck area.
  • Height. Which step PM is standing on cannot be seen; it is either the top landing or first step down. By comparison with the known height of Buell Frazier who is standing on the top landing level of height 6'0.5": if PM's weight-bearing foot is on the first step down, PM's height is 5'9", in agreement with Oswald's height of 5'9".
  • Even though neither of PM's legs are visible, PM may be standing with his weight-bearing right leg on the first step down, with PM leaning against the west wall with the fleshy part of his right shoulder and the flannel-like work jacket for cushioning, and non-weight-bearing left foot resting lightly somewhere else, giving a 3-point balance support stance, of a manual-labor TSBD white male employee of the same height as Oswald, located where Oswald under arrest told his interrogators he was.
  • PM is holding a shiny reflective object in one hand, and between Wiegman and Darnell can be seen raising it to his mouth and back down again to chest level in front of him, suggesting the shiny reflective object may be a beverage such as a coke. Oswald told his interrogators that before he went out front to see the P Parade that he had gone to the second floor and bought a coke to have with his lunch on the first floor. The apparent coke in PM's hand--not true of any other figure on the steps--corresponds to Oswald telling his interrogators he had a coke in hand on the first floor at that time, before he stepped out to see the president and First Lady.
  • In contrast to these multiple points of similarity, there is no decisive or unequivocal falsification on photographic grounds of an identification of PM as Oswald, or as an identification of anyone else. There is no witness testimony identifying PM as anyone else. A longstanding visual perception seen by many that PM appears heavyset has been an optical illusion all along. This is new information not previously known. What has been seen as a wide lower body and a left leg stretched out of PM is not PM's body or left leg at all, but the back of a dark-colored or black shawl and dress of a woman walking up the steps toward PM which has illusorily been seen as Oswald's body. In fact the top of this woman's head comes up to the level of PM's wrist and is the explanation for what has appeared an unusually narrow wrist of PM in some frames. Nothing of PM's left side profile (viewer's right), and nothing of PM's left leg, is in fact visible at all--that is what we may call the back of a dark-dressed woman seen in front of PM from the viewer's point of view.
  • An objection that no witnesses testified to having seen Oswald at the front steps has no bearing on photographic analysis and is not to be considered a significant objection or cause to reject that reporter Pierce Allman asked Oswald for directions to a phone at that front steps area (no witness said they saw Oswald at the front steps, remember), or as a basis to reject that Oswald left the Book Depository building that afternoon (no witness identified Oswald as leaving the Book Depository by the front, and no witness at the time and only one witness years later, Buell Frazier, identified Oswald as having left from the rear of the building). If Oswald stepped out on to the front steps moments after the presidential limousine passed by the front steps and just moments before the final shot, in shadow, at the rear of and to the side of the others in shadow compared to the bright sunlight in everyone else's eyes and focused attention on the parade--and how briefly PM was there (ca. 40 seconds estimated before slipping out through the same glass doors again)--PM going unnoticed may be less surprising than it may seem, no more surprising than when PM pointed Pierce Allman to a phone from that location, or PM exiting one of the doors of the TSBD to walk away and leave the building without any witnesses at the time saying they saw Oswald. Even Pierce Allman himself, who did encounter Oswald at the front steps, did not identify the man he encountered as Oswald though he accepted from the Secret Service who told him it was--no one did, even though it was Oswald--illustrating how nondescript a non-speaking Oswald was that day at that location.
  • A reconstruction and tentative timing of Oswald's movements, if Oswald's alibi claim was correct and PM was him, can be developed and argued consistent with other facts and testimony: at ca. 30-35 seconds from the final shot, Oswald slipped back from the front steps behind the glass door into the vestibule. At ca. 35-40 seconds reporter Pierce Allman rushed in looking for a phone asked Oswald in that vestibule to direct him to a phone which Oswald did. At ca. 40 seconds Oswald began movement with intention to leave the building unnoticed and evasively by means of going up the SE stairwell by the front steps to the second floor, across, and back down the NW stairwell and out the rear door. However Oswald was interrupted in this by the encounter with Marrion Baker as he was about to go out to that rear stairwell. Baker saw him about to exit out to the rear stairwell and accosted him at gunpoint until Truly told Baker Oswald worked there and was OK, at ca. 90 seconds. After that encounter interrupting his intended exit, Oswald bought a second coke to support a deceptive appearance (not true) that his purpose had been to get a coke, took off his old gray work jacket and wearing only his white T-shirt walked past Mrs. Reid as if he was headed back down the SE stairwell again. But he did not go down the SE stairwell again but instead returned to retrieve his old gray work jacket and descended by the rear stairwell and then made his way out the rear of the TSBD, at perhaps ca. 120-140 seconds, following which he was witnessed by Buell Frazier on foot crossing Houston and headed east on Elm.
  • The points of agreement in physical description between Oswald, and the photographs of the otherwise-unidentified PM located where Oswald told his interrogators he was at the time of the shots, in a way Oswald could not possibly have known or arranged, combined with practically every other if not every other TSBD employee than Oswald being accounted for elsewhere, suggest serious consideration that Oswald's alibi claim could have been correct. If it was, Oswald might have been charged instead with conspiracy in the assassination, aiding and abetting, as well as face separate charges for the murder of officer Tippit, all charges which would be brought to trial and adjudicated if he had lived. But Oswald would be exonerated from having been the shooter at the sixth floor. And compared to what has always been thought, that would be big, opening up an Innocence Project genre investigation at the center of a pivotal moment in America's history.  

Oh my. At quick glance, I see problem after problem.  

1. The notes were almost certainly not written during the interview, but appear instead to be notes for a draft of a report written within a day or so of the interrogation. These notes appear to be at odds with the report filed by Hosty and Bookhout. So it could be that Hosty thought Oswald said he was outside, while Bookhout did not, and that this was then excluded from the report they filed jointly. Or...Hosty's notes about going outside to see the parade may have been a reference to what Oswald said when asked why he left the building. We don't know. 

2. The "out with Bill Shelley" is vague. People desperately want to believe this was Oswald's answer to a question about where he was at the time for the shooting, but he never said any such thing to the press or to his family, and everyone present at the interrogation including Fritz claimed Oswald mentioned Shelley as someone who saw him exit the building, not with whom he was standing during the shooting. 

3. Bill Shelley claimed he was asked to guard an elevator by Truly, and that a cop came into the building, and wanted to look around. And that he then took this cop upstairs in the elevator. This matches up perfectly with what Sawyer claimed...that a man standing by an elevator took him upstairs. Importantly, moreover, this was the front elevator, that only went up to the fourth floor. When discussing Vickie Adams, furthermore, Shelley said he couldn't remember whether he saw her downstairs or on the fourth floor. This proves he was the man who took Sawyer up in the elevator. And this proves he was standing at the front of the building when Oswald is presumed to have left the building. 

SO...did Oswald run into Shelley by the front door on his way out of the building. Well, if so, why would Shelley claim this didn't happen? 

Uhh...to me it's obvious. Most everyone was under the impression, true or not, that Oswald had killed a cop after leaving the building. IF Shelley had admitted he watched Oswald leave the building after being told to guard the elevator and make sure no one exited, his life would have been forever tarnished, and he would have been forever known as the man whose failure to act led to the death of a cop, in a city where such things are not forgiven. 

4. The filmed footage of Prayer Man does not look like Oswald, and, IMO, never did. In recent months a slightly clearer version of the footage became available, and some of the most strident believers in Prayer Man could see this for themselves, and quickly claimed this clearer footage was a fake rushed out to shut down their arguments. Only... It turned out that this footage was not actually new but footage that had been in possession of the Sixth Floor Museum for decades, long before whispers of Prayer Man exploded from this forum. 

NOTE: Edited to correct a presumably incorrect statement, which was based upon an unsupported claim in the Warren Report. 

Edited by Pat Speer
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1 hour ago, Pat Speer said:

Oh my. At quick glance, I see problem after problem.  

1. The notes were almost certainly not written during the interview, but appear instead to be notes for a draft of a report written within a day or so of the interrogation. These notes appear to be at odds with the report filed by Hosty and Bookhout. So it could be that Hosty thought Oswald said he was outside, while Bookhout did not, and that this was then excluded from the report they filed jointly. Or...Hosty's notes about going outside to see the parade may have been a reference to what Oswald said when asked why he left the building. We don't know. 

2. The "out with Bill Shelley" is vague. People desperately want to believe this was Oswald's answer to a question about where he was at the time for the shooting, but he never said any such thing to the press or to his family, and everyone present at the interrogation including Fritz claimed Oswald mentioned Shelley as someone who saw him exit the building, not with whom he was standing during the shooting. 

3. Bill Shelley claimed he was asked to guard an elevator by Truly, and that a cop came into the building, and wanted to look around. And that he then took this cop upstairs in the elevator. This matches up perfectly what Sawyer claimed...that a man standing by an elevator took him upstairs. Importantly, moreover, this was the front elevator, that only went up to the fourth floor. When discussing Vickie Adams, furthermore, Shelley said he couldn't remember whether he saw her downstairs or on the fourth floor. This proves he was the man who took Sawyer up in the elevator. And this proves he was standing at the front of the building when Oswald is presumed to have left the building. 

SO...did Oswald run into Shelley by the front door and ask Shelley if he could leave the building, or assume by his actions he could leave the building? We can assume so. Well, if so, why would Shelley claim this didn't happen? 

Uhh...to me it's obvious. Most everyone was under the impression, true or not, that Oswald had killed a cop after leaving the building. IF Shelley had admitted he told Oswald he could leave or didn't object to him leaving, his life would have been forever tarnished, and he would have been forever known as the man whose actions led to the death of a cop, in a city where such things are not forgiven. 

4. The filmed footage of Prayer Man does not look like Oswald, and, IMO, never did. In recent months a slightly clearer version of the footage became available, and some of the most strident believers in Prayer Man could see this for themselves, and quickly claimed this clearer footage was a fake rushed out to shut down their arguments. Only... It turned out that this footage was not actually new but footage that had been in possession of the Sixth Floor Museum for decades, long before whispers of Prayer Man exploded from this forum. 


Pat, could you say where you are getting anyone saying Shelley said anything to Oswald directly or vice versa? Not heard or overheard, but spoken directly to and from as a claim?

I forgot your argument was the elevator Shelley was guarding was the front one. I was thinking of the conventional view that it was the rear elevators. I will have to restudy your argument on that. If you are right on that then that could be argued to open up a second possibility for when a true claim of a Oswald to have gone out front with Shelley could have happened, although that still does not attest or establish that Shelley was “out front”. But first I need to review your argument on that itself. 

I do not understand your objection to the force of the handwritten notes. They precede the typed reports. They are the earliest record of those witness memories. They are exactly like FBI agents routinely interviewed witnesses, wrote up notes afterward while memory was fresh, then wrote up typed reports from those notes, in that order.

I read out front “to watch P Parade” after Oswald got his coke for his lunch (first coke, pre-shots, for his lunch, pre-shots), and “out front with Shelley”, to refer to the same thing told two ways. The simplest clearest meaning to me. He said he was out there. “Who else was out there?” Obvious follow-up question to an alibi claim. “Shelley”. (He might have named more, like Lovelady and Frazier too.) Fritz says “says he went out front with Shelley”, naming at least one of whom Oswald named. 

There is a reasonable explanation for confusion of the interrogators over Oswald’s alibi. Analysis of Oswald’s alibi claim by me and others has him—this is exegeting Oswald’s own story or claims prior to the question of whether the claims are true—as Oswald said he went out front WITH INTENT TO SEE the President and First Lady go by, but although that was his intent he did not see them go by, but he did go out front, at a time Shelley was OUT FRONT (= time of the shots, if “out front” is taken literally), and also at a time when Allman with the crewcut asked him at that location (inside the vestibule actually according to Allman) to point him to a phone, for which ca 35 seconds or so is more realistic for the timing of Allman and Oswald there than 3 minutes, given that Allman said he was running top speed from the moment of the last shot with urgency to get to a phone (runs from SW corner of Elm and Houston across Elm, runs to and back from GK fence, then dead run by his account east on Elm to front steps of TSBD and in the door, which makes sense about the same time as dead-run Baker got there and entered, ca 35 seconds not 3 minutes for Allmans arrival and the Oswald encounter, when PM was there. I believe Allman’s top speed running may be seen in Darnell, the other man in Darnell running same direction though independently of Baker in uniform). 

There is no claim in any of the sources or witnesses that Oswald said he spoke directly to Shelley or vice versa, or that Oswald claimed Shelley told him he could leave. That is an urban legend in JFK research, Bugliosi noted that in an endnote. As I read it, Oswald was standing close enough to Shelley on the steps to have overheard Shelley say something. Not necessarily a claim to have spoken to Shelley directly. No basis for Oswald claiming Shelley told him he could leave. Instead, Oswald claimed he heard Shelley say there would be no more work that day, and Oswald on his own decided from that, he explained, that he decided to leave. 

Your last point 4 is of no relevance to me since I do not claim or assume or believe or suspect the NBC/6FM copy of Darnell has been altered. Red herring. I do not at all agree that there is any non-heavyset disagreement between PM and Oswald or what Oswald was wearing that morning, and the heavyset appearance is fully illusory from previous viewers not recognizing the back of the woman’s shawl and clothing in front of Oswald (from viewer’s point of view) climbing the steps. I urge you to revisit examination of the PM photographs with a fresh look if and when you acknowledge the existence of that. I am unable to post a photo gif that exists that will make this clear because my quota is maxed out and nothing on earth I have tried can I find a way to delete any past images I have up. But once you see it, you will SEE it. The obese or heavyweight objection is just gone, never was there all along, never was there. The issue then goes to whether other issues weigh for or against any identification of PM and what facts can be established and known relative to that beyond reasonable doubt. 

Edited by Greg Doudna
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Greg:

We went throught some of your points on JFK Assassination Coverup Kennedys forum, thread "PM2 at the door". May I comment on a few points:

  • Shelley stood in front of the glass doors out front on the top landing as the presidential limousine passed the Book Depository (TSBD). Shelley left those steps almost immediately, and with Billy Lovelady ran west. Both Shelley and Lovelady testified they observed, from positions away from the front steps, officer Marrion Baker and Roy Truly at the front steps as they were entering the TSBD front entrance. The Darnell film at ca. 30 seconds after the final shot shows Shelley and Lovelady, both now missing from the persons on the front steps, running west and shows an east-running Marrion Baker arriving to the steps of the TSBD. Shelley did not return to the front steps, or anywhere in the front area, after running west less than 30 seconds after the final shot.
  • Therefore Oswald's claim that he was out front with Shelley was a claim to be out on the front steps at the time of the assassination, since Shelley was not in that front area at all later than ca. 5-10 seconds after the final shot in the assassination of JFK.

Your take of Shelley's whereabouts contradicts his testimony for the Warren Commission in which he stated he stayed at his spot in the centre of the top landing for a minute. This period covers also the period when the doorway was captured in Darnell film. He also said that he then heard Gloria Calvary telling them about the shooting which means he was still in the doorway. Gloria Calvary is seen in front of the doorway or on a lower step in Darnell which information adds some precision to his time estimate of one minute. To that, the same man is seen in the centre of the doorway in Altgens6, Wiegman and Darnell. Oswald may have changed words with Shelley while in the doorway, of course if he was Prayer Man. I have posted the analysis of three figures in the centre of the doorway on this forum before ("Prayer Man is a Man") - it rests on seeing a white blob above Shelley's hair. You seem to rely your observation on the 6FM version of Darnell which provides a blurred and distorted image of people in the doorway. I have provided the comparisons of the previously analysed version of Darnell still and the 6FM version on this forum and on JACK forum. The possibility of Lovelady and Shelley being away from the doorway is not supported by the two man seen in Gerda Dunkel gif, based on Couch/Darnell film - the two men do not walk together, they part their ways and the Lovelady type man is shorter than the Shelley type man; in reality Lovelady was taller than Shelley. 

  • An unexplained but noticeable slightly darker apparent vertical line or splotch on PM's neck in the Darnell photos corresponds to and may reflect a distinctive elongated triangle-shaped darker birthmark spot on Oswald's skin on his throat or front of his neck area.

This is a problem: you prefer interpreting the 6FM version of Darnell but not the previously analysed version of Darnell which does not show any "noticeable slightly darker apparent vertical line". You does not seem to register the distortions seen in the 6FM version. I have posted the comparison of a few human figures in the 6FM and the reference still on JACK forum, however, maybe I need to do it here as well. Please see the shape of Frazier' face (top two pictures) in previously known version (refreence) and the 6FM version. Frazier's face in the 6FM version is distorted, face bulged out and blurred. In the bottom panel, Shelley's face is round but it has a cross-like shape in the 6FM version. Didn't you mention a vertical line on Prayer Man's neck in the 6FM version? It was the same type of distortion that can be seen on the reference image. You may also see a clear separation of Shelley's dark hair (above the round white shape of his face) and the white blob above the dark strip which points two the presence of a taller person than Shelley having light-coloured hair behind him. It is imperative to use untouched, undistorted images when drawing any conclusions. 

 

comp_6fm_sprague.jpg?w=536

 

 

 

  • What PM is wearing is in agreement with what Oswald was wearing that morning: two items of upper-body clothing that morning while working. A white T-shirt, and over that, worn almost like a shirt, a gray wool-like, flannel-like old work jacket worn over the white T-shirt. (Oswald wore a light maroon button-down dress shirt from Irving that morning, CE 151, but was not wearing that while working--it was hung up in the domino room.) PM's visible clothing is compatible with Oswald's old gray flannel-like work jacket in which Oswald worked, with sleeves rolled up to the elbows, worn loosely. PM shows visible white around a neckline of the upper-body garment, consistent with Oswald's white T-shirt underneath the old gray flannel-like work jacket Oswald was wearing. (For establishment of the flannel-like old gray work jacket Oswald was wearing that morning see: https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/30819-oswald-jacket-identification-question/#comments.) 

Oswald wore a shirt CE 151 with sleeves rolled up to his elbows, and therefore it is possible that his naked foream culd be seen in Prayer Man's figure. Where did you find details of his clothing such as the shirt CE151 was in Domino room or that he wore flannel-like work jacket? I found compatibility between Prayer Man's shirt and CE151 - you may wish to visit the thread "Prayer Man was a Man" on this Forum.

4 hours ago, Greg Doudna said:

PM is holding a shiny reflective object in one hand, and between Wiegman and Darnell can be seen raising it to his mouth and back down again to chest level in front of him, suggesting the shiny reflective object may be a beverage such as a coke. Oswald told his interrogators that before he went out front to see the P Parade that he had gone to the second floor and bought a coke to have with his lunch on the first floor. The apparent coke in PM's hand--not true of any other figure on the steps--corresponds to Oswald telling his interrogators he had a coke in hand on the first floor at that time, before he stepped out to see the president and First Lady.

In my analysis, Prayer Man did not hold anything in his hands. The scattered light reflects from his naked right forearm and hands as he stood very close the the shadow line. If you write that he wore a shiny object, can you please delineate is so that everyone can see what you see?

 

4 hours ago, Greg Doudna said:

In contrast to these multiple points of similarity, there is no decisive or unequivocal falsification on photographic grounds of an identification of PM as Oswald, or as an identification of anyone else. There is no witness testimony identifying PM as anyone else. A longstanding visual perception seen by many that PM appears heavyset has been an optical illusion all along. This is new information not previously known. What has been seen as a wide lower body and a left leg stretched out of PM is not PM's body or left leg at all, but the back of a dark-colored or black shawl and dress of a woman walking up the steps toward PM which has illusorily been seen as Oswald's body. In fact the top of this woman's head comes up to the level of PM's wrist and is the explanation for what has appeared an unusually narrow wrist of PM in some frames. Nothing of PM's left side profile (viewer's right), and nothing of PM's left leg, is in fact visible at all--that is what we may call the back of a dark-dressed woman seen in front of PM from the viewer's point of view.

Prayer Man's bent left leg can be seen in Darnell film, and I was able to illustrate it with a 3D brightness coding of that area of Darnell still. You can find details on this analysis in the "Prayer Man is a Man" thread. If you say "nothing from the left leg..." can be seen, maybe you could write that you cannot see it allowing other researchers to see it. It reads here and elswhere like you are the one deciding what can be seen and what cannot be seen.

I appreciate a number of good points in your post, however, I miss objectivity and admission of limitations in some conclusions. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Andrej Stancak
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Andrej — you’ve seen the photos and gifs illustrating the existence of let us call Dark Clothed Woman, DCW, in the other discussion. I suspect it is not that you don’t see DCW, in those images but that you reject use of the 6FM/NBC as altered or forged. Nothing I can do about that, we’re not working from the same dataset. 

On the gray work jacket, I gave a link on that to where I explained that. I am certain Oswald was wearing a gray jacket of that description that morning and that it was over a white T-shirt, although I admit this is new and therefore understandably unfamiliar. On the maroon dress shirt CE 151 you and I agree he had that that morning and the only issue is was he wearing that button-down dress shirt to work in that morning. I am reconstructing no, though I concede that is reconstruction.

But at the same time you have no real evidence he was wearing it as opposed to it hanged up in the domino room while he worked, and wearing the gray jacket described by Frazier Oswald was wearing and which Frazier indicated was the kind of jacket worn during work at the TSBD by Oswald and others of the order fillers. I doubt any other manual workers at TSBD were working in dress shirts. I think the rapid sequence in the 2nd floor Baker (saw jacket on Oswald) and Mrs. Reid (saw white T-shirt only) favors only 2 not 3 upper body items of clothing he was wearing during work that morning. 

Edited by Greg Doudna
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12 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

Andrej — you’ve seen the photos and gifs illustrating the existence of let us call Dark Clothed Woman, DCL, in the other discussion. I suspect it is not that you don’t see DCL in those images but that you reject use of the 6FM/NBC as altered or forged. Nothing I can do about that, we’re not working from the same dataset. 

Greg: what are your reasons for using the more blurry and a clearly distorted 6FM version of Darnell instead of the version that was analysed throughout the whiole the whole history of Prayer Man thread?  

Also, where can you see any Dark Clothed Woman in the doorway and how does this woman relate to Prayer Man's identity?

17 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

On the gray work jacket, I gave a link on that to where I explained that. I am certain Oswald was wearing a gray jacket of that description that morning and that it was over a white T-shirt, although I admit this is new and therefore understandably unfamiliar. On the maroon dress shirt CE 151 you and I agree he had that that morning and the only issue is was he wearing that button-down dress shirt to work in that morning. I am reconstructing no, though I concede that is reconstruction

If Oswlad wore a woolen grey jacket while moving book boxes and if he was Prayer Man, how comes that it is possible to see his naked left forearm? This is possible with a shirt but not with jacket such as Oswald wore in the photograph taken in Russia. He had the CE151 on him that morning and he changed  it for a darker shirt CE150 when he got to 1026 North Beckley. This is why the officers searching his room at North Beckley found shirt CE151 in a drawer.

 

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1 hour ago, Greg Doudna said:


Pat, could you say where you are getting anyone saying Shelley said anything to Oswald directly or vice versa? Not heard or overheard, but spoken directly to and from as a claim?

I forgot your argument was the elevator Shelley was guarding was the front one. I was thinking of the conventional view that it was the rear elevators. I will have to restudy your argument on that. If you are right on that then that could be argued to open up a second possibility for when a true claim of a Oswald to have gone out front with Shelley could have happened, although that still does not attest or establish that Shelley was “out front”. But first I need to review your argument on that itself. 

I do not understand your objection to the force of the handwritten notes. They precede the typed reports. They are the earliest record of those witness memories. They are exactly like FBI agents routinely interviewed witnesses, wrote up notes afterward while memory was fresh, then wrote up typed reports from those notes, in that order.

I read out front “to watch P Parade” after Oswald got his coke for his lunch (first coke, pre-shots, for his lunch, pre-shots), and “out front with Shelley”, to refer to the same thing told two ways. The simplest clearest meaning to me. He said he was out there. “Who else was out there?” Obvious follow-up question to an alibi claim. “Shelley”. (He might have named more, like Lovelady and Frazier too.) Fritz says “says he went out front with Shelley”, naming at least one of whom Oswald named. 

There is a reasonable explanation for confusion of the interrogators over Oswald’s alibi. Analysis of Oswald’s alibi claim by me and others has him—this is exegeting Oswald’s own story or claims prior to the question of whether the claims are true—as Oswald said he went out front WITH INTENT TO SEE the President and First Lady go by, but although that was his intent he did not see them go by, but he did go out front, at a time Shelley was OUT FRONT (= time of the shots, if “out front” is taken literally), and also at a time when Allman with the crewcut asked him at that location (inside the vestibule actually according to Allman) to point him to a phone, for which ca 35 seconds or so is more realistic for the timing of Allman and Oswald there than 3 minutes, given that Allman said he was running top speed from the moment of the last shot with urgency to get to a phone (runs from SW corner of Elm and Houston across Elm, runs to and back from GK fence, then dead run by his account east on Elm to front steps of TSBD and in the door, which makes sense about the same time as dead-run Baker got there and entered, ca 35 seconds not 3 minutes for Allmans arrival and the Oswald encounter, when PM was there. I believe Allman’s top speed running may be seen in Darnell, the other man in Darnell running same direction though independently of Baker in uniform). 

There is no claim in any of the sources or witnesses that Oswald said he spoke directly to Shelley or vice versa, or that Oswald claimed Shelley told him he could leave. That is an urban legend in JFK research, Bugliosi noted that in an endnote. As I read it, Oswald was standing close enough to Shelley on the steps to have overheard Shelley say something. Not necessarily a claim to have spoken to Shelley directly. No basis for Oswald claiming Shelley told him he could leave. Instead, Oswald claimed he heard Shelley say there would be no more work that day, and Oswald on his own decided from that, he explained, that he decided to leave. 

Your last point 4 is of no relevance to me since I do not claim or assume or believe or suspect the NBC/6FM copy of Darnell has been altered. Red herring. I do not at all agree that there is any non-heavyset disagreement between PM and Oswald or what Oswald was wearing that morning, and the heavyset appearance is fully illusory from previous viewers not recognizing the back of the woman’s shawl and clothing in front of Oswald (from viewer’s point of view) climbing the steps. I urge you to revisit examination of the PM photographs with a fresh look if and when you acknowledge the existence of that. I am unable to post a photo gif that exists that will make this clear because my quota is maxed out and nothing on earth I have tried can I find a way to delete any past images I have up. But once you see it, you will SEE it. The obese or heavyweight objection is just gone, never was there all along, never was there. The issue then goes to whether other issues weigh for or against any identification of PM and what facts can be established and known relative to that beyond reasonable doubt. 

 

The notes are vague (1) and in apparent contradiction to the subsequent recollections of both the writer of the notes (2) and other witnesses to the event (3).

So that's three strikes and you're out, as far as our being able to take from these notes anything concrete.

And when you add to this problem that Oswald said nothing about this to the media or to his family, well, that cuts into our ability to take anything from this at all.

Oh, but wait, there's a blurry image, that looks less and less like Oswald the closer one gets to the original. That's game over, IMO. 

 

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Whew Pat. The notes are not necessarily in contradiction to recollections of the writers. They remembered his alibi as lunch first floor which was not untrue. They all accepted he said he was out front, that’s not controversial. (Oswald said he was and told of pointing a crewcut man to a phone, later checked out and confirmed by the Secret Service and the man identified. Of course it got situated in a timeline a couple minutes later but that is secondary interpretation.)

Your point 3 of contradictory witnesses seems to come from left field. There are no contradictory witnesses securely placing Oswald somewhere else at the moment of the shots. I think you just made that one up to get to 3. 

And the photo is not looking “less and less” like Oswald as you handwave. That’s the scoop neckline issue, tempest in a teapot.

The neckline rules out a necktie or a fully buttoned up shirt but agrees well with what Oswald actually was wearing, old gray work jacket worn loosely, sleeves rolled up to the elbows, over white T-shirt. And this isn’t a case on the clothing of this was considered and rejected long ago, because what Oswald was wearing is new original argument and has not previously been considered.

So what if Oswald didn’t discuss lunchrooms and cokes and seeing Shelley or a crewcut man or having a gun pointed at him on the second floor by an officer with his limited minutes on the phone with Robert and Marina that he knew were tapped anyway. Do you by the same logic reject that Oswald claimed to be in a lunchroom or on the first floor? Because he never said that to the media? What’s the difference?

Why so hardline Pat? You’re OK with Oswald having claimed first floor lunchroom and can’t be bothered to want to see his most admired president drive by, but your maginot line in the sand is not out on the front steps to see his admired JFK. I disagree. 

Edited by Greg Doudna
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Andrej — of course a flannel-like old gray work jacket can be worn sleeves rolled up. I have myself. Please read the Buell Frazier testimony re Oswald’s gray jacket on Nov 22 and also his testimony on how as days got cooler—as in late November— some of the workers who, in the summer and warmer days worked only in white T-shirt alone, would wear a “cool-like” jacket all the time indoors as days got cooler esp if going in and out on the rear dock where it was a little cool.

I worked more than from any other image from Mark Ulrik’s stabilized of the recently released 6FM copy. But the dark clothed woman is there in all the images and discernible in some as stills. Chris Davidson made gifs that bring out the movement of the woman’s clothing, unmistakeable to my and others’ eyes, but I am unable technically to post Chris’s here even though I have permission and wish I could do so.

In short, what you are seeing as PM’s left leg simply is not any leg or left side of PM at all below the level of PM’s arms or hands level, but the right profile of the back of a darkly dressed woman ascending the steps in front of (from viewers perspective) PM. But dark on dark or black on black was hard to distinguish. 

Would you be willing to post Chris D’s gif he made for me, show them here, and explain whether you do or do not see a woman climbing the steps in front of the lower half of Prayer Man?

Edited by Greg Doudna
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2 hours ago, Pat Speer said:

and in apparent contradiction to the subsequent recollections of both the writer of the notes

So you take subsequent recollections over the initial statement, knowing all the time that many "subsequent recollections" were changed to conform to the official story.

I thought you said you didn't rely on witnesses that changed their stories.

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10 hours ago, Greg Doudna said:

So the known witness testimony supports Oswald having exited from the back, and the reason he would do so, is conjectured but makes excellent sense as the way he could do so with least attention drawn to his exit of the building. So that is my answer to your question.

Huh? Your TSBD exit strategy for Lee Harvey Oswald makes absolutely NO logical sense at all (let alone "excellent sense"). Because I think most reasonable people would agree that a person leaving via a BACK door tends to look MORE suspicious to anyone who might notice him than does a person who walks out the front door of an edifice (and particularly so after a major crime has just been committed in or near that edifice).

Plus: there's the fact (via the "Prayer Man is Oswald" theory) that LHO would have already been outside the building, on the front steps, when the shooting occurred. So why run the risk of getting trapped inside a building that surely Oswald knows would be sealed off by the police in a very very short period of time after the assassination? Makes zero sense to me.

Plus: Via the theory which has Oswald being the Prayer Man figure, not only does Oswald risk getting trapped in the building by police, but he then decides to go UP one floor to the SECOND floor (for some strange reason)!

So he wants to quickly get out of the building, and yet he goes back into the building and travels UP one flight to boot?! And all the while he could have just walked down the front steps and then out of Dealey Plaza within seconds of the shots being fired at the President!?

In closing this post, I feel compelled to add this final comment --- WTF??!!

 

Edited by David Von Pein
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