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Did Oswald sell the Mannlicher-Carcano the day before the assassination?

Greg Doudna

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This is in response to some thoughtful, probing criticisms raised by Larry Hancock in another discussion to the theory that Oswald thought he was involved in a false flag operation. That discussion, "Cognitive Bias in the Formulation of Theories", is here: https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/27389-cognitive-bias-in-the-formulation-of-theories/Because of the length of this I am making it a topic of its own rather than in that discussion, but it is Larry Hancock's fault there that this is written. 🙂 (That is a joke; Larry Hancock is of course not responsible for anything written here.)

Could it be Oswald's self-understanding was that he was a low-level informant doing, not a false flag, but a "sting" of some bad people? Suppose Oswald's earlier two firearm mail-order purchases were part of that Dodd subcommittee investigation and Oswald was allowed to keep the firearms for private use or resale as a fringe benefit. 

The idea would be that Oswald is party to a conveyance or sale of that traceable rifle, at the direction of and with the approval of a law enforcement entity, to a "bad person", with Oswald in an undercover role, so that this govt-traceable item (the rifle), like a marked bill, could be used to nail bad people. In this scenario Oswald would not have knowledge that shooting would happen, would not knowingly be involved in making a sniper’s nest on the sixth floor, would not know that his rifle ended up there. He would not anticipate becoming charged or blamed for an assassination, nor have known that it was going to happen. If he ever was picked up by police for some reason he would rely on it being explained to and by authorities that he was one of the "good guys", working for the govt to nail bad guys, and would be released.

The rifle itself, the Mannlicher-Carcano, would have gone from New Orleans to Ruth Paine's garage in the blanket with other of Oswald’s belongings, but (differing from the standard picture here) the rifle would be gone from the blanket and the Ruth Paine garage before Thu night Nov 22. A number of otherwise anomalous items could be pieced together and possibly rendered more sensible along this line:

(a) on “Nov 20 or 21, 1963”--Wed night Nov 20 since Thu night Oswald is in Irving--Oswald was witnessed staying up very late, until after midnight, at Sleight’s Speed Wash, 1101 N. Beckley, a laundromat near his rooming house (FBI interview reports at CE 3001). Since Oswald had missed the previous weekend being in Irving with Marina who would often do his laundry it is plausible he would be doing laundry, yet why so late on a work night. Suppose he was not only doing laundry but used that as opportunity to prepare a package, or take delivery of something from someone, though the janitor there did not see Oswald meeting anyone or doing anything there except reading magazines. Or was he staying up until after midnight reading magazines because he planned to sleep in a little later the next morning?

(b) on Thu morning Nov 21 a fellow roomer at the rooming house on Beckley sees Oswald leave the rooming house early that morning (before 8 am, so the roomer said) carrying a package. (Here I am missing documentation, I cannot find it, but I know I have seen a news account reporting that one of the other roomers at the rooming house said ca. 1 day before the assassination Oswald went out the door from the rooming house on Beckley with a package in his arms.) 

(c) at 10 am Thu morning Nov 21 Oswald is at the Dobbs House restaurant at 12th and N. Beckley near his rooming house where he is a regular for breakfast though on all other days he is there 7-7:30 am (CE 3001). This 10 am is unusual, no known prior precedent. Somewhat amazingly this Thu 10 am Dobbs House breakfast of Oswald has generally been simply rejected, even though the sources are multiple restaurant staff who were familiar with Oswald as a regular there, as waitress Delores Harrison put it, he “did not talk much and was always reading magazines or books”—that was Oswald. This restaurant staff testimony is highly credible testimony. Waitress Mary Dowling said Oswald’s 10 am breakfast was Wed Nov 20 but Delores Harrison said it was Thu Nov 21. The shock of the assassination threw a number of witness memories off by a day when recounting events of the days before the assassination; we will go here with Delores Harrison's date of Thu Nov 21 as the accurate date.

(d) at 10:30 am Thu Nov 21, thirty minutes after Oswald is eating breakfast at the Dobbs House restaurant, a hitchhiker carrying a package is picked up at the Beckley St. entrance ramp to the Thornton Expressway by Ralph Yates, on a refrigerator repair service call, “on either November 20 or 21, 1963” (FBI interview report of Yates, 11/27/63). According to Yates the hitchhiker asked if Yates had heard anything about the President’s parade route being changed, and asked if Yates had ever been to the Carousel Club. The man asked to be dropped off on Houston Street so Yates dropped the hitchhiker off at Dealey Plaza on his (Yates’) way to a service call in Irving. After seeing photographs and television pictures of Oswald after the assassination, Yates told the FBI he thought his hitchhiker had been Oswald. Although Yates soon was to have an incredibly sad mental breakdown, he had no record of prior mental breakdown at the time of the hitchhiker or when he first reported it, and I do not think Yates invented the story. He told a coworker of the hitchhiker before the assassination and he passed a polygraph test. But who was the hitchhiker? I think Greg Parker got it right in identifying Yates' hitchhiker not as Oswald (as Yates thought)—Oswald was a bus-rider, not a hitchhiker—but Larry Crafard (of the Carousel Club), who was a hitchhiker and this becomes one more case to be added to the list of known persons post-assassination, who had never seen or known Oswald, who mistakenly identified Crafard in their memory as Oswald after seeing photos of Oswald on TV. Let what was in the package of Yates' hitchhiker now be identified as Oswald's rifle, the Mannlicher-Carcano, obtained from Oswald within the previous thirty to sixty minutes before Crafard carrying it in a package is picked up hitchhiking about one mile walk on Beckley from the Dobbs House to the nearest freeway entrance ramp. An FBI interview report of 11/28/63 of J. B. Gilpin, Yates’ employer, confirmed from records that the correct date of Yates’ service call in Irving was the morning of Thu Nov 21 (and not Wed Nov 20). 

The unusual juxtaposition of times and locations connects Oswald’s 10 am at the Dobbs House, after leaving with a package that morning, with Yates’ 10:30 am hitchhiker carrying the rifle-compatible package, even though Oswald was not that hitchhiker.

(e) After taking care of business either before or after his 10 am breakfast at the Dobbs House, an exchange of the rifle for money, Oswald takes a bus to work, arriving late to work the only time he had ever done so, unattested on his time sheet filled out by his immediate supervisor Shelley (who filled out his time at work as starting from 8 am that day). Rather than discount Oswald’s highly credibly witnessed 10 am presence at the Dobbs House that morning where he was a regular and they knew him, because of Shelley’s time sheet saying Oswald was at work since 8 am that day, reverse that and instead discount Shelley’s time sheet record for Oswald that day (presumably with Shelley’s knowledge and approval covering for him. The other possibility is that Shelley, even though he did not actually remember seeing Oswald there, knew Oswald was always punctual and at work on time such that when he did see Oswald at work later that morning, assumed he must have been there since 8 am as always—there was no time clock).

(f) Upon arrival to the TSBD late that morning, Oswald asks Wesley Frazier for a ride to Irving that night, Thursday night. (Unusual.)

(g) Oswald, with cash in pocket from the sale of the rifle, goes with Frazier to Irving Thursday night. Oswald, flush with cash, tries to persuade Marina to rent an apartment with him that very weekend, promising her a washing machine and everything. (Marina dissembles, says not yet or so we understand from Marina’s post-assassination explanation of what she answered Oswald.) 

(h) Oswald leaves the cash with Marina, assuming she will make up and get the apartment with him. This becomes the explanation for the somewhat surprising $170 cash it is learned after the assassination that Marina has. That is the equivalent of $1519 in today’s money according to an online inflation calculator I just checked—and Oswald was poor making low wages at the TSBD. Marina has this $170 after the assassination, never fully explained. Marina explains when questioned after the assassination that Oswald gave it to her as savings, which may not be exactly untrue, but leaves out the slight detail (which Marina surely would have asked—what wife would not?--and Oswald may have told her and she may have known) of how Oswald had obtained it (the sale of the rifle believed to have killed the president).   

(i) Back in to Dallas to work at the TSBD with Frazier on Fri morning Nov 22, Oswald goes about his workday normally, unaware anything is up apart from the presidential parade. If he wasn’t shooting, he may have watched JFK go by from a window, as others inside the building watched from windows, until the shots and realization that the president's limousine was hit. At that point he realizes the rifle he handed over could be involved which would implicate him. He leaves the TSBD and gets to the Texas Theatre in Oak Cliff where he may already have had a prior 3 pm appointment to meet someone (not necessarily assassination related). 

(j) Arrested in the theatre, narrowly escaping being killed by Crafard who entered the theatre in order to kill Oswald (the arrest saved Oswald’s life). 

(k) As a low-level operative, Oswald stonewalls under questioning waiting for an intervention which will explain that he was working for the govt and one of the good guys, but it does not happen. 

(l) When Oswald says things like "its all over now" and "I have not done violence to any person", he is referring to his undercover status. 

There would need to be some assumptions and gaps in this filled in for this scenario to fly. Since Oswald shows no known signs of meetings or contacts or time unaccounted for at the rooming house on Beckley according to those who saw him there, any informant or operative contacts, if such were happening in this time period (and given Oswald's track record including very recently how would there not have been?), this may have taken place inside the TSBD during work hours, and that could be anyone, whether Shelley or Truly or someone else.

There would need to be explained a mechanism for the rifle carried by hitchhiker Crafard in the package, dropped off by Yates in Dealey Plaza on Thu morning Nov 21 around 10:30 am—that rifle must get to the sixth floor of the TSBD. 

If a sixth floor shooter using that rifle was other than Oswald, there needs to be an explanation of mechanism of entrance and exit of that person from the TSBD to include presence on the sixth floor at the time of the assassination, and how that could be done without witnesses noticing or saying so. 

I have made a case that Crafard was the killer of Tippit and would have killed Oswald at the theatre if the police arrest had not saved Oswald’s life (for two more days). Crafard, with self-professed prior hitman expertise (according to what he told Peter Whitmey later and Crafard's brother seemed to confirm), the recent new hire by Jack Ruby with little in the way of defined job duties and living some of the time at the Carousel Club, perhaps referred to Ruby with Ruby acting as middleman for more senior Mob interests …

There would need to be explained a mechanism for how Oswald's rifle would be removed from Ruth Paine's garage some time before Wed night Nov 20, and then come to be in the possession of Oswald in Oak Cliff by Thu morning Nov 21. That is unexplained. Where would the rifle be stored if it were not in Ruth Paine’s garage? That is unexplained.

The “curtain rods” Oswald told Frazier were in the paper bag carried by Oswald Friday morning still needs explaining. According to Yates, his hitchhiker, Crafard, told Yates “curtain rods” was in his (the hitchhiker’s) package carrying the Mannlicher-Carcano too. Here is an explanation made possible by the present scenario. When Crafard takes the rifle from Oswald in Oak Cliff Thu Nov 21, he tells Oswald or cracks a joke as he is about to walk on the street with his package, “I’ll just tell people its curtain rods”. Oswald’s real reason for going to Irving on Thursday was because he had a windfall huge amount of money and he wanted to see Marina and it also was none of Frazier’s business. Not telling Frazier the real reason for the unexpected Thursday request, Oswald tells him what he had just heard, “I’m going to get some curtain rods”. The paper bag is left over from Oswald’s transaction with Crafard on Thursday in Oak Cliff. Crafard takes the disassembled rifle out of Oswald’s paper bag to inspect before paying, then takes the rifle away in his, Crafard’s, own prepared, perhaps sturdier, packaging. Oswald folds up the paper bag and puts it in his pocket, it goes with him to Irving, and he uses it to carry his lunch the next morning.  

Tippit was at the Dobbs House at the same time, 10 am, as Oswald was on Thu Nov 21, 1963, according to waitress Mary Dowling who knew them both, though Tippit and Oswald showed no signs of knowing each other. But they were there at the same time, that is fact. But it is a fact that at this point goes nowhere, without knowledge of what it may or may not mean.

In this scenario, Oswald would be part of neither an assassination nor a false flag operation in his understanding, but rather a low-level operative involved in a firearm sale on behalf of an agency. As to who, in this case probably not FBI or CIA but there are probably a dozen other less-prominent agency possibilities from federal to local, not excluding the Dallas Police department itself.  

Larry Hancock, do you think something like this could be a possible line of explanation for Oswald's actions? 🙂 

Edited by Greg Doudna
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At this point a rifle in the TSBD that can be traced to Lee Oswald  is the biggest sticking point in any conspiracy scenario is a major sticking point for me - one area where I can't even offer a preferred scenario.  It also seems to be the biggest issue in his knowingly participating - certainly in shooting - in a False Flag action.  He may have been naive and spontaneous at times; he was not stupid.

And certainly a rifle was found in the building.  Personally I can't see any sane or  reasonably competent conspiracy that is going to frame him waiting to do it after the fact as it were, manufacturing a link to him out of whole cloth after the the assassination. 

It would make a great deal more sense if the rifle was obtained from him before the fact - either in New Orleans or in Dallas. 

I've always been intrigued by the Yates story, presented it in detail in SWHT and although people claim to have debunked it we have witnesses at his work site that said he described picking up the young man and told that story days before the assassination.  I have a hard time not accepting it to some point, along with several other incidents like the car dealership one which seem to be establishing a set of witness that would be expected to come forward with incriminating remarks after the attack. 

I also think the restaurant incident is credible - although it may be connected to something else that was in progress.

I need to ponder your series of events in much more detail but one of the things I'm excited about by the other thread is that these dialogs do seem to be moving us out of the box, into some more detained options, rather than leaving us stuck at the same broad. high level assertions that have been made for decades.

Its vital to hash out to detailed scenarios so that they can be critiques and compared - and we absolutely need to have something more credible on the rifle, either with Oswald being duped to get it so its planted, it coming from somewhere else to be planted, or Oswald himself somehow being convinced to plant it.

Of course there is one other option (incoming) and that is that a Carcano different than the one he had purchased was planted...different but close enough to carry the day and frame him assuming he would be dead after the fact and nobody would be looking too closely for inconsistencies in the evidence (which sounds sort of familiar).



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Thanks Larry. On the rifle, one possibility is the idea could be to obtain Oswald's Carcano (which did happen as wanted on Thu Nov 22)--by someone offering Oswald a large enough sum of money for his unused rifle combined with some convincing narrative--but if that had fallen through, one could have Oswald incriminated by other means with some other rifle inside the TSBD or one could have the assassination anyway without incrimination of Oswald. There was the Warren Caster episode on Wed Nov 20, two days before the assassination, which was a possible mechanism for introduction of an assassination rifle inside the TSBD, notwithstanding that the two rifles Caster bought at lunch that day remained verifiably in his family for years.* As part of that episode there was what could almost look like an invitation to get Oswald's fingerprints on a Mauser in the TSBD on that occasion. In his Warren Commission testimony Roy Truly said that episode, two days before the assassination, was the only time he had ever seen or known a firearm to have been brought into the TSBD.

(* Hypothetical of how that could be a possible mechanism for introducing an assassination rifle into the TSBD: Person Y buys two rifles at lunchtime at a nearby store, recorded, paid for, for personal and family home use, one a Mauser and one a .22, packaged in a single package. Away from the store, another untraceable new Mauser is substituted for the newly-purchased Mauser in the packaging. The newly-purchased Mauser is taken to Y's parked car. Y returns to the TSBD and on the ground floor shows off the two rifles in the package to employees including Oswald gathered around, handing the untraceable Mauser around to hold and admire. Putting the rifles back in the packaging, Y takes the package with the two rifles not out to his car but to his second-story private office in the TSBD for the rest of the day. Y takes the untraceable Mauser out of the package and gives it to <whoever>/does <whatever> with it. There is now a Mauser somewhere inside the TSBD, untraceable, whereabouts unknown. At the end of the workday Y leaves the office with his package containing the .22 to his car. Y drives home with the original two rifles he had purchased. Y and family retain verified ownership for years of the same two rifles bought at lunchtime that day.)

Although the Warren Caster episode in which a rifle capable of assassination entered the TSBD and was carried to an office on a higher floor with windows facing the parade route, not confirmed to have left the building, two days before the assassination in which shots were fired from that building, may have been wholly innocent, one possibility is it was not innocent but made possible a mechanism for an assassination to proceed making use of that building without reliance upon the Carcano purchased from Oswald the day before the assassination.

Although the Warren Caster episode has been presumed to have been innocent and there is no known evidence that it was not, in the end that is a faith-based assessment. It is the equivalent of a security breach but without evidence that anything bad happened as a result of that security breach--faith-based.  

Even if, as you have suggested, Oswald sought to go to Cuba (if so), there is no obvious reason why that would mean he would sell or give away an unused Carcano before doing so. It could just as well be one more thing in storage abandoned, if so. I grew up with my great-grandfather's Civil War musket in our basement until in later years my practical-minded mother sold it to an antiques dealer. I am thinking there is no reason why Oswald would make an overt move to do anything with the Carcano until someone came to him with an offer of an appealing sum of money combined with a narrative that sounded good, and Oswald opportunistically took it. In this scenario, on Thursday Oswald felt rich and the future looked brighter. On Friday he was charged with the assassination of a president with the rifle he had just sold.

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The thing is that if you accept Oswald as a knowing participant in  False Flag operation, even firing shots, this is all really simple - assuming he does own a rifle that can be traced to him - and he willingly brings it to work and leaves it after the act.  Personally I also can't seen any reasonable effort to frame him which would rely on creating a rifle connection after the attack. That's just too complex.  A cooperative Oswald does make it really simple, but of course runs the risk of losing control over him quickly if he didn't realize it was all real.  Which of course implies he needed to be killed "in place"   We have all heard something like that scenario for decades, what we lack are the details on who sold the deal to him and why he trusted them.

But you are tackling a much harder scenario with the purchase question,  how to frame him without his being in on a False Flag attack. And as somebody pointed out, its really only the rifle and hulls that accomplish that.  His not being out front for the motorcade makes him suspicious but without the rifle he's at best as suspect - a better one if he leaves immediately of course.  Even then he had best be killed rather than captured.

So,  its just not anyone who has to get the gun from him,  its someone connected to the conspiracy since they also have to plant it without his knowledge.  You call out another option with the Castor episode that I've also heard discussed - Oswald might have commented on that, said he had a rifle and somebody offered to buy it right then - which would be handy because somebody working in the TSBD could easily plant it as well. 

Given that Oswald really did own a rifle and it was still in his possession, those in the conspiracy could figure out a way to get it - perhaps even offering him money for Marina and the kids if he was planning on leaving Dallas.   Or he could have talked to someone about owning a gun and they made and offer and bought it....

Anyone have thoughts on a tie breaker for those two options?



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Ron,  personally I'm not going back into that black hole.  My discussion here is in line with the False Flag concept where Oswald either has a rifle that will incriminate him and he brings it, or someone plants a rifle that can be traced to him and do that. 

If someone offers up a detailed scenario for who and why a third party would order a rifle for him and hold it for months to use for some purpose - and then use it in a frame in November -  that would be great and I'd love to see that laid out.

The False Flag works if you can plant a rifle to incriminate him or if he visibly takes credit by leaving a note, waving from the window, accepting guilt after the fact - but as has been mentioned elsewhere, other than that its the only hard core evidence to point an attack towards him and via him to Cuba.  

So how did a rifle that associated with him get there?   Otherwise you have to accept the premise it was totally made up after the fact and that would be a pretty risky plan for a real False Flag to frame Castro.

I'd just like to see some out of the box discussion for a change. 


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WC testimony of Marina Oswald February 3, 1964


Mr. RANKIN. Did you ever observe your husband taking the rifle away from the apartment on Neely Street?
Mrs. OSWALD. Now, I think that he probably did sometimes, but I never did see it. You must understand that sometimes I would be in the kitchen and he would be in his room downstairs, and he would say bye-bye, I will be hack soon, and he may have taken it. He probably did. Perhaps he purely waited for an occasion when he could take it away without my seeing it.


However, on March 3, 1964 Marina told FBI Agents, Wallace Heitman and Anatoly Boguslav that not only had she seen Oswald take the rifle out of the apartment in March, 1963, but that she had gone with him! This is CE1838



March 3, 1964




I'm sorry, but there is just no reconciling these two.

Guess where 1026 N. Beckley is?

Steve Thomas

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The late Gerry Hemming at one point claimed that he had purchased/offered to purchase Oswald's rifle from him prior to the assassination.

I don't recall the details.

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A couple of things come to mind generally, not in response to Greg's thesis.

  • How could it be explained if Oswald was shot dead at the theater by someone other than a policeman?  That he picked a gun battle with a stranger?  That he "shot himself in the head" out of remorse?  That a non-Hispanic Castro agent (Crafard or another Oswald look-alike) shot him to silence him, and escaped capture?  It seems like a police killing and a paper trail would be best outcome, but there were complications with both.
  • To avoid being identified in the darkened theater, the smartest exit for an Oswald assassin would be the door to the alley behind the screen that the police used to get in.  How did the police get in that door, anyway?  If it was the modern safety model, it could be opened from inside in emergencies, but would be locked to the outside.  (I remember seeing these doors in theaters as a boy, c. 1965; they have to predate that, hence the glowing Exit signs beside theater screens.)
  • What of the idea that Oswald's revolver was swapped for the revolver that another man used to kill Tippit?  How can that be fit into a theater assassination scenario? 
  • What of the mixed revolver and semi-auto shells found in the grass?  How do we reconcile these?  A killer with two pistols on him?
  • Could it be postulated that Ruth Paine forced the curtain rods on Oswald, and he took them so as not to displease his wife's benefactor (or one of his handlers)?  What did Ruth Paine say about the curtain rod transaction?  That too-big-for-his-lunch package has two witnesses (Frazier and Randle).  Did Ruth Paine say she saw it?  The package seems to be an essential part of the frame-up, not a cursory item.
Edited by David Andrews
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On 9/29/2021 at 7:14 AM, Larry Hancock said:

Ron,  personally I'm not going back into that black hole.  My discussion here is in line with the False Flag concept where Oswald either has a rifle that will incriminate him and he brings it, or someone plants a rifle that can be traced to him and do that. 

If someone offers up a detailed scenario for who and why a third party would order a rifle for him and hold it for months to use for some purpose - and then use it in a frame in November -  that would be great and I'd love to see that laid out.

The False Flag works if you can plant a rifle to incriminate him or if he visibly takes credit by leaving a note, waving from the window, accepting guilt after the fact - but as has been mentioned elsewhere, other than that its the only hard core evidence to point an attack towards him and via him to Cuba.  

So how did a rifle that associated with him get there?   Otherwise you have to accept the premise it was totally made up after the fact and that would be a pretty risky plan for a real False Flag to frame Castro.

I'd just like to see some out of the box discussion for a change. 


Larry, first I refuse to address Oswald selling his rifle the day before before.  It's absurd. A distraction.  

Second though, I don't think the issue of his ownership of the rifle or pistol is a total back hole anymore.  And that's important.  David Joseph in articles at Kennedys and King, along with another researcher who's name I can't recall at the moment and others have established a documented record that the official story regarding this is untrue. jmo from reading.  

With much respect, Ron

Edited by Ron Bulman
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Ron,  I know that I did comment on the possibility of Oswald getting rid of his rifle some time before the assassination and other parties using it to frame him but that's as far as I would go.  I'm very well aware of David's article on the official story of the  issues with the rifle purchase, but I will straight up say that any plan to kill the President of the United States which relies on the sole proof of "framing" a "lone nut" with the ownership of a weapon that associates that individual with the weapon by being contrived by the FBI totally after the fact makes no sense to me at all.  Especially when it leaves all the loose ends with the purchase and delivery issue that David and others point out.

Especially if you accept a plan leaving all those loose ends to be part of a highly efficient and even professional assassination.

The thing is (as we often complain about) that if you discount a rifle owned by Oswald and you can't connect Oswald to either the rifle or the ammunition used, there is no evidentiary "frame" in place at all at the time of the shooting.  The best you have is a guy working in the building who has been to Russia and protested in favor of the Castro regime.  Pretty darn weak.

Given that, the only option I could see would be that nobody really worked on seriously framing Oswald with any evidence, at best they left a rifle and some hulls in the TSBD and after the fact the FBI and all involved in a cover up contrived the evidence to frame Oswald out of whole cloth.  I could even accept that as possible since I posit that the damage control/cover up was almost entirely built in a helter skelter fashion after the fact.

For me it could go either way - Oswald did have a rifle and somebody framed him with it at the time of the shooting - or he didn't and he was totally framed with a sloppy evidence trail after the fact. Unfortunately choosing between the two is not a lot easier for me now than it ever has been.







Edited by Larry Hancock
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