Mark Zaid, JFK and Trump

[Cliff Varnell]

35 minutes ago, Kathy Beckett said:

.Don't you guys dare start jacking with the Constitution and Checks and Balances! Don't you dare.  

Kathy, it's too late.  Trump has declared his powers unlimited.  There can be no investigations into his election activities without AG Bill Barr's approval.

There are no checks and balances on Trump.

The American experiment in self-government has failed.  The Fascists are taking a victory lap while the "progressive" Trumpenlinks are bashing Democrats.

[James DiEugenio]

Joe:

We went through all this years ago in the wake of HRC's loss back in 2016.

We argued about it for days, maybe weeks.  Why recycle it now?

HRC lost in the Rust Belt, four key states.  And that is why she lost the Electoral College.  And that, unfortunately, is what matters.

She did not excite the base.  Just compare the demos to Obama.

Edited February 6, 2020 by James DiEugenio

[Cliff Varnell]

48 minutes ago, James DiEugenio said:

Kathy:

What is wrong with wanting to see new leadership in the Democratic party? 

What's wrong with stopping this fascist coup d'etat which has declared unlimited executive power?

I don't think it's dawned on people that, as of yesterday's Senate vote to ratify a unitary executive, we are living under a whole new form of government.

 

[Cliff Varnell]

15 hours ago, Robert Wheeler said:

I would take the other side of Cliffs prediction and give you 15 to 1. All day. 

Although I hadn't made a prediction for Herr Wheeler to lay odds on, I'll offer one here: on January 20, 2021 President Mike Bloomberg and Vice President Stacey Abrams will be inaugurated.

Anybody want to give me 15 to 1 I'll fade it all day long.

[Cliff Varnell]

17 minutes ago, Robert Wheeler said:

I say Trump get's at least 20% of the Black Vote in 2020. Bookmark that prediction.

Herr Wheeler isn't familiar with Stacey Abrams.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/08/19/stacey-abrams-fight-for-a-fair-vote

https://newsone.com/3892508/stacey-abrams-vp-candidate-odds/

 

[Cliff Varnell]

16 minutes ago, Robert Wheeler said:

I don't think any of the Democratic candidates can beat Trump. Also, there are none out there that could possibly jump in, or be anointed. 

Still, it's amazing how the Democrats have decided to stick with a Strategy that is going to prevent them from ever winning the national election in 2024, 2028 and beyond.

They are screwing over Bernie Sanders as of this minute. 

Rather than allowing him to head the ticket in the 2020 election, which he is probably going to lose anyway (but could still win), the DNC is going to piss off his large enthusiastic base, who will stay home on Election day, and guarantee a loss, no matter who they put up against Trump.

The Democrats have a chance to build some goodwill, in a race they only have a remote chance of winning, but they would rather destroy the party out of Spite.

Someone tell Robert Wheeler his wager of 15 to 1 on my prediction of a Bloomberg/Abrams Dem ticket is faded.

We can trust Cory Santos to hold the money, if he finds such a thing agreeable. 

Cory is one of the most respected lawyers in Nevada and a member in good standing on the Forum.

Robert sends Cory $3000 and I'll send him $200 -- or Robert can send him $15 and I'll send $1.  I'll put up anywhere from a buck to two bills.

This would be a smart bet for Robert.  Bloomberg is slightly better than 7 to 1 to win the top spot, and as of last November Abrams was 7 to 1 for the VP nod.

Robert gets a hell of a wager!  It's a 50 to 1 shot for only 15 to 1.

Maybe someone can quote this post so Robert sees it...

 

[James DiEugenio]

I don't know if I agree with all of that Bob.

In the secret  polls taken in the last days of the 2016 election, Sanders beat Trump fairly handily.

And let us not forget, HRC did beat Trump in the popular vote.  

What really worried me about that election that night were two factors:

1.) HRC only won one state in the south, Virginia. And that was because of Kaine.  When I saw that, I immediately looked up north, and things really got bad

2.) When I saw that she was neck and neck in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Wisconsin, I knew it was over.

There are three states in play in the south for the Democrats today: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia.  Obama took them all in 2008, and 2 of 3 in 2012.  But if you only take one, that means you have to pretty much sweep the natural Democratic base, that is the Rust Belt.  HRC could not do that.  And in electoral college terms, that is why she lost.  In the book Shattered, the authors explained how theTrump camp outsmarted Robby Mook on that matter. Mook, the HRC campaign manger, did not think Trump could win there.  They did, and they devoted much more time there than HRC did.  If you read that book you will see how HRC made a tactical error in not listening to her husband more and instead, trusting Mook.

The entire political establishment, including Mook and HRC underestimated the level of voter unrest and dissatisfaction with the status quo--in both parties.  That factor is what led to the shocking looks on the pundits faces that night---they believed their own BS.  Like Huffpost predicting there was almost no chance Trump could win. Right up to the last minute.  ANd this is what helped everyone buy into that whole phony Russia Gate, Steele Dossier baloney.  After all, if we were wrong it must have been the Russians.  No, you were wrong because you were wrong, Period. 

And, if the DNC had not been rigged, I think Sanders would have won the nomination, and beaten Trump.  That is how badly the MSM misunderstood what was happening.

Edited February 6, 2020 by James DiEugenio

[Cliff Varnell]

13 minutes ago, James DiEugenio said:

I don't know if I agree with all of that Bob.

In the secret  polls taken in the last days of the 2016 election, Sanders beat Trump fairly handily.

And let us not forget, HRC did beat Trump in the popular vote.  

What really worried me about that election that night were two factors:

1.) HRC only won one state in the south, Virginia. And that was because of Kaine.  When I saw that, I immediately looked up north, and things really got bad

2.) When I saw that she was neck and neck in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Wisconsin, I knew it was over.

There are three states in play in the south for the Democrats today: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia.  Obama took them all in 2008, and 2 of 3 in 2012.  But if you only take one, that means you have to pretty much sweep the natural Democratic base, that is the Rust Belt.  HRC could not do that.  And in electoral college terms, that is why she lost.  In the book Shattered, the authors explained how theTrump camp outsmarted Robby Mook on that matter. Mook, the HRC campaign manger, did not think Trump could win there.  They did, and they devoted much more time there than HRC did.  If you read that book you will see how HRC made a tactical error in not listening to her husband more and instead, trusting Mook.

The entire political establishment, including Mook and HRC underestimated the level of voter unrest and dissatisfaction with the status quo--in both parties.  That factor is what led to the shocking looks on the pundits faces that night, they believed their own BS.  Like Huffpost predicting there was almost no chance Trump could win. Right up to the last minute.  ANd this is what helped everyone buy into that whole phony Russia Gate, Steele Dossier baloney.  After all, if we were wrong it must have been the Russians.  No, you were wrong because you were wrong, Period. 

And, if the DNC had not been rigged, I think Sanders would have won the nomination, and beaten Trump.  That is how badly the MSM misunderstood what was happening.

How badly does James DiEugenio misunderstand?

The polls that predicted Hillary by 4% were dead accurate.  She won the popular vote by 2% and another 2% was disenfranchised by GOP Voter ID laws and registration purges.

It was a rigged election.

Then throw in James Comey turning the last 11 days of cable news coverage into non-stop Hillary bashing.

DiEugenio is sorely in need of getting his facts straight.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Cliff Varnell

[W. Niederhut]

If we had fair elections, and fair media coverage, Bernie could beat Trump in 2020, just as he would have beaten Trump in 2016-- despite the fact that Bernie's presidential campaigns since 2015 have been entirely blacked out of our mainstream corporate media.

The main thing that Bernie is up against in 2020, besides vote hacking, is the Robber Baron-owned mass media.

The guy is practically Palestinian in our mass media-- invisible, except for negative coverage.

As for the Democratic ticket in 2020, I'm hoping for Sanders/Warren, but I'll support whomever wins the nomination.

Mad King Donald and his GOP Senate trolls must go.

Edited February 6, 2020 by W. Niederhut

[Chris Davidson]

1 hour ago, Robert Wheeler said:

Per table above, in the 2016 Election, Trump received 12% of the African American Vote and African Americans accounted for 8% of all votes cast.

Per screen shot (wikipedia) , in the 2012 Election, Romney received 6% of the African American Vote and African Americans accounted for 13% of all votes cast.

That is why Hillary lost. Fewer African Americans voted and of those that did, more cast a vote for Trump, relative to 2012.

There should be some math out there that shows the effect swung Pennsylvania and Michigan to Trump.

Obama was always naturally going to post strong numbers among Black people, as the first Black person to head the national ticket. 

Still, the Democrats are looking at a repeat of 2016 because Barack is not running in 2020 and the rest of the gang is pretty uninspiring. 

To summarize, in the 2020 election, Black turnout will decrease relative to 2016 because they don't like either Trump or whoever the challenger is and those that do vote, will pick Trump at a higher rate than they did in 2016, (and certainly versus 2012.)

I say Trump get's at least 20% of the Black Vote in 2020. Bookmark that prediction.

 

The electoral difference was Trump 306-Clinton 232.

Wis-Penn-Mich combine for 46 electoral votes.

If Trump lost these three states (all three were won by less than 1% in terms of vote total) he doesn't have enough to win the presidency.

African-American vote (20percent) in terms of percentage in these three states would not be the decider.

This is what would. imho

Women make up a little more than 50% of all voters, I believe.

 

[Cliff Varnell]

2 minutes ago, W. Niederhut said:

If we had fair elections, and fair media coverage, Bernie could beat Trump in 2020, just as he would have beaten Trump in 2016-- despite the fact that Bernie's presidential campaigns since 2015 have been entirely blacked out of our mainstream corporate media.

The main thing that Bernie is up against in 2020, besides vote hacking, is the Robber Baron-owned mass media.

The guy is practically Palestinian in our mass media-- invisible, except for negative coverage.

As for the Democratic ticket in 2020, I'm hoping for Sanders/Warren, but I'll support whoever wins the nomination.

Mad King Donald and his GOP Senate trolls must go.

I'm in despair over Bernie.  They're not going to let him win the Presidency even if he won the Dem nomination.  Two weeks before the election the Justice Department will announce a phony investigation into Bernie's wife, or Bernie himself.

The choice may be democratic socialism or theocratic fascism but not enough people identify what Trump is doing as out and out fascism.  

We're today living under a brand new form of government.  Doesn't look like that fact has sunk in...

[Cliff Varnell]

On 2/4/2020 at 9:05 PM, James DiEugenio said:

He loves to do this kind of polarizing crap doesn't he?

This is like saying 5 years into a drought -- "Doesn't rain much, does it?"

When will Kennedys and King deal with the fact that the US government no longer features checks on the executive?

[James DiEugenio]

 

Yes, when HRC lost Florida and N. Carolina, she had to take three of those four Rust Belt states.

It does not matter which demographic you want to focus on, Wheeler's or Davidson's.  HRC just did not excite the base of the party.  If you look at the 2008 election, Obama swept the entire northeast and New England.  He took the four states in question--Wisconsin Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan--by significant margins, double digits in 3 out of 4.  In other words, it was not even close.

HRC was just not the right candidate.  And she and Mook ran a poor campaign.  

Errata: Above, it was Michigan, not Illinois that HRC surprisingly lost. 

 

[Cliff Varnell]

2 minutes ago, James DiEugenio said:

 

Yes, when HRC lost Florida and N. Carolina, she had to take three of those four Rust Belt states.

It does not matter which demographic you want to focus on, Wheeler's or Davidson's.  HRC just did not excite the base of the party. 

It's voter suppression.  Non-stop cable news hammering on e-mails.  Then the last 11 days of blanket coverage of e-mails -- the electorate had significant Clinton fatigue.

That's how the Dominionist wing of the "deep state" works -- gin up phony scandals and flood the airwaves with it.

 

 

[W. Niederhut]

31 minutes ago, Cliff Varnell said:

I'm in despair over Bernie.  They're not going to let him win the Presidency even if he won the Dem nomination.  Two weeks before the election the Justice Department will announce a phony investigation into Bernie's wife, or Bernie himself.

The choice may be democratic socialism or theocratic fascism but not enough people identify what Trump is doing as out and out fascism.  

We're today living under a brand new form of government.  Doesn't look like that fact has sunk in...

     I agree that Bernie is up against some very powerful forces, including electronic sabotage, Robber Baron "news" corporations, and the massive amounts of dark money for advertising in the post- Citizens United era.

   I also doubt that Netanyahu, Likud Party hardliners, and the Mossad would ever allow Bernie Sanders to move into  the White House.  They would view Bernie as an existential threat.

   Didn't Sidney Gottlieb and the MK-Ultra guys invent a "heart attack" gun back in the day?