DR Costella's leaning lamppost

[Ray Mitcham]

1 hour ago, John Butler said:

"I won't be drawn to comment on that statement.  " 

I didn't want you to think I was making a "personal attack" on  you with what I really wanted to reply.😁

 

By the way please show me where I have made a personal attack rather than point out your silly ideas.

 

My stance has always been that I consider the Z film to be altered, but not in the silly ways you believe.

Edited June 6, 2019 by Ray Mitcham

[Chris Davidson]

2 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

A few more pieces.

Does anybody believe "now" that Robert Croft is bald spot man?

I don't.

 

If bald spot man is neither Willis or Croft, then according to the previous Martin/Bell gifs with Willis #1 leading the way, then Croft is already in or close to his camera position at Z133.

Martin's LOS dictates that Jackie is at approx Station# 3+00.0 (2nd frame in the gif) when JFK is at Station# 2+99.0.

Robert West's plat designation for Station# 3+00.0 provided.

JFK'S position in the limo at Z133 = Station# 2+99.0

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

Next, sync Martin with Dorman (close enough-different frame rates) using the girl at the top, heading down the stairs around the corner.

Photoshop doesn't like the Martin film, so I'm supplying a little cleaner version at the link provided, besides the gif.

The last Martin frame in the gif, Jackie red boxed at Z133. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KBbfyTCtsVk35wEQYyP9QTu6ZYz1UAcj/view?usp=sharing

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

4 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Next, sync Martin with Dorman (close enough-different frame rates) using the girl at the top, heading down the stairs around the corner.

Photoshop doesn't like the Martin film, so I'm supplying a little cleaner version at the link provided, besides the gif.

The last Martin frame in the gif, Jackie red boxed at Z133. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KBbfyTCtsVk35wEQYyP9QTu6ZYz1UAcj/view?usp=sharing

 

 

 

 

 

 

Via process of elimination when we arrive at extant Z133.

Willis was the first to round the concrete structure.

Bald spot man was the second.

Croft was already in position.

We know where Willis and Croft are in extant Z133.

There is another person in Dorman who continues on, who I discovered and believe labeled many years ago as "Shadowman".

It's reasonable to assume this is actually "bald spot man" continuing on, from around the concrete structure.

For many years, we couldn't prove "Shadowman" wasn't Croft because of some missing elements.

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

Which leads to the obvious question: What happened to "Bald Spot Man" aka "Shadowman" in Z?

[Chris Davidson]

5 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Which leads to the obvious question: What happened to "Bald Spot Man" aka "Shadowman" in Z?

It's 54ft between Croft and these gentlemen on the same side of the street.

Neither of which strikes me as "bald spot shadow man".

[Chris Davidson]

Did he cross the street?

Initially, I thought it possible.

There is a ghost image of someone (dark suit) who appears under the Stemmons sign from Z's perspective.

But, since the ghost image appears at extant z215 about the time of Willis/Betzner similar photos circa z200, the only logical candidate (imo) for the ghost image is:

John Chism.

Can anyone find "bald spot shadow man" in Willis or Betzner?

[Chris Davidson]

I couldn't find him or his shadow in Altgen's along the curb sides either.

[Chris Davidson]

34 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Did he cross the street?

Initially, I thought it possible.

There is a ghost image of someone (dark suit) who appears under the Stemmons sign from Z's perspective.

But, since the ghost image appears at extant z215 about the time of Willis/Betzner similar photos circa z200, the only logical candidate (imo) for the ghost image is:

John Chism.

Can anyone find "bald spot shadow man" in Willis or Betzner?

If there is any interest in other aspects (imo) related to this ghost image, I further expanded on it here:

http://forum.assassinationofjfk.net/index.php/topic/1407-secret-service-and-fbi-made-reenactment-films-why/?p=8995

David Healy's excellent "Technical Aspects of Film Alteration" and Dr.John Costella's expertise along with David Josephs (voluminous mind boggling research) and many others, carry on.

John Butler, there are many ways to "skin a cat",  we choose different methods.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John Butler]

This is interesting work calculating the speed of the presidential vehicle in the turn in the intersection.  It could help in a problem I've always wondered about.  Your analysis would be appreciated if you find this interesting enough to work on.

I don't think you can sync the Elsie Dorman film with the after the Zapruder Gap Zapruder film, Martin, and Bell.  Elsie said she quit filming when the limousine turned into intersection.  This occurs before Zapruder, post gap, and before Martin and Bell film the area.  All this is sort of background.  What I am really interested in is where is the presidential limousine in Z frame 132 and where is the p. limo in Z frame 133?

Your analysis above can greatly help in figuring this out.  Where is the limo on Houston St. in Z 132?  And, where is the limo on Elm in Z 133?

I think figuring out where the limo in Z 133 is in relation to the SW corner of the TSBD would be helpful and then you could work backward to where the limo is on Houston St. in Z 132.

I once calculated the time in the Zapruder Gap to be abound 21-22 seconds.  David Josephs explained how he calculated it at 14 seconds and I thought that was a more reasonable effort.  My crude estimate was based on the Advance Motorcycle Officer taking 7 seconds / 18 frames per second to get to frame 132.  That is an average speed for the 7 seconds.  So, I thought the other elements of the motorcade would on the average do about the same in passing through the intersection before Z 133.

Obviously, one can't do that based on the slowing down of the p. limo in the turn.  You have nicely figured the speed in the turn.  You can see that the limo has not passed the lamppost and the R L Thornton sign.  So, it must be about even with the SW corner of the TSBD.

If this is interesting, can you work back from there to where the limo would be on Houston St. in Z 132?  And, tie down where it really is in z 133? 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by John Butler

[Chris Bristow]

On 5/25/2019 at 4:33 PM, Chris Bristow said:

My evaluation of this theory is negative. At the same time I find Dr Costella's Pincushion theory about the Stemmons sign to be one of the most compelling bits of evidence to date. I have looked deeply into the subject and after two years I still can't find a valid reason to explain it. So I am not attempting to impugn his integrity as a researcher, but the lamppost anomaly may not be evidence of alterations.
The image below shows that the angle of the lamppost changes relative to the wall as you pan across. So for the Barnes photo and the the Z film to match you would have to duplicate the direction the camera is pointing to. In the Barnes photo the camera is pointing about one or two feet to the right of the Stemmons sign. In the Z film you don't even see the lamppost till frame 261 when the camera is pointing around 18 degrees to the right. So a comparison is impossible.
I have not measured this yet but I think the change is due to the the angle of the wall changing as you pan. As the cameras lens pans it's angle to the wall changes. The wall is at an angle to the camera to begin with and it adds to the vanishing point by a keystone effect. The wall appears to angle down more and more toward the center of the photo as the camera angle increases. That widens the angle of the lamppost to the wall, so in the series of photos were I aligned it by the angle of the wall the lamppost leans more and more to the left.(Often we mistake vanishing point as something that causes things to appear higher in the frame as they recede into the distance. It actually moves everything toward the center of the photo.)
 One other problem with comparing the Barnes photo against anything is the extreme amount of distortion in it.   In the Barnes photo below the buildings lean outward more and more as they appear farther and farther from the center of the photo. The center of the photo generally shows were the optical center of the lens is. (At the optical center the distortion is about zero because the front and rear surfaces of the lens are parallel.) The buildings lean outward from that center. This is equally true for the horizontal axis. The same distortion occurs as you move up or down from the optical center. It is harder to find because there are not a lot of horizontal lines to track.
 I have to conclude that the changing angle of the lamppost is normal and expected. Actually I don't like to reach full conclusions because in these complicated issues it is easy to miss something. how many times has some theory seemed valid then after a while new information or evaluation can turn things around. So I am pretty confident in this analysis but am still open to being proved wrong.
 

I was very suspicious of the extreme keystone effect in the Barnes image and the fact that the lamppost is near the edge of the image while the Costella panorama took the lamppost image from frame 270 in which the lamppost is centered in the frame. Now I think I can put my keystone concerns aside because those effects would cause the lamppost to lean more to the left not to the right as in the Z film. That lends support to the Costella theory and so I think I can say that keystoning( both vertical and horizontal) is not the cause of the lamppost anomaly.
 
  What I did find is that the difference in the leaning lampposts between the Barnes and Costella image is only about 3/4 of one degree. The red line on the lamppost in the Costella panorama was slightly off and added to its rightward lean. With a small difference of 3/4 of one degree it becomes harder to rule out some of the subtle camera distortions like pincushion.
 

So in the end much of what I found supports The lamppost theory but because the error is only 3/4 of a degree I can't be sure of anything. It looks to me like  the Barnes image has not been pincushion corrected and that would cause the lamppost to lean slightly farther left. That may be the cause of the anomaly.  But because the effect is so small you would need to reproduce the photos with the same camera.
 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Chris Bristow

[Chris Davidson]

15 hours ago, John Butler said:

This is interesting work calculating the speed of the presidential vehicle in the turn in the intersection.  It could help in a problem I've always wondered about.  Your analysis would be appreciated if you find this interesting enough to work on.

That is not my work. It is Dale Myers. Instead of using JFK's location within the limo as his measuring marker, he used the driver's side rear tire. When you round the Elm St turn and you're on the inside radius, you're not going to travel as far as if you're on the outside radius.

This is one of the reasons why his frame rate for Towner (8mm camera) was 22.8fps, which is absurd.

I don't think you can sync the Elsie Dorman film with the after the Zapruder Gap Zapruder film, Martin, and Bell.  Elsie said she quit filming when the limousine turned into intersection. 

I don't care who's film it is, there is a common sync point between the two.

This occurs before Zapruder, post gap, and before Martin and Bell film the area.  All this is sort of background. 

No, it is a most important part of syncing films.

What I am really interested in is where is the presidential limousine in Z frame 132 and where is the p. limo in Z frame 133?

Too many variables. Not enough film overlapping/sync points from what I've found.

Your analysis above can greatly help in figuring this out.  Where is the limo on Houston St. in Z 132?  And, where is the limo on Elm in Z 133?

Can help only to a certain extent. Limited by the films themselves.

I think figuring out where the limo in Z 133 is in relation to the SW corner of the TSBD would be helpful and then you could work backward to where the limo is on Houston St. in Z 132.

I know where the limo is at Z133, I pointed it out on one of the previous plat graphics.

I once calculated the time in the Zapruder Gap to be abound 21-22 seconds.  David Josephs explained how he calculated it at 14 seconds and I thought that was a more reasonable effort.  My crude estimate was based on the Advance Motorcycle Officer taking 7 seconds / 18 frames per second to get to frame 132.  That is an average speed for the 7 seconds.  So, I thought the other elements of the motorcade would on the average do about the same in passing through the intersection before Z 133.

Best estimate I can supply is below.

Obviously, one can't do that based on the slowing down of the p. limo in the turn.  You have nicely figured the speed in the turn.  You can see that the limo has not passed the lamppost and the R L Thornton sign.  So, it must be about even with the SW corner of the TSBD.

I've done my own plotting of the Towner film at 18.3 frames per sec and the limo averaged approx 8.3mph throughout the entire film discounting anything more than seven frames for the TSBD splice.

If this is interesting, can you work back from there to where the limo would be on Houston St. in Z 132?  And, tie down where it really is in z 133? 

Best estimate I can supply is below.

 

The cycle cop travels approx 120ft @7.21sec@18.3fps = 11.3mph average.

The best distances I arrive at for the rest are in the graphic.

Since the white car doesn't appear in the last frame of z1-132 (big variable) the limo is at least :

120 + 20 + 157.5 - 10ft overlap = 287.5ft behind the cycle cop at z132 within the graphic.

I don't see a problem with Myers applied average speed to the limo on Houston St at 9.3mph.

Someone can check that if so inclined.

9.3mph = 13.67 ft per sec

157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec + 7.21 sec = approx 18.71sec at least, ahead of the limo.

If there is more detailed info then you can add/subtract what you need to.

Added on edit: Towner film( Myers adding 7 frames at TSBD splice):

(167/18.3 = 9.125sec) +(157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec) = 20.625sec

20.625sec - 18.71 sec = 1.91sec

Difference in Myers frame rate for Towner at 22.8 and 18.3fps over 167 frames = 1.8 sec.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Chris Davidson

[John Butler]

This is good stuff.  I'll have to change my mind several times.

“The cycle cop travels approx 120ft @7.21sec@18.3fps = 11.3mph average.

The best distances I arrive at for the rest are in the graphic.

Since the white car doesn't appear in the last frame of z1-132 (big variable) the limo is at least :

120 + 20 + 157.5 - 10ft overlap = 287.5ft behind the cycle cop at z132 within the graphic.

I don't see a problem with Myers applied average speed to the limo on Houston St at 9.3mph.

Someone can check that if so inclined.

9.3mph = 13.67 ft per sec

157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec + 7.21 sec = approx 18.71sec at least, ahead of the limo.”

This is fascinating stuff.  Let me first concentrate on this statement:

“120 + 20 + 157.5 - 10ft overlap = 287.5ft behind the cycle cop at z132 within the graphic.”

This puts the presidential limousine in almost the exact area of Altgens 5 or as you shown in a Muchmore scene (I believe Muchmore) at the same time the Advance Motorcycle Officer is at Z frame 132.  Once again this is fascinating stuff.  With this statement one can time almost exactly the length of the Zapruder Gap.

Based on this reasoning, the frames 132 and 133 show the Advance Motorcyle Officer in Z frame 132 in about the same position as the presidential limousine in Z frame 133.

The red line in each frame goes to the two Ladies in Black.  They are in almost exactly the same positions unless the ladies have moved slightly in Z frame 133.

If we assume this to be true then at 287.5 feet distance between the two divided by the average speed of 9.3 mph / 13.67 feet per sec we have 21.03 seconds.

You say:

“157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec + 7.21 sec = approx 18.71sec at least, ahead of the limo”

Where did I go wrong in my thinking of about 3 seconds?  You seem to have nailed this down well.  Either way is a good estimate in my opinion.

Is the difference in time involved with the 20 ft and -10 feet involved first calculation?

I guess I will have to give up the Joseph,s estimate of 14 seconds.  And, either go back to my crude estimate and use yours also with perhaps 18-21 seconds for the Zapruder Gap.  18-21 seconds is a good timing of the Gap.

This allows a little more time for various people to get to the SW corner in Z frame 133. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by John Butler

[John Butler]

Yep.  I see where I went wrong.  The 157.5 feet is at 9.3 mph and the 120 feet is traveled at 11.3 mph. 

The 18 seconds for the Zapruder Gap is the best estimate.

[Chris Davidson]

3 hours ago, John Butler said:

This puts the presidential limousine in almost the exact area of Altgens 5 or as you shown in a Muchmore scene (I believe Muchmore) at the same time the Advance Motorcycle Officer is at Z frame 132.  Once again this is fascinating stuff.  With this statement one can time almost exactly the length of the Zapruder Gap.

 

Actually,  the limo in Altgen's is approx 7.5ft further up Houston St than where it is in the Hughes frame from the previous gif.

Just misses the white lead car because of the camera angle.

Based on this reasoning, the frames 132 and 133 show the Advance Motorcyle Officer in Z frame 132 in about the same position as the presidential limousine in Z frame 133.

The cycle cop at z132 is approx 20ft farther down Elm than JFK's position in the limo at z133.

The red line in each frame goes to the two Ladies in Black.  They are in almost exactly the same positions unless the ladies have moved slightly in Z frame 133.

If we assume this to be true then at 287.5 feet distance between the two divided by the average speed of 9.3 mph / 13.67 feet per sec we have 21.03 seconds.

You say:

“157.5ft/13.67 = 11.5 sec + 7.21 sec = approx 18.71sec at least, ahead of the limo”

Where did I go wrong in my thinking of about 3 seconds?  You seem to have nailed this down well.  Either way is a good estimate in my opinion.

Is the difference in time involved with the 20 ft and -10 feet involved first calculation?

The 10ft difference between starting the turn onto Elm St at the crosswalk (lead white car) and where JFK in the limo is at the beginning of Towner.

The 20ft difference is the farthest distance back I can plot on Houston St knowing the white lead car hasn't made it to that spot yet and where the cycle cop aligns with the signal light post in the background (Stationary Objects) Have to have them for distance measurements.

I guess I will have to give up the Joseph,s estimate of 14 seconds.  And, either go back to my crude estimate and use yours also with perhaps 18-21 seconds for the Zapruder Gap.  18-21 seconds is a good timing of the Gap.

This allows a little more time for various people to get to the SW corner in Z frame 133. 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Chris Davidson