Prayer Man

[John Cotter]

1 hour ago, Lance Payette said:

Prayer Man is the image. That's what Prayer Man means. The image is my only interest. If the Prayer Man image is Oswald, that's a huge problem for the Lone Nut position.

This thread was not my effort at a general Prayer Man discussion. I was explaining to Greg what I meant by my "1000% certain" remark.

I have read Sean Murphy's thread and pretty much everything else. I don't care about ancillary "evidence" that conspiracists think makes it "more likely" that Prayer Man may be Oswald. I care only about the issue of whether the Prayer Man image is Oswald.

No ancillary speculation is going to convince me Prayer Man is Oswald or even make me take the subject seriously. If the image is clearly shown to be Oswald, to my utter astonishment, I will be forced to take it seriously.

Describing circumstantial evidence pejoratively as “ancillary speculation” in an attempt to justify ignoring it and thus misrepresenting the Prayer Man case is a tacit admission, typical of straw man arguments, that you are unable to logically rebut it.

[Guest]

On 1/7/2023 at 3:23 PM, Roger Odisio said:

You care only about whether the *image* is Oswald because you have made up your mind about the *issue* of where Oswald was at the time of the shooting and are unwilling to reconsider it, except on that one, narrow ground.  Reconsidering it, that is, with your fingers crossed, no doubt, that the figure isn't Oswald, which would upset everything you have said or done in the past.  It's a nice gamble and at least allows you to claim an open mind about something, however false that impression is.

Which is one reason you ignored my explanation that the women on the stairs prove that Oswald wasn't on the 6th floor (see Barry Ernest, The Girl on the Stairs if you haven't read it).  Another reason is you can't refute it. 

Then you ignored the rest of my response in favor of simply repeating your assertions.

Thanks, anyway, for such a clear explanation of how I wasted my time responding to you thinking you might be interested in exploring the ultimate issue of who killed JFK and why.  I will know better if there is a next time.

Bye

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[Guest]

On 1/7/2023 at 3:36 PM, John Cotter said:

Describing circumstantial evidence pejoratively as “ancillary speculation” in an attempt to justify ignoring it and thus misrepresenting the Prayer Man case is a tacit admission, typical of straw man arguments, that you are unable to logically rebut it.

Hi

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[John Cotter]

56 minutes ago, Lance Payette said:

A straw man argument would be one in which I mischaracterized the Prayer Man community as having nothing except a blurry, shadowy image as the basis of their positiion. I have not done that.

You have done exactly that by ignoring the evidence which supports the Prayer Man case, thus mischaracterizing the case as consisting of the photographic images only.

Edited January 8, 2023 by John Cotter

[Andrej Stancak]

We live in the 21st century and have advanced computers and computer programs at our disposal. Why would it not be possible to determine with reasonable accuracy the features of Prayer Man such as the body height or posture from the stills available? Why would it not be possible to extract information about the type of his hairline and darkness of his hair? While too many frames in Darnell film are affected by the motion blur, there are a couple of stills which are steady, albeit do not show the facial features clearly enough to help with Prayer Man identification. 

Data on Prayer Man extracted from Darnell stills and the Hosty notes together give enough reasons to further explore the possibility of Lee Oswald being out for a short period of time during the assassination of Preseident Kennedy. Keeping this possibility open is important as it gives reasons to acquire first generation digital copies of Darnell and Wiegman film, i.e., the initiatives by Roger Odisio and/or the team of US lawyers including our own Larry Schnapf. The mills of truth turn very slowly to the taste of all of us, however, they turn and turn, and one day we will get access to both critical films.

There is still one feature in Prayer Man's figure that has not been explored sufficiently enough, and I am also guilty of that, and it is the large dark spot  seen on Prayer Man's shirt which appears to match the dark areas on shirt CE151 - the shirt Lee Oswald wore on Friday morning before changing it for the darker shirt CE150. If it is possible to match the dark spots on Prayer Man's shirt and the shirt CE151, the list of Prayer Man features matching Lee Oswald's figure would basically allow to claim identity even without being able to use the facial features owing to burnt-out white tones in Darnell still.

The research on Prayer Man continues on different fronts in parallel in a seemingly unrelated fashion; each valid bit of data, each detail and each testimony will eventually be taken into account before we can individually and as a community decide if Lee Oswald was out there standing at the western wall of the Depository doorway when President Kennedy was killed. 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Andrej Stancak

[Jeremy Bojczuk]

Lance Payette writes:

Quote

I certainly hope the originals of Darnell and Wiegman can be obtained and will settle the issue once and for all.

Good! Of course, it's possible that the originals might not be clear enough to confirm or rule out Oswald as the figure on the steps. But there's no reason not to want the question resolved. If it turns out not to be Oswald, we'll be no worse off than we are now. But if it does turn out to be Oswald, all hell will break loose. It will be the single most significant development in the case. There's really nothing to lose.

Quote

If Oswald was the designated patsy, what possible sense would it make for him to be standing on the steps of the TSBD at the time of the assassination? ... what possible scenario would have the patsy whose rifle was planted on the sixth floor standing on the steps of the TSBD at the time of the assassination

That objection only applies if Oswald had been designated in advance as the lone-nut patsy. It doesn't apply if the lone-nut explanation was not part of any plot and Oswald's intended purpose was merely to provide a link between the rifle and the Cuban and Soviet regimes. Most of the early speculation blamed the assassination on that well-known bogeyman, the International Communist Conspiracy; the lone-nut explanation was imposed later for political reasons.

Quote

You [Oswald] have an ironclad alibi that may well be corroborated by multiple witnesses or documented on film, but you don't even mention it?

This is a reasonable question, but it relies on hindsight. Oswald wasn't to know that he had less than two days to live. He might have assumed, naively perhaps, that the Dallas police would conduct a genuine, honest investigation and let him go in a day or two. He might have assumed that, at worst, he would be able to make his case at a trial, and that international attention would ensure a reasonably fair trial, at least by the standards of Texas in the early 1960s. He might have assumed that the accusation was so preposterous that it didn't need to be denied immediately and in detail.

It's also worth reading Greg Parker response to Lance's question, here:

https://reopenkennedycase.forumotion.net/t2675-lance-p-is-1000-certain#41143

Quote

Are we to suppose Fritz was so deeply involved in the conspiracy that he wouldn't have immediately attempted to verify Oswald's statement with potential witnesses or photos? If he was deeply involved, why would he and Bookhout have documented Oswald's possible alibi in the first place?

No, there's no need to suppose that Fritz was involved, let alone "deeply involved", in any pre-assassination conspiracy. See Greg Parker's comment in the link I've just given. Fritz was just doing what he did in numerous other cases.

Quote

It's pure <ul>happenstance</ul> that the Darnell and Wiegman films aren't crystal clear or that 20 other bystanders didn't happen to catch clear images of Prayer Man in films or photographs.

Indeed. There could easily have been (and may still be) clear, unambiguous photographic evidence that Oswald was nowhere near the sixth floor during or very shortly after the shooting. Again, such evidence would only cause a problem for a plot that required Oswald to have been on the sixth floor.

If, on the other hand, the plan had been merely to implicate the Cuban or Soviet regimes in the assassination, all that was needed was the presence on the sixth floor of a rifle that could be linked to a TSBD employee who could in turn be linked to those regimes. This is a point that many conspiracy theorists also fail to understand.

Quote

Unlike most conspiracy "evidence," it's one item that at least has the potential for a definitive answer one way or the other.

True. It's worth pointing out that a definitive identification of Oswald as the figure on the steps would destroy not only the lone-nut hypothesis but also a number of conspiracy theories. This may be why many conspiracy theorists appear uninterested in resolving the identity of the figure.

If your pet theory requires the assassination to have been orchestrated by a group of all-powerful masterminds, and that every incident that actually happened must have been planned in advance and carried out in precise detail, you really need Oswald to be up on the sixth floor, not standing on the steps. Few, if any, of the Grand Unified Theories of the assassination would survive the identification of Oswald as the figure on the steps.

Unfortunately for both lone-nut enthusiasts and everything-is-a-conspiracy theorists, the evidence that Oswald was on the sixth floor at 12.30 is pretty flimsy. The balance of the evidence suggests that he was on the ground floor when several witnesses saw a presumed gunman on the sixth floor between 12.15 and 12.30.

I suspect that the attraction of the assassination for the tin-foil hat type of conspiracy theorists is that it allows them to play games by inventing ridiculously elaborate conspiracies. The possibility of any definitive answers must be a scary prospect.

Quote

a dark and blurry image that theoretically could be Oswald or any one of a thousand other people

Realistically, the figure could be Oswald or very few other people. There are plausible grounds to eliminate (to varying degrees of certainty) non-TSBD employees as well as every TSBD employee who wasn't Oswald. The following article lays out the options:

http://22november1963.org.uk/prayer-man-jfk-assassination

The Prayer Man question isn't simply about an image of someone who looks a bit like Oswald. It's that an image exists which:

• not only bears some resemblance to Oswald but
• is consistent with what we now know about his often-misrepresented alibi,
• is unlikely to be anyone other than Oswald,
• and is consistent with all the other evidence placing Oswald on the ground floor when he was supposed (by lone-nutters and many conspiracy theorists) to have been on the sixth floor.

Even without the Prayer Man images, Oswald is more likely to have been on the ground floor than the sixth floor during the assassination. Those images could confirm what the balance of the existing evidence suggests.

For anyone who is unfamiliar with the details, you'll get a good account of the Prayer Man question from the following links:

• https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/20354-oswald-leaving-tsbd/ (see Sean Murphy's posts in particular; it's a shame he isn't still around)
• https://reopenkennedycase.forumotion.net/t388-prayer-man-on-the-education-forum
• http://www.prayer-man.com/misc/prayer-man-in-a-nutshell/

[Tom Gram]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Bojczuk said:

The Prayer Man question isn't simply about an image of someone who looks a bit like Oswald. It's that an image exists which:

• not only bears some resemblance to Oswald but
• is consistent with what we now know about his often-misrepresented alibi,
• is unlikely to be anyone other than Oswald,
• and is consistent with all the other evidence placing Oswald on the ground floor when he was supposed (by lone-nutters and many conspiracy theorists) to have been on the sixth floor.

This is a great summary Jeremy. Despite immense efforts to prove otherwise, I think it’s obvious from the image that PM is absolutely not Sarah Stanton - who was significantly overweight and most importantly had big grey/blonde poofy ass hair. 

So we have a case where there’s a real probability that it is actually Oswald, and the only viable alternative is a random non-TSBD employee who no one remembered. 

Regardless of your opinions on the case, or even on PM, everyone should support obtaining the original films so we can finally figure this out. It really is the ultimate win-win. If it isn’t Oswald we solve a major mystery, and finally get access to clear copies of films that may show other evidence we haven’t even thought of. 

[Roger Odisio]

4 hours ago, Jeremy Bojczuk said:

Lance Payette writes:

Good! Of course, it's possible that the originals might not be clear enough to confirm or rule out Oswald as the figure on the steps. But there's no reason not to want the question resolved. If it turns out not to be Oswald, we'll be no worse off than we are now. But if it does turn out to be Oswald, all hell will break loose. It will be the single most significant development in the case. There's really nothing to lose.

That objection only applies if Oswald had been designated in advance as the lone-nut patsy. It doesn't apply if the lone-nut explanation was not part of any plot and Oswald's intended purpose was merely to provide a link between the rifle and the Cuban and Soviet regimes. Most of the early speculation blamed the assassination on that well-known bogeyman, the International Communist Conspiracy; the lone-nut explanation was imposed later for political reasons.

This is a reasonable question, but it relies on hindsight. Oswald wasn't to know that he had less than two days to live. He might have assumed, naively perhaps, that the Dallas police would conduct a genuine, honest investigation and let him go in a day or two. He might have assumed that, at worst, he would be able to make his case at a trial, and that international attention would ensure a reasonably fair trial, at least by the standards of Texas in the early 1960s. He might have assumed that the accusation was so preposterous that it didn't need to be denied immediately and in detail.

It's also worth reading Greg Parker response to Lance's question, here:

https://reopenkennedycase.forumotion.net/t2675-lance-p-is-1000-certain#41143

No, there's no need to suppose that Fritz was involved, let alone "deeply involved", in any pre-assassination conspiracy. See Greg Parker's comment in the link I've just given. Fritz was just doing what he did in numerous other cases.

Indeed. There could easily have been (and may still be) clear, unambiguous photographic evidence that Oswald was nowhere near the sixth floor during or very shortly after the shooting. Again, such evidence would only cause a problem for a plot that required Oswald to have been on the sixth floor.

If, on the other hand, the plan had been merely to implicate the Cuban or Soviet regimes in the assassination, all that was needed was the presence on the sixth floor of a rifle that could be linked to a TSBD employee who could in turn be linked to those regimes. This is a point that many conspiracy theorists also fail to understand.

True. It's worth pointing out that a definitive identification of Oswald as the figure on the steps would destroy not only the lone-nut hypothesis but also a number of conspiracy theories. This may be why many conspiracy theorists appear uninterested in resolving the identity of the figure.

If your pet theory requires the assassination to have been orchestrated by a group of all-powerful masterminds, and that every incident that actually happened must have been planned in advance and carried out in precise detail, you really need Oswald to be up on the sixth floor, not standing on the steps. Few, if any, of the Grand Unified Theories of the assassination would survive the identification of Oswald as the figure on the steps.

Unfortunately for both lone-nut enthusiasts and everything-is-a-conspiracy theorists, the evidence that Oswald was on the sixth floor at 12.30 is pretty flimsy. The balance of the evidence suggests that he was on the ground floor when several witnesses saw a presumed gunman on the sixth floor between 12.15 and 12.30.

I suspect that the attraction of the assassination for the tin-foil hat type of conspiracy theorists is that it allows them to play games by inventing ridiculously elaborate conspiracies. The possibility of any definitive answers must be a scary prospect.

Realistically, the figure could be Oswald or very few other people. There are plausible grounds to eliminate (to varying degrees of certainty) non-TSBD employees as well as every TSBD employee who wasn't Oswald. The following article lays out the options:

http://22november1963.org.uk/prayer-man-jfk-assassination

The Prayer Man question isn't simply about an image of someone who looks a bit like Oswald. It's that an image exists which:

• not only bears some resemblance to Oswald but
• is consistent with what we now know about his often-misrepresented alibi,
• is unlikely to be anyone other than Oswald,
• and is consistent with all the other evidence placing Oswald on the ground floor when he was supposed (by lone-nutters and many conspiracy theorists) to have been on the sixth floor.

Even without the Prayer Man images, Oswald is more likely to have been on the ground floor than the sixth floor during the assassination. Those images could confirm what the balance of the existing evidence suggests.

For anyone who is unfamiliar with the details, you'll get a good account of the Prayer Man question from the following links:

• https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/20354-oswald-leaving-tsbd/ (see Sean Murphy's posts in particular; it's a shame he isn't still around)
• https://reopenkennedycase.forumotion.net/t388-prayer-man-on-the-education-forum
• http://www.prayer-man.com/misc/prayer-man-in-a-nutshell/

Let me emphasize one part of Greg's response that Jeremy pointed to.

GP:  Jarman and Norman
You can set Shelley aside if you want, since he failed to corroborate Oswald. What is not included in  the link is that at about 12:25, Junior Jarman and Shorty Norman reentered the building from the rear loading dock. The time stamp is based on them hearing a police radio report at that time as they walked around the back.  Oswald told his interrogators that he saw them coming in. He could not have seen them from the 6th floor - or where idiots on "my" side have him - the 2nd floor lunch room. The one place he could see this from was the laborer's break room on the 1st floor.

Now you claim that Oswald lied to interrogators - and in this case, Fritz in his report said 

"in talking with him further about his location at the time the President was killed, he said he ate lunch with some of the colored boys who worked with him. One of them was called "Junior" and the other one was a little short man whose name he did not know." 

While in FBI Agent Bookhout's report on the same interview, we find.

"Oswald stated that on November 22, 1963, he had eaten lunch in the lunch room at the Texas School Book Depository, alone, but recalled possibly two Negro employees walking through the room during this period. He stated possibly one of these employees was called "Junior" and the other was short individual whose name he could not recall but whom he would be able to recognize."

Bookhout's is the more accurate - except for one detail. It is impossible to "walk through" the break room. There is only one door in and it's the same door out. The room Oswald saw them walk through was the open area of the floor. 

Fritz and the practice of verballing
Fritz changed what Oswald said for one reason and one reason  only - so that he could ask Jarman and Norman if they ate lunch with Oswald, knowing they would truthfully answer "no" - and thereby put another knife into Oswald's alibi. 
 

RO:  To summarize the major pieces of evidence we know so far that Oswald was not on the 6th floor at the time of the shooting:

* The 4th floor women say that they did not see or hear Oswald on the steps after the shots.  Particularly Dorothy Garner, their supervisor, who stayed behind on the 4th floor while two others descended the steps, and was still there when Truly and Baker reached her.  After T& B were supposed to have encountered Oswald on the second floor.

* In his first interrogation, according to Hosty's notes, Oswald said he went out to watch the "P Parade" after eating his lunch on the first floor.  

*  Oswald's sighting of Jarman and Norman on the first floor at about 12:35 that Greg describes. If Oswald were the shooter he had to have been on the 6th floor before then, not the first floor.  The motorcade was late. I believe it was supposed to arrive at about 12:15.  This is a little noticed and greatly underappreciated point.

*  The Darnell and Wiegman films of the aftermath on Elm Street briefly showing the Book Depository steps.

Some will be convinced of Oswald's whereabouts only if they can clearly see him on the films.  But all of this evidence matters and must be explained by anyone claiming Oswald murdered JFK from the 6th floor window.

[Guest]

Hi

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[Roger Odisio]

1 hour ago, Lance Payette said:

This shall be my final word on Prayer Man. Get back to me when you have a clear image. Not when you’re 83% sure it “could be” Oswald for reasons having nothing to do with image.

Truly, I care essentially nothing about Prayer Man. I simply used PM in an offhand comment as an example of a conspiracy theory I regard as goofy. I could’ve used Harvey & Lee or a number of other theories. This thread was just my attempt to explain to Greg that I’m obviously not “1000% certain” PM isn’t Oswald and won’t be until a clear image is obtained.

Here, I’m going to take the PM theory at face value: Oswald was an unwitting patsy. He thought Friday, November 22, was just another day at work. In the period immediately before the assassination, he was eating lunch on the first floor. He then wandered out to the steps to watch the motorcade. He was entirely truthful in telling this to interrogators. Hosty’s notes reflect the reality of what he actually said and what actually occurred. The PM image will eventually be shown to be him.

Let’s see where this leads and how plausible it sounds. Let’s see how it stacks up against “Oswald went to Ruth’s house and got his rifle, shot JFK, escaped the TSBD, and lied about pretty much everything when caught.”

• The planning for JFK’s trip to Dallas began in June. The dates of November 21-22 were decided upon in September and announced to the Dallas Morning News on September 25. Frazier went to work at the TSBD the same month. Ruth brought Marina and the Oswalds’ possessions to her home the same month. Oswald began working at the TSBD on October 15. The motorcade route was planned and finalized in mid-November and publicized on November 19.
   
• Oswald thus began working at the TSBD nearly a month before the Trade Mart had been chosen for JFK’s speech or the motorcade route had been determined. If you think Oswald was a plant in the TSBD, part of a conspiracy that began in September or earlier, you bring into the conspiracy Secret Service (and possibly White House) personnel associated with planning the trip and route, Ruth Paine, perhaps Frazier and Randle, and Roy Truly.
   
• If you think Oswald simply landed his job at the TSBD as a matter of happenstance, then the time frame for the conspirators to designate him as their patsy was very short – really just the week to ten days in after the motorcade route was planned and finalized. They would’ve had to know enough about him to realize he was a patsy candidate.
   
• Assuming Oswald’s rifle was in Ruth’s garage, the conspirators had to know this and surreptitiously retrieve it during the available time frame. Who would have notified them? Ruth? Marina? In any event, the conspiracy becomes more complex.
   
• Or perhaps you think Oswald never owned a rifle and the conspirators had it all along. This is contrary to such a mountain of evidence that I regard it as too absurd to discuss further. But if it’s what you think, you have expanded the conspiracy exponentially, in terms of both complexity and the number of conspirators involved. You would also have to explain why the conspirators would have selected such an unlikely assassination weapon as the Carcano.
   
• The conspirators likewise managed to get the rifle into the TSBD on or before November 22. Either they were exceedingly clever or had inside help at the TSBD. They managed to get it into place on the sixth floor sometime before 12:30 p.m. on November 22 without being seen as they placed spent shells under the window and stashed the rifle in the stairwell.
   
• But wait, bullet fragments were traced to Oswald’s rifle to the exclusion of all others. Ergo, either some conspirator was on the sixth floor shooting at JFK or all the bullet fragments are plants. Just as Vicki Adams and Sandra Styles didn’t see Oswald running down the stairs, they didn’t see any conspirators either – no one did. Either way, the conspiracy becomes exponentially more complex and risky.
   
• Oswald went to Ruth’s house on November 21 for some reason completely unrelated to the assassination. It was his first-ever Thursday trip and just happened to be the day before the assassination. For some unknown reason, he told Frazier he wanted to get curtain rods. He said nothing to Ruth or Marina about curtain rods (unless they and perhaps Frazier were lying as part of the conspiracy).
   
• The next morning, Oswald made a lunch of a sandwich and an apple. He placed it in a bag more than two feet long that appeared to Randle to almost touch the ground as he approached her house. When Frazier asked what was in the package, for some reason Oswald said curtain rods instead of his lunch. (Unless Frazier and Randle were lying as part of the conspiracy.) He left behind his wedding ring and almost all his cash just because he was disappointed Marina didn’t agree to immediately join him in Dallas.
   
• As Oswald approached the TSBD, he carried his modest lunch with one end cupped in his hand and the other tucked under his armpit.
   
• Oswald then embarked on an ordinary workday. He had no idea that his rifle was, or soon would be, in the building. He was oblivious to the President’s arrival, expressing surprise when a coworker told him about it in mid-morning. He and numerous coworkers spent a large amount of the morning on the sixth floor, but the conspirators were undeterred by this inconvenience. Oswald’s clipboard, later found on the sixth floor, shows that he filled no orders, but he was surely occupied with other non-assassination-related tasks. Or perhaps the clipboard was planted in furtherance of the conspiracy.
   
• Oswald then went to lunch. He bought a coke on the second floor and went to the first-floor lunchroom to eat. After finishing lunch, he went outside to watch the motorcade. (All per Hosty’s notes.)
   
• We will treat Hosty’s notes as gospel, even though Kelley’s report has Oswald saying he ate lunch with “the two colored boys” and did not view the parade at all. Fritz’s cryptic notes appear to describe the encounter with Baker, then “to 1st floor had lunch” and “out with Bill Shelley in front.” Holmes’ and Bookhout’s version are also slightly variant. We can attribute this either to conspiratorial intent or simple sloppiness.
   
• While Oswald was eating lunch, one or more conspirators were on the sixth floor firing his rifle. No one saw them arrive, shoot or leave. Not even Vicki Adams or Sandra Styles. Or maybe they were disguised, perhaps as police officers, so as to blend in.
   
• The Baker encounter is consistent with Oswald’s alibi, but alas it was after the assassination. Ergo, Baker and Truly have conspiratorially invented this encounter. Mrs. Reid’s testimony is likewise consistent with Oswald’s claim to have bought a coke – but she clearly saw him on the second floor after the assassination because she mentioned the shots to him. Perhaps he came back up and bought another coke.
   
•  It seems odd that Fritz’s notes would’ve said “with Bill Shelley” unless Oswald actually said this. Shelley denied it. He was either very unobservant, part of the conspiracy, or intimidated into lying. None of the TSBD employees actually on the steps saw Oswald either. Ditto for them.
   
• Oswald was still oblivious to the reality that his rifle was in the building. He had no reason to be concerned. Nevertheless, he immediately left the building, changed from a bus to a taxi, went to his rooming house, and obtained his handgun.
   
• As Oswald strolled along, Officer Tippitt stopped him. One or more individuals appeared as if by magic and shot Tippit. I leave to others to discern what this aspect of the conspiracy was all about and whether it was Tippit or his killers who were part of the conspiracy. Oswald must’ve been equally puzzled.
   
• Oswald proceeded to the Texas Theater for some reason, pausing to linger in a shoe store window as police vehicles roared past. He entered the theater without buying a ticket because he was just a cheap guy. When confronted by police, he drew his gun. None of this is related to the assassination. In fact, everything that occurred from the rooming house to the theater may have been in furtherance of the conspiracy, thereby exponentially increasing the complexity and number of conspirators.
   
• Oswald was supposed to have been killed the day of the assassination. Amazingly, the conspirators failed to accomplish this at the TSBD, while he was on his way to the rooming house, when he was on his way to the theater, or during his arrest when he pulled his gun. Those charged with this aspect of the conspiracy fumbled the ball to a remarkable degree, necessitating a live-TV murder by conspiratorial stooge Ruby.
   
• Because all that mattered was for Oswald’s rifle to be found on the sixth floor, the conspirators didn’t care where he was during the assassination. Eating in the lunch room? No problem. The TSBD steps? No problem. The fact that multiple witnesses and even photographs and films might verify that he was nowhere near the sixth floor? No problem, just a business risk the conspirators were willing to take even though it seemingly could have been easily avoided. The logic here admittedly escapes me, but this is what occurred. (Jeremy has added the twist that the sole purpose was for Oswald’s rifle to be found and establish a connection to the USSR and Cuba. Never mind where Oswald was. Here was well, the logic escapes me.)
   
• During interrogation, Oswald denied owning a rifle, said the backyard photos were fake, denied knowing anything about the fake Hidell ID, said Frazier was mistaken about curtain rods, and said Ruth and Marina were lying about a rifle wrapped in a blanket in Ruth's garage. He had a long history of lying about even inconsequential matters. Nevertheless, he was telling the truth when he said he was in the first-floor lunchroom and went outside to watch the motorcade.
   
• After his arrest, Oswald interacted with numerous people he might’ve trusted with his alibi that “I was on the steps watching the motorcade! Someone must’ve seen me!” This included the press, his mother, his wife, his brother and a Dallas attorney. He remained silent either because he was shy and semi-autistic (notwithstanding his public activities for the FPFC Committee) or thought he would have more time to establish his defense. His silence under the circumstances is completely understandable.

Please, tell me you aren’t serious, you aren’t this delusional. Prayer Man and all that flows from it is a staggering example of ad hoc reasoning. Real-world conspiracies – not to mention Presidential assassinations involving sophisticated conspirators – don’t look anything like this. By the time you work your way backward and forward from PM, you’ve got a conspiracy so complex, so elaborate, involving so many participants that Rube Goldberg would've collapsed in giggles.

But forget all the above. I still say the core issue clinches the deal: YOU HAVE NOT, AND YOU CANNOT, ARTICULATE A RATIONAL REASON OSWALD WOULD HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO BE IN THE LUNCH ROOM OR ON TSBD STEPS DURING THE ASSASSINATION.

Whenever someone says this is my last post on a topic, there is no point in responding to the nonsense that often follows.  My post was not meant for you, Lance, but for others who are actually interested in figuring out what happened that day. 

[David Von Pein]

2 hours ago, Lance Payette said:

This shall be my final word on Prayer Man. Get back to me when you have a clear image. Not when you’re 83% sure it “could be” Oswald for reasons having nothing to do with image.

Truly, I care essentially nothing about Prayer Man. I simply used PM in an offhand comment as an example of a conspiracy theory I regard as goofy. I could’ve used Harvey & Lee or a number of other theories. This thread was just my attempt to explain to Greg that I’m obviously not “1000% certain” PM isn’t Oswald and won’t be until a clear image is obtained.

Here, I’m going to take the PM theory at face value: Oswald was an unwitting patsy. He thought Friday, November 22, was just another day at work. In the period immediately before the assassination, he was eating lunch on the first floor. He then wandered out to the steps to watch the motorcade. He was entirely truthful in telling this to interrogators. Hosty’s notes reflect the reality of what he actually said and what actually occurred. The PM image will eventually be shown to be him.

Let’s see where this leads and how plausible it sounds. Let’s see how it stacks up against “Oswald went to Ruth’s house and got his rifle, shot JFK, escaped the TSBD, and lied about pretty much everything when caught.”

• The planning for JFK’s trip to Dallas began in June. The dates of November 21-22 were decided upon in September and announced to the Dallas Morning News on September 25. Frazier went to work at the TSBD the same month. Ruth brought Marina and the Oswalds’ possessions to her home the same month. Oswald began working at the TSBD on October 15. The motorcade route was planned and finalized in mid-November and publicized on November 19.
   
• Oswald thus began working at the TSBD nearly a month before the Trade Mart had been chosen for JFK’s speech or the motorcade route had been determined. If you think Oswald was a plant in the TSBD, part of a conspiracy that began in September or earlier, you bring into the conspiracy Secret Service (and possibly White House) personnel associated with planning the trip and route, Ruth Paine, perhaps Frazier and Randle, and Roy Truly.
   
• If you think Oswald simply landed his job at the TSBD as a matter of happenstance, then the time frame for the conspirators to designate him as their patsy was very short – really just the week to ten days in after the motorcade route was planned and finalized. They would’ve had to know enough about him to realize he was a patsy candidate.
   
• Assuming Oswald’s rifle was in Ruth’s garage, the conspirators had to know this and surreptitiously retrieve it during the available time frame. Who would have notified them? Ruth? Marina? In any event, the conspiracy becomes more complex.
   
• Or perhaps you think Oswald never owned a rifle and the conspirators had it all along. This is contrary to such a mountain of evidence that I regard it as too absurd to discuss further. But if it’s what you think, you have expanded the conspiracy exponentially, in terms of both complexity and the number of conspirators involved. You would also have to explain why the conspirators would have selected such an unlikely assassination weapon as the Carcano.
   
• The conspirators likewise managed to get the rifle into the TSBD on or before November 22. Either they were exceedingly clever or had inside help at the TSBD. They managed to get it into place on the sixth floor sometime before 12:30 p.m. on November 22 without being seen as they placed spent shells under the window and stashed the rifle in the stairwell.
   
• But wait, bullet fragments were traced to Oswald’s rifle to the exclusion of all others. Ergo, either some conspirator was on the sixth floor shooting at JFK or all the bullet fragments are plants. Just as Vicki Adams and Sandra Styles didn’t see Oswald running down the stairs, they didn’t see any conspirators either – no one did. Either way, the conspiracy becomes exponentially more complex and risky.
   
• Oswald went to Ruth’s house on November 21 for some reason completely unrelated to the assassination. It was his first-ever Thursday trip and just happened to be the day before the assassination. For some unknown reason, he told Frazier he wanted to get curtain rods. He said nothing to Ruth or Marina about curtain rods (unless they and perhaps Frazier were lying as part of the conspiracy).
   
• The next morning, Oswald made a lunch of a sandwich and an apple. He placed it in a bag more than two feet long that appeared to Randle to almost touch the ground as he approached her house. When Frazier asked what was in the package, for some reason Oswald said curtain rods instead of his lunch. (Unless Frazier and Randle were lying as part of the conspiracy.) He left behind his wedding ring and almost all his cash just because he was disappointed Marina didn’t agree to immediately join him in Dallas.
   
• As Oswald approached the TSBD, he carried his modest lunch with one end cupped in his hand and the other tucked under his armpit.
   
• Oswald then embarked on an ordinary workday. He had no idea that his rifle was, or soon would be, in the building. He was oblivious to the President’s arrival, expressing surprise when a coworker told him about it in mid-morning. He and numerous coworkers spent a large amount of the morning on the sixth floor, but the conspirators were undeterred by this inconvenience. Oswald’s clipboard, later found on the sixth floor, shows that he filled no orders, but he was surely occupied with other non-assassination-related tasks. Or perhaps the clipboard was planted in furtherance of the conspiracy.
   
• Oswald then went to lunch. He bought a coke on the second floor and went to the first-floor lunchroom to eat. After finishing lunch, he went outside to watch the motorcade. (All per Hosty’s notes.)
   
• We will treat Hosty’s notes as gospel, even though Kelley’s report has Oswald saying he ate lunch with “the two colored boys” and did not view the parade at all. Fritz’s cryptic notes appear to describe the encounter with Baker, then “to 1st floor had lunch” and “out with Bill Shelley in front.” Holmes’ and Bookhout’s version are also slightly variant. We can attribute this either to conspiratorial intent or simple sloppiness.
   
• While Oswald was eating lunch, one or more conspirators were on the sixth floor firing his rifle. No one saw them arrive, shoot or leave. Not even Vicki Adams or Sandra Styles. Or maybe they were disguised, perhaps as police officers, so as to blend in.
   
• The Baker encounter is consistent with Oswald’s alibi, but alas it was after the assassination. Ergo, Baker and Truly have conspiratorially invented this encounter. Mrs. Reid’s testimony is likewise consistent with Oswald’s claim to have bought a coke – but she clearly saw him on the second floor after the assassination because she mentioned the shots to him. Perhaps he came back up and bought another coke.
   
•  It seems odd that Fritz’s notes would’ve said “with Bill Shelley” unless Oswald actually said this. Shelley denied it. He was either very unobservant, part of the conspiracy, or intimidated into lying. None of the TSBD employees actually on the steps saw Oswald either. Ditto for them.
   
• Oswald was still oblivious to the reality that his rifle was in the building. He had no reason to be concerned. Nevertheless, he immediately left the building, changed from a bus to a taxi, went to his rooming house, and obtained his handgun.
   
• As Oswald strolled along, Officer Tippitt stopped him. One or more individuals appeared as if by magic and shot Tippit. I leave to others to discern what this aspect of the conspiracy was all about and whether it was Tippit or his killers who were part of the conspiracy. Oswald must’ve been equally puzzled.
   
• Oswald proceeded to the Texas Theater for some reason, pausing to linger in a shoe store window as police vehicles roared past. He entered the theater without buying a ticket because he was just a cheap guy. When confronted by police, he drew his gun. None of this is related to the assassination. In fact, everything that occurred from the rooming house to the theater may have been in furtherance of the conspiracy, thereby exponentially increasing the complexity and number of conspirators.
   
• Oswald was supposed to have been killed the day of the assassination. Amazingly, the conspirators failed to accomplish this at the TSBD, while he was on his way to the rooming house, when he was on his way to the theater, or during his arrest when he pulled his gun. Those charged with this aspect of the conspiracy fumbled the ball to a remarkable degree, necessitating a live-TV murder by conspiratorial stooge Ruby.
   
• Because all that mattered was for Oswald’s rifle to be found on the sixth floor, the conspirators didn’t care where he was during the assassination. Eating in the lunch room? No problem. The TSBD steps? No problem. The fact that multiple witnesses and even photographs and films might verify that he was nowhere near the sixth floor? No problem, just a business risk the conspirators were willing to take even though it seemingly could have been easily avoided. The logic here admittedly escapes me, but this is what occurred. (Jeremy has added the twist that the sole purpose was for Oswald’s rifle to be found and establish a connection to the USSR and Cuba. Never mind where Oswald was. Here was well, the logic escapes me.)
   
• During interrogation, Oswald denied owning a rifle, said the backyard photos were fake, denied knowing anything about the fake Hidell ID, said Frazier was mistaken about curtain rods, and said Ruth and Marina were lying about a rifle wrapped in a blanket in Ruth's garage. He had a long history of lying about even inconsequential matters. Nevertheless, he was telling the truth when he said he was in the first-floor lunchroom and went outside to watch the motorcade.
   
• After his arrest, Oswald interacted with numerous people he might’ve trusted with his alibi that “I was on the steps watching the motorcade! Someone must’ve seen me!” This included the press, his mother, his wife, his brother and a Dallas attorney. He remained silent either because he was shy and semi-autistic (notwithstanding his public activities for the FPFC Committee) or thought he would have more time to establish his defense. His silence under the circumstances is completely understandable.

Please, tell me you aren’t serious, you aren’t this delusional. Prayer Man and all that flows from it is a staggering example of ad hoc reasoning. Real-world conspiracies – not to mention Presidential assassinations involving sophisticated conspirators – don’t look anything like this. By the time you work your way backward and forward from PM, you’ve got a conspiracy so complex, so elaborate, involving so many participants that Rube Goldberg would've collapsed in giggles.

But forget all the above. I still say the core issue clinches the deal: YOU HAVE NOT, AND YOU CANNOT, ARTICULATE A RATIONAL REASON OSWALD WOULD HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO BE IN THE LUNCH ROOM OR ON TSBD STEPS DURING THE ASSASSINATION.

What a fantastic post, Lance. Thank you for taking the time to write it. It's a CS&L* gold mine.

* Common Sense & Logic.

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by David Von Pein

[Tom Gram]

2 hours ago, Lance Payette said:

But forget all the above. I still say the core issue clinches the deal: YOU HAVE NOT, AND YOU CANNOT, ARTICULATE A RATIONAL REASON OSWALD WOULD HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO BE IN THE LUNCH ROOM OR ON TSBD STEPS DURING THE ASSASSINATION.

I can’t speak for Greg, but he did address this issue. Basically, you are assuming that the original plan was to frame Oswald as a lone nut. If the plan was to create the appearance of a Communist conspiracy by connecting the rifle to Oswald who could subsequently be linked to the Cubans and/or Russians it wouldn’t really matter where Oswald was standing at the time of the shooting. 

[W. Tracy Parnell]

1 hour ago, David Von Pein said:

What a fantastic post, Lance. Thank you for taking the time to write it. It's a CS&L* gold mine.

* Common Sense & Logic.

 

Good job Lance.

[Jonathan Cohen]

3 hours ago, Tom Gram said:

I can’t speak for Greg, but he did address this issue. Basically, you are assuming that the original plan was to frame Oswald as a lone nut. If the plan was to create the appearance of a Communist conspiracy by connecting the rifle to Oswald who could subsequently be linked to the Cubans and/or Russians it wouldn’t really matter where Oswald was standing at the time of the shooting. 

Tom, if this was indeed the plan, why did it collapse so quickly and instead become “Oswald did it by himself” ?

[Jeremy Bojczuk]

Lance Payette screams:

Quote

YOU HAVE NOT, AND YOU CANNOT, ARTICULATE A RATIONAL REASON OSWALD WOULD HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO BE IN THE LUNCH ROOM OR ON TSBD STEPS DURING THE ASSASSINATION.

Using bold face and capitals doesn't turn a weak objection into a sound one. If YOU refers to me, I did in fact explain why it wouldn't matter where Oswald was during the shooting.

If your plan is to kill Kennedy in a way that implicates the Cuban or Soviet regimes, you don't need your Cuban- or Soviet-linked patsy to do the shooting. You just need to link him to the rifle, and link the rifle to the shooting. Requiring the said patsy to be out of sight on the sixth floor, or in the second-floor lunchroom or wherever, just adds unnecessary complication, and increases the risk of something going wrong.

The notion of an international communist conspiracy was widely believed back then. It wouldn't have taken investigators long to learn that the guy who appeared to have ordered the rifle was the same guy who had defected to the Soviet Union and later became a public pro-Castro propagandist. 2 + 2 = Castro or the Soviets did it.

As for the transformation from Oswald the communist conspirator to Oswald the lone nut, the lone nut theory was imposed by politicians for straightforward political reasons: either they were frightened by the prospect of demands for war, or they feared that the domestic population might increase its distrust of established political institutions, or both.

This transformation implies, of course, that those politicians probably weren't among the people who planned the assassination. It also implies that the assassination wasn't planned down to the smallest detail, and, needless to say, there weren't any Oswald doppelgangers chasing each other around Dallas, or presidential body-snatching squads, or any of that sort of nonsense.