Taking seriously Oswald's front steps alibi claim

[Sandy Larsen]

33 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

Do all of the conspiracy theorists who currently endorse the "Oswald Is Prayer Man" theory really and truly believe that Lee Harvey Oswald would have actually had a desire to go back into the TSBD Building within just seconds of the shots being fired at JFK?

 

I don't understand your bewilderment. Why wouldn't Oswald go back inside the TSBD after the shooting?

 

[David Von Pein]

8 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

I don't understand your bewilderment. Why wouldn't Oswald go back inside the TSBD after the shooting?

Then why, after going back into the building within seconds of the shooting (per the PM theorists), did Oswald then leave the building AND leave Dealey Plaza a minute or two later?

 

Edited 12 hours ago by David Von Pein

[Sandy Larsen]

38 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

... why would [LHO] have wanted to delay his departure (i.e., "getaway") for even a few seconds by going back into a building that he likely knew was going to be sealed off by police at any moment

 

You are assuming that LHO's leaving was a "getaway." Given that he was outside watching the motorcade at the time of the shooting, he couldn't have shot Kennedy and there was no need for a getaway. (Besides, how is going to a theater supposed to save save someone from being apprehended?)

It appears that Oswald went the theater to meet someone. It appears that he was supposed to be there at a certain time.

 

[Sandy Larsen]

9 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

Then why, after going back into the building within seconds of the shooting (per the PM theorists), did Oswald then leave the building AND leave Dealey Plaza a minute or two later?

 

 

Work was cancelled for the day. There was no reason to stay there.

This is pure speculation, but I'll bet that Oswald telephoned his handler and informed him that a shooting had taken place. And his handler instructed him to meet someone at the theater for further instructions.

 

[Joseph McBride]

I've never bought the cliché that Dealey Plaza

in reality seems smaller than it appears in photos and

films and videos. When I first went there in 1983,

its dimensions seemed exactly what I had expected

from seeing images of it many times (also including maps) and reading

a lot about it. I think that cliché applies to people who know little

about the place ahead of visiting it.

Edited 11 hours ago by Joseph McBride

[David Von Pein]

59 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

Work was cancelled for the day. There was no reason to stay there.

This is pure speculation, but I'll bet that Oswald telephoned his handler and informed him that a shooting had taken place. And his handler instructed him to meet someone at the theater for further instructions.

But Oswald had no way of knowing that "work was cancelled" at the time he left the building (which was at approx. 12:33 PM, give or take). Do you think Oswald, as of ca. 12:33, was already guessing (correctly) that there wouldn't be any more work done that day?

I know that last question is irrelevant to you anyway, Sandy. You think Oswald would have left for his (make-believe) theater rendezvous even if Lee didn't suspect that his work day was over.

But why run the risk of other theater patrons overhearing (or seeing) LHO and Ruth Paine (er, uh, I mean the phantom person you say was Lee's "handler", or the "someone" you think the "handler" told LHO to meet at the Texas Theater)?

Wouldn't a better and safer "rendezvous" be for the handler (or the unknown "someone") to simply pick up Oswald on some Dallas side street (or alley) and then the two of them sit and talk, in private, in the handler's 1955 station wagon (er, uh, I mean the handler's vehicle---whatever model car it was)?

Don't tell me the "someone" that Oswald was supposed to meet in the theater had the same motor vehicle impairment that Lee Oswald also had on 11/22/63?! --- I.E., no driver's license and no car?! 😁

 

Edited 11 hours ago by David Von Pein

[Sandy Larsen]

37 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

But Oswald had no way of knowing that "work was cancelled" at the time he left the building (which was at approx. 12:33 PM, give or take).

 

Didn't Shelley tell Oswald there would be no more work for the day?

 

37 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

But why run the risk of other theater patrons overhearing (or seeing) LHO and Ruth Paine (er, uh, I mean the phantom person you say was Lee's "handler", or the "someone" you think the "handler" told LHO to meet at the Texas Theater)?

 

(Not Ruth Paine.)

Well they have to meet somewhere.

If one person arrives extremely late, the other can relax in a comfortable chair and watch the movie. Eat popcorn and Red Vines.

Upon meeting, they can walk somewhere private.

 

37 minutes ago, David Von Pein said:

 

 

[David Von Pein]

21 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

Didn't Shelley tell Oswald there would be no more work for the day?

Bill Shelley most certainly did not tell Oswald that work was finished for the day.

The "Shelley" references we find in Bookhout's 11/22 FBI report are, of course, just a sample of the many lies that Oswald told the authorities after LHO was arrested. Shelley confirmed that the last time he saw Oswald on Nov. 22 was prior to 12 Noon [7 H 390].

So, is Shelley more believable on this point....or is Lee Oswald the one who is telling the truth? (I think the answer is obvious.)

Edited 10 hours ago by David Von Pein

[Greg Doudna]

 

1 hour ago, David Von Pein said:

Bill Shelley most certainly did not tell Oswald that work was finished for the day.

The "Shelley" references we find in Bookhout's 11/22 FBI report are, of course, just a sample of the many lies that Oswald told the authorities after LHO was arrested. Shelley confirmed that the last time he saw Oswald on Nov. 22 was prior to 12 Noon [7 H 390].

So, is Shelley more believable on this point....or is Lee Oswald the one who is telling the truth? (I think the answer is obvious.)

Bookhout does not exactly say Oswald claimed to have a conversation with Shelley. It says Oswald heard Shelley say something.

The photos show Oswald was off to one side standing perhaps 15-20 feet away from Shelley at the time of the shots. After the shots the people on the steps saw Gloria Calvery screaming on Elm that the President had been shot. Shelley on the steps could have reacted to hearing that. If Shelley said something to Frazier or Lovelady standing next to him to his right, his words would have carried in the direction of Oswald who could have heard everything Shelley said, before Shelley and Lovelady went down the steps.

That could be the reference of Oswald to having heard Shelley, even though he did not talk with him and even though Shelley may not have been aware Oswald was there due to the difference between Shelley looking into the sunlight and not noticing Oswald to the side in shadow. 

Fritz heard Oswald say he went out front with Shelley. Hosty heard Oswald say he went out to see the presidential parade. Bookhout heard Oswald say he heard Shelley say something. The photos show Oswald in a position to have heard Shelley say the comments Bookhout reported Oswald said he heard Shelley say.

[David Von Pein]

2 hours ago, Greg Doudna said:

Bookhout does not exactly say Oswald claimed to have a conversation with Shelley. It says Oswald heard Shelley say something.

The photos show Oswald was off to one side standing perhaps 15-20 feet away from Shelley at the time of the shots. After the shots the people on the steps saw Gloria Calvery screaming on Elm that the President had been shot. Shelley on the steps could have reacted to hearing that. If Shelley said something to Frazier or Lovelady standing next to him to his right, his words would have carried in the direction of Oswald who could have heard everything Shelley said, before Shelley and Lovelady went down the steps.

That could be the reference of Oswald to having heard Shelley, even though he did not talk with him and even though Shelley may not have been aware Oswald was there due to the difference between Shelley looking into the sunlight and not noticing Oswald to the side in shadow. 

Fritz heard Oswald say he went out front with Shelley. Hosty heard Oswald say he went out to see the presidential parade. Bookhout heard Oswald say he heard Shelley say something. The photos show Oswald in a position to have heard Shelley say the comments Bookhout reported Oswald said he heard Shelley say.

 

Greg,

All of the things you mentioned above are only possible because you've decided (on your own) that the fuzzy and indistinct images of Prayer Man in the Darnell Film are positively images of Lee Harvey Oswald. You made that bold declaration at this forum on Oct. 12, 2024, at 10:23 PM (EDT) when you made this highly-dubious claim:

"There is enough to make the identification. Prayer Man was Oswald, beyond reasonable doubt." -- G. Doudna

But without LHO being Prayer Person, we can pretty much know that Oswald could not possibly have heard William H. Shelley make any statements to anyone outside the building at around 12:30 to 12:32 PM on 11/22, because LHO was not outside the building to hear any such remarks by Shelley (even if Shelley did make them, which he did not, according to Shelley's own Warren Commission testimony).

Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude that Oswald was simply lying to Fritz/Bookhout/Hosty regarding all of the things he said about Bill Shelley.

Footnote....

I suppose it's possible, however, for a conspiracy believer (or, for that matter, even a Lone Assassin believer) to postulate the idea that as Oswald was leaving the TSBD Building at around 12:33 PM, he inadvertently heard Shelley say something to someone (if we discount the idea that Shelley had already left the area of the TSBD's front entrance by that time; but that's yet another subject).

But even if we were to assume that Oswald, just by pure chance and good fortune, had heard Bill Shelley say something to someone else at that precise time when Oswald was leaving the building but was still within earshot of Shelley's voice .... is it reasonable to think that Shelley would have been telling his employees as early as 12:33 PM (just three minutes after the shooting had occurred) that there would definitely be no more work done that day at the Book Depository? Wouldn't that have been a bit early for Shelley (or anyone) to have been making a decision like that?

You can argue, of course, that the bedlam and confusion and chaos caused by the Presidential assassination attempt was certainly a major enough event to cause William Shelley to almost immediately make such a "No More Work Today" decision.

But, still, 12:33 seems a bit early for such a decision, in my opinion, especially in view of the fact that President Kennedy had not even arrived at Parkland Hospital by that time, and therefore nobody at the Depository (as of 12:33) was aware of JFK's condition or, in fact, if he had positively been struck by the gunfire at all.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by David Von Pein

[Joe Bauer]

5 hours ago, Joseph McBride said:

I've never bought the cliché that Dealey Plaza

in reality seems smaller than it appears in photos and

films and videos. When I first went there in 1983,

its dimensions seemed exactly what I had expected

from seeing images of it many times (also including maps) and reading

a lot about it. I think that cliché applies to people who know little

about the place ahead of visiting it.

It's a cliche that has been repeated so many times over the years I assumed it was true.

Why would others even mention this subjectively interpretive geographical layout anomaly?

Okay, so now ( based on Joseph McBride's " been there" larger layout take ) I question my earlier statement about Dealey Plaza being smaller in size than photos depict which I admit was based solely on all those cliches stating such.

Nevertheless however, in regards to Doudna's Pierce Allman's shooting event reaction run and it's timeline, I still think it took more like 3 minutes to complete.

Edited 6 hours ago by Joe Bauer

[Greg Doudna]

6 hours ago, Joe Bauer said:

GD...I have never been to Dealey Plaza myself.

Like most everyone here on this forum however I feel like I know it well from viewing still photo shots and even video of it a thousand and one times. From every angle including aerial shots from hundreds of feet above.

I have read hundreds of times that the entire Dealey Plaza layout is much, much smaller in size than one would think judging this from photos only.

Still, I sense your timeline for Allman's sprinting effort is much too fast.

I've actually put myself in Allman's shoes and imagined his running to and fro as you described.

I don't know how old or athletic Allman was on 11,22,1963. Was he wearing street clothes and dress shoes? Was he carrying a reporter note pad or even a camera around his neck?

I am imagining myself running to all the places Allman ran and as a young, wiry, young man in tennis shoes.

I was dorky and walked and ran like a duck with my feet turned outward and my arms straight up like a girl but I could still waddle around pretty quickly when I had to.

This is totally objective but I still feel it would take at least twice as long for me to cover Allman's tracks.

The Grassy Knoll was decently steep versus flat and this would slow down an all-out sprint. Stopping at the Newmans and asking them a question might have only taken 6 to 8 seconds. Then a stop at the Grassy Knoll top for a look around another 10 seconds.

I think it would be remarkable to think any run from the Newmans to the TXSBD steps would be less than 20 to 30 seconds imo. The Newmans were way down Elm from the Book Depository if I recall.

You asked for other opinions...thought I'd throw mine in the mix.

Thanks Joe for this feedback. Actually I have 11 seconds (5 + 6) from the GK fence to the front steps of the TSBD. There was no return to the Newmans, he went from the Newmans to the GK fence, then from the GK fence dead run to the front steps. Its hard for me to tell for sure but in looking at photos including aerial of Dealey Plaza it might be, this is just a guess, maybe a 140 feet run from GK fence to the front steps TSBD, and it seems to me 11 seconds would be ballpark about right for a man running that distance. Allman says he ran full speed from there to the front steps. 

[David Von Pein]

33 minutes ago, Greg Doudna said:

this is just a guess, maybe a 140 feet run from GK fence to the front steps TSBD, and it seems to me 11 seconds would be ballpark about right for a man running that distance.

Since you brought up "ballpark" figures, maybe these stats can tie into this discussion....

Via the large number of analytic statistics used in Major League Baseball nowadays, they can easily calculate how fast a player can run from Point A to Point B (such as home plate to first base). And I noted tonight that Dodgers' superstar Shohei Ohtani, in 2022, averaged 4.07 seconds in running between home and first base. (He was with the Angels then, of course.)

That means that Ohtani could have gotten from the Knoll fence to the TSBD steps in 6.33 seconds (assuming your "140 feet" estimate is fairly accurate).

Now, of course, I'm certainly not saying that Mr. Pierce Allman of WFAA Radio in Dallas could run as fast as the fastest man in Major League Baseball (although I think a man on my team, the Cincinnati Reds, just might be even faster---Elly De La Cruz; but that's another debate altogether).

But if we just want to use "ballpark" type figures and start with the absolute FASTEST time that anybody on the planet could likely make such a Dealey Plaza sprint, then I'd say that your estimate of 11 seconds is probably a pretty decent guess for any guy with average running speed who isn't making $28-Million per season as the Los Angeles Dodgers Designated Hitter. 😁

Edited 5 hours ago by David Von Pein

[Paul Bacon]

9 hours ago, David Von Pein said:

Since we know Oswald left Dealey Plaza within minutes of the shooting (indicating an obvious desire on his part to get away from the scene of the assassination very quickly after President Kennedy was shot), why would LHO have wanted to delay his departure (i.e., "getaway") for even a few seconds by going back into a building that he likely thought could be sealed off by police at any moment?

 

Using this logic, the fact that he did go back into the building is indicative of (relative) innocence.

[Paul Bacon]

3 hours ago, David Von Pein said:

.... is it reasonable to think that Shelley would have been telling his employees as early as 12:33 PM (just three minutes after the shooting had occurred) that there would definitely be no more work done that day at the Book Depository? Wouldn't that have been a bit early for Shelley (or anyone) to have been making a decision like that?

Perhaps it wasn't a "decision" but a "no-brainer".  I imagine, with all the caos and confusion and the fact that there was an assassination attempt, many people would have realized the same thing at roughly the same time.

I do belive, though, that Oswald did have something more to do--at the theatre--and that's why he left.

Edited 3 hours ago by Paul Bacon
add italics for clarity