The Motorcade Puzzle

[Mark Tyler]

On 8/10/2021 at 7:31 PM, Chris Davidson said:

I believe you need to check your plat in relationship to the Elm St turn.

I've indicated with the vertical red stripes a difference in the radius.

The red horizontal line with the 4.68ft designation(front end of cars) is a difference indicator between where I would plot the Wiegman start and where you have it starting at z280. Your cars back end is your z270.

I have the mayors car at 16.25ft in length which is the spec given for that car from the manufacturer.

If this makes sense, I'll then convert the differences moving forward.

Do you mean that the animation map needs adjusting to shrink the corner down a little?  This looks like the HSCA survey you are using, so it's worth mentioning there are some disagreements between this, the Warren Commission survey, and the other ones folks have put together over the years.  Do you have any high resolution aerial photos from 1963 that might nail down the exact nature of the curve relative to the fixed landmarks?  I have seen some later photos of that corner, but there have probably been changes since 1963.  Here is CE699 which isn't the best resolution:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh17/pdf/WH17_CE_699.pdf

[Mark Tyler]

3 hours ago, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Hi Mark. I am interested in your review of witness testimony regarding gun shots. I have tried to research bullet speeds and distances in Deeley Plaza to assess whether a shot from two locations at different times could : 1. Sound like one shot to some people. 2. Sound like 2 shots to others (bang-bang). My conclusion is that it is possible and it might indicate where the shots came from. I think we are looking at around a 0.5 sec difference in the time a shot sound would reach one location to when it may have reached another. Can you find a correlation between people who heard 2 shots and their location in DP if you look at your two apparent one-shot, two-shot locations? A strong candidate for a shot is the South Knoll, near the underpass, which is quite a way from the TSBD.

 

I think visually depicting the locations of witnesses who heard single and double bangs on a map of Dealey Plaza would be very interesting, just in case it revealed a pattern.  When I get some free time I will look at doing something like this as I think it could be quite useful to know.  About 100 of the 400+ witnesses gave enough information to know roughly when they heard the shots, so there should be enough data to spot a pattern if there is one.

[Chris Davidson]

On 8/10/2021 at 11:31 AM, Chris Davidson said:

I believe you need to check your plat in relationship to the Elm St turn.

I've indicated with the vertical red stripes a difference in the radius.

The red horizontal line with the 4.68ft designation(front end of cars) is a difference indicator between where I would plot the Wiegman start and where you have it starting at z280. Your cars back end is your z270.

I have the mayors car at 16.25ft in length which is the spec given for that car from the manufacturer.

If this makes sense, I'll then convert the differences moving forward.

10.4mph - 8.6mph = 1.8mph x 1.47 = 2.646ft per sec x 1.8sec = 4.76ft = see graphic above.

2.646ft per sec/18.3 = .1445ft per frame

4.76ft/.1445ft per frame = 32.94frames = https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/25932-the-motorcade-puzzle/?do=findComment&comment=445523

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

On 8/10/2021 at 11:31 AM, Chris Davidson said:

I believe you need to check your plat in relationship to the Elm St turn.

I've indicated with the vertical red stripes a difference in the radius.

The red horizontal line with the 4.68ft designation(front end of cars) is a difference indicator between where I would plot the Wiegman start and where you have it starting at z280. Your cars back end is your z270.

I have the mayors car at 16.25ft in length which is the spec given for that car from the manufacturer.

If this makes sense, I'll then convert the differences moving forward.

Tightening your radius aligns both cars vertically but advances your mayors car approx 6.88ft.

[Chris Davidson]

13 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Tightening your radius aligns both cars vertically but advances your mayors car approx 6.88ft.

 

The speed increase starting ten frames earlier from the mayors car at z280(version2.1) vs. the mayors car at z270(version2.3): Refer to my two previous graphics for help.

10.4 - 7.8 = 2.6mph x 1.47 = 3.822 x 1.8 sec = 6.8796ft

2.6 x 1.47 = 3.822ft per sec/18.3 = .208ft per frame

6.8796ft/.208 = 33.07frames

Edited August 12, 2021 by Chris Davidson

[Mark Tyler]

On 8/12/2021 at 7:45 AM, Chris Davidson said:

10.4mph - 8.6mph = 1.8mph x 1.47 = 2.646ft per sec x 1.8sec = 4.76ft = see graphic above.

2.646ft per sec/18.3 = .1445ft per frame

4.76ft/.1445ft per frame = 32.94frames = https://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/25932-the-motorcade-puzzle/?do=findComment&comment=445523

 

 

Yes, I had the Mayor's car moving slightly faster in that part of the bend than the Presidential limo.  This is partly due to the speed constraints later due to the Mayor's car probably being at a standstill by Z447:

This drags up the speed somewhat after the start of the Wiegman film, followed by a short braking operation as they saw the chaos unfolding ahead.  In version 2.3 I have him peaking at about 13 MPH followed by him stopping at Z430.  With no film depicting this timeline it's rather tricky to be certain, but stopping the Mayor's car at Z410, Z430, or Z450 would change the speed, as well as the tightening of the vehicle cornering you mentioned earlier (which seems quite reasonable, although difficult to know with certainty due to the lack of clear films of that area at that time).

There is a trade off between speed and the line taken around the corner, as the tighter the turn the less distance is travelled, but also the slower the car must be travelling.  The bikes had the same issue, with the inner bikes being near 5 MPH, and the outer ones being near 10 MPH.

[Chris Davidson]

On 8/12/2021 at 12:27 AM, Chris Davidson said:

Tightening your radius aligns both cars vertically but advances your mayors car approx 6.88ft.

Do you believe a reasonable belief could be that cars in close proximity to the mayor's car would traverse the Wiegman film start location at the same speed as the limo? In this case, Wiegman's car.

In other words, within the motorcade the mayors car was sandwiched between the limo and Wiegman's car.

Why would I believe otherwise that the speed(8.6mph) of the limo, mayor's car and Wiegman's car would vary much as is portrayed by Wiegman's speed matching the limo speed at the appropriate location?

[Mark Tyler]

On 8/11/2021 at 7:29 PM, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Hi Mark. I am interested in your review of witness testimony regarding gun shots. I have tried to research bullet speeds and distances in Deeley Plaza to assess whether a shot from two locations at different times could : 1. Sound like one shot to some people. 2. Sound like 2 shots to others (bang-bang). My conclusion is that it is possible and it might indicate where the shots came from. I think we are looking at around a 0.5 sec difference in the time a shot sound would reach one location to when it may have reached another. Can you find a correlation between people who heard 2 shots and their location in DP if you look at your two apparent one-shot, two-shot locations? A strong candidate for a shot is the South Knoll, near the underpass, which is quite a way from the TSBD.

 

Eddy, I managed to map the witnesses reporting the first shot noises circa Z180-Z240 here:

Of the 400+ witnesses I studied, about 100 of them can be pinned down to hearing a shot in this rough timeframe thanks to them mentioning JFK reacting or the positions of the cars.  The witnesses who reported two shots around this time are in purple squares, with a single shot being yellow.  There aren't many double bangs, but there is one main cluster, with the centre of this being the Presidential limo (as identified by the large ellipse).  The other two minor areas are the bridge, and also the two cameramen Nix and Bronson on or near Main Street.

The most obvious pattern here is that about 90% of witnesses heard a single shot at the beginning of the shooting which means 90% of the witnesses don't accept the modern lone nut theory which requires an extra missed shot at Z160 or before.  Even in the 10% part, most say that the two shots were on top of each other with barely any time between them, which as far as I'm concerned consigns the very early missed shot theory to the trash can as it requires 3-5 seconds between those shots.

Over the weekend I will do the timeframe around Z313, which has dozens of witnesses reporting a double bang.

[Chris Davidson]

18 minutes ago, Chris Davidson said:

Do you believe a reasonable belief could be that cars in close proximity to the mayor's car would traverse the Wiegman film start location at the same speed as the limo? In this case, Wiegman's car.

In other words, within the motorcade the mayors car was sandwiched between the limo and Wiegman's car.

Why would I believe otherwise that the speed(8.6mph) of the limo, mayor's car and Wiegman's car would vary much as is portrayed by Wiegman's speed matching the limo speed at the appropriate location?

What I do believe is quite possible and highly probable is the mayors car traversed that same location at 8.6mph along with the limo and Wiegman's car.

8.6mph x 1.47 = 12.642ft per sec

12.642ft / 18.3 = .69ft per frame

6.88ft/.69ft per frame = 9.97frames

This difference matches the radius difference and therefore would set the start of the Wiegman film at extant z270 or ten frames earlier than extant z280.

Added on Edit: The plat key I'm using is 1" = 10ft - broken into 1/8 spans = 1.25ft

The difference in radius's previously supplied are:

3.75 x1.25ft = 4.68ft

5.5 x 1.25ft = 6.875ft

Edited August 13, 2021 by Chris Davidson

[Eddy Bainbridge]

1 hour ago, Mark Tyler said:

Eddy, I managed to map the witnesses reporting the first shot noises circa Z180-Z240 here:

Of the 400+ witnesses I studied, about 100 of them can be pinned down to hearing a shot in this rough timeframe thanks to them mentioning JFK reacting or the positions of the cars.  The witnesses who reported two shots around this time are in purple squares, with a single shot being yellow.  There aren't many double bangs, but there is one main cluster, with the centre of this being the Presidential limo (as identified by the large ellipse).  The other two minor areas are the bridge, and also the two cameramen Nix and Bronson on or near Main Street.

The most obvious pattern here is that about 90% of witnesses heard a single shot at the beginning of the shooting which means 90% of the witnesses don't accept the modern lone nut theory which requires an extra missed shot at Z160 or before.  Even in the 10% part, most say that the two shots were on top of each other with barely any time between them, which as far as I'm concerned consigns the very early missed shot theory to the trash can as it requires 3-5 seconds between those shots.

Over the weekend I will do the timeframe around Z313, which has dozens of witnesses reporting a double bang.

Hi Mark, that is terrifically interesting. I will study the map you've created and if I see any different to you. I'm going to experiment with potential shot locations to see where there may have been witnesses outside acoustic cones (widening out from the source of the blast and narrower with a silenced weapon) Look forward to the Z313 map. 

[John Butler]

Mark Tyler uses this Weigman frame.  I find it quite interesting.

Like almost everything in Dealey Plaza there are weird things to be seen if you look close.  First off, the Mayor's Car looks like a hardtop rather than a convertible.  The hardtop part is actually the front windshield of the Mercury Caliente against the background of the VP's chase car, a Mercury sedan.  No problem once thought about.

However, where are these vehicles on Elm Street?  Mark's animation has them at the upper part of Elm rather then the lower part.

   

The Weigman frame clearly shows (at least to me) they are below the steps from the parking lot in Dealey Plaza.  Or, is this like Altgens 6, an alleged wide angle photo showing the p. limo after the Stemmons sign at Z 255?  Is it another case of lying eyes?

And, down by the overpass is a vehicle dark in color.  There were only two dark colored vehicles in the first 12 vehicles in the parade.  The p. limo was midnight blue and the SS chase car was black and both of those were convertibles.  What I see down by the overpass could be the p. limo.  I don't see any SS men standing on the running boards.  So, it must be the p. limo.

The question I have here is how long was the Mayor's Car and the rest of the motorcade held up in the intersection of Elm and Houston.  Once Will Greer got the p. limo moving after the shots they left the Plaza very quickly.  Mark's animation has them, the Mayor's Car and the rest of the motorcade moving through the intersection without a stop.  This is contrary to the testimony of Dearie Cabell.  How long were they held up?  7 seconds?  10 seconds? or 14 seconds?  None of those times are very lengthy.  From Z 313-and afew frames after, how long would it take to leave the Plaza completely?   

From the Weigman frame they all appear to be moving together and not separated by the the first 10 cars and then after some time the rest of the motorcade.  OBTW, where is car 9 and car 10 in Mark's animation?  Shouldn't they be marked and why skip from vehicle 8 to vehicle 11?  Shouldn't use 9 and 10 just for vehicles and not something else?

Well, that's just some thoughts.  Let's move on to some more bizarre things.  The absence of the railroad workers on the overpass above Elm Street.  We've all seen the famous, I say infamous, Altgens 7 photo showing these fellows.  But, at the same time they are missing from this Weigman frame.

Right under the question mark on the bridge is what looks like a DPD officer, Foster, in a white hat.  That's where they were rather then over Elm Street.  It is too vague to argue about.  There are several other films and photos that show no railroad men on the bridge.  Among these are the Bell film, John Martin film, Emma Bond photo, Hughes film, and the Patsy Paschal film.  There maybe one or two others that I do not recall at this time.

Down on the sidewalk near one of the question marks appears to be a woman floating in the air with little or no shadow from her.  Behind her is a dark blob resembling a dog lying or the Newmans in the grass.  Can't be the Newmans they are up by the Stemmon sign.  Then there is a man, a woman, and a child with a bizarre shape behind them resembling what?  A blob?  Some menacing monster?  Just strange camera blobs where there should be people? 

The Weigman frame is strange.   

  

Edited August 13, 2021 by John Butler

[Mark Tyler]

23 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Do you believe a reasonable belief could be that cars in close proximity to the mayor's car would traverse the Wiegman film start location at the same speed as the limo? In this case, Wiegman's car.

In other words, within the motorcade the mayors car was sandwiched between the limo and Wiegman's car.

Why would I believe otherwise that the speed(8.6mph) of the limo, mayor's car and Wiegman's car would vary much as is portrayed by Wiegman's speed matching the limo speed at the appropriate location?

The general pattern of the vehicles would be the same: each of the cars would have decelerated into the turn, and then accelerated out of the turn at a certain point.  However, the exact speed going in, out, and the point of acceleration would vary from car to car.  The exact point you referenced for the Presidential limo and the camera car is indeed the same at about 8-9 MPH, but other cars like the VP car and it's SS follow up seem to be a little quicker at 9-10 MPH.  It's not a big difference, and both seem reasonable guides for what the other cars must have done.  With the Mayor's car being directly behind the VP SS follow up travelling at 9-10 MPH, that must also be a reasonable speed for the Mayor's car as the driver would have been looking very closely ahead as the car in front accelerated away.

Sadly, with no other cameras recording this area at the same time we can't really be certain of the exact speed of the Mayor's car at all points on the bend.  The only certainty is that we see where the Mayor's car is at Z180 in the Zapruder film, and also Z447 in the Wiegman film about 14.6 seconds later.  In the animation the computer program decelerates the car at Z180, and starts accelerating it soon after such that we don't see it in the Altgens 6 photo at Z255, and it's then in the right place to be stopped at Z447.  By slowing down the car during Z180-Z280, you will necessarily speed it up later in that sequence towards Z447 (unreasonably pushing it over 15 MPH), or it creates a timing gap in the Zapruder film.

[Mark Tyler]

22 hours ago, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Hi Mark, that is terrifically interesting. I will study the map you've created and if I see any different to you. I'm going to experiment with potential shot locations to see where there may have been witnesses outside acoustic cones (widening out from the source of the blast and narrower with a silenced weapon) Look forward to the Z313 map. 

Here is the map of witnesses reporting one or two shots in the vicinity of Z313:

Compared to the first shot(s) circa Z225, there are far more witnesses who heard double bangs.  Just like with the first map, the main group of witnesses who heard this double bang were situated on Elm Street or the bridge over Elm Street (almost a straight line from the TSBD or Dal-Tex buildings to the bridge I would say).  A handful in the Houston and Main Street area heard a double bang, but not many.

The final piece of this work will be the much smaller group of people who heard a shot or shots well after Z330, which I hope to complete by the end of the weekend.

[Mark Tyler]

21 hours ago, John Butler said:

Like almost everything in Dealey Plaza there are weird things to be seen if you look close.  First off, the Mayor's Car looks like a hardtop rather than a convertible.  The hardtop part is actually the front windshield of the Mercury Caliente against the background of the VP's chase car, a Mercury sedan.  No problem once thought about.

In the Wiegman frame, the hard top car just about to pass Hargis is the VP SS follow up car.  The continuity and synchronization of this works perfectly in the animation.

 

21 hours ago, John Butler said:

However, where are these vehicles on Elm Street?  Mark's animation has them at the upper part of Elm rather then the lower part.

The animation frame you quoted was from Z368, but the Wiegman frame was over 4 seconds later at Z447 which is why the cars had all moved down Elm Street a little bit more.

 

21 hours ago, John Butler said:

The question I have here is how long was the Mayor's Car and the rest of the motorcade held up in the intersection of Elm and Houston.  Once Will Greer got the p. limo moving after the shots they left the Plaza very quickly.  Mark's animation has them, the Mayor's Car and the rest of the motorcade moving through the intersection without a stop.  This is contrary to the testimony of Dearie Cabell.  How long were they held up?  7 seconds?  10 seconds? or 14 seconds?  None of those times are very lengthy.  From Z 313-and afew frames after, how long would it take to leave the Plaza completely?   

The Mayor's car didn't stop for more than a few seconds, but the longer delay came thanks to the camera cars which were very sluggish to get away as several cameramen got out of the cars and took films and photos before returning to their cars.

 

21 hours ago, John Butler said:

The Weigman frame is strange.

The Wiegman frame is a little blurry due to Wiegman running fast down Elm Street so I wouldn't worry too much about some of the odd visual artefacts and lack of sharp detail.

[Mark Tyler]

On 8/13/2021 at 8:30 PM, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Hi Mark, that is terrifically interesting. I will study the map you've created and if I see any different to you. I'm going to experiment with potential shot locations to see where there may have been witnesses outside acoustic cones (widening out from the source of the blast and narrower with a silenced weapon) Look forward to the Z313 map. 

Here is the map of witnesses reporting one or two shots well after the head shot:

Compared to the previous maps, far fewer witnesses are certain they heard shots during this timeframe, although enough are adamant that shots were fired around Z360-Z400 to accept this as corroborated.  A few seemed to hear a pair of shots, such as Mary Moorman and Jean Hill who gave very clear interviews on the day explaining that sequence of events.  The dataset is too small to spot any clear patterns, although once again Elm Street is the main area of these witnesses.

One thing that is very noticeable here is how no witnesses in the Presidential limo, SS follow up car, or VP car actually heard this shot or shots.  My view is that this is due to a couple of reasons:

• A very loud siren was being emitted from the Secret Service follow up car which distracted enough people who were in the immediate vicinity (judging from the map nobody within 30 feet of the siren heard the shot(s)).
• The stressful nature of events startled many people, especially those who witnessed the head shot which distracted them from the final shot(s) (many bystanders literally turned and ran just after Z313, underlining the horrific nature of the events they had just witnessed).

By contrast, those witnesses further away from the siren who weren't terrorised were able to report the final shot(s) in the sequence.  The best example of this were those in Camera Car #3 who all reported that the final shot was fired as they began their turn onto Elm Street, so they must have been very close to the TSBD gun and well away from the siren or the chaos unfolding on Elm Street.  In particular Malcolm Couch gave enough detail in his statements to identify where the car was located when he heard the first shot fired around Z190-Z220; the second shot near Z313; and the final shot around Z360-Z400.   Thanks to the Hughes film and the Zapruder film we have a very accurate measure of where the camera cars were at those times which makes it fairly easy to convert the witness statements to a timeline of when the shots were fired.

Studying the raw data from over 400+ witnesses is a little daunting and rather hard to digest in tabular form, so many thanks to Eddy for suggesting the idea of looking for patterns on the map regarding the double bangs and witness locations as I think it makes it easier to understand the very complex crime scene.