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The Motorcade Puzzle


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23 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Wiegman-Start.png

Well spotted Chris, I changed the start of the Wiegman film to Z280 as I found it smoothed out the deceleration of the Mayor's car as it turned onto Elm Street Z133-Z220 (and then the acceleration that followed a few seconds later on Elm after Z250).  This slightly slows the film frame rate down to 29 FPS from the 31 FPS which I had before for the Z295 start of the Wiegman film, but it's still within the 27-31 FPS range which is my visual estimate of the true Wiegman film rate.  If you think this causes any problems let me know the details and I will check these workings again.

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16 hours ago, Stu Wexler said:

Mark:  is there any room for it to be any other officer other than McClain as a potential source for the recording?

Hi Stu.  Apart from McLain, the other bikes in Dealey Plaza were in even worse positions to record the audio on the Houston/Elm Street turn:

  • The presidential limo bikes were well down Elm Street so it couldn't be them.
  • Officer Baker was on the wrong side of the road and was nowhere near the turn onto Elm Street, just like McLain (as proven by the Hughes film circa Z190).
  • The other bikes were still on Main Street (Courson, Haygood, etc), or possibly just turning onto Houston Street when the shooting started.
  • One or two three wheeled bikes were on Main Street, but they were nowhere near where they need to be on the Houston/Elm turn (as proven by the Hughes film showing Houston Street bereft of any bikes just before the Zapruder film started at Z133).

The HSCA scenario, or the second animation which I mentioned in my previous post, is where I explored what Don Thomas and others think happened regarding McLain and Courson.  Sadly I couldn't make the timing and continuity work unless McLain roared forward along Houston Street at 30 MPH from 10-15 MPH on the Main/Houston bend, so I think there is no chance that the stuck open mic on the bike was in Dealey Plaza.

Last year someone suggested that the microphone that recorded the gunshot impulses onto the dictabelt could have been in Dealey Plaza but in the Mayors car or the Secret Service #2 follow up car (with the noisy bike with the stuck open mic being elsewhere in Dallas).  I initially thought this might be possible as the animation shows those two cars are in roughly the right position on the corner turning onto Elm Street from Z175-Z313 during the shooting up to the head shot.  For this to be correct then a police microphone would need to be in one of the cars and switched on, which I don't think we can know either way for certain.

However, I then realised that in the seconds after the head shot at Z313, Sam Kinney in the Secret Service #1 follow up car started a very loud siren which many other witnesses reported (most notably Marilyn Sitzman who said it was the loudest thing she heard that day).  As we all know by listening to the dictabelt recording, the only audible sirens appear 3-4 minutes after the alleged shots which means that whatever was recorded at the time of the assassination could not have come from any microphone in Dealey Plaza as the siren does not appear.

Anyway, that's my current view, but as always I'm very open to re-evaluating things if anyone thinks I have made a mistake or there is a better explanation for the evidence.

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On 7/30/2021 at 9:06 AM, Mark Tyler said:

Well spotted Chris, I changed the start of the Wiegman film to Z280 as I found it smoothed out the deceleration of the Mayor's car as it turned onto Elm Street Z133-Z220 (and then the acceleration that followed a few seconds later on Elm after Z250).  This slightly slows the film frame rate down to 29 FPS from the 31 FPS which I had before for the Z295 start of the Wiegman film, but it's still within the 27-31 FPS range which is my visual estimate of the true Wiegman film rate.  If you think this causes any problems let me know the details and I will check these workings again.

It's helping me clarify the (almost) exact differences between two competing scenarios.

33 frames (+/-) 1 frame

Frame Markers for example: 100,133,166,200

33Frames.png

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On 8/4/2021 at 9:43 AM, Chris Davidson said:

It's helping me clarify the (almost) exact differences between two competing scenarios.

33 frames (+/-) 1 frame

Frame Markers for example: 100,133,166,200

33Frames.png

33 Zapruder film frames (or close to two seconds) does seem to be the gap between my Wiegman film analysis and what Dale Myers concluded in his 2007-2010 Epipolar report here:

https://www.jfkfiles.com/jfk/html/acoustics.htm

For those reading this who don't know about what I call the "Wiegman Timing Anomaly", Myers said that the Wiegman film was recorded at 24 FPS (based on the assumption that 16mm film cameras typically used that rate in the 1960's).  However, I have concluded that due to the measurements of the Mayor's car position I think it was closer to 29 FPS.

Connecting the two second gap to the Towner film frame rate issues is an interesting coincidence that I hadn't noticed before.  The other thing worth mentioning is that the Towner frame rate analysis is also locked into the Hughes film thanks to a 4.8 second segment which ended here:

Hughes-Houston-End.png

Chris, is there a similar problem with the Hughes film at 18 FPS, or are you saying the Hughes/Wiegman films are authentic and that the problem of a two second gap is just with the Towner film and the Zapruder film?

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42 minutes ago, Mark Tyler said:

For those reading this who don't know about what I call the "Wiegman Timing Anomaly", Myers said that the Wiegman film was recorded at 24 FPS (based on the assumption that 16mm film cameras typically used that rate in the 1960's).  However, I have concluded that due to the measurements of the Mayor's car position I think it was closer to 29 FPS.

 

 

 

Mark,

Sometime in the distant past(I'll see if I can find it again) I supplied a graphic that showed the turning radius/position for the mayor's car was tighter than what you were showing, when you had the Wiegman film starting/syncing at extant z295.

You now have the Wiegman film starting/syncing at extant z280.

The supplied graphic shows you tightened up the turning radius of the mayor's car.

In doing this, your Wiegman frame rate dropped.

If an even tighter radius exists, does this create another Wiegman frame rate reduction in your opinion?

Tyler-280-295-Radius-Change.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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On 8/5/2021 at 7:55 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Mark,

Sometime in the distant past(I'll see if I can find it again) I supplied a graphic that showed the turning radius/position for the mayor's car was tighter than what you were showing, when you had the Wiegman film starting/syncing at extant z295.

You now have the Wiegman film starting/syncing at extant z280.

The supplied graphic shows you tightened up the turning radius of the mayor's car.

In doing this, your Wiegman frame rate dropped.

If an even tighter radius exists, does this create another Wiegman frame rate reduction in your opinion?

Tyler-280-295-Radius-Change.gif

 

 

 

 

 

That's right, in the earlier animation version I had a wider turn where the cars all sat in the middle of the centre lane, but I realised that most of the cars took the turn by being closer to the left hand white line at the beginning of Elm Street.  In other words they cut the corner ever so slightly, rather than following a perfect circular arc.

The exact position of the Mayor's car is tricky to judge as we don't see a white line for several seconds into the Wiegman film, so the best view is probably from the Dorman film here:

Dorman-Mayors-Car-774.png

It's not completely clear from this slightly blurry frame where the white line is, but a slightly earlier frames suggests it's just behind the car, but not hidden by very much (maybe the horizontal white area just behind the window frames?).

There could be a slightly tighter radius if the car started turning slightly earlier on Houston Street, so anywhere near Z270 could work for the beginning of the Wiegman film.  Z270 would mean a Wiegman film rate of about 27.3 FPS.  Anyone can do this calculation as follows:

Wiegman FPS = 264 / ((447 - START) / 18.3)

264 = Wiegman frames elapsed since frame 1 (to match Z447 with W265).
447 = Z-film frame sync point with Wiegman 265 (based on the Presidential limo location being visible in both film frames, triangulated with the lamppost).
18.3 = Average Z-Film FPS.
START = Zapruder start frame synchronized to Wiegman frame 1.

For example, using START=246 results in the 24.0 FPS that Dale Myers used.

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Mark Tyler--

I just reviewed your webpage, and I can see a thorough read will take more than one sitting, or a just a few days. Tremendous presentation. 

Anyway, though, I am puzzled why you contend Governor Connally being shot before he does a 180-degree turn in his seat. 

That is not how the Governor and his wife recall the timeline. JBC says he was just turning forward (from having turned around in his seat) when he was struck. My take is that this is borne out by the Z film. 

My take is JBC was shot from the rear about Z-296.

Dr. Robert Shaw has puzzled how JBC could have been shot through the dorsal (non-palm) side of his wrist, if the bullet came through his chest first. Try touching the dorsal side of your wrist flat against your chest. That is an interesting question too.

Also, what about the possibility of silencers, pneumatic weapons, or simultaneous shots? 

Edited by Benjamin Cole
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On 8/7/2021 at 2:27 AM, Mark Tyler said:

frames?).

There could be a slightly tighter radius if the car started turning slightly earlier on Houston Street, so anywhere near Z270 could work for the beginning of the Wiegman film.  Z270 would mean a Wiegman film rate of about 27.3 FPS.  Anyone can do this calculation as follows:

Wiegman FPS = 264 / ((447 - START) / 18.3)

264 = Wiegman frames elapsed since frame 1 (to match Z447 with W265).
447 = Z-film frame sync point with Wiegman 265 (based on the Presidential limo location being visible in both film frames, triangulated with the lamppost).
18.3 = Average Z-Film FPS.
START = Zapruder start frame synchronized to Wiegman frame 1.

For example, using START=246 results in the 24.0 FPS that Dale Myers used.

Wiegman had his camera fully wound before he started shooting the 36.5 seconds of the z sync segment. In essence, he shot all but approx 1/2 second of footage before a rewind was necessary. imo

16mm film = 40frames per foot x 22ft per full wind = 880 frames

36.5sec x 24 fps = 876 frames

He stopped filming after Hester entered the colonnade but is picked up by Bell/Couch rising and then starting his run down the knoll to film the Newmans. The time difference connecting the Wiegman rise from Bell/Couch is 1.7 seconds.

I truly don't believe Wiegman was winding his film as he was starting to stand and head down the knoll to film the Newmans.

Nor do I believe during his run down the knoll he was winding his camera.

Nor do I believe when he reached the Newmans that he rewound his camera.

I do believe he had his camera fully ready to shoot and shot 36.5 seconds of a 37 second limitation for that rewind.

The network television version has a total of 1095 frames(converted from 24fps to 30fps) for the 36.5 second version.

30 x 36.5 = 1095

That version is a 3/2 pulldown result.

In essence, for every 4 real(progressive) frames that existed, an extra one was created.

4/5 = .8

1095 x .8 = 876 frames

Yes, Myers has the Wiegman start sync wrong at z246, not the frame rate. imo

36:15 below is reflective of a 30fps clock, so 15/30 = .5 second

BH-70-Filmo.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 8/8/2021 at 3:28 PM, Benjamin Cole said:

Mark Tyler--

I just reviewed your webpage, and I can see a thorough read will take more than one sitting, or a just a few days. Tremendous presentation. 

Hi Benjamin, I hope you find the work useful.  Having a complete real-time motorcade reconstruction based on all of the photos, films, and witness statements helps to explore the various theories regarding the crime scene.  In some cases it exposes some of the mistakes that witnesses made in their statements such as timing, but in general most of the witnesses seem to be correct regarding what they saw and heard.  Many of the contradictions between the witness statements can be resolved by understanding that some were distracted and missed the first or last shots.  After accounting for that, I noticed things started to fit together a bit more.

On 8/8/2021 at 3:28 PM, Benjamin Cole said:

Anyway, though, I am puzzled why you contend Governor Connally being shot before he does a 180-degree turn in his seat. 

That is not how the Governor and his wife recall the timeline. JBC says he was just turning forward (from having turned around in his seat) when he was struck. My take is that this is borne out by the Z film. 

The exact timeline of Connally's wounding is tricky to judge due to the subjective nature of photo-analysis, but the first time I see him moving abnormally is about Z225-Z230 at the same time JFK raises his arms so I suspect they were both hit at roughly the same time.  Have a look at a slowed down Zapruder film to see them both react at the same time, with Connally's hat moving upwards rapidly and his whole body seems to twist and flinch with discomfort:

Z193-Z241-JFK-JBC.gif

Whether this is a single bullet, or a pair of different shots I'm not sure, but the downward angle of 20-25 degrees through Connally does seem to match the sixth floor window perfectly if the wound occurred Z190-Z220 as the film would imply.  The thing that baffles me is the flat trajectory through JFK, as this doesn't really fit Connally's wounds unless JFK was hunched forward somehow (which looks unlikely judging from the Zapruder film).

As I recall, when Connally studied the Zapruder film frames before giving testimony to the Warren Commission he said he thought he was hit by frame Z230, so this might be worth considering.  Connally's testimony is very interesting regarding the shots, as he insists that he wasn't hit by the first shot, but was hit about two seconds later.  Here is a quote from his Warren Commission testimony which underlines this rapidity:

"I knew it when I just looked down and I was covered with blood, and the thought immediately passed through my mind that there were either two or three people involved or more in this or someone was shooting with an automatic rifle. These were just thoughts that went through my mind because of the rapidity of these two, of the first shot plus the blow that I took,"

4H133 - https://aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh4/html/WC_Vol4_0071a.htm

If this is correct then Connally is telling us that there was more than one gunman.  Alternatively he may have been hit by the first shot, but suffered some kind of delayed reaction due to the shock from his injuries.  Either way it's hard to match his statements with the popular modern lone nut theory which involves a missed shot fired at Z160 or before, followed by a 3-5 second delay before the single bullet hits the victims.

Nellie Connally's statement also challenges the modern lone nut theory as she said the first shot hit JFK, and that the second shot came soon after, but before the head shot that we see at Z313.  As we see from the Zapruder film, all of this happened in the five seconds during Z225-Z313, so three shots in five shots is impossible for the clunky bolt action gun found in the TSBD (not forgetting that many witnesses also heard another shot well after the head shot, which would be a fourth shot).

On 8/8/2021 at 3:28 PM, Benjamin Cole said:

My take is JBC was shot from the rear about Z-296.

Dr. Robert Shaw has puzzled how JBC could have been shot through the dorsal (non-palm) side of his wrist, if the bullet came through his chest first. Try touching the dorsal side of your wrist flat against your chest. That is an interesting question too.

I haven't studied the medical side too deeply, but from what I have heard from other researchers is that it might have been possible for the wrist wound to have occurred from the shrapnel which emerged from JFK's head and was projected forward in various directions.  It's probably impossible to know with certainty, but maybe this explains why CE399 was not damaged more, i.e. it didn't actually hit the wrist bone and it simply went into the thigh directly from the chest wound?  Judging from Z312 of the Zapruder film Connally's right hand was exposed and facing upwards at the time of the head shot so it's certainly possible for the wrist wound to have occurred then.

On 8/8/2021 at 3:28 PM, Benjamin Cole said:

Also, what about the possibility of silencers, pneumatic weapons, or simultaneous shots? 

I'm fairly open minded about exploring different theories to explain the crime scene evidence.  Any theory that fits with the known facts and has no loose ends is well worth considering.  A second gunman is quite possible, and judging from the witness survey I compiled, about 60% of those who gave clear information suggested that at least two of the shots were fired in rapid succession (within a second or two, which is impossible from the gun in the TSBD).  The majority of these witnesses mentioned that this double bang was towards the end of the gunfire, although a few did hear a double bang at the beginning.

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On 8/8/2021 at 8:15 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Wiegman had his camera fully wound before he started shooting the 36.5 seconds of the z sync segment. In essence, he shot all but approx 1/2 second of footage before a rewind was necessary. imo

16mm film = 40frames per foot x 22ft per full wind = 880 frames

36.5sec x 24 fps = 876 frames

He stopped filming after Hester entered the colonnade but is picked up by Bell/Couch rising and then starting his run down the knoll to film the Newmans. The time difference connecting the Wiegman rise from Bell/Couch is 1.7 seconds.

I truly don't believe Wiegman was winding his film as he was starting to stand and head down the knoll to film the Newmans.

Nor do I believe during his run down the knoll he was winding his camera.

Nor do I believe when he reached the Newmans that he rewound his camera.

I do believe he had his camera fully ready to shoot and shot 36.5 seconds of a 37 second limitation for that rewind.

The network television version has a total of 1095 frames(converted from 24fps to 30fps) for the 36.5 second version.

30 x 36.5 = 1095

That version is a 3/2 pulldown result.

In essence, for every 4 real(progressive) frames that existed, an extra one was created.

4/5 = .8

1095 x .8 = 876 frames

Yes, Myers has the Wiegman start sync wrong at z246, not the frame rate. imo

36:15 below is reflective of a 30fps clock, so 15/30 = .5 second

BH-70-Filmo.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This camera data is an interesting reference, thanks for sharing it.  So it looks like the 36.5 seconds of footage Wiegman took was just about as much as he could get without winding the camera back up (37 seconds).  This might explain why the last couple of items were so short, as he desperately tried to use up the remaining frames before the camera spring was completely unwound.

I tend to agree with you that he would have done the whole sequence on a single wind as he probably didn't have time to crank it up again.

Did you try speeding up the Wiegman film to account for the 29 FPS estimation based on the Mayor's car position? (adding an extra 20% of speed to your media player should do the trick)  I find the film speed at 29 FPS to be more natural, such as the people at the end running and Charles Hester jumping up.  At 24 FPS the speed feels a little sluggish and unnatural.

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2 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

Hi Benjamin, I hope you find the work useful.  Having a complete real-time motorcade reconstruction based on all of the photos, films, and witness statements helps to explore the various theories regarding the crime scene.  In some cases it exposes some of the mistakes that witnesses made in their statements such as timing, but in general most of the witnesses seem to be correct regarding what they saw and heard.  Many of the contradictions between the witness statements can be resolved by understanding that some were distracted and missed the first or last shots.  After accounting for that, I noticed things started to fit together a bit more.

The exact timeline of Connally's wounding is tricky to judge due to the subjective nature of photo-analysis, but the first time I see him moving abnormally is about Z225-Z230 at the same time JFK raises his arms so I suspect they were both hit at roughly the same time.  Have a look at a slowed down Zapruder film to see them both react at the same time, with Connally's hat moving upwards rapidly and his whole body seems to twist and flinch with discomfort:

Z193-Z241-JFK-JBC.gif

Whether this is a single bullet, or a pair of different shots I'm not sure, but the downward angle of 20-25 degrees through Connally does seem to match the sixth floor window perfectly if the wound occurred Z190-Z220 as the film would imply.  The thing that baffles me is the flat trajectory through JFK, as this doesn't really fit Connally's wounds unless JFK was hunched forward somehow (which looks unlikely judging from the Zapruder film).

As I recall, when Connally studied the Zapruder film frames before giving testimony to the Warren Commission he said he thought he was hit by frame Z230, so this might be worth considering.  Connally's testimony is very interesting regarding the shots, as he insists that he wasn't hit by the first shot, but was hit about two seconds later.  Here is a quote from his Warren Commission testimony which underlines this rapidity:

"I knew it when I just looked down and I was covered with blood, and the thought immediately passed through my mind that there were either two or three people involved or more in this or someone was shooting with an automatic rifle. These were just thoughts that went through my mind because of the rapidity of these two, of the first shot plus the blow that I took,"

4H133 - https://aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh4/html/WC_Vol4_0071a.htm

If this is correct then Connally is telling us that there was more than one gunman.  Alternatively he may have been hit by the first shot, but suffered some kind of delayed reaction due to the shock from his injuries.  Either way it's hard to match his statements with the popular modern lone nut theory which involves a missed shot fired at Z160 or before, followed by a 3-5 second delay before the single bullet hits the victims.

Nellie Connally's statement also challenges the modern lone nut theory as she said the first shot hit JFK, and that the second shot came soon after, but before the head shot that we see at Z313.  As we see from the Zapruder film, all of this happened in the five seconds during Z225-Z313, so three shots in five shots is impossible for the clunky bolt action gun found in the TSBD (not forgetting that many witnesses also heard another shot well after the head shot, which would be a fourth shot).

I haven't studied the medical side too deeply, but from what I have heard from other researchers is that it might have been possible for the wrist wound to have occurred from the shrapnel which emerged from JFK's head and was projected forward in various directions.  It's probably impossible to know with certainty, but maybe this explains why CE399 was not damaged more, i.e. it didn't actually hit the wrist bone and it simply went into the thigh directly from the chest wound?  Judging from Z312 of the Zapruder film Connally's right hand was exposed and facing upwards at the time of the head shot so it's certainly possible for the wrist wound to have occurred then.

I'm fairly open minded about exploring different theories to explain the crime scene evidence.  Any theory that fits with the known facts and has no loose ends is well worth considering.  A second gunman is quite possible, and judging from the witness survey I compiled, about 60% of those who gave clear information suggested that at least two of the shots were fired in rapid succession (within a second or two, which is impossible from the gun in the TSBD).  The majority of these witnesses mentioned that this double bang was towards the end of the gunfire, although a few did hear a double bang at the beginning.

" It's probably impossible to know with certainty, but maybe this explains why CE399 was not damaged more, i.e. it didn't actually hit the wrist bone and it simply went into the thigh directly from the chest wound?"

My take is that CE 399 was bogus, fraudulently entered into the evidentiary record at the FBI lab. Have you not read the excellent work by Tink Thompson, Gary Aguilar and others? 

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On 7/30/2021 at 9:06 AM, Mark Tyler said:

Well spotted Chris, I changed the start of the Wiegman film to Z280 as I found it smoothed out the deceleration of the Mayor's car as it turned onto Elm Street Z133-Z220 (and then the acceleration that followed a few seconds later on Elm after Z250).  This slightly slows the film frame rate down to 29 FPS from the 31 FPS which I had before for the Z295 start of the Wiegman film, but it's still within the 27-31 FPS range which is my visual estimate of the true Wiegman film rate.  If you think this causes any problems let me know the details and I will check these workings again.

I believe you need to check your plat in relationship to the Elm St turn.

I've indicated with the vertical red stripes a difference in the radius.

The red horizontal line with the 4.68ft designation(front end of cars) is a difference indicator between where I would plot the Wiegman start and where you have it starting at z280. Your cars back end is your z270.

I have the mayors car at 16.25ft in length which is the spec given for that car from the manufacturer.

If this makes sense, I'll then convert the differences moving forward.

Tyler-Elm-St-Turn.png

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On 8/9/2021 at 10:03 PM, Mark Tyler said:

 

 

Hi Mark. I am interested in your review of witness testimony regarding gun shots. I have tried to research bullet speeds and distances in Deeley Plaza to assess whether a shot from two locations at different times could : 1. Sound like one shot to some people. 2. Sound like 2 shots to others (bang-bang). My conclusion is that it is possible and it might indicate where the shots came from. I think we are looking at around a 0.5 sec difference in the time a shot sound would reach one location to when it may have reached another. Can you find a correlation between people who heard 2 shots and their location in DP if you look at your two apparent one-shot, two-shot locations? A strong candidate for a shot is the South Knoll, near the underpass, which is quite a way from the TSBD.

 

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On 8/10/2021 at 12:52 AM, Benjamin Cole said:

" It's probably impossible to know with certainty, but maybe this explains why CE399 was not damaged more, i.e. it didn't actually hit the wrist bone and it simply went into the thigh directly from the chest wound?"

My take is that CE 399 was bogus, fraudulently entered into the evidentiary record at the FBI lab. Have you not read the excellent work by Tink Thompson, Gary Aguilar and others? 

I have indeed read things like the Thompson/Aguilar article here, referencing some interesting interviews with witnesses regarding the original bullet found on the stretcher:

https://history-matters.com/essays/frameup/EvenMoreMagical/EvenMoreMagical.htm

Looking at the issue of the first shot or two, I do find it very difficult to fully explain the events we see in the Zapruder film relative to the victim injuries, and CE399.  The single bullet theory has a number of strengths, but it also has problems regarding the trajectory and why CE399 wasn't damaged more after breaking so many bones.

Did employees of the FBI subvert the investigation?  Of course, the HSCA proved this by getting James Hosty to confess to destroying Oswald's threatening note, presumably to avoid the negative attention that it would attract (i.e. why didn't the FBI do something about Oswald and his subversive threats before the President drove past his place of work?).  Who knows where else this may have happened in this case to avoid embarrassment?

In general I feel we are missing a piece or two of the jigsaw, probably due to the inadequate autopsy and the rather haphazard investigation.  Two commonly discussed options I have heard on each side of the debate are:

  • Lone nut argument:  JFK had a curious slouch due to waving (and possibly his back problem), which explains the trajectory from his back to throat wounds coming from the sixth floor window.  CE399 is authentic and wasn't damaged more due to being slowed down by going through JFK first before hitting bones in John Connally at a greatly reduced speed.
  • Conspiracy argument:  The flatter vertical trajectory through JFK is explained by the bullet coming from a lower source such as the Dal-Tex building (perhaps hinted at by the arrests there soon after the shooting, e.g. Jim Braden).  CE399 is a red herring due to being fraudulently introduced when the authorities didn't want to acknowledge that a conspiracy occurred.

Sadly both seem rather moot as it's impossible to prove either with any certainty, but I suspect the truth is close to one of these two options.

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